Again a war of attrition? Thoughts on the new tactics of the Ukrainian Armed Forces
Once upon a time, a long time ago, I learned to play chess. That was the time. Soviet world champions and so on. And in order not to think too much about creating some traps and complex compositions, I followed what seemed to me the easiest path. I simply repeated my opponent's moves. And it quickly turned out that, unlike my opponent, I had no moves left to repeat. My opponent gracefully drove me into a corner and...
It was then, in an ordinary city park, that I received my first lesson in strategy. Precisely strategies. The old man, and then everyone who was 50 plus was an old man to me, pointed to the board and said that I would never win like that. The only option is if I first agree with my opponent to win.
But then something else struck me. You will never win simply because your opponent will always be one move ahead!
I see approximately the same thing today in the Northeast Military District zone.
After the failure of the 2023 campaign, the military leadership of Ukraine decides to repeat the actions of the Russian army when organizing defense in the spring and summer of this year. The Ukrainian Armed Forces must go on the defensive. In this case, the main task becomes “maximum losses for Russia.”
I wonder why?
The task of taking something from the Russian troops at any cost, as I have already repeated many times, is not worth it. Defeat the enemy, inflict losses in such a volume that would not allow organizing a serious defense, cut off supply and rotation routes, drive the enemy into a cauldron, yes. Climb across an open field towards machine guns and artillery shells? No.
It’s not for nothing that an innovation appeared during the SVO. Meat grinder! The way Ukrainian commanders organize defense today is a meat grinder. Soldiers and officers on both sides understand this. Throwing a fresh unit into a support worker who has been processing artillery for a week is the height of stupidity. It is clear that within a day or two the attacking units will be reinforced tanks, UAVs, artillery and other necessary means and will simply demolish the support tower with fire.
I cannot say that in Kyiv, and even in Brussels and Washington, there is no understanding of the prospects for the development of events if this practice continues. Everyone there understands, but the stupidity of the “smeared counter-offensive” in several directions has led to a situation where only those same men who were caught on the streets and simply thrown into the trenches without much preparation can somehow detain the Russians...
Hence, as I have repeatedly pointed out, all the talk about possible negotiations, about the Korean option, about freezing the conflict, and so on. This is another option for suspending hostilities, which the Ukrainian Armed Forces needs like air. It takes time to create at least some semblance of defense in the rear.
Any officer knows that a retreat is not a drape, but a tactical maneuver with the aim of retreating to pre-prepared positions. But the Ukrainian Armed Forces have few such positions. And these are far from the same equipped oporniks that the Russians take now. Most often these are positions “from stories World War II." Trenches, minefields, artillery positions, etc. Even the “dragon’s teeth”, which were repeatedly ridiculed in the Ukrainian press, are used.
The main thing is that more Ukrainians remain alive
Probably, the above words of one of the generals of the Ukrainian Armed Forces are a balm for the soul of the mothers, wives, and children of the Ukrainian Armed Forces fighters. War, unfortunately, does not happen without losses on both sides. But what is happening in the Armed Forces of Ukraine forces Ukrainians to avoid meeting with the military in every possible way, even in the deep rear.
The understanding that, with a high probability, the next “volunteer” will return home, at best, in a coffin, is no longer even discussed. This is a fact that is known to any resident of Ukraine. And suddenly “so that more Ukrainians remain alive.” Alas, but this, according to the Ukrainian command, is in the future. Not now, but later, when the plan is implemented.
I read an interesting article in one of the German publications, just related to the new strategy of the Ukrainian Armed Forces. Just a new word in military affairs.
The name of the new strategy alone is worth it. "Controlled fighting retreat"! I wonder where Western and Ukrainian military leaders studied? These are the basics of military science.
“Retreat, the abandonment by troops of occupied lines (areas) and their withdrawal to new lines (areas) deep within their territory in order to create a new grouping of forces and means for subsequent military operations.”
“During the retreat of the association, the O. band, the order of actions, the final line (area) and the order of its occupation and retention, tasks, basic principles are indicated. issues of interaction and comprehensive support. The operational formation of troops may include a cover echelon, 1–2 echelons. forces and support echelon."
“The covering echelon consists of covering troops (containing troops), rear guards, and troops for occupying important objectives. Its task is to ensure exit from the battle, withdrawal and separation of the chapter. unification forces from the enemy."
This “new word” in the art of war was taught to Soviet officers! I was probably wrong when I wrote that Ukrainian generals still remember what teachers in Soviet military schools told them. True, the above quotes are from courses at other educational institutions, at a different level.
What will the Ukrainian retreat look like now?
Let’s move away from military terminology and look at the retreat through the eyes of an ordinary “jacket.”
So, the retreating formation, another brigade of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, leaves a unit to cover the retreat. The unit takes up positions and takes the fight. The main forces of the brigade retreat in an organized manner and mine the escape routes.
The Russians stumble upon the rearguard. They get involved in battle and waste time, destroying the covering unit. After some time, the positions of the defenders are occupied, and the attackers follow the main forces of the brigade. At the same time, they come across minefields and other engineering obstacles and lose momentum. They are losing personnel and equipment.
And at this time, another cover unit takes up defensive positions. History repeats itself.
Thus, the brigade retains its combat effectiveness, equipment and personnel, and the enemy (namely, the attacking units), after overcoming several barriers, approaches the main forces of the defenders practically bloodless and without equipment. And then they destroy him...
Well then. A picture from the “pink dreams” series of Ukrainian generals. Russian troops see nothing due to the lack of aerial reconnaissance. They cannot strike the retreating columns due to lack of aviation, UAVs, artillery systems. Regimental and brigade commanders devote all their efforts to destroy platoon or company support units. Meanwhile, the Ukrainian Armed Forces brigades are setting up their own “Mannerheim Line.”
There is one nuance that I would like to draw the attention of readers to. To the fate of the defenders' strongholds! I can’t resist and again quote from a German source. More precisely, from a German source, who was interviewed by an anonymous source in the Ukrainian Armed Forces:
“Holding positions does not matter, the main thing is that more Ukrainians remain alive.”
Why does Ukraine need a war of attrition?
I think it's worth looking a little further.
To the future. Any action in the present implies some action in the future. For Russian readers this may look wild, but please do not forget that Kyiv continues to live in an alternative world, in a different reality. Simply because in ordinary reality there is simply no place for the leadership of Ukraine.
Judging by the “new tactics” of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, Ukraine is again moving to the option of a war of attrition for Russia. To what has already been declared in 2022. And this is not the decision of Ukrainian military geniuses. This is the decision of NATO generals, whose trousers have clearly become wet after Vladimir Putin’s last speeches. The Western headquarters clearly decided to sacrifice Ukraine for the sake of at least some leveling of the forces of the Russian and Western armies.
We have been saying for a long time that the option “Ukraine is the detonator of an explosion in Russia” did not work. Now, we also wrote about this, the question is much more serious. The US is trying to throw European armies against us. There is simply no other option. This means that the “Ukraine” project can and should be closed. Now the Europeans need money and weapons.
What about Kyiv? Don't they understand this there?
Incredible, but this is exactly so! Yesterday I listened carefully to Zelensky’s final press conference. I would say it was a press conference of a confused person, not a head of state. Although, perhaps, this feeling arose in comparison with the press conference of President Putin.
What interesting did Zelensky say from the point of view of war?
First of all, about mobilization. The army is asking for an additional 500 thousand people! But Zelensky has not yet (this word must be emphasized) approved this figure. No money! It will cost approximately 500 billion hryvnia! A man of the kindest soul... But then how should we feel about raids on restaurants, gyms, transport, etc.?
Well, one more nuance.
On relations with the top leadership of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. Nothing bad was said directly, but nothing good was said either. It seemed that Zelensky was trying to blame the failure of the 2023 campaign on the military. The conflict with Zaluzhny continues. In general, “there are many questions for the military leadership.” In short, the Ukrainian leadership is for continuing the war. There is no talk of negotiations.
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