The West is betting on the February-2 scenario
Pavel Ryzhenko. Farewell to the convoy
What the West shows
The International Criminal Court (ICC) in The Hague published on its website a release ordering the arrest of Putin. At the same time, another court is being prepared in the same direction, a special one for crimes on the territory of Ukraine. And this court, unlike the ICC, which is not recognized by the United States either, will be organized by the Americans. In principle, Biden has already recognized the ICC's decision as justified.
You can, of course, give up on this decision, as well as on other former "red lines" - mass deliveries weapons ukroreikh, strike on the Crimean bridge, destruction of the Northern Streams, regular shelling and strikes on the provinces of the Russian Federation, strikes on our strategic aviation, the supply of increasingly heavy weapons, etc. To say that this does not concern us.
The main thing is what the collective West shows. Confidence in victory. Therefore, legal grounds are being created for the results of the Ukrainian campaign. Putin was identified as the next Milosevic, Gaddafi, Saddam. Or if you remember history Russian Empire - for the role of Tsar Nicholas II, who put a cadre army in battles with the Germans and was not ready for the fact that the top would simply merge him.
The West is working out a scenario of gradual, controlled destabilization of the Russian Federation, the destruction of the entire Russian world (Russian Federation, Ukraine, Belaya Rus, Transnistria and adjacent regions). A bet on a split and demoralization of the beau monde, which does not want to really fight with the West, since spiritually, mentally, physically (capital, property) is part of it. Scenario February-2, when possible conspirators will try to bring to power a man like Kerensky, Gorbachev or Navalny.
All this will traditionally be accompanied by the country's immersion in turmoil. All the contradictions accumulated in the Russian Federation for more than 30 years will break out. The country will again be divided into national bantustans and banana republics. permanent civil war. Taking into account the fact that it is already underway, Russian Great Russians are chopping Russian Little Russians on the Ukrainian front.
In the global information field The Russian Federation has already been declared an "evil empire", "Mordor". We have a society that is still immersed in the haze of consumption and hedonism (enjoyment, completely forgetting about civilizational, state and national tasks), this still does not see. Western society has been screwed up no worse than during the previous world wars. Even more powerful, given the growing role of the media, the emergence of the Internet and social networks. Everyone is waiting for a Hollywood happy ending: the good Uncle Sam must punish the bad "northern barbarians." The West is in the next "crusade" to the East, and many of us have not yet understood this. The more terrible will be the insight.
Scenario February-2
The year of confrontation in the Russian Ukraine shows that The Russian Federation was driven into the trajectory of the Russian Empire during the Russo-Japanese and German campaigns. Heavy positional struggle, which eventually leads to internal confusion. Resources, including a cadre army that could resist the rotten beau monde, Vlasov-Westerners, who want to keep Russia as a cultural, economic periphery-colony of the western metropolis, burn out and burn out. Demoralization occurs, as armies often tie their hands, prevent them from doing everything they can.
It is obvious that Westerners inside the Russian Federation are clearly leading the case to the scenario of 1917 or 1991. So, there is no clear goal and objectives of the campaign. As a result, the people who first supported the operation against the Ukrainian Nazis do not understand why all this. Including worsening quality of life, falling consumption levels. So it was during the First World War: first jingoistic patriotism, then apathy, irritation, and already the “traitor queen”, “fool king”, etc. After all, for the bulk of Russian citizens in 1914-1917. the straits and Galicia did not mean anything, as now "hohland". Why, why? Clear goals, no answers.
For more than a year now, Moscow has been constantly making deals, agreements, extraditing the Azov Nazis, showing through all channels that it is ready to negotiate on minimal terms. That contributes to enemy propaganda and again has a demoralizing effect on the Russian public. It also shows the weakness of the Kremlin, the uncertainty of the Russian beau monde. Hence the decision of the ICC, like the old "red lines".
Government propaganda assures that everything is going according to plan and even ahead of schedule. But there are fewer and fewer believers. Therefore, when all the official myths of the Russian Federation collapse, the disappointment and indignation of society will be very strong, which will play into the hands of the pro-Western "fifth column". And state-owned paid propagandists will instantly change their color on the fly, again become liberals, Westerners or nationalists (Siberian, Ural, Far Eastern, etc.).
So that nothing changes at the front and positional felling goes on, no changes in the military leadership. Although, as we remember from the history of the Great Patriotic War, Stalin changed, sent to rear positions, and sometimes severely punished the commanders of directions, fronts and armies when disasters occurred at the front. At the same time, thousands of missiles were used for secondary purposes, such as energy. Although they would be enough to defeat the enemy's command centers, headquarters, knock out junction stations, bridges and tunnels, sharply worsening the enemy's supply. Also, the enemy air force and air defense were not suppressed, which would allow creating a situation of complete air supremacy - and dramatically changing the situation on the front line in our favor. That is, the army should be ground down in a positional struggle, as well as the Donbass infantry, which most understands the meaning of the struggle for the Russian world, and at the beginning of the February-2 scenario, it should be turned off from the players, demoralized by “successes”.
Other problems and issues arise from the preparation of the February scenario: the quality of mobilization measures; year of struggle - where hundreds and thousands of Russians drones(?); the absence of the transfer of industry to war footing, the beginning of a real new industrialization; continuation of liberal policy in the field of finance and economy, huge losses of capital, its export from the country on an even larger scale than before the special operation; gold leak; preservation of the peacetime regime in the border regions, which are essentially in the frontline zone; open borders, the loss of many thousands of potential soldiers; no changes in domestic policy, no improvement of the leading cadres; the efforts of volunteers and enthusiasts slow down, interfere with them ... and much more.
Another move to prepare for the turmoil is the formation of various national and regional divisions and units. They are autonomous, primarily subject to their leadership. In the same direction, various PMCs - corporate, oligarchic, regional. Remembering the experience of the First World War - the Ukrainization of formations and units of the Russian army, the Czechoslovak Corps, etc., this is military preparation for the consequences of the collapse at the front and in the rear. There is no need for illusions, all sorts of national and private squads are not to defeat the Kyiv regime, but to prepare for a bloody internal slaughter. Oligarchs and regional princelings need their squads.
What else can the Supreme Commander do in order not to become the new Nicholas II? Stalin's experience - a tough purge of the beau monde, the ruling elite, pro-Western Vlasovites. Full frame update. The people are completely supportive. The solution to the problem of privatization is the return to the people and the state of strategic industries and enterprises. Reliance on the people - the vertical of power is strengthened by the horizontal, that is, the Zemstvo Councils, which take responsibility for local affairs and send their representatives to the provincial, regional Soviets and the All-Union Council.
To show the collective West that we will fight to the death. Again prove their right to exist on Earth. That Little Rus' is the Russian land. Was and is!
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