Russia's neighbors in the east

Part two. Comparison of the Russian Federation with its neighbors (southeast - east)

В previous section I reviewed some aspects of the development of the dynamics of Russia and our most powerful neighbors in Europe and the Middle East over the past 20 years.

I will leave an array of conclusions on these parameters for the third article of the cycle - today we will talk about our southeastern and eastern neighbors.

After listening to the suggestions of readers and agreeing with a number of them, I decided to somewhat expand the format of numbers in this article - I removed something, replaced something. Also, wherever, in my opinion, it is interesting, I will indicate hyperlinks to the data, and if the links are not indicated, the information is taken from the sources at the end of the article.

In view of the expansion of the format, it is worth supplementing the statistics for the Russian Federation that appear in the last article.

RF

GDP at PPP (hereinafter - P) 2000 - $ 1 billion GDP (nominal, hereinafter - N) - $ 635,3 billion

GDP (P) 2020 - $4 billion, GDP (N) - $096 billion

Demography 18-30: ~24 million people. (approximately equal number of men and women).

Productivity - from 25,1 to 30 dollars per hour (hereinafter, labor productivity reflects the volume of GDP generated by each worker for one hour of work, at current prices, at PPP).

Inflation ruble from 2000 to 2020 - 585,82% (Calculator. Alternative Calculator. Exact values ​​by years).

Tourism income (hereinafter only international tourism) - $ 17,67 billion.

Cultural spending (2020) – 144 rubles (culture and cinematography) - of which 127,9 billion rubles (~1,8 billion dollars) for culture, 11,9 billion rubles. (~0,2 billion dollars) for cinema, 0,5 billion rubles. (~$80 million) for cultural research. Total ~$2,1 billion

Area - 17 km² (especially for bookworms - the author has no idea with or without Crimea).

China (PRC)

The population of China in 2000 is 1,2 billion people, in 2020 - 1,424 billion people.
On the part of some international institutions, there is a certain distrust of all kinds of statistics from the PRC, including demographics. There are opposing opinions - some believe that the PRC underestimates the number of its population, others - that it overestimates. One way or another, these numbers are impressive, as is the growth over 20 years.

The UN population forecast for 2030 is 1,441 billion people, for 2050 - 1,364 billion people. Thus, the UN believes that the population of China will stabilize as a minimum, and as a maximum, it will begin to decrease.

Demography 18–30 (the author extrapolated similar data for the Russian Federation (0–15 versus 18–30) – and if the ratio is correct (0–15 is 10–15% more than 18–30) – about 240 million people aged 18-30 in the total specified sample (from 14 to 64 years old - 1,06 billion people) Within the sample, there is an approximately equal number of men and women, with a slight preponderance (~ 8%) towards men.

GDP at PPP 2000 - $3 billion (GDP (H) -$660,7 billion), in 1 - $205,5 billion (GDP (H) - $2020 billion .

Productivity - there are no clear figures for this parameter in Runet, a very rough estimate is given by a comparison of the known ratios in the table - ~15–18 USD/hour.

Inflation 2001-2020 - 57,28%.

Over the past three years, there have been some trends in the slowdown in GDP growth (but this is still the kind of growth that can only be envied).

defense spending in 2000 - 52,179 billion dollars, in 2020 - 252 billion dollars (1,7% of GDP). The funds available to China are huge, its budget is not transparent, and its statistics are controlled by the CCP. The growth of the PRC military budget is increasing every year.

Citizen science spending in 2000 - 89 billion dollars, in 2020 - 400 billion dollars (or 2,5% of GDP (N). Figures as a percentage of the state budget for science are steadily growing.

Armed Forces in 2000 ~2,5 million people, in 2020 - 3,5 million people. It is difficult to estimate the reserve of the PLA, this figure is probably not lower than 20-25 million people.

Import 2009 - $1 trillion, 2020 - $2 billion

Export 2009 - $1 billion, 201 - $2020 billion

average salary for 2020 ~$890.

Tourism income (2020) ~$47 billion.

Area - 9 km².

South Korea

Although South Korea is separated from us by the DPRK, and it can hardly be considered our potential competitor, it is worth considering its potential and economy for reasons that I will mention in the third part of the article.

Population 2000 - 47 million people, in 2020 - 51,5 million people. It can be seen that, despite the limited space, the population of South Korea shows a positive growth trend.

UN forecast for 2030 - 52,7 million people, 2050 - 50,5 million people.

Demography 18-30: ~7–8 million people.

GDP at PPP 2000 - $790 billion (GDP (H) - $576,5 billion, 2020 - $2 billion (GDP (H) - $310 billion) There has been some plateau in the last three years.

Productivity - $42/hour.

Inflation 2001-2020 - 62,08%.

defense spending in 2008 - 28,94 billion dollars, 2020 - 42,7 billion dollars (2,8% of GDP).

Citizen science spending 2000 – very approximately $6 billion, 2020 ~$67 billion In a number of sources there was a figure of 4–4,5% of GDP (H) spending on civilian science and R&D.

Armed Forces stable with some increase: for 2020, this is about 700 thousand people in the ground forces and more than 4 million in the reserve. Given the difficult relationship with the DPRK, in fact, the South Korean army is probably more combat-ready than formally.

Import 2009 - $323 billion, 2020 - $467 billion

Export 2009 - $363 billion, 2020 - $512 billion

Tourism income - $ 26,217 billion.

average salary - 2 900 dollars. However, shock. However, South Korea has a progressive income tax (6–42%), the middle class falls under ~15% and, alas, the author does not know whether this amount is net of taxes or not.

Area - 100 363 km².

Japan

It is worth taking a closer look at this state, so there will be a little more statistical data.

Population 2000 - 125,3 million people, 2020 - 125,9 million people.

UN forecast 2030 - 121,6 million people, 2050 - 108,8 million people.

Demography 18-30: ~18–20 million people.

These figures show that the Japanese islands have been overpopulated for a long time, since, despite the high standard of living, most Asian states show a positive growth trend.

GDP at PPP 2000 - $ 3,4 trillion (GDP (H) - $ 4 billion, in 968,4 - $ 2020 trillion (GDP (H) - $ 5,3 billion) Some plateau since 5.

Productivity - $48,3/hour.

Inflation yen from 2000 to 2020 - 2,14% (yes, the author did not typo). Inflation for 2020 in Japan amounted to 0,027%, in general, until recently, in this country it was possible to observe the reverse process to it, the so-called deflation. Prices for goods and services could decrease over the years.

With defense spending, the Japanese have been shady for quite some time. So, there is a figure of 1% of GDP, but 3,5% also comes across.

defense spending in 2000 ~$42 billion, 2020 - $50 billion. Probably, real defense spending is much higher, and the Japan Self-Defense Forces themselves are increasingly resembling a full-fledged modern army.

Citizen science spending for 2000 ~ 3% of GDP (H), i.e. very approximately about $ 100 billion, 2020 - ~ 3,14% of GDP or about $ 130-150 billion. In the world statistics of government spending on science (in numerical terms ) Japan ranks third (after the US and China), but it is not easy to find clear data on these spending, probably due to the internal specifics of the distribution of funds.

Armed Forces for 2000 ~300 thousand people, 2020 - about 300 thousand people. The number of military personnel underwent some fluctuations in the early 2000s. Apparently, at the moment, Japan quite firmly adheres to a qualitative view of its armed forces, since there are constitutional restrictions left over from the end of World War II.

Import in 2009 - 551 billion dollars, 2020 - 635,5 billion dollars.

Export for 2009 - 580,7 billion dollars, 2020 - 641,3 billion dollars.

It can be seen that Japan's imports and exports have stabilized for quite a long time, although in the 2010s there was a period of explosive growth (up to +25%) of these values.

average salary – $3 (probably before tax).

The Japanese industry deserves special attention - shipbuilding, automotive, aviation, robotic and electronic. The country has a complete (or close to it) cycle of enterprises and technologies, allowing it to create the entire range of military and civilian high-tech products. In 2004, Japan accounted for about 45% of the world's industrial robots. At the moment, Japan is probably behind China in this parameter - however, Japan itself ranks first in the world in exporting these products.

Japan's tourism income for 2019 year ~$49,2 billion.

Area - 377 944 km².

USA

Population for 2000 - 282 million people, 2020 - 331,5 million people.

UN forecast for 2030 - 354,7 million people, 2050 - 389,6 million people.
As we can see, the US population is growing, both due to internal demographics and migrants.

Demography 18-30: ~66–70 million people.

GDP at PPP for 2000 is $10 billion, for 252 it is $2020 billion. This figure has been somewhat stuck since 20, fluctuating around a certain zone of stability.

Productivity - $76,7/hour.

Inflation dollar 2000–2020 - 55,31%.

defense spending in 2000 - 288,8 billion dollars (3% of GDP (N)), 2020 - 738 billion dollars (~ 3,6% of GDP). Absolutely, in general, a wild figure.

Citizen science spending 2000 ~$250 billion (this figure is very approximate, because it does not take into account the scientific spending of large US companies), in 2020 ~$530 billion (~2,8% of GDP). It should be understood that the real US spending on science will be higher, because there the figure of public funding is commensurate with the figures of private funding from transnational companies.

Cultural spending. According to some sourcesThe U.S. spends more than $60 billion annually to support culture. This is a very impressive figure, but it does not include the cost of creating film products - according to 2019, video production and distribution reached $73 billion. As far as I understand, in this The figure also includes the creation of audio products. I can't even come close to assessing the total expenses and income from American cultural activities as a whole, the numbers there will be simply shocking.

Armed Forces for 2000 ~1,2 million people, for 2020 - 1,3 million people. The reserve is referred to as 14 million people.

Import in 2009 - 1 billion dollars, in 601 - 2020 billion dollars.

Export in 2009 - 1 billion dollars, in 056 - 2020 billion dollars.

As you can see, the US is not doing well in balancing imports and exports, they have a negative balance.

Tourism income - $ 233,461 billion.

average salary – $3

Area - 9 km².

Grand total for the article

Our Far East is adjacent to the first (USA), second (PRC), third (Japan) and twelfth (South Korea) economies of the planet. Russia on this list ranked eleventh.

The population of the Far East is about 7,6-8 million people. The population of only the regions of China bordering the Far East - 102,4 million people.

At the moment, the United States and Japan are unfriendly states to us.

Many of us consider China to be something like an ally.

But, firstly, this union has not yet been officially formalized.

Second, China has territorial claims to its neighborswhich pop up from time to time. Among these neighbors are the CSTO states (Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan).

Thirdly, and finally, the objective difficulties of such an alliance are indicated by how story Soviet / Russian-Chinese relations, as well as the extreme disproportion in the adjacent regions: both demographic and economic.

South Korea does not currently pose a direct threat to us, but the author believes that the potential unification of the two Koreas in the future is quite likely. In this case, our neighbor will be a state with more than 75 million inhabitants, a nuclear missile weapon, a powerful military industry, a strong economy and army, as well as sufficient crowding on their own territory.

At the moment, without exception, all of the above states are serious economic competitors of the Russian Federation in the regional and global markets.

Figures, ratios and analytics on neighborhood issues will be discussed in more detail in the third article of the series. In the next article in the series (1, 2) we will consider the parameters that are desirable for Russia in the XNUMXst century, from the point of view of survival and competitiveness.

PS

The author expresses his heartfelt gratitude to his readers for constructive criticism and suggestions. Special thanks to: Mitroha, "Ingvar 72", Vintorez, Vavilov, "Depressant", "A. Privalov", BAI - for additions that expanded the informativeness of the general data.

Still welcome your constructive comments!

Продолжение следует ...

Comments

[Doccor18]

The number of armed forces in 2000 was ~2,5 million people, in 2020 - 3,5 million people...

Very dubious...
The PLA over the past two decades has carried out a number of reforms, the purpose of which was, first of all: to increase the mobility of troops and increase the technical level. All these reforms were accompanied by a general reduction in the size of the army.

The modernization of the PLA was carried out and is being carried out against the background of a significant reduction in its numbers. It is known that the current military reform will be accompanied by a reduction in the number of the PLA by 300 people. Xi Jinping announced this on September 3, 2015.

If in 1985 there were 4,5 million people in the ranks of the PLA, then in 1991 there were already 3 million, and by 2012 2 million people. Apparently, at the moment, after the reduction of the armies of the ground forces, the number of armed forces of the PRC does not exceed 28 million people.

[Civil]

Well, the author did not indicate the most important thing - this is the exodus of the Russian population from the Far East ...

[Knell wardenheart]

Unfortunately, I already see that the links to a couple of good sites "went" :( I apologize for this in advance.

[Anachoret]

Of course, China should not be discounted in terms of possible expansion)
But it’s not worth overestimating it, as the author of the article) in the north, within its borders, China is not particularly populated to “look over the fence”), and China’s “statistics” can raise a lot of questions, since the country is almost completely closed)
For example, let's take the city of Heihe, which borders Blagoveshchensk) based on China's statistics and Wikipedia data, 1,6 million people live there) but the residents of Blagoveshchensk who have been there) offhand this figure will be reduced by 10 times) at least)))
As for North Korea), I think it was in vain that it was discounted and given to China) Russia is interested in the existence of two Koreas for security purposes and the author correctly emphasizes this)))

[Knell wardenheart]

As long as we sell China what it wants, everything is really magical. As soon as (and if) we need a significant part of this ourselves (well, suddenly we wake up and want to drive over the hill not only resources and provisions) - this is where problems can already begin, especially if the moment of our awakening coincides with the moment of China-West pressing . The PRC can solve its problems with us more harshly, and the West will not interfere with it, for obvious reasons.

[Anachoret]

I also agree with this) but neither we nor China itself needs a confrontation now)
But the solution of the issue with Taiwan is much more important for them) since in the current trade and technology wars, China will deprive the West of the advantage in chips (even if the TSMK factories) will be smashed to pieces by one of the parties)
But we shouldn’t relax either and build, first of all, civilian infrastructure in the Far East) so that the population drain stops)

[Whatman]

China does not own the production technology of modern processors. Trump has greatly undermined the business of Wowei (Huawei) with his sanctions. China has learned and is now investing tens of billions in an attempt to catch up with the leaders.

[Nyrobsky]

Quote: Knell Wardenheart

here problems can already begin, especially if the moment of our awakening will coincide with the moment of pressing China-West. The PRC can solve its problems with us more harshly, and the West will not interfere with it, for obvious reasons.

It remains to answer the question - Why? If, as you write, "pressing" begins, then at that moment any country needs an ally. Why would China spoil relations with an ally, albeit a situational one? In order, after Russia, to become a priority goal for the West, which will never forgive it for the fact that communist China has become a dangerous economic and military competitor and has swung at the "hegemon's cap." Let's just say, a very controversial statement

[Knell wardenheart]

Let's imagine a situation. Let's assume for a moment that the PRC continues to build up its forces and at some point a "final decision" is made there to invade Taiwan and some other things that annoy them for the company to do. The West is forced to react - the focus of attention of world politics and stockbrokers is drawn there. In the West, they understand that things smell like fried - we are one thing, with our endless "nuclear war", another thing is the PRC, which has the second fleet of the world. In the face of such a situation, so that we do not play pranks and do not create a second front, we are thrown a bone, large and crisp, which we have been waiting for a long time - but with a condition. The condition is simple - since we "seem to not" have an official alliance with the PRC, would we be so kind as long as this whole bodya "do not pander to Chinese militarism" lasts in the name of peace, the lives of small children and other blablabla that the Americans love so much in their pathetic speeches. Accordingly, the question will be posed the way they are very fond of posing it - either we are with Sothona, or we are not with Sothona. Considering that crisp bones have not been thrown to us for a long time, there is a high probability that that part of our elites (rather big, by the way) who have houses and business interests in the West "kakbe will hint" not to tempt fate, not to bet on stunted a horse, etc. - in general, a little throw away from China. We don't really like him, to be honest. At the household level and in power. On camera, yes. But on the sidelines .. And now, we are making such a "goat" for the PRC. And the PRC has a choice - either to chew it and remain in a long conflict with the West without resources (and they will not have resources, Australia will not sell them, their sea routes from Africa and the Persian Gulf will be cut in an instant), or to break through the flabby Far Eastern bodies of a neighboring state , having previously thrown us some kind of epic ultimatum (or without it). In this case, the West will not be eager to get into a conflict, because in operations against us, the Chinese fleet will be occupied, frankly, minimally, which means that for any operations against the PRC, you will have to cut it inside the waters saturated with Chinese bulk bases, Air defense and other delights. Before you land the largest landing force in the history of the galaxy and fight the largest mobilized army on the planet, of course. By this time, we personally will have long gone through all the baldness (already) to the West, and he will be happy to look at all this with popcorn, along the way continuing the line of mobilizing his allies around the world. Maybe he won't even have to finish off the PRC - why? Having finished it, it will have to be occupied, restored, there will be a billion potential refugees. China, sandwiched in its region, is not a problem for the West. And so are we with our demographics. And together we are "friends" against the West, it is unlikely for us to stand - we have too different views on things with China.

[Dmitry_7]

It is necessary to conduct Russian-Chinese exercises on the border with Ukraine

[Nyrobsky]

With all due respect to the author, I could not comprehend the meaning that would give an answer to the question - Why? Well, why should we take a "crunchy bone" if we consistently receive finance for the supplied resources, and this process is closed for the long term? If, as you write, this will become an excuse for China to start a showdown with Russia, then again - Why do we need to issue this "invitation card" to Beijing? If we take into account the blockade by the Western forces of the sea routes along which the Chinese have 80% of the cargo traffic, including energy resources, Russia, on the contrary, increases the chances of making money on its supplies. So why cut off the head of the goose that lays golden eggs? The influence of such a factor as the "elite" with real estate and servants abroad, the argument, let's say so-so, is not tenable. If it influenced the ongoing processes, then there would simply be no tension in relations that exists today, from the word in general. Agree, there is a contradiction in the face - hand over everything that the United States and Europe ask, do as they want and there are no contradictions, but no, a rod is a drill, and therefore this formula does not hit.

[Knell wardenheart]

Everything rests on the difference in understanding of the parties. We can see in this situation a long-awaited chance for "indulgence" from the West, in contrast to which the role of one of the "central powers" in a future global war will loom. According to the indicators indicated in this and the previous article, it is quite clear that we are not ready for a world war as a global player. They can conclude that the Chinese case is still a pipe and pre-select the camp of future winners.
From China's point of view, it may look different - China will see us as a stable support for its regional plans, as shackled by the pressure of the West as it is.
An alternative to all this will be a situation in which we are trading with the main enemy of the West, having a border with NATO remote from the front (on which the PRC will not help us in any way). The West can be a serious ground threat in the European theater of war, its ground units in the confrontation with China at the initial stage will be weakly involved - many of them can and will threaten us.
In the case of profit - to whom we sell most of the mat. resources at the moment? Metals, timber, oil products? This is not China - this is the collective West. He can buy it and not from us - in LA, in Africa, in Australia, India, in BV - and transport it bypassing us through sea lanes. Our economy will simply collapse without this share. Choosing between the West and China in terms of benefits, we will choose the West, without alternatives. All political talk around this is superficial. It's about psychology and history. We stood on the side of the West during two world wars, we have no idea how it could be otherwise (contrary to rhetoric). I believe that we will yield in this situation and get our big piece. Assuming that since the hot stage of the war has not yet begun (but is already hanging in the air), China will stop and nothing will happen. Maybe so - but in this case, the PRC will inevitably begin to prepare for a campaign against us in the future, for the same reasons that Japan hit the US that separated them from resources in WW2. Or maybe it will happen right away - we have a poor understanding of the peculiarities of Asian politics and that part of it that is connected with the principle and "loss of face."

No one will let us "calmly weld" - we are too big and conspicuous a bird. Our aspirations to the West have not gone away. We are looking for ways to unleash the antagonism that has grown with the West, without having our own tools to contribute to this. We are interested in the PRC as a market, but we do not see a future with it, Eastern values ​​are rejected in our society, we do not consider the "ally" line of the PRC in relation to us to be "allied" enough to get into hell with it. It is naive to believe that the West, which organized the blockade, would begin to look at how we are selling China's resources around it - this will also be an excellent reason for the invasion, by analogy with Napoleon's reason.
I don't know how else to convey this point of view to you! You don't believe it, I believe it - I see real historical examples, like the example of the China pivot under Nixon - this is a classic model of the west's behavior in the game of "divide and conquer."

[Nyrobsky]

Quote: Knell Wardenheart

I don't know how else to convey this point of view to you! You don't believe it, I believe it

Therefore, it is hard to believe that the West, in the confrontation with China, wants Russia to be on its side, and China, in the confrontation with the West, wants the Russian Federation to be on its side. At the same time, both sides harbor the intention to make war with Russia if it takes the other side. The bottom line is that even if one of them manages to neutralize Russia, they will remain - one on one with each other. I am not very sure that one of them will come out of the battle strong, and no one knows how long this battle will last either. During this time, Russia will rise and, in turn, can pile on the ears of the weakened winner. So the scheme with fights in turn, as it were, does not correspond to anyone's interests. But the fact that the center of the world economy is shifting towards China and in general to the Asia-Pacific region, as it were, determines the further strategy of relations in which it is more expedient to transfer friendly relations between the Russian Federation and China into allied ones. All the hysteria whipped up by the United States is a consequence of the fact that they are well aware that their time is running out and they cannot offer the world something that could become attractive. Well, for rejection, they do everything themselves.
Time will show how it will be, and we will each remain with our own, which is also not bad, because then it will be clear who was right. Let's finish for this.

[Doccor18]

Quote: Anchorite

offhand this figure will be reduced by 10 times) at least)))

Vika does not mean the population of one city of Heihe (in the usual sense), but the urban district of Heihe, which, in addition to the aforementioned city, includes many more settlements (several dozen, if rural ones are included) that are combined into an urban area and five counties.

[Hypertension]

Quote: Anchorite

residents of Blagoveshchensk who have been there) offhand this figure will be reduced by 10 times) at least)))

Based on what? Did they see "the same Chinese" in different parts of the city?

[yuriy55]

...we will consider the parameters desirable for Russia in the XNUMXst century from the point of view of survival and competitiveness.

We can consider anything and any neighbors, but our main problem is the thirty-year extinction (whatever you want - you can decrease, decrease in the birth rate, decrease in the number ...) of the population.
Russia is a tasty morsel for the world community. An area rich in natural resources and minerals. The main wealth is huge sources of water. The big problem is unpopulated areas.
If someone starts to object, let him remember the territorial conflicts with the same China and Japan. The population of the Far Eastern Federal District is slightly more than 8 people against one and a half billion China, twenty-five million North Korea and one hundred and twenty-six million Japan ...
No one entertains hopes of fighting a nuclear power. But natural migration two or three million a year) can make it so that other peoples will settle in the Far East, who will not be indifferent to the fate of empty lands and their own population ...
Maybe someone is hoping for a population explosion in Russia, I can only assume a social one (if the government's social policy continues). I have good reason to expect just such an outcome of events.
I invite anyone who has a different opinion to the discussion on this issue. I just want to note that the decline in population after thirty years of "development" is not a wake-up call, it is the same "slightly hoarse whistle of a steamboat" that has run aground.

[Knell wardenheart]

I can only advise you to wait for my third and fourth articles) They will just be about this. I think you will see a lot of interesting or even consonant things.

[alekseykabanets]

Quote: Knell Wardenheart

I can only advise you to wait for my third and fourth articles) They will just be about this. I think you will see a lot of interesting or even consonant things.

Thank you for the series of articles, I will wait for the continuation.

[boni592807]

yuriy55 (Siberian), Today, 19:17, NEW - "...But migration naturally two or three million a year мcan make it so that other peoples will settle in the Far East, which the fate of empty lands and their own population will not be indifferent ...
May be, someone hopes for a population explosion in Russia, я I can only assume social (if the government's social policy continues). ..."

Dear colleague, more before officiallyand "Covid outbreaks", I came across an article that the number of official guests is 10-12 ml. , and when trying to "calculate" the debit with a loan on the basis of border guards, that is, to assume illegal on the territory of the Russian Federation, it turned out to be under 30 ml.).
Why am I!?
We take citizens of the Russian Federation by age those. DO NOT take into account pence and children under 18, only see the text of the author of the article: "...Demography in the Russian Federation, age 18–30: ~24 million people (approximately equal number of men and women)..." This is taking into account the "new Russians understand" .
We compare with the guests - young, healthy, all of military age (with a minimum age of the reserve), united (fellowship, religion). What is the relation to the indigenous..
Conclusions are up to you. As they say: "... It was NOT, it was NOT, and again again.. like in an old joke ... hello Ukrainians, well, what are you screwing up your eyes ... "
R.S. The participation of guests, active participation not only on the labor front, but also in Libya, and recently in the Republic of Kazakhstan, is not new. Yes, and in the Russian Federation they are in trend

[Doccor18]

Quote: yuriy55

I invite anyone who has a different opinion to the discussion on this issue.

There will be a discussion, because the topic is serious, difficult, and it cannot leave anyone indifferent. But there will be no other opinion different from yours.
People "disappear" in the Far East. There are many reasons for this, and the result is deplorable. What to do? And they won't do anything. Only the state can solve such problems. A powerful state, whose leadership is interested in the comprehensive development of the country and thinks half a century ahead... No business, even a very large one, can handle this MEGA task. The USSR did it then. The population of all cities and towns (including polar ones) grew. And now......

[antivirus]

I agree with YOUR CONCLUSION ON demographics.
and even worse down -- MAIN: EDUCATION FROM D \ GARDEN AND ML SCHOOL -- the subconscious, and by 30 and 50 they will be the majority ... and draft class and celestials.

that's who and how we educate today - this is how we will develop in 10-30 years. the Soviet generation will end. and GDP and the generation of "Belozerov" and so on - Soviet (from the mentality of teachers and other authorities - reference points), but then - someone else's psychology, the subconscious.

The adding machine will not replace intuition at the forks in the roads of History.


Not a rustle of midnight distances,
Not the songs that mother sang -
We never understood
Something worth understanding.
And, a symbol of mountain majesty,
Like a beneficent covenant,
High tongue-tied
You are granted, poet.

and even worse, down twice-- they are preparing new hand-knuckles (education and mentality) for European life, and then compete with the rapidly growing ASIA.
we are no longer Scythians ..... and we must look with greedy eyes at Asia, from there there will already be a threat

[businessv]

Quote: yuriy55

I invite anyone who has a different opinion to the discussion on this issue.

With such clear facts, there will be no special discussion. Here it is necessary to take into account several territorial factors. The latitude of our main, relatively "free" territory, coincides with the latitude of Canada. Despite the relative prosperity of Canada, they are not particularly eager to emigrate there because of the rather harsh climate. In this case, I mean that the PRC will rather continue its claims to the former southern republics of the Union listed in the article than begin to expand into the Amur Territory. IMHO

[Knell wardenheart]

I will not argue, in the third article that has already been actually written, I devoted a small piece to this moment. Given the ongoing climate change, there are many unpleasant forecasts for coastal cities, in which the majority of the population lives in China. This factor may in the future (not so, alas, far) greatly affect China's views on more northern latitudes (where, by the way, it will become warmer). I do not in any way overestimate the Chinese threat) But with friendly tenderness to look at a country that is ten times superior to us in demographics and four times in defense spending, it’s somehow difficult for me.

[businessv]

Quote: Knell Wardenheart

But with friendly tenderness to look at a country ten times superior to us in demographics and four times in defense spending, it’s somehow difficult for me.

I am sure that not only to you, but also to all sane people, and remembering the plans of some bureaucrats from the PRC regarding water from Lake Baikal, you start to worry at all!

[Seafood]

Despite the relative prosperity of Canada, they are not particularly eager to emigrate there because of the rather harsh climate.

Well, that's not true. If you look at the per capita figures, then Canada is even ahead of the United States by more than 2 times - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_net_migration_rate. If we take the number of residents born in another country, then this is 21.5% of the population of Canada - https://www.statista.com/topics/2917/immigration-in-canada/. In the USA, for example, it is 14.4%, and in Russia 8% - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_sovereign_states_and_dependent_territories_by_immigrant_population.

Therefore, if you look at the population of Canada, and this is a rather "small" country in this regard - 38+ million inhabitants, almost 4 times smaller than the Russian Federation - then immigration there is very high, which is not surprising because the vast majority of immigrants are economic.

[Serg Kam]

An area rich in natural resources and minerals. The main wealth is huge sources of water.

If I want to drink milk, I don't have to buy a cow.
In the case of a free sale of resources, no one needs the territory.
After all, we ourselves will extract these resources, lay transport routes, and deliver them to the border ourselves.
Therefore, while we are selling, no one will capture us (and if they capture, we will have to support both the local population and the occupying army - this is very expensive)

[Mikhail Sidorov]

Boring article. Reprint of statistical data. What is the author's opinion? Fear China.

[Knell wardenheart]

The author's opinion is that under "everything is bad" it is necessary to sum it up with numbers. And then give the numbers of what you need to have in order not to die. And then make your suggestions on how to get it. If all this is summed up in one article, another rhetoric in the style of "AAA !! Yyyy! Nuclear weapons !!! We need to give birth more" will come out. Then individual authors will again drag out a dull bodya about how aircraft carriers should be made from unfinished tankers, that we can de-contrive and build so many that the West will become scared, etc. In general, everything will remain the same. So, I have to write with numbers - so that there is no discussion "as before" - I want to bring it to a slightly more substantive level.

[alone]

Quote: Mikhail Sidorov

What is the author's opinion? Fear China.

Well, if in China the majority considers the Far East "northern territories", then you need to be afraid of it ..
Kitak has no friends, no allies .. there are temporary interests

[Knell wardenheart]

I think we should rather be wary of Japan. Relations with China are more predictable now. I would rather say China should always be kept in mind, but Japan should be looked at.

[Seafood]

Well, if in China the majority considers the Far East "northern territories", then you need to be afraid of it ..

Are there any proofs for this? I remember earlier on the net there was a fake printout of a Chinese textbook where everything belongs to China, which later turned out to be Taiwanese in general and from a part about Chinese dynasties.

Kitak has no friends, no allies .. there are temporary interests

You just described any world power. The quote about the countries is English, by the way.

[businessv]

Quote: Mikhail Sidorov

Boring article. Reprint of statistical data.

In order to reprint the data, you need to find them! It is immediately clear that you rarely do this if you cannot really appreciate the huge work done, which not everyone will dare to do. It's only as interesting as statistics can be in general and how to look at them. Can you guess how many times a day you blink? Is it interesting to know?

[Engineer]

The author is taking too long.
To begin with, it would be a good idea to ask why an article more than half of Wikipedia's statistics would be of interest to the reader.
There is such a thing - the presentation of data in a tabular form. I keep you posted just in case.
We clearly formulate the question at the beginning of the articles, summarize the data in a table. We make an intermediate conclusion. Voila, the first three articles from the series fit into one.
The internal graphomaniac must be mercilessly crushed in oneself, this is an objective shortcoming.

[Liam]

Quote: Engineer

an article more than half made up of Wikipedia statistics

And the second half is from estimates by eye of its own manufacture from the author)
Who seriously hopes that someone will remember everything. This mess of numbers and assumptions in order to be ready to discuss the next parts of the cycle with which the author threatens to please everyone

[Engineer]

This is half the trouble.
Any article on the topic "how can we equip Russia" is an unambiguous application for "golden raspberries". Therefore, the reader must be taken into circulation, offer something non-standard, awaken the imagination. The author seemed to deliberately choose to ignore the obvious.

[man]

I'm probably expressing an unpopular opinion, but of the countries listed, only China inspires me with serious concerns.

[vindigo]

South and North Korea will never unite. Try to tell a southerner that they are one people with the northerners, etc., you will get insults. Asians do not like each other there, they remember bloody debts and are not going to forget. Very unlike our relations with the Germans.