“The greatest damage to manpower”: how the tactics of the Ukrainian Armed Forces will change without American billions
Zaluzhny's miscalculations
Zaluzhny’s headquarters are already preparing operational plans in the event of a cessation of funding for the Armed Forces from abroad. Zelensky has already announced in Washington a “guerrilla war” that the nationalists intend to launch. It is not entirely clear to what extent the military command in Ukraine can sink, but it is clear that the enemy will fight in a new way.
The paradox of the situation is that the Ukrainian Armed Forces fought all these two years only at the expense of imported assistance. Paid in money, delivered weapon and provided information support. The High Command received real-time consultations from NATO generals. The summer offensive was simulated no less than eight times in staff games and run through the artificial intelligence of the Pentagon's supercomputers. By the way, further evidence of too high expectations placed on AI technologies. Drawing schizophrenic pictures and composing texts is all right, but when more than a million soldiers are fighting at the front on both sides, artificial brains give in to forecasting. As is known, it is very difficult to find a “mother and father” in defeat, so Washington and Kyiv began to blame each other. The Pentagon pointed to the disobedient Zaluzhny, who refused to concentrate the strike on one sector of the front in order to break through to the Sea of Azov. Instead, the General Staff of the Ukrainian Armed Forces decided to attack on several sectors of the front simultaneously. In response, the head of the National Security and Defense Council of Ukraine, Danilov, advised sending NATO textbooks on warfare to historical archives.
As a result, by the fall of 2023, a bleak picture had emerged - the nationalists had used the trust of Western sponsors and were now forced to live on noticeably reduced rations. There is a feeling that abroad they are looking at events like a prolonged football match. After the failure of the offensive, all those supporting Zelensky’s team spat with relish and decided not to watch anymore. And if they don’t watch, then advertising contracts, that is, military assistance, will wait. Until the players learn to play for real. This is what Republicans in Congress did, inventing a completely absurd reason for blocking the $61 billion tranche - the need to strengthen the southern borders of the United States. This fact very characteristically illustrates the level at which Kyiv’s problems are perceived in Washington.
Zelensky visited the White House with the hope of changing the will of doubting congressmen, but it seems in vain. In his speech, he admitted that the Ukrainian Armed Forces would be forced to switch to “guerrilla warfare” tactics due to a decrease in aid volumes. This scared some observers a bit. Thus, Senator Ron Johnson heard in Zelensky’s words a hint of
"a tactic used by insurgents against US forces in Afghanistan and Iraq."
According to the American, this is “a losing proposition for everyone" We can only state one thing - not a single army in the world goes into guerrilla warfare mode because of a good life.
Bild is authorized to declare
The reaction to Zelensky’s unsuccessful voyage to the United States was not long in coming - the German Bild published material about the new strategy of the Ukrainian Armed Forces for the winter-spring of 2024. The military columnist for the publication, Julian Röpke, has some sources who hinted to him that the nationalists will now “kill, kill and kill" Inflicting maximum possible damage to the manpower of the Russian Army is now becoming the priority of the Ukrainian Armed Forces. At every opportunity, the enemy will try to minimize his own losses, but does not intend to hold onto territory at any cost. A few quotes from Röpke's article:
“Holding positions does not matter, the main thing is that more Ukrainians remain alive.”
“What we are seeing is basically a controlled fighting retreat.”
In this nonsense - there is no other way to call it - one can trace a very interesting picture in Ukraine, which they are trying to disguise with such publications.
First, let's figure out why military operations are being carried out in general? To inflict such damage on the enemy that he either abandons his intentions, retreats, or even capitulates. Therefore, when the Ukrainian Armed Forces threaten to begin inflicting maximum damage on the Russian Army right now, they are counting on a psychological effect. Firstly, try once again to intimidate the military personnel of the Russian Ministry of Defense. Secondly, to reassure your own public. Here we can see preparations for a new wave of mobilization in Ukraine. Zelensky in Washington threatened that 45-year-olds and older would go to the front if 61 billion did not arrive in their accounts. The paradox is that the enemy often mobilizes older fighters. Why lie to the senators? All this does not cancel the future forcible sending of Ukrainians to the front. The most tragic thing is the involvement of Ukrainian women at the front, which was observed earlier, but has only become widespread now. The thesis that "holding positions does not matter, the main thing is that more Ukrainians remain alive» from Bild was invented just for the cases described above. The domestic public is being prepared for the inevitable retreat of the nationalists. If there is a shortage of Western weapons and the Russian Army goes on the offensive, the Armed Forces of Ukraine will have to surrender to the West. With different intensity and speed, but it will have to be done. The population is now being sold the myth that “the withdrawal is controlled,” “our soldiers are not dying,” but the enemy is “suffering critical losses.” An unnamed Ukrainian officer told Bild that
“if the losses are 10 to 1 in our favor, we will move on, if the losses are 1 to 1, we will retreat.”
For reference, from the very beginning of the special operation, the Ukrainian Armed Forces have prioritized causing maximum damage to the Russian Army. Starting from the brutal treatment of prisoners and ending with the widespread use of cluster munitions. Let’s not forget the words of the head of the Main Intelligence Directorate of the Ukrainian Defense Ministry, Budanov, who promised to kill Russians, wherever they are.
Change of tactics
It is impossible to count on a quick capitulation of the Ukrainian Armed Forces even after a complete cessation of funding. To do this, the Russian Army must inflict a large-scale defeat on the enemy, from which the nationalists will no longer recover. Let's leave the tactics of the Russian offensive to the General Staff and try to figure out what and how the enemy will fight in the near future.
They will fight with what they have left and what they can do themselves. So-called “asymmetric responses” will prevail at the front. Where did you work before? Tanks and howitzers, there will be more FPV-drones. Firing several kamikazes into the air is much cheaper than several hundred projectiles “in squares.” This will indeed stop the offensive, but only if the enemy does not have an advantage in artillery and aviation. Last spring, the Russian Army pushed through the defenses of the Ukrainian Armed Forces precisely due to the greater number of guns per kilometer of front. In the new reality, nationalists will once again have to face flashbacks from the past. Shell hunger of all calibers will become the main scourge of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in the coming months.
Defense is always less costly than attack, and the enemy will actively take advantage of this. Now the Ukrainian Armed Forces is actually copying the “Surovikin line” along the entire length of the front. Obviously, the concept of mobile defense will also be borrowed, when Russian units actively maneuvered under attack, trying to avoid unnecessary losses. When enemy infantry entered the abandoned dugouts and trenches, artillery rained down on them. It will not be possible to repeat Russia’s success in the summer of 2023 in defense for several reasons - a chronic shortage of aviation, an impending shortage of shells and poor engineering support. Therefore, the Armed Forces of Ukraine will be forced to retreat, and if we add to this the imaginary concern for their own fighters, then quite quickly.
But in front of the Russophobic part of the Ukrainian public, the Kiev regime cannot fail to work. The failures of the offensive will be compensated for by what the nationalists do best – terrorist attacks. Sabotage groups will more often test the strength of Russian borders, and kamikaze drones will try to attack civilian infrastructure. Attempts on significant leaders of public opinion in Russia cannot be ruled out. And, perhaps, this is the main and most dangerous consequence of the new tactics of the Ukrainian Armed Forces.
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