From Minimum Deterrence to Parity: Risks of China's Nuclear Program for Russia
2019 year. Parade in Beijing. Source: inosmi.ru
The most closed arsenal
News, which experts have been waiting for for several years - China has begun to build up its nuclear potential. In the Celestial Empire, they treat their own arms mass destruction and deliberately do not spread regarding the number of warheads. Of the five officially recognized powers under the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons, only China does not publish detailed statistics on the size of the arsenal. That is why there are large discrepancies in the information space regarding the real number of Chinese missiles and launchers.
The most modest analysts predict about 130 combat-ready nuclear charges, while optimists say about 900 launchers. And this is only as part of the ground component of the NAOK Missile Forces. If we put together all the analytical calculations, then the total potential of China in warheads for operational deployment is estimated at an average of 610 copies. However, the Pentagon at the beginning of the year estimated the PLA's nuclear forces at just 200 warheads. In general, a complete nuclear leapfrog.
New missile silos in China. Source: severmedia.org
The latest data from the Federation of American Scientists indicate the emergence in China of a new positioning area with launchers of intercontinental ballistic missiles.
In the desert of Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region, researchers Hans Christensen and Matt Korda have found traces of intensive construction of 110 silos. The missiles are supposed to be placed on an area of more than 800 square meters. km. All data are received from civilian visual control satellites.
Analysts suggest that the Chinese will hide in the mines the new Dongfeng 41 (East Wind) ICBMs capable of reaching anywhere in the continental United States. Actually, this is what worries the Americans.
Beijing is not just building up its nuclear potential, but is expanding its arsenal with missiles reaching the hinterland of the United States. We are ready, so to speak, to cause unacceptable damage.
And this is not the first news this year with Chinese nuclear surprises.
At the end of June, satellites discovered another 120 ballistic missile silos in Gansu province. In the city of Ylantai in Inner Mongolia, 16 underground launchers have also been found, presumably for training purposes.
China, in the best traditions of Eastern diplomacy, declares one thing, but in reality it is doing something different. The original doctrine of minimum nuclear deterrence is being transformed into a large-scale program of achieving parity with Russia and the United States in strategic terms. And if everything is clear with the Pentagon - the missiles are directed primarily against it, then with Russia everything is not so simple.
Equal play
For Russia, the growth of the Chinese nuclear potential to a parity scale carries certain threats. First of all, one will have to take into account the opinion of a powerful neighbor, not only as one of the leading financial centers in the world, but also as a dangerous military opponent. Large-scale diplomatic work will be launched to involve Beijing in arms control processes. While in this stories Americans are working without much success.
In particular, the Biden administration was eager to see representatives of China at the Russian-American consultations on strategic stability in Geneva at the end of July. Official Beijing refused, explaining this by the incommensurability of nuclear weapons stockpiles at home and in the United States. Indeed, Washington is significantly ahead of the Chinese arsenal, controlling more than 3,5 warheads in the nuclear triad.
For comparison, last year Hu Xijin, a major state propagandist, called for a short time to increase the number of warheads to 1000, of which only 100 are "anti-American" Dongfeng-41.
It seems that the story itself with the suddenly discovered mines of the PLA Missile Forces was timed to coincide with the Geneva meeting in the Russia-US format. The Americans hoped very much for the convincingness of satellite photographs and the public outcry they would cause. They were counting on Moscow, which, to a certain extent, could influence Beijing on this issue.
But China and Russia have acted on one front - if we are to expand the format of strategic consultations on limitation issues, then with the involvement of Great Britain and France. Yes, these are countries with a fairly limited offensive nuclear potential, but they are important allies of the United States.
Together, several hundred nuclear warheads from London and Paris could shift the global balance towards NATO forces. Therefore, if China is brought to the negotiating table, then only in the company of the world five.
An invitation from India, Pakistan and Israel would also be ideal. Of all the nuclear powers (official and unofficial), Beijing is the only one that has pledged not to use weapons of mass destruction against countries that do not have a nuclear arsenal. Here, and without the forced reduction in the number of missiles, the declared peacefulness is more than enough.
In the meantime, China's Permanent Representative to the UN, Zhang Jun, reasonably counters Washington's proposals:
"At the present time, China is not interested in the so-called trilateral arms control talks and will not take part in them."
Strategic bomber-missile carrier "Hun-6". Source: invoen.ru
Last year, the Americans openly blackmailed Russia, urging to persuade the PRC to enter into negotiations on the reduction of nuclear weapons. In case of disagreement, Washington refused to extend the Russian-American START-3 Treaty. Russia eventually won - and did not invite the PRC to negotiations, and extended START-3 in January 2021. There appears to be no concern in Moscow regarding the discovery of new Chinese military development. And there are many reasons for this.
Chinese puzzle
It is believed that only 20-25% of the discovered missile silos are not fake.
In an interview with the Kommersant publishing house, Vasily Kashin, Deputy Director of the Center for Comprehensive European and International Studies at the Higher School of Economics, mentioned the following:
“A significant part of the missile silos under construction are probably false positions. The Chinese have repeatedly resorted to this technique to protect their strategic forces. About half of their missile forces are construction units that engineer positions and create false positions. "
Such camouflage is a necessary measure in the event of a chronic shortage of nuclear warheads.
In the event of a first strike (from the United States, for example) on the territory of China, there is a high probability that the entire strategic defense of the country will be decapitated. That is why the PLA is so jealous of keeping the total number of warheads under wraps. Beijing's tactics are quite understandable - as many position areas with silo-based missiles, of which no more than one quarter are combat ones. The rest must die under the first blows of enemy warheads.
By the way, stationary rockets buried in the ground rather act as a psychological weapon and a potential target for a preemptive strike than an effective tool of the apocalypse. Beijing is well aware of this, expanding the share of wheeled missiles, which are not so easy to track from a satellite.
The second aspect, why Russia should not worry, lies in the location of the landfills under construction. They are pressed against Mongolia and are quite accessible from Russian territory with operational-tactical missiles.
The Chinese, in general, find it difficult to hide their arsenal from a disarming strike. On the one hand, the nuclear powers (and not the most friendly ones) India and Pakistan are backing up, on the other - Russia, and from the sea the American fleet is constantly threatened, concerned about trade routes and the fate of sovereign Taiwan. That is why most of the strategic arsenal of the PLA is now in the central part of the country in Taipei County in the warehouses of the 22nd Central Nuclear Weapons Storage Base. According to Chinese officials, all nuclear weapons in the country are stored undeployed. That is, it will not pose any danger in the event of a short-lived war.
Model of the first Chinese nuclear bomb. Source: en.wikipedia.org
And finally, the most important thing.
China has not yet formed a full-fledged nuclear triad in the modern sense of this phenomenon.
The Submarine Strategic Deterrence Force is still in its infancy. A couple of years ago, the US military reported that Project 094 Jin submarines, carriers of ballistic missiles, were not able to communicate with the operational command from a submerged position. To do this, you have to unmask yourself either by surfacing or by throwing a special buoy. And, again, if the Chinese themselves are to be believed, Project 094 boats are not equipped with ballistic missiles with nuclear warheads.
Aviation part of China's nuclear deterrent triad is also not in good shape.
The unlicensed copy of the B-2 Spirit bomber "Hun-20" is still being developed, and the product of the Soviet legacy "Hun-6N" does not pull a real "strategist". Rather, it is a heavy aircraft carrier fighter. In addition, the Chinese army, like the Russian one, lacks strategic cruise tankers that seriously expand the combat radius of bombers / missile carriers.
Despite all of the above, China is getting richer and developing much faster than Russia. This means that, given the proper level of ambitions (and Beijing has them), our neighbors will sooner or later equalize the possibilities of strategic deterrence. It is not without reason that by the centenary of the formation of the PRC in 2049, Beijing sees the country in full combat parity with both Moscow and Washington. Less than thirty years are left before the birth of the third military-political pole of the Earth.
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