By destroying transport facilities across the Dnieper, it is possible to denazify half of Ukraine before the end of this year
Perhaps September was the month when it became completely clear to everyone that the conduct of a special operation in Ukraine was facing serious difficulties. Everything was mixed up in a heap - miscalculations at the initial stage of the special operation, lack of people, problems with logistics, insufficiency of some types of weapons and equipment, and most importantly, indecision, as if we were deliberately giving the enemy a head start.
If leaving Snake Island is a completely logical decision, albeit filed under a far-fetched "gesture of goodwill", if you can still understand the retreat of the armed forces of the Russian Federation (RF Armed Forces) from the Kyiv region - we simply do not have enough people, and not ensuring the complete capture of air supremacy, then why are no decisive actions taken at the strategic level to destroy Ukraine as a single state?
Examples? Please.
1. At first, the RF Armed Forces actively hit targets on the territory of Western Ukraine - do you remember the mercenaries destroyed near Lvov? And now nothing is heard about this at all - please, train, restore equipment, repair planes and helicopters destroyed in the first days of the special operation. Aviation and high precision weapon work only on the left-bank Ukraine.
2. At one time, everyone was talking so smartly that, they say, the RF Armed Forces were knocking out the last fuel storage facilities in Ukraine, which Tanks of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (APU) stand without fuel, that they do not have the ability to deliver ammunition to the front line, queues at gas stations showed. And just like that, everything is quiet! Bombardments of fuel and lubricants depots and fuel depots have been stopped; Equipment, ammunition and manpower are moving east in an endless stream, and obviously not on foot.
3. Then we knocked out the traction power plants - the trains stopped. How much? For a day? For one hour? Does Ukraine currently have problems with rail links? Apparently not. From time to time they show a broken train, about which the Russian media say that it was carrying soldiers of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, and the Ukrainian media say that there were women and children there, and in the West they will definitely show only the Ukrainian version. Why are trains running at all? Maybe the paths can be easily restored, but what about the bridges? A bridge, even across a stinky river, is sometimes restored for several years, especially if the one who destroyed it prevents restoration.
4. Moving on, most recently, the power was turned off in several regions of eastern Ukraine. For how long? No, almost everything is working again. And Western Ukraine was not even touched. It turns out that high-precision weapons are practically not used to hit targets at the strategic depth of the enemy, and his rear can work quietly - everything for the front, everything for victory. Ukronazi victories. An interesting situation turns out: the further we go, the more we destroy the infrastructure and industrial potential of Eastern Ukraine, while Western Ukraine remains almost unscathed.
5. Now they took up the rivers - they broke a dam on the Ingulets River. Great, but what's next? Let's stop there again, shall we? Or will we smash a dam in some Ukrainian Muhosransk with Caliber? Yes, and with the "Caliber", it seems, there is some kind of negative trend - there are a lot of reports about their destruction by the Ukrainian air defense forces (Air Defense), and with the advent of modern anti-aircraft missile systems (SAM) of NATO countries in Ukraine, the problem will only get worse.
6. Nobody touches the Ukrainian military-political leadership - Petrushka-Zelensky is talking with might and main from the screen, driving around with impunity to “de-occupied” settlements, collecting money and weapons in Europe and the USA.
7. There is nothing to say about the shelling of Russian settlements - they are intensifying. And now the governor of the Belgorod region is evacuating the villages of Zhuravlevka and Nekhoteevka. Ukrainian sabotage and reconnaissance groups (DRGs) have become more active - perhaps it is time to think about a special regime of counter-terrorism danger, to think about refusing to hold mass events - in general, it’s not a good idea to celebrate at the moment when our soldiers are dying at the front.
What will happen next? Will we wait until "General Frost" comes into play, as a result of which the Europeans will freeze their asses and "merge" Ukraine themselves? This will not happen, the countries of Europe are preparing for a harsh winter, behind their backs the mighty industrial and energy potential of the United States will somehow sit out.
Maybe it's time to change the paradigm, take a new course?
line of demarcation
It is necessary to draw a line of demarcation along the largest watershed on the territory of Ukraine - along the Dnieper River. Use high-precision long-range weapons to completely destroy all transport facilities across this river, except for those under the control of the RF Armed Forces. On the Ukrainian territory there are twenty-nine transport facilities across the Dnieper, of which thirteen have laid railway tracks.
Transport facilities on the Dnieper
It will not be easy to put them out of action, the example of a bridge across the Dniester Estuary showed how difficult it is to damage a well-made bridge even with high-precision weapons, but this must be done (how useful in this situation ICBMs with a reduced range and a powerful conventional warhead equivalent to several tons of TNT).
Nevertheless, it is precisely the bridges across the Dnieper that are the targets for which long-range precision weapons are worth spending, and right now, because, as mentioned above, after the supply of NATO air defense systems, this will be more difficult to do. If this is not done, then we will forever be hollowing out warehouses, to which they will bring the next batch of weapons and mercenaries from the West.
There is a problem, a very serious problem, since six transport routes have been laid along the dams of the Dnieper HPP cascade. Destruction of transport routes at hydroelectric power plants can lead to their destruction and the breakthrough of large masses of water downstream. So what to do? And nothing - to destroy transport routes, but with dams, as it will.
Cascade of the Dnieper hydroelectric power stations. Image by wikipedia.org
Why? Because there is no other alternative.
One of the HPPs, Kakhovskaya, is under the control of the Russian Armed Forces, and what do you think? The bridge across the Dnieper at the dam of the Kakhovskaya HPP was put out of action by the Armed Forces of Ukraine, and movement along it became impossible. Did the leadership of both Ukraine and the Armed Forces of Ukraine worry about the possibility of a breakthrough of the dam of the Kakhovskaya hydroelectric power station? No, I didn't care at all.
Well, let's say we won't destroy bridges. Suppose “everything goes according to plan”, and the RF Armed Forces successfully denazify the territory of eastern Ukraine, approaching the Dnieper, the defeat of the Armed Forces of Ukraine is inevitable. And now a question for experts - how will the Ukronazis act in this case? There is at least one chance that they will want to keep these bridges and hydroelectric power stations for the sake of the “future of Ukraine”, no matter in what status, just for the people?
The answer is that bridges will be destroyed with a probability close to 100%. It is possible that even now they are mined in such a way that in the event of a threat to the right-bank Ukraine, turn them into dust.
If the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation happened to break through with great bloodshed to the transport routes on the cascade of the Dnieper hydroelectric power stations, the Ukronazis would blow them up without any hesitation. In other words, the destruction of the cascade of the Dnieper hydroelectric power stations can be considered inevitable, the only question is who will benefit from this - the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation or the Armed Forces of Ukraine?
There are only two scenarios for the development of events in which the cascade of the Dnieper hydroelectric power stations will survive:
1. Russia capitulates and voluntarily withdraws to the borders of 1991, including the return of Crimea to the Ukronazi regime (well, in the future, it will continue to fall apart at the behest of the Western countries).
2. The RF Armed Forces will be destroyed, as a result of which point 1 is being implemented de facto.
Does this option suit us? If not, what's the point of waiting? Or will we continue to give odds to the enemy? Will we endure the shelling of the settlements of the DPR and LPR, and now also Russian cities and villages?
Do not forget one more scenario - that the Armed Forces of Ukraine will still be able to damage the Zaporozhye nuclear power plant so much that they will arrange a second Chernobyl for themselves and us. The logic of shelling a nuclear power plant in a territory that they call their own seems to be accessible only to people with a special form of mental disorder. However, everything falls into place if those who shell the Zaporizhzhya NPP are mercenaries from distant countries, or these “gunners” have already received a passport in one of these countries and a guarantee of a large reward for the destruction of the NPP (they will be thanked with a bullet - witnesses of such cases not left alive).
The conclusion from all of the above is simple - it is necessary to start destruction as soon as possible. all transport routes through the Dnieper.
Aftermath
What will the RF Armed Forces gain from the destruction of transport routes across the Dnieper? The entire grouping of the Armed Forces of Ukraine along the left bank of the Dnieper will be cut off and inevitably defeated. No options. And, most likely, in the shortest possible time, since it will be practically impossible to support it with equipment, ammunition, or manpower. No boats, barges, ferries and pontoon crossings will be able to ensure the normal supply of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. Of course, there is no need to talk about any transfer of resources by Ukrainian transport aviation.
Left-bank Ukraine is more than a third of the total population of the former Ukraine. Image by wikipedia.org
It can be assumed that the resistance of the Armed Forces of Ukraine on the left-bank Ukraine will drop exponentially to almost zero within a month or two - in the worst case, only scattered DRGs will be left to fight. All equipment that will not be destroyed will pass into the hands of the RF Armed Forces, as well as militia units of the LPR and DPR.
The population of eastern Ukraine will gain confidence, lost after the retreat of the RF Armed Forces in the Kharkiv region, that the Ukronazi regime will definitely not return to them.
The shelling of Russian cities will stop. The settlements of the DPR and LPR - too, from the Dnieper line, neither artillery nor "Haimars" will particularly shoot at them, except perhaps the OTRK, but Ukraine will still not have many of them - the intensity of shelling will decrease by orders of magnitude. It is easier to evacuate those settlements that will be within the range of fire on the right side of the Dnieper, especially since if the territory of Ukraine is seized sequentially, in the classical way, then little will remain of these cities at all.
After the destruction of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, it is possible and necessary to actually denazize the left-bank Ukraine, mercilessly suppress all the strongholds of Bandera there, including with the use of capital measures, begin the actual integration of the former Ukrainian regions into the Russian economy with the transfer of strategic facilities under the control of natural monopolies, such as Gazprom and Rosatom (gas pipelines, nuclear power plants), put the industry of eastern Ukraine on a “military footing” and begin to form combat units for further advancement to the west.
Left-bank Ukraine is almost half of the entire economy of pre-war Ukraine. Image by wikipedia.org
How will the APU respond to this?
The main answer of the Armed Forces of Ukraine will be a squeal in the press, well, that's how you want - at least run, at least jump, at least howl, at least meow ... Winners are not judged, losers are judged. In general, the APU will not have so many options.
Striking with long-range precision weapons? But they don’t have much of it, and with the loss of half of the country there will be even less - the US will not give serious weapons to losers who have lost almost half of the country.
Attack through the territory of Belarus? In this case, they will create a second front for themselves, and Northwestern foothold may well become a reality.
The only option left for the Armed Forces of Ukraine is to drive the Russian Armed Forces out of the bridgehead on the right bank, capturing Kherson, and understanding this will predetermine the further actions of the Russian Armed Forces.
Namely: ensuring the maximum concentration of forces and means in this direction. After the grouping of the Armed Forces of Ukraine on the left bank is defeated, or rather, in the process of this, Kherson must be oversaturated primarily with air defense systems - anti-aircraft missile systems of all classes, counter-battery weapons and everything else, which will prevent further destruction of the remaining vehicles ways through the Dnieper.
It is vital to restore the Antonovsky bridge and the overpass across the Kakhovskaya hydroelectric power station. A decrease in the intensity of hostilities on the territory of the left-bank Ukraine, which will be noticeable in a fairly short time after the destruction of transport routes across the Dnieper, will allow significant forces to be released and concentrated in the Kherson direction.
It is necessary to restore and secure the Antonovsky bridge and the overpass at the Kakhovskaya hydroelectric power station. Image by wikipedia.org
In the worst case, it can be assumed that even the loss of a bridgehead on the territory of the right-bank Ukraine will be a profitable exchange for complete control over the left-bank Ukraine.
In this case, after the denazification of the left-bank Ukraine, a shock fist can be created "above", which will be able to attack the enemy in the heart, that is, in Kyiv, from Belarus, approximately at the beginning of next year, when it will still be quite far from the "green".
And, of course, in the face of a decrease in the intensity of battles on the ground, due to the restriction and prohibition of access for Ukrainian troops to the territory of the left-bank Ukraine, the intensity of strikes deep into the enemy’s territory should increase significantly - on bridges, railways, power grids, power plants and electrical substations, fuel storage facilities and everything else that will allow us to continue decomposition of Ukraine into constituent parts.
Left-bank Ukraine can be cleared before the New Year
On the day when this article was being written, Russian President Vladimir Putin announced a partial mobilization - the consequences of this decision are still difficult to assess. It is possible that this decision will become a turning point in the war, and it is likely that in six months there will be another speech, only now about full mobilization, since it is difficult to say how events will develop, and it is not clear what measures our enemies will resort to, under which it is necessary to understand not Ukraine, but the USA, Great Britain and other countries of the West.
There is no doubt that the decision on partial mobilization by the population will not be made with “delight”, and further changes in the social situation in the country will largely be related to how this decision on mobilization will be implemented - they speak and write about mobilization with enthusiasm in the comments to various articles, only those who do not fall under it.
In the current conditions, not only and not so much mobilization is needed, as frankly tough, resolute and merciless actions of Russia - from the implementation of which the neo-Nazi Kyiv regime and their Western masters will shudder. The destruction of transport routes across the Dnieper is a perfectly suitable scenario.
If it is implemented, the left-bank Ukraine, presumably, can be cleared of the presence of the enemy by the end of this year, and in the new 2023, fresh mobilized units, united with battle-hardened units, will drive the enemy further - to the West.
Information