Military Review

“Be sure to bang, but later”: prospects for nuclear escalation in Ukraine

48
Source: discover24.ru



Plausible, but not inevitable


US rhetoric regarding the possibility of nuclear conflict is becoming increasingly tense. One of the spokesmen was the RAND Corporation, a non-profit organization that serves as a strategic think tank for the US government and the Pentagon. Some of the firm's projects are classified, but a simple review of the official website speaks of the broad specialization of RAND. The portfolio includes projects on energy, ecology, education, health, and even on ethnic oppression.

Ukraine has long been in the focus of analysts, but from a rather peculiar point of view. More precisely - under the typical Western. RAND diligently ignores the war crimes of the Kyiv regime, while deliberately denigrating the Russian special operation. For example, in the analytics of the office there is not a word about the terror of the population of Donbass - about regular shelling of cities, about anti-personnel mines from the sky, and so on. In any other scenario, the opinion of American analysts must be treated with a certain degree of skepticism, but some reports require attention. Especially related to the nuclear threat to humanity.

At the end of July, a study was published on ways to further escalate the conflict in Ukraine, where special attention is paid to Russia's response. The West will not directly intervene in the conflict - this has already become an axiom, but the establishment is seriously afraid of a preemptive strike on real "decision-making centers". What will be the red line for the Kremlin? The supply of long-range missiles for HIMARS or the concentration of NATO strike force on the borders? Or will it be enough to continue pumping the Kyiv regime with Western weapons under the current scheme? Such difficult questions were asked by RAND desk analysts.

Source: paranormal-news.ru

The most pessimistic scenario, according to American researchers, will be the preservation of the existing status quo, which already involves a Russian strike on NATO infrastructure. That is, the Kremlin is ready at any moment to bring down the entire potential of the Strategic Missile Forces in response to existing sanctions and Western assistance to Ukraine, if the latter are not lifted. RAND sees this as a Russian retaliation, with the initial strike being "non-kinetic," according to the report.

That is, the information structure of NATO countries and sympathizers will become the first objects of attack. From myself, we can add that Russia may well initiate nuclear tests in the classical sense of the term. For example, somewhere in neutral waters. This, of course, will reduce the effect of surprise, but should sober up the overly presumptuous hotheads of the Pentagon.

To implement nuclear escalation scenario No. 2, NATO forces need to convince the Russian military-political leadership of the inevitability of a strike on the army on the territory of Ukraine. RAND explains very interestingly why the Kremlin will resort to nuclear weapons in this case. The rhetoric is as simple as five kopecks - Russia is running out of cruise missiles, so there is simply nothing to hit NATO headquarters with conventional weapons.

Only ballistic missiles remain, or, at worst, Iskanders with nuclear-powered Zircons. The only thing left for the Europeans and the Americans to figure out is how to convince the Kremlin that direct attacks on Russian troops in Ukraine are out of the question. RAND proposes to stop rocking the public opinion of the West regarding the "atrocities" of the special operation - a stream of lies can provoke a request for third countries to intervene in the conflict.

The most frenzied part of the collective West has already exhausted the diplomatic and economic levers of influence on Russia, so the temptation of a military scenario may arise. According to the authors of the report, the Kremlin is very closely monitoring public pressure on the "decision centers" and, as soon as the line is crossed, warheads will fly towards NATO. Or, in a mild version, Russia will organize a massive cyber attack on the enemy’s military communications, coupled with the destruction of the satellite constellation.

The constant increase in the NATO military contingent on the western borders of Russia can also provoke the use of non-strategic nuclear weapons. The alliance says that these are completely defensive steps, but the Kremlin rightly regards them as an aggressive build-up of the offensive potential. Does NATO HQ know where the red line is in this situation? I really want to believe that they know.

Hands off Ukraine


The third option for the escalation of violence, which does not exclude the preventive use of nuclear weapons, could be the continued military assistance of the West. In this regard, strikes on logistics centers in Europe are considered unlikely by RAND, but supply routes in Ukraine could fall under crushing blows. Everyone remembers the words of the Supreme Commander-in-Chief that "Russia has not really started anything in Ukraine yet."

Western medium-range and long-range air defenses, as well as long-range missile systems, can provoke a reaction from the Kremlin. It is this escalation scenario that is now very beneficial for Zelensky. First, beg the West for the most dangerous weapon, fall under the preemptive strikes of the Russian army, and then complain to the whole world about another round of bitterness in the hope of even more import aid.

American analysts are very afraid of Russia's strategic defeat in Ukraine - according to researchers, as soon as the army begins to roll back to the east, a series of attacks on "decision-making centers" will follow. Interestingly, RAND does not rule out a sabotage war in the rear of NATO - warehouses with weapons and ammunition destined for Ukraine may fly into the air.

Scenario No. 4 of the coming apocalypse, according to American analysts, includes Russia's internal problems. Indeed, this is a theater of the absurd, if anti-government protests in Moscow can become the reason for the destruction of Washington and New York. RAND, of course, is a respected office in certain circles, but often their millions are worked out there in bad faith. However, analysts by this fact indirectly confirm that the Western elites support the overthrow of the Russian leadership. We can recall Biden's words at the beginning of the special operation about the "need to overthrow" Putin. The old man, of course, later denied such plans, but these words were certainly heard in the Kremlin. And now RAND advises the leaders of countries to talk less. Very fair and timely, I must say.

What to do?


RAND proposes "golden rules" in relations with Russia.

The first is to publicly and constantly tell the Kremlin about the impossibility of open NATO intervention in the course of the special operation.

The second is to show in every possible way that the West is building up an exclusively defensive potential on Russian borders. Americans should think about the advisability of deploying strike assets aviation и fleetcapable of a disarming strike on the military-political leadership of Russia.

The third is to disperse the channels of military assistance to Ukraine so as not to create a temptation for the Russian military to interrupt the flow of weapons with two or three strikes.

Fourth, stop talking about the need to change Russia's leadership. This also applies to the political leaders of the West, and the media. Bite your tongues, gentlemen, to put it simply. Military analysts also warn of a so-called “creeping escalation,” when the West’s artificial prolongation of the Ukrainian crisis entails the Kremlin’s gradual confidence in the inevitability of a war with NATO. And if you have to fight one way or another, then why not strike first.

RAND's analytics are certainly worth taking note of - this is an important puzzle in the picture of understanding the Western perspective. It is worth finishing the material with a recent statement by our Supreme Commander-in-Chief, which resonates with the conclusions of Western analysts. On August 1, at the opening of the X Conference to review the operation of the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons, President Vladimir Putin mentioned in his message that

"There can be no winners in a nuclear war, and it must never be unleashed, and [the Russian leadership] stands for equal and indivisible security for all members of the world community."
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  1. Vladimir Vladimirovich Vorontsov
    Vladimir Vladimirovich Vorontsov 5 August 2022 11: 03
    -3
    “Be sure to bang, but then”:

    ***
    And elsewhere...
    ***
    1. Ilya-spb
      Ilya-spb 5 August 2022 13: 04
      -5
      Is the capitalist West sobering up? Does not look like it...

      For the final sobering up of the Western establishment, tactical nuclear weapons must be used. Near the Lviv region.
      1. Mikhail Sidorov
        Mikhail Sidorov 5 August 2022 18: 49
        +1
        For the final sobering up of the Western establishment, tactical nuclear weapons must be used. Near the Lviv region.

        First you need an ultimatum and nuclear blackmail. If the deliveries continue, the places of accumulation of weapons in Poland and Romania will be destroyed. This should have been done yesterday.
      2. MauZerR
        MauZerR 11 August 2022 10: 44
        0
        These are the military (or experts close to them). These always differ in the adequacy in the assessments of the consequences.
  2. paul3390
    paul3390 5 August 2022 11: 05
    +2
    And why guess - is it not easier to ask the leadership of the Russian Federation where these very red lines lie? Until now, they seem to have explained everything intelligibly on this score. And the fact that they did not believe - so who is to blame?
    1. carstorm 11
      carstorm 11 5 August 2022 11: 17
      -2
      Rockets at 300 km. The Kursk and Rostov nuclear power plants will immediately come under attack. This will not be allowed. And knowing that the leadership there is completely inadequate, this will have to be stopped without much pity. Actually, the appearance of such weapons is possible and the beginning of the NWO.
    2. Romario_Argo
      Romario_Argo 8 August 2022 12: 22
      -1
      The Armed Forces of the Russian Federation will not even use tactical nuclear weapons against the Armed Forces of Ukraine
      The Armed Forces of Ukraine have already digested almost everything.
      another month and Donbass, Kharkiv, Nikolaev, Odessa will be liberated
      the front will stretch from 1000 km to 3000 km
      - the Armed Forces of Ukraine now do not have enough strength
  3. rocket757
    rocket757 5 August 2022 11: 08
    +4
    RAND proposes "golden rules" in relations with Russia.
    So the instigators are still the same ... although they are ready to roll back at any moment when they sense that they, those to whom they advise, can knock their horns one, two!
    In short, another weather vane, although they call it quality analytics ???
  4. tralflot1832
    tralflot1832 5 August 2022 11: 16
    +1
    They have some kind of scanty analytics, nowhere is the USA and England mentioned as the main villains, only in a coalition. And in general, this article is for an inflamed American brain struck by Western propaganda. Some articles of the Western press can only be read by taking it on the chest. But there is a danger of sleeping.
    1. t-12
      t-12 5 August 2022 11: 34
      +4
      Some kind of analytics they have is scanty
      This is not an analytics, but a text for the public, a brief summary of non-secret provisions.
  5. kakvastam
    kakvastam 5 August 2022 11: 24
    +2
    It is interesting that RAND does not rule out a sabotage war in the rear of NATO - warehouses with weapons and ammunition destined for Ukraine may fly into the air.

    Fantasts, akin to our "experts". In Ukraine, they don’t fly for some reason, but in a much more complex environment they suddenly fly.
  6. nikvic46
    nikvic46 5 August 2022 11: 26
    +6
    When a country looks powerful, it will never talk about war, about epidemics. It will simply do its job. In such a country, people are unanimous. We know that there will be no winners in this war, and we are constantly talking about it. Nothing good can be expected.
  7. Engineer
    Engineer 5 August 2022 11: 31
    0
    It turns out again that NATO is scared to the bone in its pants of any kind of direct conflict with Russia. Contrary to the cries of individual "experts" with VO
    No hardcore, just hybrid warfare.
    However, there can be no grounds for excessive optimism on the part of the Russian side.
    Ukraine is like the NEP. "Seriously and for a long time"
    1. Vlodek
      Vlodek 8 August 2022 08: 42
      +1
      Do you remember how long the NEP lasted and how it ended?
  8. tihonmarine
    tihonmarine 5 August 2022 11: 31
    +1
    For example, in the analytics of the office there is not a word about the terror of the population of Donbass - about regular shelling of cities, about anti-personnel mines from the sky, and so on.
    And they don't see it:
    Russian specialists found opioid drugs and ephedrine substances at the positions abandoned by the Ukrainian military, said Lieutenant-General Igor Kirillov, head of the radiation, chemical and biological defense forces of the Russian Armed Forces.
    “Special attention should be paid to the facts of detection of narcotic drugs, including opioid drugs, such as methadone, codepsin, codeterp, as well as ephedrine substances: t-phedrine and triphedrine, at the positions left by the Ukrainian military,” TASS reports his words. .
    1. Mishka78
      Mishka78 5 August 2022 12: 31
      0
      Quote: tihonmarine
      And they don't see it:

      For them, this is the norm. They kept their soldiers on drugs since World War II. And in Vietnam and Korea and Iraq and Afghanistan.
      https://news.ru/weapon/pentagon-amfetaminy-modafinil/
    2. gsev
      gsev 5 August 2022 19: 27
      +1
      Quote: tihonmarine
      .Russian specialists found opioid drugs and ephedrine substances at the positions left by Ukrainian military personnel,

      All participants in the Kyiv Maidan to overthrow Yanukovych, who ate free food and were tested for the presence of drugs in the body, were recognized by doctors as drug addicts. Apparently, after serving in the Armed Forces of Ukraine, the entire million serving Ukrainians will become drug addicts and people with a disturbed psyche and ruined health.
  9. max702
    max702 5 August 2022 11: 40
    -4
    There will be no nuclear war .. There will be nuclear peace enforcement .. And soon ..
  10. Horon
    Horon 5 August 2022 11: 51
    +4
    Fourth, stop talking about the need to change Russia's leadership.

    This means that they will stop discussing it publicly, but they will not stop doing it.
    "There can be no winners in a nuclear war, and it must never be unleashed, and [the Russian leadership] stands for equal and indivisible security for all members of the world community."

    This does not mean that the enemy will not do everything to win in a non-nuclear way.
  11. acetophenone
    acetophenone 5 August 2022 11: 53
    -6
    Here are those times ... But to me, for example, it seems that it will certainly be unleashed and there will be winners in it. The statement of our esteemed leader must be treated ... Well-balanced, let's say so. It is known that he is still ... a politician. And what do politicians do when their lips move? lol
    1. Flooding
      Flooding 5 August 2022 12: 05
      +2
      Quote: acetophenon
      The statement of our esteemed leader must be treated ... Well-balanced, let's say so. It is known that he is still ... a politician

      Depends on which country you are writing from.
      1. tihonmarine
        tihonmarine 5 August 2022 12: 44
        0
        Quote: Flood
        The statement of our esteemed leader must be treated ... Well-balanced, let's say so. It is known that he is still ... a politician

        Depends on which country you are writing from.

        And who is he, this "our"?
        1. Mikhail Sidorov
          Mikhail Sidorov 5 August 2022 19: 20
          +2
          And who is he, this "our"?

          Who are you Mr Putin? laughing in my opinion, in the year 2000, articles in the west came out with this heading.
      2. kulemin0025gmail.com
        kulemin0025gmail.com 5 August 2022 13: 12
        +2
        Do you still have doubts? ))
  12. Doctor
    Doctor 5 August 2022 12: 20
    -1
    Nuclear weapons are now like chemical weapons during the Second World War. Stalin did not risk it, even when the Germans stood near Moscow and everything hung in the balance.
    Is there enough darling now? Far from a fact. winked
    1. kulemin0025gmail.com
      kulemin0025gmail.com 5 August 2022 13: 14
      -1
      Do you want to? Have you tried treatment?
      1. Doctor
        Doctor 5 August 2022 18: 16
        -3
        Do you want to? Have you tried treatment?

        Don't want to at all. I mean, you don’t even have to rely on nuclear weapons. Consider that we do not have it. belay
        1. kulemin0025gmail.com
          kulemin0025gmail.com 5 August 2022 19: 05
          -1
          Count what you want. But like in that movie, remember, I hope: "Do you see the gopher? And I don't. But he's there." Make a conclusion how to get warm))
          1. Doctor
            Doctor 5 August 2022 19: 47
            +1
            Count what you want. But like in that movie, remember, I hope: "Do you see the gopher? And I don't. But he's there." Make a conclusion how to get warm))

            Sense from him, from a virtual gopher. winked
            If vukry with the West behind their backs begin to squeeze out the Crimea and go to our borders, what, we'll hit? I doubt. Yes, and you too.
            Did not try to be treated?

            Then we are outlaws. Even for the Chinese.

            So, they say there is a gopher. But you won't be able to touch it.
            1. kulemin0025gmail.com
              kulemin0025gmail.com 5 August 2022 21: 34
              -1
              If we "hit", then to whom will we be outside the law? Have you thought about it? If someone "hit" - forget about the laws.
              1. Doctor
                Doctor 6 August 2022 17: 21
                +1
                If someone "hit" - forget about the laws.

                Yes sir. And what, our leadership is REALLY ready for this?
            2. kulemin0025gmail.com
              kulemin0025gmail.com 5 August 2022 21: 49
              -2
              About the extraction of the Crimea, are you kidding? Or do you have hope?
              1. Doctor
                Doctor 6 August 2022 17: 10
                +2
                About the extraction of the Crimea, are you kidding? Or do you have hope?

                Are you already celebrating your victory? It is good to. But.

                In 1994, 1,5 million lived in Chechnya, it was a republic of Russia, the population was essentially Soviet (except for the rabid ones), a partisan organization of the Armed Forces, weapons with a gulkin nose, support - the radical wing of Islamic countries. Bottom line: 3 years of fumbling and a dubious victory.

                40 million people live in Ukraine (estimate the mobile resource), it is de jure a separate state, the population of forty and younger perceives itself as an independent nation, full-fledged armed forces, they will be supplied with as many weapons as you want, the whole West will support them.

                We climbed into the biggest wreck since the 2nd World War.
                And while no one knows how it will end. hi
                1. Vlodek
                  Vlodek 8 August 2022 08: 53
                  0
                  Akhmat is now clearing the ukrobes not even badly. Chechnya survived the "inoculation" of Nazism, developed immunity.
                  Probyvat shake the Russian Federation on confessional grounds-always probyval. Since the times of the USSR. In Chechnya, it turned out, provided that the drunkard EBN was at the helm. Now it's not like that.
                  I do not argue, with Ukraine it will drag on for a long time. But this plague will be cured. The lesson of hushing up Bandera's exploits so as not to embarrass the "brothers" has been learned. On occasion, they will poke their faces into the shit that they have been doing for more than a dozen years. As for fun, Achilles were slaughtered by prisoners and forced to flee, shooting in the back. Every school will have a poster: your ancestors are fascists - remember this! How they exalted themselves, so they should feel
    2. Mikhail Sidorov
      Mikhail Sidorov 5 August 2022 19: 24
      +1
      Is there enough darling now? Far from a fact. winked
      This thought worries me greatly. Will the leadership have enough zhory at X-hour.
      1. Doctor
        Doctor 5 August 2022 19: 56
        +3
        Is there enough darling now? Far from a fact. winked
        This thought worries me greatly. Will the leadership have enough zhory at X-hour.

        What is considered "hour X". US nuclear attack on us? NATO entry? It will not happen.

        Their plan is a long, painful confrontation between two branches of one people with mutual exhaustion. Like Israel and Palestine, Kosovo, and even Ireland. But on a huge scale and for decades.
        To do this, you only need to throw sticks into the fire and periodically inflate. Weapons, money. In the end, it's still cheaper for them than to fight on their own.
  13. DenVB
    DenVB 5 August 2022 12: 43
    -9
    In this regard, strikes on logistics centers in Europe are considered unlikely by RAND, but supply routes in Ukraine could fall under crushing blows.

    It is high time. Large bridges are an excellent target for tactical nuclear weapons. A minimum of victims (and we are still not cannibals), and at the same time a good effect on weakening the enemy.
    1. Mikhail Sidorov
      Mikhail Sidorov 5 August 2022 19: 28
      +4
      It is high time. Large bridges are an excellent target for tactical nuclear weapons. A minimum of victims (and we are still not cannibals

      Are you talking about Ukraine? Maybe we won't pollute the Russian land with radioactivity.
      1. DenVB
        DenVB 5 August 2022 20: 32
        +1
        Quote: Mikhail Sidorov
        Are you talking about Ukraine? Maybe we won't pollute the Russian land with radioactivity.

        Radioactivity decays over time. But Ukrainians themselves will not disintegrate.
  14. odometer
    odometer 5 August 2022 13: 34
    +8
    In the comments about nuclear weapons, as always - trash, waste and sodomy ... And especially stubborn people just want to hit ... What do the poor have in their heads? winked
  15. Maks1995
    Maks1995 5 August 2022 17: 53
    +2
    Well, Simonyan poured out her opinion that the GDP could bang in Ukraine, now we have to urgently translate the arrows.

    Either the Angles, it turns out, could shove the cores of the loaves into the MRIYU, then in the USA, someone incomprehensible is afraid of a vigorous blow. Moreover, sometimes our various commentators about nuclear weapons repeat supply strikes.

    As small Analytics - Maybe. But it would be better if the Collective Simonyans did not mention nuclear weapons.
    1. Cananecat
      Cananecat 5 August 2022 22: 09
      0
      Quote: Max1995
      Well, Simonyan dumped her opinion that the GDP can bang in Ukraine

      This is either the delirium of a drunken maiden or an attack on the fan for banderlogs, which would mean to bring them to panic
  16. know
    know 6 August 2022 12: 43
    +3
    Putin has already marked the "red lines" so many times, and the Ukrainians have crossed them so many times... Empty threats to respond to the shelling of Russian territory. Empty threats to strike "decision-making centers", which ended with a Ukrainian strike on the decision-making center in Sevastopol.
    And all this against the backdrop of an unprecedented withdrawal of the capital of the oligarchs (are not afraid of sanctions - have you already agreed?), Encouraged by the central bank Nabiulina, once again bleed Russia. Replacement of the development of own production by the organization of smuggling under the shameful name "gray import".
  17. Comrade Kim
    Comrade Kim 7 August 2022 00: 10
    0
    Quote: Arzt
    Think we don't have it

    Offend.
    We doubled the norms for the deployment of RD. Everything is brought to automaticity. If they received an order, they would leave. And then reload.
    1. Aag
      Aag 8 August 2022 09: 04
      0
      Quote: Comrade Kim
      Quote: Arzt
      Think we don't have it

      Offend.
      We doubled the norms for the deployment of RD. Everything is brought to automaticity. If they received an order, they would leave. And then reload.

      "...RD..." Divisions?!
  18. Santa Fe
    Santa Fe 7 August 2022 11: 31
    0
    Arrivals in Kharkov again fellow

    It is necessary to bomb non-stop and hit Kharkiv with Soltsepek flamethrowers. So that not a single Bandera member leaves the city alive
  19. EvilLion
    EvilLion 8 August 2022 08: 06
    0
    When there is nothing to write about, but it is necessary to write.
    Excuse me, what are you talking about. What is Ukraine, and what is the world. For some reason, we believe that Russia is such a navel of the Earth because of the actions of which, even if they do not go beyond its historical borders, the world will start a nuclear war. Yes, there are a lot of wars going on in the world right now, and no one cares, no one lifts a finger, except for direct interested parties.
  20. Alebedev
    Alebedev 8 August 2022 15: 19
    -1
    Quote: Arzt
    what, let's hit it? I doubt
    It doesn't matter that we doubt, the main thing is to screw up ...