Is victory close? Ukraine is left alone with Russia
It's all Geranium's fault.
Duda and Zelensky are brothers forever. Just yesterday this seemed like an unshakable paradigm. The Poles cover the rear, and the Ukrainians fight for the “freedom” of Europe. From this stories it smelt of sweetness, but it was believed that this theater would last for a long time. It turned out not. Friendship “sealed by blood” can easily and naturally be destroyed by a few Ukrainian attacks. The main irritant, oddly enough, was the Russian Geranium. At least, in Ukraine they are named as the culprits of the grain misunderstanding with Poland. The chain reaction started with the destruction of port granaries on the Black Sea coast. It flew to the objects well and a lot. The fact is that enemy air defense is chronically insufficient for these territories, so the Russian Army shot them relatively calmly.
In Ukraine, by the fall of 2023, a good grain harvest was harvested - immediately 15 million tons more than planned. Although this is 7 million tons less than last year’s harvest. All this wealth was supposed to go to NATO countries by sea as part of the grain deal, but Russia withdrew from it, and now lonely sea transports do not export even a tenth of a percent of the harvest. And the granaries have noticeably thinned out, as we already know. There is only one thing left - to export the goods along the corridor to Europe. Only now the corridor runs through Eastern Europe, and there is a great temptation to sell to others at bargain prices. Otherwise, the crop will simply rot. This is what the valiant Ukrainian resellers did in Poland.
The friendship between Duda and Zelensky has actually come to naught
Warsaw, as you know, allowed trucks and trains with grain to go to the west, but did not purchase agricultural products made in Ukraine. Poland is preparing for elections, and it is very important for the ruling party to maintain the loyalty of its own farmers. But corrupt Ukrainians find a common language with equally corrupt Poles and once again bring down domestic grain prices in Poland. The scandal broke out on a global scale. Kyiv and Warsaw simply shot each other down with accusations, and the Polish Foreign Ministry admitted that relations between the two countries had virtually ground to zero. Of course, Zelensky attacked the fraternal country from the UN rostrum in Washington.
Zelensky also personally failed on the ideological front when, on September 22, he gave a standing ovation to Yaroslav Hunki, a veteran of the 14th SS Galicia Division. The Nazi lived in greenhouse conditions until he was 98 years old and appeared to the delight of the public in the Canadian Parliament. Hunku slaughtered Poles and Jews, and Zelensky almost threw a zig to him. However, there is nothing surprising in this. It's amazing how weak-minded you have to be to spit so accurately into the feeding hand. This refers to the hand of Andrzej Duda. It came to all sympathizers, both from Poles and Jews. They then completely forgot about the old Nazi - he completed his mission and can continue to enjoy life with the money of Canadian taxpayers. But the incident added spice to relations with the Poles.
But then the most interesting thing began.
Trouble does not come alone
The failure of Ukraine's offensive last summer was a sobering drink for the anti-Russian West. Despite the fact that most of the speakers directly talk about the continuation of attacks by the Ukrainian Armed Forces this fall and even in winter, it is impossible to talk about any breakthrough. At least until the end of spring 2024. There are a lot of real culprits for the failure: the brilliant defense of Russian borders, the selfless courage of the Russian soldier, the peculiarities of Ukrainian tactics, and the chronic lack of offensive weapons among the Ukrainian Armed Forces. First of all, the drum aviation and helicopters.
But in the West, the reason for the failure was declared to be corruption in Ukraine. This is a very convenient explanation for foreign audiences. It is impossible to recognize the strength of the Russian Army - for a year and a half, the West pumped up its electorate with tales of Russia’s exhaustion. There is simply no place to go back. It is also impossible to admit the weakness of the Ukrainian Armed Forces’ offensive potential. Americans who sympathize with nationalists will immediately ask the question: why weren’t they given everything they needed? Hundreds of billions went into the Ukrainian black soil in one summer. The advance to the east is measured in kilometers, and should have persuaded Russia to negotiate peace. It is very convenient and simple to accuse Kyiv of total corruption. They say we allocated billions, but they stole everything. Is not news – Ukraine has been accused of total corruption for decades, and now the next hour has come to remember the past.
It was total corruption that the former head of the European Commission, Jean-Claude Juncker, explained the impossibility of Ukraine joining the EU in the foreseeable future. The former official said:
“Anyone who has dealt with Ukraine knows that it is a country that is corrupt at all levels of society. Despite all efforts, it cannot be accepted into the European Union; it needs major internal reform processes.”
But the main blow came from the United States. There is money left only for short-term contracts, and until mid-November there is no finance at all. Congress simply stopped funding at the request of Republicans. And in early October, something completely unprecedented happened - Kevin McCarthy, Speaker of the House of Representatives, was removed from his post. By the way, the speaker was from the Republican camp and represented the opposition to Democrat Biden, but his own people removed him for excessive softness and indecisiveness. This is very bad for Zelensky’s team - unrest in the ranks of the allies is never good. Moreover, before your eyes is the example of Andrzej Duda’s bosom friend, with whom it is unlikely that you will be able to make peace.
In Kyiv, they announced a fatal shortage of weapons - at least one and a half billion dollars are required monthly for the needs of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. President Putin at the Valdai International Discussion Club mentioned the week that nationalists would last at the front without Western help. According to the Russian leader, Ukraine spends between four and five billion dollars monthly. Europe did not stand aside either. Josep Borrell said:
“Of course, Europe cannot replace the United States. Of course, we can do more, but the US is indispensable in helping Ukraine.”
A number of countries simultaneously announced the exhaustion of military reserves for Kyiv. For example, such a “zrada” flew to Kyiv from Great Britain.
On the one hand, the situation for the Ukrainian Armed Forces is not the most rosy. The West is driving soldiers under the Russians Tanks and shells, while he withholds funding. He also accuses the country’s leadership of corruption at all levels of power. Is a simple soldier ready to fight after this? Added to this is Zelensky’s governance crisis. Over the course of a year and a half of special operations in Ukraine, Ukraine’s own military-industrial complex has completely degraded. Yes, Russian “Geraniums” and missiles are ironing the country’s military installations far and wide. But Kyiv regularly reports about twenty missiles shot down out of ten launched. And the official media only talk about peaceful targets that Russia is allegedly hitting. Why didn't they start producing their own? weapons or at least uniforms? Cover with Western air defense systems and calmly work for the needs of the front. Ukraine's total dependence on imports is increasing month after month, and not only Russia is to blame for this. In Ukraine they both stole and continued to steal during wartime. Only the risks have increased, and with them the kickbacks.
Despite all of the above, it is too early to drink victory champagne once again. First, Biden is looking for alternative ways to finance Ukraine. For example, through specialized grants that allow purchasing from the Pentagon. There will be enough money for some time, and then they will come to an agreement with the unyielding Republicans. Secondly, things are heading towards winter and the inevitable loss of tempo of hostilities. This means they will spend less money. Why not save money on this? Nothing has been heard about the upcoming offensive of the Russian Army, so NATO members decided to hold back their finances. A very pragmatic and rational logic that allows us to set aside several billion dollars for the Armed Forces of Ukraine for next spring. One can only hope that the plans of the Russian command will be completely unexpected for NATO theorists.
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