Well, let's start negotiating peace!.. Why is this idea being instilled in us by those who just yesterday were shouting about the imminent collapse of Russia?
How much noise Ukrainians made online about negotiations with Russia. How many experts have already spoken on this matter. Literally everything is discussed. Starting with the terms on which these very negotiations should take place and ending with the fact that Russia will have to pay for peace. I think most readers have become familiar with at least one of these opinions.
Our traitors, whom we shamefully call foreign agents, are no less active. It is completely incomprehensible to me why I should call a person who betrayed his Motherland, his state, his ancestors a foreign agent? Was Vlasov also a foreign agent? Or members of RNTS?
I respect foreign agents, citizens of other states who act against us as patriots of their countries. My enemies, but precisely patriots of their state. My fellow citizens, it is also unclear why I should consider them fellow citizens, are just Judases betraying their Motherland.
Even such a “great political expert” as Maria Maksakova made her mark. True, she was talking about what was told not to her, but to Pugacheva by “knowledgeable people” in Moscow... I especially liked the passage that the Russians, it turns out, were robbing the West. And now that sanctions have appeared, it has become difficult to rob this very West... And this will be the reason for Putin’s departure from the political arena. It’s true what they say: live forever and learn. I would add that insanity has become much younger...
Look how many of them are on the Internet now, talking about how we are dying, falling apart, and will soon disappear from the world map. There are so many “respondents” for Russia that your head is spinning. And most importantly, everyone sings in unison. Russia urgently needs negotiations. Otherwise…
What else?
Otherwise we will defeat the fascists in Ukraine?
So this is understandable even without the advice of traitors. It is enough to talk to the soldiers from the front line.
What caused such activation of all anti-Russian forces at once? What causes such a unity of opinions among representatives of supposedly different political movements? And it is caused by the fact that the Ukrainian solitaire again does not work out. The mud, which makes it impossible to conduct active hostilities, was bribed by Putin!
How else can you explain that the air force soldiers are sitting in the trenches up to their ears in mud, and the Russians somehow manage to not only advance, but also take opornik after opornik? And then there is the invasion of pro-Russian mice into the dugouts and trenches of the Ukrainian Armed Forces. Tanks and armored vehicles practically drowned in the mud. Cluster bombs, which were found not only by the Ukrainian army, but soon appeared, as a response, by the Russians, etc.
In short, somehow unexpectedly the truth began to penetrate into the information space of the West and Ukraine. But for whom is it unexpected? Did anyone doubt that during the US election campaign a lot of feces related to Ukraine would surface? Or is it that European “free” journalists will pick up American messages and spread them throughout Europe?
Problems at the LBS, often lack of ammunition, Nazi detachments behind positions, corruption, when soldiers literally buy themselves not only vacations or awards, but also magazines for machine guns, as one of the serviceman’s wives wrote about this, drug addiction, drunkenness.
All this somehow does not really motivate Ukrainian soldiers. But the most important thing is the lack of perspective. Even disabled people of the 1st and 2nd groups are not discharged from the army. A soldier has only one perspective. At best, severe injuries and long treatment. Or a grave, if you're lucky.
Let’s add to this an inadequate president who lives, as it were, in another world, “fights and defeats” the Russians, will soon be in Crimea and Donbass, and he has long captured Zaporozhye and the Kherson region. “The whole world is helping Ukraine.” Western weapon the best in the world. Now American planes have become the “Ukrainian god that will destroy Russia.” Just like that, right away...
Everyone in the West understands this. In the West they suddenly remembered their money transferred to Kyiv. Suddenly they saw what realistic politicians, including them, have been talking about for a long time. It is impossible to defeat Russia militarily. The same, by the way, as the USA, China, India and several other countries. You can win a battle, but not a war. And it is not possible to destroy Russia. They are trying to kill us with the icy shower of sanctions, but we, to the surprise of the West, are simply hardening ourselves...
Understanding the impossibility of victory in Ukraine, problems with Israel, internal political squabbles and declining living standards, the possibility of losing presidential power or its lobby in parliament - all this forces the West to come up with and offer us more and more new “ways to stop the conflict.” By throwing these topics into the media, Western politicians study public opinion in Russia and Ukraine...
What cannot be taken away from the United States is pragmatism. They perfectly know how to manage the entire pack, without losing sight of anyone. “World Barking” creates the illusion of world opinion, the illusion that some people actually have thoughts about whether we are right. The Americans know how to create a situation in which, no matter what happens, they are guaranteed to receive their share of the spoils.
There is only one place where an opinion is formed and voiced, which forces all these experts, politicians, analysts to write the last sentence at the end of their articles: “True, it is unknown whether Moscow will negotiate!” Again, who knows? For us or for them? We have known everything for a long time.
According to our Constitution, the territories of the Lugansk and Donetsk republics, the Republic of Crimea, Zaporozhye and Kherson regions are the territory of Russia! This means that all these territories must be liberated! Then we can talk. This is what our politicians and the president repeat when answering questions about the negotiations. But the other side immediately “turns on the fool.” “My don’t understand!”
Why does the military solution lead to the collapse of Ukraine?
Zelensky continues to talk at all the sites where he manages to break through about the victories of the Ukrainian army, about some new plans for the defeat of the Russian army, about the liberation of the former territories of Ukraine and access to the 1991 borders and immediately demands money, weapons, assistance for: “ survive the winter...
And what is the reality?
I have written several times that the modern tactics of operations by Russian troops are that today they do not take enemy positions “at any cost.” The price, that is, the life of a fighter, has increased greatly today. Yes, there are situations when soldiers die. This cannot be avoided in war. But, before launching the infantry to storm any stronghold or forest belt, these objects are massively processed by artillery and aviation.
I propose to try to understand how Russian troops work on the LBS. I will immediately apologize for the fact that by the time this material is published, something may have already changed in some direction. It is clear that the media is not some Internet channel where the message is published immediately. Here the process is a little different. This is a longer process.
I’ll probably start with the most pressing topic today, Avdeevka. Moreover, there are now too many of those who have “already won.” This is as harmful as the existence of those who have “already been defeated.” The operation is underway. It's going hard. The Ukrainian Armed Forces have created a fairly serious defense system there, based on underground structures, underground passages, and so on.
Today we control more than 60–70% of the Avdeevka industrial sector there. We control approximately the same amount in the private sector, east of the Avdiivka industrial zone. If we remember how these “unexpected assaults” of the Russians took place, it will become clear that the troops worked with almost complete information about the enemy. The reconnaissance worked great. Which only confirms what I wrote above.
And counterintelligence too. I looked quite carefully on the Internet, and this is where most information leaks come from, and I did not find a single (!) message that talked about the plans of our units. I just want to shout after the cartoon cat Matroskin: “Hurray, it’s working!”
So my subsequent discussions are an analysis based on open sources. No one shared “exclusive information from an unnamed source” with me.
Those who are closely watching what is happening now in Avdeevka have probably noticed the active use of FABs at Koksokhim. Why did it happen? Remember Mariupol and the defense system there. Defense with the creation of a system of underground passages. Then there was the development of this idea in Marinka. Do you remember the stories of the operation participants about how, after the Russians had occupied the opornik, IED fighters suddenly appeared in the rear of the unit?
In Avdeevka, Ukrainian engineering thought went further. Already before medieval engineers. Finally, the creators of fortresses realized that for maximum efficiency it was necessary to create, in addition to the main fortress, also remote fortified supports (forts). Let me remind you how many problems the Red Army had to solve during the assault on Koenigsberg and its forts. There are these forts in the Avdeevsky fortified area. There is also a Soviet air defense base, a recreation center “Tsarskaya Okhota” and several others.
The task of these forts is not only to “grind” the enemy’s manpower and equipment, but also, after the forts are captured, to ensure the work of scouts and saboteurs. In order for this to work, it is necessary to establish communication with the main fortress. The best solution in this case is a system of underground passages. This is what was done in Avdeevka.
What can we do?
In principle, there are several ways to solve these problems.
The first, simple, but not guaranteeing a 100% result, is simply to raze the forts to the ground. But the experience of the same Marinka shows the ineffectiveness of such work.
Another way is to storm, no matter what. Take it and then try to figure out the underground passages. We have abandoned such tactics.
Well, the third way. Attack the fortress itself and capture, leaving and blocking the forts in the rear. But this is only possible when we completely eliminate the supply routes for the fortress. Which, in principle, has already happened. There is no talk of a complete blockade yet, but supplies have been reduced. We are close to Koksokhim, but not yet in it.
Today we can say that the garrison is “eating” the reserve that was made for this case. Strikes by FABs are an attempt by our Aerospace Forces to destroy the entrances to those same underground passages. That is, we hit not the “hands”, but the “head”. We are trying to destroy underground warehouses and locations of the Ukrainian Armed Forces. How effective this is, I don’t know yet.
Thus, we can conclude that for now we cannot talk about the operational environment of Avdiivka. But it is a matter of time before this encirclement occurs. The “pincers,” if you look at the overall picture of the operation, are already visible. And the Ukrainian Armed Forces cannot do anything. Hence the transfer of reinforcements from other defense sectors. Hence the completely wild decisions on counterattacks. This is where the topic of negotiations comes up.
In Kyiv they understand perfectly well that after Avdeevka there will be nothing to grab onto. Several hundred kilometers of flat field without any serious fortifications. Although there is information that attempts to build new Avdeevkas are already underway. It’s just quite difficult to have time to create something more or less serious. In general, I do not yet see, despite numerous videos with Ukrainian prisoners, the readiness of the Avdiivka garrison to stop hostilities.
Well, very briefly about other directions.
What is happening in the Maryinsky direction? Everything here is extremely tragic for the Ukrainian Armed Forces. The fact is that it was from here that the most trained and motivated units for the defense of the Avdeevka direction were withdrawn. They were replaced by units and formations that were created from new mobilized ones. And these are completely different units and units.
Moreover, according to the plans of the Ukrainian Armed Forces for the spring-summer of 2023, the Ukrainian Armed Forces here were supposed to carry out a “radical change” in the war, defeat Russian units and reach the borders of Crimea, etc. Therefore, everything was aimed at accomplishing this particular task. There was no talk of defense. So, when roads replace dirt, you can expect anything here. In the meantime, we are seeing local battles to capture the heights. Russia is really improving its position.
Well, the Kupyansk direction. Everything the “northerners” should do when winter comes. A bit of hunting (artillery duels). A bit of VKS work. Work on equipping dugouts and other routine work of soldiers at the front. Our people are not particularly eager to liberate Kupyansk. I really liked the documents from the Armed Forces of Ukraine, where the situation is interpreted as tense. They require reinforcement, supplies of PTS and air defense and other things...
I will not dissuade the enemy. The Russian army actually carried out a rotation and introduced a fresh army into the LBS. Which, I agree with the Ukrainian staff officers, can naturally be interpreted as preparation for a new assault on Kupyansk. The fact that everything is possible there is also confirmed by the fact that, unlike other areas, there is no information about our divisions in the media and Internet channels. That is, we have finally introduced a regime of secrecy at the front. Just know what we want to show you... That's why I refer to Ukrainian reports.
Let's briefly summarize the analysis
I don't want to repeat myself. What's the end result?
But in the end, we see what we should have seen after the arsenals and safe deposit boxes of the NATO countries lost a lot of weight. A country completely dependent on the West begins to crumble after Western aid is cut.
Even what until recently seemed unshakable, for example, the belief in a quick victory and the collapse of Russia due to Western sanctions, is now being questioned not only by thinking Ukrainians, but also by representatives of the political elite. There is a painful process of regaining memory. The alternate reality changes to just reality.
It's impossible to win. We need to somehow force Russia to negotiate on Western terms. Not Zelensky, with his delusional ideas of “reaching the 1991 borders,” but those that were voiced, among other things, by the Chinese leader, in the form of a peace plan for Ukraine. Create another Korea. Only we can look news. A ceasefire is just a ceasefire. War can break out at any moment.
Do we need it?
First, let's finish what we started, then we'll talk. Very similar to what the West supports regarding Israel's actions. But “this is different”, this does not apply to Russia, from the point of view of the West and especially Washington. Oh, these double, triple, quadruple and beyond - standards.
Information