More than a week has passed since the publication of the material on the aggravation of relations between Iran and Israel. During this time, the situation not only intensified, but became much more serious. Israel actually admitted its participation in the assassination of the head of the Iranian nuclear program M. Fakhrizadeh.
No, the representatives of this state did not say:
"We killed an Iranian physicist and an Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps officer."
Just in an interview with one of the agencies (NBC News), a representative of the Israeli Foreign Ministry uttered the standard phrase in such cases:
Israel "does not comment on security issues."
Agree, clearer than such a statement would be the statement that the sabotage was carried out by the Israeli special services.
Some information about the terrorist attack itself has appeared (so far at the level of rumors). Iranian media outlets close to the IR Guard Corps report that the attack itself was carried out using the most modern technologies. Almost a remotely controlled machine gun, which self-destructed immediately after completing the task. Something from a series of Hollywood action movies. Like the one where Bruce Willis is trying to kill the politician with just such a machine gun.
These rumors (at least for me personally) sowed doubt that it was the Jews who organized the attack. There are too many defiantly pointing towards Tel Aviv. As if they are pushing towards this particular version. Naturally, I cannot rule out the participation of the Israelis in organizing this provocation. But…
What's really going on? Why is Tehran, which always defiantly avenges the murders of its military and political leaders, is silent today? Why is Tel Aviv silent? At the same time, the army continues to be on high alert.
Nuclear Weapons for Iran or a Rapidly Changing Middle East
Earlier, I already wrote that the appearance of another nuclear power in the region will seriously change the balance of power in the Middle East. For most analysts, it is clear that (even with nuclear weapons) Iran will not be able to really threaten world leaders like Russia, the United States or China. The bomb will be directed against the nearest neighbors.
Another interesting detail that many do not pay attention to. The fact is that Tehran's atomic bomb will become a headache not only for Tel Aviv, but also for several other countries in the region. Simply put, it seems to me that what needs to be considered now is not the conflict between Israel and Iran, but the conflict between Iran and the United States.
If we go back to the murder of Fakhrizada, then we can see several oddities at once. Remember what began in Iranian cities literally right after the terrorist attack. Crowds of outraged people demanded retribution for this murder. Almost all of Iran has called for active action by its leaders. Doesn't the way the head of the nuclear program were buried mean anything?
After all, he received almost the same honors as the national hero, legend, almost deity - General Suleimani. Fakhrizade's body was transported with all military honors to all major mosques in Iran. Somehow it does not fit. A senior officer of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, a professor few people in Iran knew. And such honors.
What would 99% of people do in such a situation? When will the people take any forceful decision with a bang? When does the army agree to war in any format? By the way, the Iranian media (especially the right wing) actively promoted the idea of rocket attacks on Haifa. Such a step (even with the existing air and missile defense in Israel) would cause significant damage to the Israeli port. And the answer would follow instantly.
But the actions of Iran's supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei came as a big surprise to many analysts and experts. More precisely, its inaction on the outer loop. It seems to me that Ali Khamenei's response to the terror was based not so much on retaliation from Iran as on the consolidation of all Arab countries against the United States and its allies. I must say that in many ways it succeeded.
Why, if we proceed from formal logic, was it necessary to eliminate the head of Iran's nuclear program? Only in order to slow down its implementation for a while. The change of the head, the proceedings with the documentation, the reshuffle of personnel in connection with new ideas, all this takes time.
In reality, it was necessary to win at least a couple of months until the new American president starts working, until the United States fully determines its foreign policy priorities. What happened in Iran? Everything happened exactly the opposite. Ayatollah Ali Khamenei called on the people to take revenge and ...? Exactly 72 hours later, the Iranian parliament decides to restrict the work of IAEA inspectors and, most importantly, to accelerate the civilian nuclear program.
In fact, Iran has almost openly announced that it will step up work on its own nuclear weapons... Neighboring states have virtually nothing to respond to this statement by Iran. That is why the Israelis, the monarchs of the Persian Gulf and even the Americans are silent.
I do not know at what stage the development of nuclear weapons in Iran is. But I think that despite all the sanctions and other restrictions imposed on Iran, they were carried out. And today Tehran just needs to bring them out of the shadows. That is, to show in the near future what such weapons are in Iran. I have no facts confirming this statement. Therefore, this is the personal opinion of the author.
So will Mohsen Fakhrizada be avenged?
This question is probably the most pressing one today for several countries in the region. It is clear that this is especially important for Israel. It is difficult to live in constant expectation of an attack. Moreover, all the previous terrorist attacks had quite logical sequels. Iran did not just strike at any object, but carried out a rather noisy PR campaign in front of them.
A completely logical question arises: "Why did the standard algorithm of actions not work now?" After all, if we put aside the feelings and desires of the crowd, any act of revenge is nothing more than a way to save the face of the state. A beautifully crafted and well-publicized act of retaliation that doesn't change anything.
It seems to me that it's all about the price of the issue. A campaign to "reveal Tehran's plans" to strike at Israel is very active in the press. Ostensibly Iran is preparing this. And not only on the Israeli port, but also on American facilities in other neighboring countries. The analogy is clear here, journalists recalled the attack on the bases in Iraq after the assassination of Suleimani.
But what will be (not even the effectiveness of them) the response to these blows? With Trump leaving. What is not far away is the carrier group headed by the aircraft carrier "Nimitz". That there is an F-35 squadron in Saudi Arabia. I think that the option that Iran had after the assassination of Soleimani will not work now. AND aviation The United States will deal a serious blow to Iranian territory. Moreover, this retaliatory strike will be clearly directed at nuclear power facilities, research institutes and engineering development centers.
If Tehran wants to save face and its centers for the development of nuclear weapons, it simply needs to act not directly, but through intermediaries. See how perfectly the duck launched after the assassination of Fakhrizade worked about a possible attack on Israeli embassies around the world. Today they are all fortified and prepared for a terrorist attack.
The Israelites were afraid. The memory of the terrorist attacks against Israeli tourists in Bulgaria, Argentina and other countries in 2012. Only now, evidence of the involvement of the Persians in the terrorist attacks was never found. Here is the first trajectory of a possible answer. Tehran really has a very developed network of allies in different countries, capable of carrying out terrorist acts on the orders of the KSMR not only in Israel, but also in the monarchies of the Persian Gulf, in Europe and in the United States.
Moreover, it will not work to directly blame Tehran for these acts of sabotage. As you can say today:
"Allies are proxies."
You can catch them. But it is unlikely to prove that they are not acting independently.
Another way of responding to a terrorist attack is similar to a strike against Israel. But he, and not in military uniform, will be applied to the American allies in the Arabian Peninsula. By the way, the first such blow, it seems to me, has already been delivered. A short and precise diplomatic strike against the de facto ruler of the United Arab Emirates, Crown Prince of Abu Dhabi, Mohammed bin Zayedin al-Nahyan. It was with him that the head of the IRGC spoke directly about an attack on the UAE in the event of a US attack on Iran.
In parallel, the IRGC, through smaller officials, sends about the same information to other monarchies. These messages look something like this: the respected monarch understands what a "terrible future" threatens his country in the event of any deal or agreement with the "Zionist regime." Everything is extremely correct and extremely clear.
In general, knowing the mentality of the Persians, who do not differ much from the Israelis in terms of revenge, an answer to the murder of Fakhrizade will be mandatory. Iran does not forget this. Another thing is that it is impossible to predict the time and place, even the way of Iran's action. Some analysts talk about the first quarter of next year, some about the end of this - the beginning of next year. Fortune telling on coffee grounds.
It didn't dissolve ...
Many people are tired of this fuss in higher spheres. More and more often, the voices of radicals are heard, offering to resolve issues quickly, with surgical methods. I'm not a medic. It is possible (although even for me it is doubtful) that an operation on one patient can be performed by two surgeons at once, who will treat two different diseases. But in international affairs, this is a direct path to war.
As in the army, as well as at medical councils or in serious industries, the discussion is conducted exactly until the moment the senior has made a decision. After that, the performers must perform. From junior to senior. So that the task set by the head is completed.
Israel, which needed to somehow slow down Iran's nuclear program, fulfilled its task. Iran, for which the IAEA framework has already become tight and it is necessary to bring the nuclear industry (and, possibly, nuclear weapons) out of the shadows, has also fulfilled the task. Moreover, he significantly increased his influence in the Middle East, and became a truly regional leader.
The American president can now tell the world about how his heroic guys once again saved the world only by their presence. It means that it is not in vain that Nimitz and the company are burning the money of American taxpayers in the Mediterranean.
True, I have one thought, which has not yet been confirmed. But it is she who logically follows from all events. I think that another goal of Tehran may be to return to negotiations in order to fully legalize its developments on nuclear issues. Despite the seemingly utopian nature of this idea, in conditions of destabilization of the world economy and rapid political changes, this can be implemented in practice. Precisely as a counterweight to Israel.
So it's too early to guess about further events. The problems are too deeply rooted. And truly clever plans are revealed almost weekly.