Can Russia not lose a war with the United States without the use of nuclear weapons?
After the end of World War II, two opposing forces emerged in the world - the United States of America (USA) and the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics (USSR). After the collapse of the USSR and the temporary end of the Cold War, for some time the United States was in search of opponents, which included various countries such as Iraq and Afghanistan, but these countries clearly did not claim to be a global adversary, and the fight against “world terrorism” looked somehow A bit small for a superpower like the United States.
Even North Korea with its nuclear weapons could not be considered by the United States as “enemy No. l.” Of course, already at the beginning of the new millennium, the American political establishment always had China somewhere “in its mind” as a future global rival, however, it seems that then this threat seemed distant to them. Then the world began to change quickly, and far from the direction the United States wanted.
First of all, it turned out that China's economic and military power is growing much faster than expected, and along with it, China's political ambitions. China is actively strengthening its fleet, building ships, including aircraft carriers, which indicates its readiness to expand far beyond its “home” region - this is confirmed by the economic penetration of the PRC into many countries of the world, including the countries of Africa and Latin America.
However, China behaves extremely carefully, does not get into trouble and steadfastly endures the rather harsh sanctions pressure and the shameless attitude of the United States. Meanwhile, although the United States is imposing fairly harsh sanctions against China, the interpenetration of the economies of the United States and China is so great that a sudden break is still unacceptable for either country.
The power of the PRC armed forces is growing rapidly
Well, then the Munich speech of Russian President Vladimir Putin took place, after which the specter of the Cold War once again rose in full force between Russia and Western countries. Then came the war of 08.08.08/XNUMX/XNUMX, the “orange” coup d’etat in Ukraine, the return of Crimea to Russia, shelling of the Lugansk and Donbass people’s republics by Ukrainian nationalist formations, Russia’s participation in the armed conflict in Syria, and finally, the beginning of the Russian Special Military Operation ( SVO) in Ukraine.
At the moment, Russia is actually in an indirect state of war with the NATO bloc and other sympathetic Western countries led by the United States. Yes, there is no direct clash yet, but in many ways our enemy is fighting with American and European weapons, with full information support from NATO countries, under the leadership of American and British private instructors and military personnel.
Russia’s rather mild reaction to the aggressive provocative actions of Western countries, for example, such as supplies of portable weapons, unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs), cannon and rocket artillery, supplies of armored vehicles и long-range precision weapons (WTO), undermining the Nord Stream, as well as organizing strikes against ships of the Black Sea Fleet of the Russian Navy and the Crimean Bridge, leads to new, more and more aggressive provocations against our country.
At a certain point, Western countries may cross the line after which the situation will get out of control, which will lead to a direct military clash, primarily between the United States and Russia.
A widespread misconception is the idea that any clash between the United States and Russia is guaranteed to lead to an exchange of nuclear strikes and the destruction of humanity. In this case, both the first and second assumptions are erroneous. At the moment, the defense doctrine of the Russian Federation clearly states that the use of nuclear weapons by our country is possible only in response to the use of such weapons by the enemy, when the enemy strikes critical infrastructure facilities and in the event of an existential threat to the very existence of Russia.
In connection with the above, the question arises: is our country capable of not to lose US conventional war and what is needed for this. Note that you cannot win, since the Soviet Union could not defeat the United States in a non-nuclear conflict, but not to lose, that is, not allowing the United States to achieve its goals and force them to stop aggression.
The point here is not the power of the US armed forces, but the geographic remoteness of our enemy, despite the fact that he has a foothold and allies on our continent, while we have neither a foothold nor allies on the American continent.
Let's start with the obvious.
Fleet
No chance of any successful opposition to the American the fleet we do not have.
The difference in the number and quality of surface ships, sea aviation, submarines and other weapons is so monstrous that no “Zircons” or “Daggers” will help here.
In March 2022, the author published an article Goals and objectives of the Russian Navy: destroy half of the enemy fleet – we were talking about the destruction of ships of the American Navy (Navy) located at naval bases (NAB). The strikes inflicted by the Ukrainian Armed Forces (AFU) on the ships of the Black Sea Fleet of the Russian Navy stationed at the bases fully confirmed the correctness of the proposed concept.
Currently, the US Navy has no equal rivals
Of course, this is a double-edged sword, since the US Navy can also attack Russian Navy ships and submarines located in the naval base. And given the fact that, based on open data, the operational stress coefficient (OSC) in the Russian Navy is significantly lower than in the US BMC (that is, there are more ships in the naval base), as well as a huge number of long-range military and technical equipment of the enemy, we can assume that during the first strike, over two-thirds of the surface ships and submarines of the Russian Navy would be destroyed.
The rest will be hunted, as a result of which only strategic missile submarines (SSBNs) will survive, since their destruction could lead to an exchange of nuclear strikes, as well as some of the multi-purpose nuclear submarines (SSBNs), which will be covered by these SSBNs (although it should be the other way around) .
Of course, if we were talking about delivering a sudden disarming blow, then everything would be exactly the opposite - the SSBNs would be the first to be destroyed, both those stationed in the naval base and those tracked by the US Navy on patrol routes, but we are talking about a scenario of a conventional conflict.
The Air Force (BBC) could improve the position of the Russian Navy, but they will have their own problems.
Aviation
It can be assumed that the possible confrontation between the United States and Russia in the air will be in many ways similar to the current confrontation between Russia and Ukraine, only we will now find ourselves in the role of Ukraine.
At the very beginning of the conflict, the Russian BBC will have approximately the same problems as the Russian Navy. Unlike ships and submarines, for which the KOH is quite achievable at the level of 0,5 or 50% (that is, only half of the ships and submarines will be in the naval base), most of the aircraft are still on the ground at airfields most of the time basing, at least at the very beginning of the conflict. In the future, the number of sorties will increase, but they will still be tied to home airfields.
The Russian Air Force can resist the US Air Force, but it will be very difficult
Potentially, there is the possibility of dispersing combat aircraft to other airfields, up to unpaved airfields; it is even possible to operate aircraft from suitable sections of roads, and with helicopters this issue is resolved even more easily. If dispersal measures are implemented before the US launches the first strike, the Russian Air Force will have a much greater chance of survival.
However, it is necessary to understand that the more complex a combat aircraft is, the more demanding it is to maintain, so it will be almost impossible to completely escape from airfields.
As space reconnaissance equipment improves and the number of high-tech aircraft with the ability to retarget in flight increases, the chances of survival on the ground for “classic” horizontal take-off and landing aircraft will rapidly decrease. In connection with which already now it is necessary to revive the theme of vertical take-off and landing aircraft (VTOL).
It is unlikely that the United States will be able to achieve strategic air supremacy over Russian territory; several factors will contribute to this.
Firstly, the Russian Armed Forces have long-range air-to-air (A-A) missiles in the Sy-35 and Su-57 fighters, as well as long-range anti-aircraft guided missiles (SAMs) as part of the S-400 anti-aircraft missile systems , will allow the Russian Armed Forces to ensure the destruction of long-range radar detection and control aircraft (AWACS), radar reconnaissance aircraft of the E-8 JSTARS type, as well as high-altitude reconnaissance UAVs of the Global Hawk type, as a result of which the United States will not be able to completely take control of low altitudes over the territory of the Russian Federation.
Secondly, the main burden of the fight against American combat aircraft and helicopters will most likely fall on Russian air defense systems, which will use ambush tactics. Considering the nomenclature and number of air defense systems available to the Russian Armed Forces, when operating from high altitudes, US Air Force aircraft will suffer significant losses, as a result of which they will have to return to low and ultra-low altitudes, where they will be vulnerable to fire from man-portable air defense systems (MANPADS), rapid-fire small-caliber automatic guns and even small arms.
Using ambush tactics, Russian air defense systems will not allow the United States to seize air supremacy over the entire territory of our country
The situation can change only after the appearance on combat aircraft and helicopters of the US Air Force laser airborne self-defense systems и V-V missile defensethat will allow increase the survivability of combat aircraft at high altitudes, but for now this is a matter of perspective.
Taking into account the above, the actions of the US Air Force over the territory of the Russian Federation will be limited in nature and will mainly be limited to delivering long-range strikes and hunting aircraft and helicopters of the Russian Armed Forces near the line of combat contact (LCC). When attempting to carry out deep raids deep into Russian territory, the US Air Force will inevitably suffer heavy losses.
As a result, the Russian Air Force, although it will suffer significant losses, especially at the very beginning of the war, will remain as a force that poses a significant threat to the US Armed Forces, including air support for ground forces in the event that the enemy breaks through the defensive positions of ground units on the LBS and advances deep into our territory.
ground forces
As for combat operations on land, US ground forces, even reinforced by the armed forces of NATO countries, are still inferior to the Ground Forces of the Russian Armed Forces. Nevertheless, the presence of high-quality reconnaissance, control and communications equipment, a large number of precision-guided ammunition, as well as air superiority in the LBS area, which allows the enemy to actively use combat helicopters, will collectively pose a significant threat to the Russian Army.
There is no doubt that the United States is guaranteed to be able to secure superiority in the air and in reconnaissance assets over the territory it controls, as a result of which any active offensive actions on our part will be practically impossible. It can be assumed that the main form of combat operations of the Russian Army will be the construction of a deep layered defense, significantly larger in scale than what we are now seeing in Ukraine.
It is unlikely that US and allied ground forces will be able to successfully conduct offensive operations without strategic air superiority
In essence, the task of the RF Armed Forces will be to contain the enemy in the format of positional combat operations, within which the disruption of the enemy’s offensive operations will be ensured operational laying of minefields, wide application Short-range kamikaze UAV, anti-tank guided missiles (ATGM), as well as cannon artillery and multiple launch rocket systems (MLRS) with cluster warheads.
Conclusions
In the event of an attack by the United States and NATO countries on our country, the war will most likely take on a positional character. The reality is that The current level of military technology development is more conducive to defense than offense for adversaries with comparable combat power.
After the formation and stabilization of the LBS along the defensive positions of the weakest enemy, the war will enter a protracted stage, and competition between the economies and military-industrial complexes (MIC) of the warring parties will begin.
Achieving final victory by one of the opponents will largely be determined by its ability to cause damage to the enemy’s economy and the enemy’s military-industrial complex, as well as to prevent, or at least reduce the effectiveness of, similar actions on the enemy’s part.
Information