Landing nonsense or Crimea as a key to Russia
Although today all attention is paid to Gaza, where you yourself know what is happening, we will nevertheless talk about things closer to home than the next stage of the Jewish-Arab showdown. Of course, hardcore fans have something to see there, there is no dispute here, both sides tried to provide everyone with hot content, but there are things that are closer and more important to us.
In general, of course, I was terribly surprised to see how Israeli soldiers of both sexes and civilians were being dragged into captivity, and they did not let go of their phones and were filming.
But our topic is not so widely covered, and therefore causes a very ambiguous reaction among normal people, from simple surprise to quoting Lavrov about these...
Are we all really supposed to believe that Ukrainian special forces specialists with good ranks tried to land in Crimea to stage a PR campaign?
You know, it’s somewhat reminiscent of the parable about the drunken bell ringer who fell from the bell tower and remained alive. Once is an accident, twice is a coincidence, three times is a pattern. And today we can clearly trace three attempts at photo sessions with flags in Crimea. Moreover, from time to time they became not only more sophisticated, no. Rather, more thoughtful.
It's the fourth of October. More precisely, the night of this date. An RQ-4B “Global Hawk” appears in the sky above Romanian territorial waters, quickly spotted by our electronic intelligence. “Global Hawk” today is like the FW-189 “Rama” during the Great Patriotic War, that is, it is absolutely not good. So everyone understood that some kind of nasty thing was being prepared, and judging by the results, measures of a certain nature were taken.
Further. Then two Neptunes flew towards Sevastopol. It is clear that the Ukrainians did not intend to anti-ship anyone there; it was clearly a diversionary maneuver. Like an artillery barrage of a dozen shells during reconnaissance in force. The Neptunes were shot down, but the confidence that it was not just like that remained.
Then a speedboat and three jet skis. The set, let's say, is ambiguous. It seems that the group went to the same point where they tried to land on September 23, which once again suggests that the point is not simple, there is probably something (or someone) there in terms of support.
As a result, the Su-30 aviation The Black Sea Fleet sank a boat, something strange happened with the jet skis, both in terms of quantity (the numbers vary from 3 to 5), and in terms of who they were and where. But one saboteur was caught.
I believe unconditionally that this is from the Ukrainian side. Because it’s impossible to stage such a game in a blue eye, or we were present at the birth of a new cinema star. Of course, many decided that this was a production, but there is a nuance.
All the military in the world, to put it mildly, exaggerate their merits. Well, just to get an order instead of a medal, and an Order instead of an order. If there had been a statement from our DIMC, then the task would have been stated to be at least the destruction of Aksenov by a painful death or the blowing up of something from the Black Sea fleet, fortunately, there are more than enough goals there. Well, you understand, the supergroup was on a super mission, and our guys neutralized them all.
Well, it’s clear that there are reasons to write awards lists.
And here on all the television screens of the country the body is broadcasting that he was going to take a selfie with the flag. That is, in our country the role of everyone involved in the counteraction was permanently reduced to catching inadequate people. And we didn’t cope with this role so well, because we only caught one.
In general, exposing the enemy as a herd of clinical idiots is dangerous. You don’t have to look far for examples; after the First Karabakh War, the Armenians, to put it mildly, stopped considering the Azerbaijanis as rivals, we and Ukraine were very mistaken (although most of it does not lie with the Ukrainians), Israel somehow miscalculated with Hamas...
So you can criticize, you can even laugh if there is a reason, but often such an attitude, with a chuckle and disdain, turns out to be simply an inflated opinion and self-deception. And you also know how it ends: “regroupings” or outright retreats. And as a result, the opinion about the army, Russian, Israeli, American, has fallen below the plinth - this is no longer so important.
Well, the Ukrainian special forces’ raid on Crimea looks absolutely crazy. Simply because special operations are never carried out for the sake of PR. It is nonsense. And carrying out such an operation in an area of increased attention and a certain readiness to counteract is not even stupidity, but a betrayal of personnel.
So it’s clear that the Ukrainian military man fired the first thing that came to mind. That’s not what they were going for at all, and thank God, the majority of people in Russia understand this. Send two dozen (okay, almost two) trained by the British (and it was the SAS who trained these tough guys) in order to stick the flag in and take a photo with it... Well, there’s only one question then: who to stick it in and where. Everything else is more or less clear.
Why SAS? Well, firstly, information about the training of the Ukrainian military within the walls of such a respected institution as the UK Special Operations Directorate was leaked, and secondly, during the reforms of the SO Directorate, the selection process for the SAS and SBS (Special Boat Service, the naval analogue of the SAS) was merged into a single program.
An indirect confirmation can be the fact that the main structure of the SBS is a “squad”, which consists of four “patrols” of four people. That is, a “squad” is 16 fighters. How many went to Crimea? These are such interesting coincidences.
And send such a detachment, and even one that has undergone VERY expensive training, where for one fighter there are 2-3 instructors and a dozen and a half people from the technical service?
You know, the satirist Zadornov once famously turned with the phrase “Well, stupid!”, but in our case we shouldn’t get carried away. SBS taking Ukrainian naval special forces under its wing is serious. British saboteurs are truly some of the best in the world and they have a tail of well-executed operations trailing behind them, like a rat.
After landing, a “squad” of 16 people can be divided into 4 “patrols”, and each of these groups can very quickly travel 30-50 kilometers from the landing site, and not just like that, but with a full combat load. And if there are also assistants at the landing point who will provide transport, then the groups can go very far.
For what? Well, this is very well written in stories.
For example, Operation Granby. This is already far back in 1991, when the Coalition was hammering the Iraqi troops that occupied Kuwait. The operation is not easy, and it is impossible to say that everything was unambiguous. But the principle of “how to make candy out of shit” was fully implemented by British commandos.
In general, the task was to destroy Iraqi installations with Scud missiles, things that were very unpleasant for any landing force. The task was entrusted to the American Delta Force, but they whined and asked for help from the British, citing the fact that the British had been familiar with the deserts of Kuwait for a long time. It's like the deserts are different.
Since the Iraqis smartly camouflaged their Scuds and only flew them at night, they could not be detected from the air. Therefore, it was decided to search with the help of mobile groups that were dropped in by helicopters, or the specialists themselves penetrated on pickup trucks and motorcycles.
In general, everything turned out to be useless, since the Iraqis simply got wind of the operation and the Scuds were simply sent back as soon as they realized that they could easily lose them. Both American and British specialists cut across the desert, came across Iraqi patrols, who quite logically began to catch them, entered into battles, and even several groups were defeated.
But it is impossible to say that everything was useless. Finding themselves in a classic situation for SAS fighters, the British began to do what they did in World War II in Africa - searching for airfields and directing nix there. And they did it “excellently”; at the airfields in the rear (that’s what the Iraqis thought), the commandos burned more planes and helicopters than the entire Coalition aviation. Well, really, why not carry the explosives back on yourself?
And one of the groups, taking advantage of the help of the local population, entered Iraqi territory and destroyed the Scud control center there. We worked on the assignment a little.
One can recall the work of the SAS against al-Qaeda in Afghanistan in 2001, when the largest operation since the Second World War was carried out. The target was an opium processing plant and a nearby factory for the production of equipment for suicide bombers, on the territory of which a logistics center was also located weapons center. Everything was underground, in caves and, of course, simply perfectly guarded.
They worked almost blindly, the area was quite deserted, and Al-Qaeda responded to the appearance of aircraft and UAVs by curtailing its production and quickly evacuating. The only thing we could count on was the help of the locals.
And under such conditions, Operation Trent was carried out. Eight special forces troops were dropped from a great height from the belly of the Hercules and prepared the runway for transport aircraft. 12 C-130s from the same Bagram airbase landed in the desert and dropped off an SAS company in jeeps, motorcycles and buggies.
The special forces traveled a 200-kilometer route, waited for American pilots to strike the area, and then began clearing the area. As a result, the objects were destroyed and the caves were cleared. True, the leaders of this place were able to leave it.
In general, during their “work” in Afghanistan, SAS special forces, together with their colleagues from American special forces, completed more than three dozen missions of various types.
"Row" (2003), when the paratroopers actually opened the way for troops to Basra, and then captured the road crossings across the border. "Moshtarak" (2010), when the Coalition tried to behead the Taliban. I tried - because it didn’t work out very well. “Toral” (2015), there, however, all the burden fell on the Afghans, but they were commanded by the British and Americans.
But it would be especially worth paying attention to the “work” of the union of the groups “Black” and “Delta Force” in Iraq during 2004 – 2008. The plan was good - to destroy the al-Qaeda leadership. Lime to the roots, so to speak. And almost two hundred covert specialists killed more than four thousand Iraqis in five years. Naturally, based on “intelligence”, absolutely without trial or investigation.
There were many scandals, everything was there: hostage taking, ransom demands, elimination of political and financial competitors. Well, specialists behaved in much the same way in other places: in addition to Iraq and Afghanistan, SAS were noted in Djibouti, Sierra Leone, Yemen, and Libya. And it is the SAS specialists who are credited with capturing Colonel Gaddafi.
To be fair, it is worth mentioning failures.
There was such an operation, “Gideon”. This is the year 2020, when certain forces decided to give a kick to President Maduro, who went a little (in the opinion of that side) in the wrong direction. But alas, the opposition, which insisted that all they had to do was start, and the whole country would throw Maduro into the dustbin of history, trivially deceived (it’s familiar, right?) the overthrowers.
In short: the “liberators” on high-speed boats were met on the shore by pickup trucks with heavy machine guns from the Venezuelan National Guard, and the “SEALs” were intercepted by Coast Guard ships.
In short, everyone gave up.
Such a long digression from the topic serves one purpose: to give a portrait of those who trained the Ukrainian special forces who stubbornly made their way to Crimea. Yes, when the situation is hopeless, the SAS and SВS specialists can raise their paws and start talking about abstract topics.
By the way, the training course includes countering technical interrogations. Perhaps there is a clause like “Show everyone that you are mentally disabled.”
But in essence, over 80 years, SAS and others like them have only shown that they are a very serious and absolutely ruthless enemy. And as we know, the apple doesn’t fall very far from the tree.
Understanding how both SAS and SВS work, we can draw one conclusion: they don’t just barge into that particular area. Apparently, “friends of friends” are waiting for them there, with transport, and perhaps even as guides. And these people are clearly from the current population of Crimea, with Russian passports and a seemingly impeccable past.
And to find such “sleepers” who are ready to help a sabotage group for a decent reward or (as an option) for a comfortable life in Europe... Sorry, in the current realities it is not only easy - it can be done effortlessly.
And it’s not that I want to indiscriminately accuse the entire population of Crimea. Of course not. There were those who did not want to change their ensign to the tricolor, and who left. And there were and are those who have nowhere to leave and don’t want to. Because everything acquired is here in Crimea. And there were more than enough such people at anti-Russian rallies in that memorable 2014, wasn’t there?
So, according to the style of work of SВS, the goal was not a photo shoot, but, most likely, coastal batteries of the Bastions or radar. Air defense facilities, whatever you want. What could the “patrol” reach with the help of the local population, who knows every path.
This is exactly how the SAS operated in Iraq and Libya. Exactly. And I don’t understand why their students should act differently.
But just like that, for the sake of a photo or two, even with an ensign on the “occupied” land of Crimea, to ruin a dozen and a half trained professionals - oh no, I don’t believe that. Yes, you can plan an operation poorly, as happened in Venezuela, everyone makes mistakes, but the experience of the British commandos - forgive me. It's even difficult to drink it.
The stars aligned in such a way that the Ukrainian students of the British commandos were unable to complete the task assigned to them. But it is already clear that they will continue to try to fulfill it. So, there is confidence in that. This means they are expected there, and they are expected for a reason.
And that’s why the Ukrainian military man is talking nonsense about a photo shoot. And it will continue to bring joy to many. Well, of course, they are so stupid... And the fact that this stupidity is the result of special training - who cares?
Something else is interesting (to smart people): what is the goal of the naval special forces in Crimea? And how long will the resources of the 73rd Naval Special Operations Center be? These are two very difficult questions, since any maritime specialist is the fruit of a long time of preparation. Very few countries can afford to train a naval special forces soldier in order to lose him in an ill-conceived operation.
And such units are not staffed with mobilized people recruited from the streets. Means? This means there is more than enough work for counterintelligence.
Let's think about this for a second: how many people must be involved in order for the “squad” to reach point X? I don’t know “seals” or “seals”, alas. There is a sniper. An ordinary sniper from the Airborne Forces. I asked him, by analogy, how many people should ensure that the sniper pair reaches the position? He replied that depending on the enemy, his literacy and training - from squad to platoon.
And how many people should work on the topic of landing a DRG by sea behind enemy lines?
Indeed, in addition to the usual technical specialists who are responsible for the delivery vehicles (boats, jet skis, etc.), the gunsmiths who take care of the weapons will also be not quite ordinary. That is, radio intelligence, satellite surveillance specialists, operators drones, signalmen. And – those who are responsible for working with agents. That is, by those very recruited assistants.
And here's one more thing. Moment of verification. These gentlemen from the same Fort Liberty (until 2023 we knew and respected it under the name Fort Bragg) or Hamworthy Barracks (this is SBS), more than intelligent masters of their sabotage business, they really do not like to lose their dear specialists in all plans . Therefore, they also do not really trust those recruited on the enemy side. There may (quite logically) be people from counterintelligence (which is what happened in Venezuela), or they may have been converted, and in general counterintelligence could have worked “excellently.”
To do this, reconnaissance is sent ahead of the landing group. Moreover, this is done as secretly as possible, that is, scuba divers on underwater delivery vehicles. And so they check the area for anything unnecessary, and then join the main group. In Venezuela, all this somehow did not work, but the point is that there is a protocol for action.
Two things can be taken away from this.
First: Crimea has been and will be a place of increased attention. As Putin’s personal project, as the main positive thing he accomplished during his long reign. And that’s why they won’t leave Crimea alone. The attacks will continue, and here it’s not even a question of what troops are stationed there and how many Black Sea Fleet ships are based, the question is also a political one.
Second: to regard the enemy as a herd of clinical idiots is sabotage. Yes, there are more than enough “gifted” people on the other side, but not all Ukrainian military personnel, and especially special forces, are such. And they have very good teachers who will do everything to ensure that their students do not disgrace their teachers.
If the enemy sends such large groups of trained specialists to Crimea, this is not being done for the sake of photo sessions, this is being done within the framework of certain plans. And DRGs are definitely accompanied by all possible technical means of support.
Crimea will continue to require increased attention, and our counter-operations specialists will have a lot of work to do here. Against a very prepared and trained opponent. We can only believe that our specialists are no worse, and even better than foreign ones.
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