Military Review

The likelihood of a military conflict between Poland and Belarus: comparing the chances of the parties

138

During the meeting of the presidents of Belarus and Russia in Sochi, Alexander Lukashenko thanked Vladimir Putin for making it clear that no one “can rattle weapons"At the Belarusian borders, since" these are the borders of the Union State. " That is so, but let's imagine for a second the situation of a military clash between Minsk and Warsaw, in which Russian military aid and NATO's participation will be taken out of the brackets. Whose chances of winning in this case will be higher?


Let's start with the simplest one - comparing the size of the armed forces of the two countries. Here Poland seems to be ahead and is increasing the gap at a faster pace. If in 2015 its army consisted of 95 thousand personnel, then by the beginning of this year this figure had increased to almost 130 thousand. Moreover, Warsaw does not hide plans to increase the number of Poles standing under arms to 200. In addition to the regular army, the country pays considerable attention to the creation of territorial defense forces, or, to put it simply, the militia. It is created largely on the basis of the experience of Ukrainian volunteer battalions and is being trained by American instructors. Now the number of such formations reaches 20 thousand people, by 2024 it is planned to increase it to more than 50 thousand.

Only 65 thousand people serve in the Belarusian army, of which 45 thousand wear shoulder straps. The armed forces are half the size. Therefore - no options? Let's not rush to conclusions: the Polish army is professional, that is, calling things by their proper names, mercenary. In Belarus, general military service remains. Consequently, in the event of the outbreak of war, Minsk will be able to call on from 350 to 500 thousand (according to various estimates) quite combat-ready reservists who have gone through an army school.

Believe me, you can find how to arm and equip them: Belarusian military warehouses for long-term storage, unlike Ukrainian ones, have not been plundered or sold out. By the way, the Belarusians also have territorial defense forces that are quite capable of continuing and creatively developing the glorious partisan traditions, and they number six times more in their ranks than the Polish: 120 thousand people (again, a large number of former "conscripts" is affected). So the quantitative comparison (if we take the wartime conditions) is still in favor of Minsk.

In terms of the size of military budgets, Poland is definitely in the lead. According to available data, this year they have to spend more than $ 13 billion on defense needs, which is 2,1% of the country's GDP. Belarus spends a little more than $ 620 million on the same items. But here, too, it is hardly worth rushing to categorical conclusions. With the 92nd military budget in the world (according to the Global Firepower rating) in terms of power and combat readiness, the country occupied 53rd place at the beginning of this year, ahead of some European armies, funded much more generously.

It's time to take a look at the armaments of both armies. By tanks Minsk is definitely ahead. According to the most conservative estimates, his army has more than 1300 of them in service, according to broader ones, taking into account the mothballed vehicles, - 1600. These are mainly various modifications of the T-72, including two dozen T-72B3, there are also about 70 T-80 ... The Polish army has a good tank fleet by NATO standards: it has 900-1000 vehicles. Basically, these are either T-72s of Soviet construction or PT-91 "Twardy" made in Poland itself. There are also two and a half hundred German "Leopards" of varying degrees of wear and tear, mainly in the 2A4 modification. In terms of the number of armored personnel carriers and infantry fighting vehicles, the Belarusians also outnumber the Poles by one and a half times (about 3 thousand units against 2 thousand).

In artillery, Belarus definitely wins. In terms of towed artillery, the local army is, according to the rating of the same Global Firepower, in 17th place in the world, and in terms of reactive artillery - in 15th. It is impossible not to mention the Belarusian-Chinese-made MLRS "Polonaise", which began to enter the troops a few years ago, with fairly good performance characteristics. However, the basis of the fleet of these weapons is still represented by Grads, Hurricanes and Smerchi, of which there are more than one hundred.

Aviation… Here, both sides have nothing to boast about yet. Warsaw's planned purchases of 32 F-35 Lightning IIs are a matter of the future. That is to say, a multipurpose crane in the sky ... Today, the Air Force there has fifty F-16s. The rest is the Soviet MiG-29 and Su-22M, either already completely decommissioned, or not yet. Belarus has rapidly pulled ahead in terms of fleet renewal, having received the first four 4+ Su-30SM generation aircraft this year. The delivery of the remaining eight such aircraft, presumably, will not be delayed (under current conditions). However, the same MiG-29s, which are in service with the Belarusian army, underwent a deep modernization, which significantly increased their combat capabilities.

However, the picture of approximate parity in the air for the Polish side is spoiled by the Belarusian air defense. There is even nothing to compare here, especially after the appearance of 16 divisions of the S-300 air defense system and at least five Tor-M2E batteries near Minsk. We add to this a dozen battalions of "Buk" and "Wasp" and, as some experts write, "an unknown number" of C-125s that are quite suitable for use, we multiply it by very effective and modern Belarusian radars and we get an air defense system, which, possibly, will be too tough for even the much stronger members of the North Atlantic Alliance than Poland.

All this is a rather crude and primitive comparison based on purely quantitative indicators. Wars, as you know, are won not by the number of tanks or guns, but by the fighting spirit and willingness to fight to the death of those who go on the attack or hold the defense. It is precisely by this parameter, as almost everyone unambiguously admits, that the Belarusian army is one hundred heads ahead of its potential opponents from the West. Patriotism and readiness to defend the Motherland to the last drop of blood make its warriors opponents who are unlikely to be defeated.
Author:
Photos used:
Wikipedia / Polish Ground Forces
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  1. Boris Afinogenov
    Boris Afinogenov 15 September 2020 18: 06 New
    65
    The main enemy of Belarus inside the country: its duped guys who are pushing the people to a civil war.

    And for all Poles and Balts-there is Russia.
    1. SRC P-15
      SRC P-15 15 September 2020 18: 23 New
      +9
      as some experts write, an "unspecified number" of C-125

      During the years of my service, the S-125 in Belarus was like mushrooms in the forest. But now, unfortunately, the number of divisions is much smaller. For example, in the place of my division near Kobrin, now there is a children's health camp. I think many other divisions have suffered the same fate.
      1. Finches
        Finches 15 September 2020 18: 31 New
        28
        The wrong author concluded that Belarus is strong for a hundred heads, this is when it is friendly to Russia, but if on the contrary, like in Georgia and Ukraine, then at least a million space troops with blasters and Jedi, just an ordinary used female pad thrown to the side of the road-anthem there is, there is a coat of arms, there is a parliament and a president, but there is no state or country! A gasket, it is also a gasket in Africa ...
        1. Finches
          Finches 15 September 2020 19: 01 New
          19
          Judging by my minuses, in 5 minutes, there are a lot of offended Ukrainians, Belarusians and Georgians on VO ... Earlier, Georgians, by the way, were open, with a flag that mowed Canadian and English at the same time, in the avatar, there were more, but apparently they moved to the sites of like-minded people, type "Peacemaker" laughing
          1. Terenin
            Terenin 15 September 2020 20: 09 New
            +8
            Quote: Finches
            Judging by my minuses in 5 minutes, there are a lot of offended Ukrainians, Belarusians and Georgians on VO ...
            As a rule, they always circle in the first five-minute jamb at low level. yes
          2. Tank hard
            Tank hard 15 September 2020 20: 32 New
            +8
            Quote: Finches
            Judging by my disadvantages in 5 minutes, there are a lot of offended Ukrainians, Belarusians and Georgians on VO.

            It happens that minus is not for this. By the way, how was Zakharova punished? laughing
            1. Finches
              Finches 15 September 2020 20: 43 New
              +1
              And then! Analysis for statistics would be interesting, of course! And so somewhere 60 to 40 it turned out - but this is normal, you most often think about it from yourself, without covering the entire complexity of the situation! The peasants stood up for Zakharova, as for a woman, and not as a high-ranking official - and this can only be welcomed, but the state damage ... so you won't see it right away, or you don't care about him at all, from your own position!
              1. Tank hard
                Tank hard 15 September 2020 20: 53 New
                +2
                Quote: Finches
                The peasants stood up for Zakharova as a woman, and not as a high-ranking official -

                Everyone invents worlds for himself. But you didn't intercede. wink
                1. Finches
                  Finches 15 September 2020 20: 55 New
                  +4
                  Not! I didn't. In this case, I took a negative attitude to her act - not as a woman personally, but as a misconduct of a high-ranking official who, willingly or unwittingly, caused damage to the state!
                  1. Tank hard
                    Tank hard 15 September 2020 20: 57 New
                    +1
                    Quote: Finches
                    but what about the misconduct of a high-ranking official, who, willingly or unwillingly, has inflicted damage on the state!

                    What is the damage? repeat
                    1. Finches
                      Finches 15 September 2020 21: 00 New
                      +1
                      Let's not flood under a topic that has nothing to do with this article - all I wanted to say, I have already expressed about this! hi
                      1. Tank hard
                        Tank hard 15 September 2020 21: 01 New
                        +1
                        Quote: Finches
                        Let's not flood under a topic that has nothing to do with this article - all I wanted to say, I have already expressed about this!

                        Let's. laughing
            2. Xnumx vis
              Xnumx vis 15 September 2020 20: 48 New
              0
              Quote: Tank Hard
              Quote: Finches
              Judging by my disadvantages in 5 minutes, there are a lot of offended Ukrainians, Belarusians and Georgians on VO.

              It happens that minus is not for this. By the way, how was Zakharova punished? laughing

              We wait . On the TV screen, with or without reason, it stopped appearing. Calmed down.
              1. Tank hard
                Tank hard 15 September 2020 20: 51 New
                -3
                Quote: 30 vis
                We wait

                Wait. wink
                1. Xnumx vis
                  Xnumx vis 15 September 2020 20: 53 New
                  -2
                  Let's wait. I never liked her ... Not the right character for such a job .. Too self-confident, buried, stupid.
                  1. Tank hard
                    Tank hard 15 September 2020 20: 55 New
                    -3
                    Quote: 30 vis
                    Let's wait

                    I catch the word. wink
                    1. Xnumx vis
                      Xnumx vis 15 September 2020 21: 13 New
                      -3
                      Quote: Tank Hard
                      I catch the word.

                      I am confident of resignation. Sooner or later they will be removed. At least in ten years, but they will be removed. Although I am sure much earlier. drinks
                      1. Sanichsan
                        Sanichsan 16 September 2020 20: 15 New
                        0
                        Quote: 30 vis
                        I am confident of resignation. Sooner or later they will be removed.

                        doctor, will I die?
                        sure!
                  2. Volga073
                    Volga073 16 September 2020 07: 13 New
                    -5
                    Eat more whiskas. With your mind, only eat cat food
                  3. businessv
                    businessv 16 September 2020 17: 21 New
                    +8
                    Quote: 30 vis
                    Too self-confident, buried, stupid.

                    Disagree, colleague! Watch her online press conferences. Smart, professional, patriotic, but emotional. Her post, in my opinion, was written on emotions, but this is her private account, although everyone had to take the rap! If you want to look at a stupid woman, search engine Jane Psaki. wink smile
                    1. Xnumx vis
                      Xnumx vis 16 September 2020 18: 05 New
                      0
                      Quote: businessv
                      If you want to look at a stupid woman, search engine Jane Psaki.

                      Well, it's generally a cork. About Maria Zakharova, perhaps here is my rejection of personality. Well, I don't like that. Pardon.
            3. Clear
              Clear 16 September 2020 10: 09 New
              +4
              Quote: Tank Hard
              By the way, how was Zakharova punished?

              hi
              No guys. Everyone agreed that the incident was over. People are people.
          3. Grits
            Grits 17 September 2020 01: 25 New
            +3
            Quote: Finches
            Earlier there were more Georgians, by the way, open, with a flag mowing at the same time as Canadian and English, in the avatar,

            Unfortunately, now the flags on the VO have been removed. I think in vain.
          4. Sailor
            Sailor 17 September 2020 14: 54 New
            +3
            Well, the Georgians are still fighters, but the Ukrainians and Belarusians are the same Russians as we are, so they will fight to the last, we are one people and the same mentality.
        2. japs
          japs 15 September 2020 19: 21 New
          11
          In one thing you are quite right, Eugene! People call carriers of white-red-white rags lining. The used padding of the three "leaders" of the position is their symbol.
        3. Stalllker
          Stalllker 16 September 2020 05: 51 New
          +4
          Maybe they were just offended by the comparison, but in fact you are right. Georgians are still there, but Ukraine, alas, I can’t name an independent state. For me, it would be better if Ukraine was led by their oligarchs than overseas aces
          1. businessv
            businessv 16 September 2020 17: 26 New
            +2
            Quote: Stalllker
            Georgians still here and there

            Where, colleague? Until this visit-du-ok Saakashvili was there, everything was normal. But then the rose revolution burst out and - oh-pa! Everything has changed! Stripes won and it inspired them! Now, if our people did not reach Tbilisi in 2008, but entered it and brought the successful president to criminal responsibility under the laws of wartime, then there would no longer be flower beds in the entire post-Soviet space! The local freaks would be afraid to sell their country.
            1. Stalllker
              Stalllker 17 September 2020 11: 12 New
              0
              If yes and if
      2. PSih2097
        PSih2097 18 September 2020 19: 46 New
        0
        Quote: SRC P-15
        During the years of my service, the S-125 in Belarus was like mushrooms in the forest. But now, unfortunately, the number of divisions is much smaller.

        but modernized, almost to the level of BokM1 ...
    2. Boris ⁣ Shaver
      Boris ⁣ Shaver 15 September 2020 19: 01 New
      -8
      Quote: Boris Afinogenov
      The main enemy of Belarus inside the country: its duped guys who are pushing the people to a civil war.

      There is one more. It can be considered the lesser of evils, but we must not forget.
      1. Finches
        Finches 15 September 2020 19: 03 New
        20
        Who is this? But father, who preserved the industry and agriculture of Belarus? Bad good, but preserved ...
        1. Boris ⁣ Shaver
          Boris ⁣ Shaver 15 September 2020 21: 35 New
          +8
          Quote: Finches
          But father, who kept the industry and agriculture of Belarus?

          Just look at the GDP figures in 1990 and today. For comparison, take a look at Russia and Ukraine. Where did you get this myth, I don’t know?
          I have already written here more than once: a person who hinders the unity of our people is his enemy. Lukashenko overwrites the Belarusian people who have wished independence for centuries (from the oppressor - the Russian people?), Panders to anti-Russian sentiments, increases nationalism (the first thing that catches your eye upon arrival in Minsk is the signs in tourist places, they are in English and Belarusian, while that 98% of tourists in Belarus speak Russian). This is the same Ukraine in terms of the authorities' attitude to Russia, only in a smoother version, and the result will be the same, only slowly. You like? Then I know who you are.
          1. businessv
            businessv 16 September 2020 17: 34 New
            +4
            Quote: Boris ⁣ Shaver
            You like? Then I know who you are.

            What's the way to get personal, colleague? You have your own point of view, another has his own, this is not a reason for "fu"! Moreover, each of you in your part of the post is absolutely right! What relation can economics have to foreign policy? Flies - separately, cutlets - separately! Only the lazy one did not write about two Lukashenka’s chairs, but he retained 80% of the state enterprises, unlike us, etc.
            1. Boris ⁣ Shaver
              Boris ⁣ Shaver 16 September 2020 23: 51 New
              -2
              Quote: businessv
              What a way to get personal

              The role of personality is great in any story. Even as small as discussing an article on the Internet.

              Quote: businessv
              he kept the state-owned enterprises by 80%, unlike us, etc.

              And on account of this - you repeat what you have never tested. I suggested above a way to double-check this.
              1. businessv
                businessv 17 September 2020 08: 49 New
                +1
                Quote: Boris ⁣ Shaver
                And on account of this - you repeat what you have never tested.
                I'm not going to check, I see the products of the enterprises of the Republic of Belarus, and my friends live there, we communicate. smile
                1. Boris ⁣ Shaver
                  Boris ⁣ Shaver 17 September 2020 10: 51 New
                  -3
                  Quote: businessv
                  I'm not going to check

                  The role of your personality in this story has been successfully identified. Thank you for using our service.
                  1. businessv
                    businessv 18 September 2020 20: 50 New
                    -1
                    Quote: Boris ⁣ Shaver
                    Thank you for using our service.
                    It's my pleasure! If anything, please, I will still use it! wink
                    1. Boris ⁣ Shaver
                      Boris ⁣ Shaver 19 September 2020 14: 36 New
                      -1
                      Quote: businessv
                      contact

                      What for? You have already been identified with reasonable accuracy.
          2. Uncle Vanya Susanin
            Uncle Vanya Susanin 16 September 2020 17: 56 New
            +4

            "I have already written here more than once: a person who hinders the unity of our people is his enemy."

            I support, think correctly hi
        2. karpusha
          karpusha 16 September 2020 13: 49 New
          0
          Preserved and now every year Russia is bursting for 2-4 billion dollars to contain all this. Since it all works only in a very big minus
          1. businessv
            businessv 16 September 2020 17: 42 New
            +1
            Quote: karpusha
            Preserved and now every year Russia is bursting for 2-4 billion dollars to contain all this.
            Wrong thesis! The Republic of Belarus has only 7 billion foreign debt! In the absence of raw materials! Yes, you have to cut and subsidize in some cases, but people at work, families are fed, apartments are paid! With the right approach, enterprises can be loaded 100% and everyone will be happy, just don't sit on two chairs.
            1. karpusha
              karpusha 16 September 2020 17: 49 New
              -5
              Ah ha ha. You couldn't even use Google and instead of the debt indicated the gold reserves. Try again. Also, check out the annual reports on export-import.
              Your problem is that you are trying to talk about what you know almost nothing about.
              1. businessv
                businessv 16 September 2020 17: 56 New
                +7
                Quote: karpusha
                Your problem is that you are trying to talk about what you know almost nothing about.
                You will poke your wife in the navel! And keep your grade 2 student grades with you!
                1. karpusha
                  karpusha 16 September 2020 18: 32 New
                  -4
                  How then to call a person who gives out his thoughts for the reasoning of an intelligent and versed person, but at the same time is not able to google basic information?
            2. businessv
              businessv 16 September 2020 18: 03 New
              +3
              Quote: businessv
              The Republic of Belarus has only 7 billion foreign debt!

              I wrote it from memory, sorry, 18 billion .. It does not change the essence, but misinformation.
              1. karpusha
                karpusha 16 September 2020 18: 36 New
                -3
                Already 19.5 billion. And there are very few normal enterprises in the country, and even there the salary is 1.5 times lower than in the Russian Federation. And so basically deeply unprofitable enterprises with a salary of $ 100-150. What worked 5 years ago and made a profit is already on the verge of ruin. It is for this reason that people massively opposed Lukashenka. Since everyone's salary falls, and no solutions to problems are made. The power has broken away from the people, everything is fine in power.
    3. Gato
      Gato 15 September 2020 19: 19 New
      +6
      The main enemy of Belarus inside the country

      Yes? I've always wondered: why are there TV channels like Nexta on the territory of Poland, which coordinate and incite unrest in Belarus, but on the territory of the Russian Federation there are no channels that incite the gopot in the United States? Don't want to help the Democrats or are you sorry for Trump?
      1. Sergey Sfiedu
        Sergey Sfiedu 16 September 2020 15: 37 New
        -1
        There is such a channel. RT. Former Rasha Today. In its current form, it is a useless and wasteful waste of money, a sinecure for the relatives of officials. Why is it useless - there are gopots of their own instigators Above the roof. I'll see what the Democrats will do with this gopota when they come to power.
        And the article is crap. the author counts guns and cannons, but forgot about people. And in Belarus, the attitude towards Poland is calm, the further west, the more pro-Polish. They will come out to greet with Polish flags.
    4. crambol
      crambol 15 September 2020 21: 42 New
      +3
      Boris Afinogenov, you presented the solution to the problem in a very simplified way. The Belarusian Armed Forces perform the role of the Ministry of Internal Affairs, and we are being exposed to the very sensitive fire of the Poles and NATO. No, fight, so together!
    5. Civil
      Civil 16 September 2020 06: 57 New
      -2
      According to available data, this year they have to spend more than $ 13 billion on defense needs, which is 2,1% of the country's GDP. Belarus spends a little more than $ 620 million on the same items.

      Or 2,72% of the GDP of Belarus. Will a rich country get involved in a war with a poor one? For what purpose?
      1. Horon
        Horon 16 September 2020 10: 05 New
        +5
        Will a rich country get involved in a war with a poor one?

        USA against Iraq, Israel against Syria, USA against Yugoslavia need more examples?
        For what purpose?

        Violation of human rights, for the establishment of democracy, the fight against a tyrant, etc. What difference does it make if this is required to solve the problems of his overlord associated with the subordination of the disobedient eastern territories.
      2. boris epstein
        boris epstein 16 September 2020 15: 41 New
        +3
        If you have oil (options - gas, mineral raw materials, proximity to the borders of the main enemy - Russia), we go to you.
    6. Selenium
      Selenium 16 September 2020 07: 27 New
      -8
      Of course, a salary of 1200 euros is much worse than 400, and only the army can protect them from this. Nobody will fight for Gutsiriev and Lukashenko. The economy is doomed.
      1. Horon
        Horon 16 September 2020 10: 08 New
        16
        How the ancestors fought against the invincible German army with low wages is a mystery!
        1. Sergey Sfiedu
          Sergey Sfiedu 16 September 2020 15: 40 New
          -5
          The ancestors had no choice. The Germans did not consider the Slavs to be people. And Belarusians will think a hundred times whether it is worth fighting for Bulbofuhrer.
          1. Uncle Vanya Susanin
            Uncle Vanya Susanin 16 September 2020 18: 00 New
            +4
            The choice was to go to the police, many did so.
            1. Sanichsan
              Sanichsan 16 September 2020 20: 23 New
              0
              Quote: Uncle Vanya Susanin
              many so they did.

              probably all the same some, not many ...
    7. Do not care
      Do not care 16 September 2020 07: 33 New
      -1
      ⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️
    8. sanya
      sanya 17 September 2020 08: 20 New
      -7
      The mustachioed cockroach is the main enemy of the people
  2. Lipchanin
    Lipchanin 15 September 2020 18: 07 New
    +6
    which are unlikely to be defeated.

    And don't even have to try
  3. Virus-free crown
    Virus-free crown 15 September 2020 18: 09 New
    +4
    Wars, as you know, are won not by the number of tanks or guns, and the fighting spirit and willingness to fight to the death of those who go on the attack or hold the defense. It is precisely by this parameter, as almost everyone unambiguously admits, that the Belarusian army is one hundred heads ahead of its potential opponents from the West.


    The Poles will definitely lose if there is a 1 versus 1 war soldier
    1. bk316
      bk316 15 September 2020 18: 15 New
      0
      [quote] The Poles will definitely lose if there is a 1 versus 1 war
      Two spherical horses in a vacuum?
    2. karpusha
      karpusha 16 September 2020 13: 52 New
      -7
      They made fun. 80% of the population is against Lukashenka. The past elections and the subsequent boil have proved this. So if Poland moves 5 divisions, 15 will reach Lukashenka's palace.
  4. Pessimist22
    Pessimist22 15 September 2020 18: 12 New
    +1
    Measured so to speak smile
  5. KVU-NSVD
    KVU-NSVD 15 September 2020 18: 12 New
    12
    Poles will not fight at one, Belarusians will not be left alone. And at the first stage, anyone will have enough strength. But in the present situation, how will it be in the future, depends on the Belarusians, will they remain silent or oppose? a normal old life or a maidan-like path to nowhere beyond the ceevrope.
  6. Asad
    Asad 15 September 2020 18: 19 New
    +5
    The Poles have a decent military budget, almost 20% of ours! And this is just one of a pack of hyenas around Russia.
    1. Boris ⁣ Shaver
      Boris ⁣ Shaver 15 September 2020 19: 07 New
      +3
      Quote: ASAD
      The Poles have a decent military budget, almost 20% of ours! And this is just one of a pack of hyenas around Russia.

      That's it. And we are all drawn to the "professional" army. A priori, we will not pull in money comparable to near and far hyenas. There is only one way out - it was found during the Soviet Union. But now blow after blow is being struck against that system. Who needs it?
      1. Alexey RA
        Alexey RA 16 September 2020 09: 55 New
        +1
        Quote: Boris ⁣ Shaver
        And we are all drawn to the "professional" army. A priori, we will not pull in money comparable to near and far hyenas. There is only one way out - it was found during the Soviet Union.

        A normal conscript army is also not cheap. Because for the normal training of "variable composition" it has a maximum of a year, then a year of service - and that's it, DMB.
        So we will spend the savings on payments to contract soldiers on more intensive training of conscripts.
        1. Boris ⁣ Shaver
          Boris ⁣ Shaver 16 September 2020 11: 41 New
          +1
          Quote: Alexey RA
          we will spend the savings on payments to contract soldiers on more intensive training of conscripts

          The most expensive part of preparation is exercise. It's not worth the price of contract soldiers who do not regularly participate in exercises. So this expense is in both cases.
          Otherwise, the content of a conscript is not comparable to that of a contract soldier.
          But even this is not the main thing. The main thing is the formation of a reserve. And these are conscripts, military departments, units and formations, staffed taking into account the call of reservists (the backbone of future troops). If the first in some form still remains with us, then the second and third have, in fact, gone down in history.
    2. Imperial Technocrat
      Imperial Technocrat 15 September 2020 21: 09 New
      0
      So it is necessary to consider the PPP. On the average for the economy, multiply ours by 3 (and this is even an underestimation of the IMF). And even more for military equipment - by 4-5. That is, our effective budget is 20 times more than the Polish one.
  7. Pavel57
    Pavel57 15 September 2020 18: 25 New
    0
    The Poles also have ships.
    1. aleks26
      aleks26 15 September 2020 18: 35 New
      12
      Quote: Pavel57
      The Poles also have ships.

      And the Belarusians don't even have a sea!
      1. AML
        AML 15 September 2020 19: 02 New
        +7
        Not yet. :)
      2. Alexey RA
        Alexey RA 16 September 2020 09: 56 New
        +7
        Quote: aleks26
        And the Belarusians don't even have a sea!

        Reminded:
      3. AVA77
        AVA77 16 September 2020 10: 59 New
        +1
        There is no sea, but there are shrimps lol
        1. Alexey RA
          Alexey RA 16 September 2020 14: 32 New
          +3
          Quote: AVA77
          There is no sea, but there are shrimps lol

          I'll tell you more - Belarus has a fishing fleet and catch quotas:
          Like the merchant fleet, the fishing fleet of our country is represented by only one vessel (according to the data provided by the Union of Fisheries of the North). Since February 2017, when the ship became the property of Soyuzryba JV LLC, it has been called PST MK-0551 Brest, and before that it was called Konotop. It was launched in 1980 and, having changed several owners, “moored” to the shores of the Murmansk enterprise.
          According to the Unified State Register of Legal Entities (USRLE), the average number of the joint venture is 62 people. And, according to financial statements, in 2018 its revenues amounted to 1,361 billion Russian rubles, and profits - 346 million. "Santa Bremor" - with shares in the authorized capital of 100 thousand rubles.
          It is this company that is engaged in fishing according to quotas allocated to Belarus by Rosrybolovstvo. And these quotas are growing: in 2019 they amounted to 4414 tons in the Barents Sea and 1000 tons in the Baltic. “For 2020, Belarus has been allocated production quotas in the exclusive economic zone of the Russian Federation in the following volumes: in the Barents Sea (cod and haddock) - 6,3 thousand tons, in the Baltic (cod, herring, sprat) - 1 thousand tons”, - Deputy Minister of Agriculture and Food of Belarus Igor BRYLO told "BR".
          © Where did the Belarusian fleet sail?
          1. sanya
            sanya 17 September 2020 08: 21 New
            0
            And all at the expense of Russia ...
    2. venik
      venik 15 September 2020 19: 33 New
      +7
      Quote: Pavel57
      The Poles also have ships.

      =======
      Yes, yes !!! There are ships!
      5 Polish submarines and 2 frigates (such as "Oliver H. Perry") pose a special "threat" to Belarus !!!
      And if they along the Neman, and make their way into the very heart of Belarus, and then hit from the rear? belay lol
  8. Connor MacLeod
    Connor MacLeod 15 September 2020 18: 26 New
    0
    Poles have Kalash and Panamas ...
  9. GREG68
    GREG68 15 September 2020 18: 27 New
    10
    Here they are pumping again, some kind of windbag. There will be neither when nor any war between Belarus and Poland. Will not be! For many reasons, and the most important - Russia is behind Belarus and the psheks know it. Then why are these comparisons? If only, if only, but mushrooms grew in my mouth ...
  10. rocket757
    rocket757 15 September 2020 18: 33 New
    +4
    There is no point in comparing ... both are supported by strong, vigorous powers! That's it, the analysis is over.
  11. Mishanya 74
    Mishanya 74 15 September 2020 18: 37 New
    -6
    Why should they conflict?
    So far, apart from Lukashenka's delirium, no one seemed to be going to arrange any conflicts
  12. parusnik
    parusnik 15 September 2020 18: 50 New
    +3
    I understand that dreaming is not harmful, but not to the same extent.
  13. ccsr
    ccsr 15 September 2020 19: 03 New
    +6
    Author:
    Alexander Kharaluzhny
    All this is a rather crude and primitive comparison based on purely quantitative indicators. Wars, as you know, are won not by the number of tanks or guns, but by the fighting spirit and willingness to fight to the death of those who go on the attack or hold the defense. It is precisely by this parameter, as almost everyone unambiguously admits, that the Belarusian army is one hundred heads ahead of its potential opponents from the West.

    I think that such a comparison is generally inappropriate, if only because Poland is a member of NATO, and Belarus is a union state with Russia. Therefore, such a war, in principle, cannot exist, since the Americans are well aware that they will get it first of all from the Russian armed forces, because they have to answer immediately, and there will simply not be time to figure it out. Therefore, the FAS command will never follow for all NATO members and Poland as well - only the Americans can decide to start a war, in which Russia will certainly be drawn.
    1. Tank hard
      Tank hard 15 September 2020 20: 28 New
      0
      Quote: ccsr
      I think that such a comparison is generally inappropriate, if only because Poland is a member of NATO, and Belarus is a union state with Russia. Therefore, such a war, in principle, cannot exist, since the Americans are well aware that they will get it first of all from the Russian armed forces, because they have to answer immediately, and there will simply not be time to figure it out. Therefore, the FAS command will never follow for all NATO members and Poland as well - only the Americans can decide to start a war, in which Russia will certainly be drawn.

      Comprehensive commentary.
    2. Sanichsan
      Sanichsan 16 September 2020 22: 38 New
      +1
      Quote: ccsr
      Therefore, the FAS command will never follow for all NATO members and Poland as well - only the Americans can decide to start a war, in which Russia will certainly be drawn.

      you are sure? remember 2008.08.08? there were no direct "faces", just the pug decided that it could bite, on its own, based on the idea of ​​its own greatness. we are not immune from similar Saakashvili in the future. yes
      1. ccsr
        ccsr 17 September 2020 12: 16 New
        +1
        Quote: SanichSan
        you are sure? remember 2008.08.08? there were no direct "faces",

        It was there that it was - the Americans gave Saakashvili the command "face", otherwise he himself would not have dared to do it without enlisting their support. Yes, and Georgia is not a member of NATO, and this is a key issue for understanding to what extent Poland can do something militarily against Belarus.
        Quote: SanichSan
        we are not immune from similar Saakashvili in the future.

        But only not from those countries that are members of NATO - there is a rigid hierarchy and everyone obeys the instructions of the Americans.
        1. Sanichsan
          Sanichsan 20 September 2020 01: 37 New
          0
          Quote: ccsr
          But only not from those countries that are members of NATO - there is a rigid hierarchy and everyone obeys the instructions of the Americans.

          Not certainly in that way. there is Turkey wink quite recently it almost came to a military clash between Greece (a NATO country) and Turkey (also a NATO member) ... well, France also got in there.
          1. ccsr
            ccsr 20 September 2020 09: 42 New
            -1
            Quote: SanichSan
            Turkey quite recently almost came to a military clash between Greece (a NATO country) and Turkey (also a NATO member).

            These are non-nuclear countries, and economically they are highly dependent on the United States and the leading countries of Europe, and therefore this is just a "sandbox game".
            Quote: SanichSan
            Well, France also got there.

            This confirms that they are being kept on a short leash.
  14. Gato
    Gato 15 September 2020 19: 04 New
    10
    The Poles have adopted the American version of the Douai doctrine: if there is no overwhelming air superiority, an offensive is impossible. Moreover, given the superiority of the Belarusians in artillery, armored vehicles and a priori a defensive strategy with active defense. Even if we leave out such abstractions as fighting spirit, motivation, etc., the Poles have no chance. Well, the main question is - why? To get the border with Russia and be even more afraid? laughing
    In general, this is a topic for alternative fiction.
    1. japs
      japs 15 September 2020 19: 49 New
      -1
      On the one hand, there is "Polish odmozha to mozha", but on the other hand, which is most likely, the next section of this is not completed. The psychic Chaputovich was inclined towards a "strong position" ...
      1. Gato
        Gato 15 September 2020 19: 57 New
        10
        On the one hand - "Polish odmoza to mozha"

        laughing Well, yes, but on the other hand, the obsessive dreams of zmagars about the ON - and also from sea to sea with Belarusian shrimps. And somehow other interested parties in the section cannot be seen. The Russian Federation is even embarrassed to recognize the LDNR, and with Germany, in general, "bid":
  15. 7,62h54
    7,62h54 15 September 2020 19: 04 New
    +1
    At the moment, social stratification is very large both in Russia and in Belarus. And in the place of the author, I would not be so confident in calculating human reserves. It is little joy for an ordinary person to go to war and lay down his head for the throne of a political long-liver, whether it is AHL or VVP. Therefore, if something happens, you will have to rely on the regular army, PMCs and others who receive a salary.
    1. iouris
      iouris 15 September 2020 19: 08 New
      -1
      Quote: 7,62x54
      At the moment, social stratification is very large both in Russia and in Belarus.

      And where is the "stratification" higher? Answer: in Africa.
    2. strannik1985
      strannik1985 15 September 2020 19: 27 New
      +2
      Apparently in Chechnya, two companies were fighting "difficult" people. In those days, military service for military service was 200-300 rubles a month, plus allowances for participation in hostilities.
  16. iouris
    iouris 15 September 2020 19: 07 New
    -1
    Poland is the EU and NATO, not "Poland".
    1. japs
      japs 15 September 2020 19: 54 New
      +1
      Do you remember the Turks? And where was this nata? NATO today is not a very large southern bazaar, each has its own interests and wishes.
  17. K-50
    K-50 15 September 2020 19: 23 New
    -1
    From the machine gun and throughout this crowd in the photo. The result is stunning. Both literally and figuratively. fellow lol
  18. Knell wardenheart
    Knell wardenheart 15 September 2020 19: 46 New
    -1
    I think this is a very rough comparison with the pulling by the ears of the Belarusian forces. It should be understood that the attacking side as a rule puts at the forefront the already functioning quality, and here is the big question - how many of the tanks available in Blr are ready to go today or tomorrow, out of these 1300, for how many of them there are crews, etc.
    Anything beyond that can be of highly controversial value in a modern, headlong war.
    And if we talk about partisanship and the conscript army, then not everything would be (in my opinion) so rosy. In 1941 it was clear with what goals the Wehrmacht was breaking through the Blr and what it was promoting - and they did not hide it. Now Poland, specifically, and the EU in particular, live much more satisfying than Blr and not a small number of its inhabitants are considered a kind of springboard for employment in the EU or migration to Germany. Accordingly, in the context of the current events, it is impossible to unequivocally assert that the Blr society is sufficiently united (both in relation to the authorities and in relation to the perception of Europe as a threat) - so that, if something happens, it is guaranteed that some kind of guerrilla war will break out.
    1. Imperial Technocrat
      Imperial Technocrat 15 September 2020 21: 13 New
      +5
      I think this is a very rough comparison with pulling the ears of the Polish forces. It should be understood that the defending side as a rule puts at the forefront the already functioning quality, and here is the big question - how many of the tanks available in Poland are ready to go today or tomorrow, of these 900-1000, for how many of them there are crews, etc.
      Anything beyond that can be of highly controversial value in a modern, headlong war.
  19. Mikhalych 70
    Mikhalych 70 15 September 2020 19: 49 New
    -3
    Not all reservists serve in the OMON. Some of them have already encountered these guys. Will they take the position of the Stalinist prisoners who decided to "expiate" at the front? Will there be a "bitch war" in a small republic, or is it a "fifth column" and its own SMERSH? In any case, the "pernicious influence of the West" cannot be ruled out.
  20. APASUS
    APASUS 15 September 2020 20: 02 New
    +4
    Batka's main trump card in the confrontation with the West is Putin's help. So there are not many options in a military conflict with the Poles. The West does not dare to take such an adventure, the possibility of getting strikes on Brussels and Washington by the Russian SNF is too great
  21. Tank hard
    Tank hard 15 September 2020 20: 26 New
    +2
    Why compare the incomparable? Who is interested in "nuclear winter in Europe"? repeat
  22. Imperial Technocrat
    Imperial Technocrat 15 September 2020 20: 53 New
    +1
    First, if Belarus is weaker, then not much. And secondly, is it meaningful to compare? If Poland commits aggression against Belarus, then Russia will tear Pshekostan into small pieces
    1. Sanichsan
      Sanichsan 16 September 2020 23: 05 New
      +1
      Quote: Imperial Technocrat
      If Poland commits aggression against Belarus, then Russia will tear Pshekostan into small pieces

      what was it called in 2008? peace enforcement? bully
      if someone thinks that all the EU will breastfeed for Poland, it is very doubtful. NATO's charter is so vague that it allows Poland to be supported in the form of concern about Russia's actions and prayer for the victory of the Poles ... ah! and of course a demonstration in Paris with signs "I am Poland" laughing
  23. Senka naughty
    Senka naughty 15 September 2020 20: 59 New
    +1
    Patriotism and readiness to defend the Motherland to the last drop of blood make its warriors opponents who are unlikely to be defeated.

    There is nothing dumber than a desire to die as soon as possible .. And the most dangerous and high-quality weapon of Belarus is an alliance with Russia.
  24. Ervin
    Ervin 15 September 2020 21: 07 New
    -4
    There is such a genre as "alternative history", "Fighting fiction", called - "Popadantsy". Striking examples:
    "" Penal battalion in space ""
    "A brigade commander from the future. Stop the Panzerwaffe!"
    "I saved the USSR! Volume IV"
    "SMERSH time." Cleaner "from the future"
    "Popadanets' Stalin. The leader of tankers from the future"
    "Tankman of Mordor"
    "Tank T 90 Lord of the Seas"

    Poland is a NATO member, a successful European country, as if by that - it says everything and it is unnecessary to invent anything.
    The article "The likelihood of a military conflict between Poland and Belarus: comparing the chances of the parties" should not be in the "Opinions" section, but in the "History" -> "Alternative history" section. However, this nonsense could not be written at all. It seems that the definition "alternative" best describes what is being written now about history, and about analytics and about politics. But what can I say, even reality has become "alternative" - ​​cotton instead of explosion, flood - flooding, fire - smoke, economic decline - negative growth, plane crash - hard landing.





    1. bistrov.
      bistrov. 15 September 2020 22: 36 New
      +3
      Quote: Ervin
      successful European country

      Come on, from 2004 to 2018 Poland received 147 billion euros in subsidies, is this its success?
      1. Izotron 3-150
        Izotron 3-150 16 September 2020 19: 26 New
        -1
        How many subsidies did Lukashenka receive from Russia during this period !?
        1. bistrov.
          bistrov. 17 September 2020 07: 01 New
          0
          Quote: Izotron 3-150
          How much Lukashenka received subsidies from Russia during this period

          Well, you say that in Belarus there is a "dictatorship", "ineffective" management, everything must be "changed" there, so why are you pointing at Belarus? It turns out that Poland is the same? Hehe ...
          1. Izotron 3-150
            Izotron 3-150 18 September 2020 07: 52 New
            0
            I'm talking about the standard of living ... After all these injections.
            1. bistrov.
              bistrov. Yesterday, 05: 16 New
              0
              Quote: Izotron 3-150
              I'm talking about the standard of living ... After all these injections.

              I do not think that the standard of living of an ordinary Belarusian is lower than that of an average Pole. After joining the European Union, 7 million Poles also left to seek a better life throughout Europe.
    2. Vladimir Demyanov
      Vladimir Demyanov 17 September 2020 14: 19 New
      0
      All this was done by our experts. Try to find "The Cauldron", two volumes. The American author considered the probable scenario of a war in Europe (Germany and France: attacking unfortunate England), loyal Poles with American support protect the poor thing, brave CIA agents turn off Russia ... And so on. Hooray, democracy is winning, as always. In the second volume, the war in Africa. You have to know how they think of us. But to be honest, it was difficult for me to read - everything inside was protesting.
  25. Magmax
    Magmax 15 September 2020 21: 19 New
    +3
    Belarus defend the homeland. That is a huge advantage.
  26. bistrov.
    bistrov. 15 September 2020 22: 30 New
    0
    And the Pole, who was on his knee, was killed in no way, hung his head and dropped the store, hehe ..., now he will fall and die ...
  27. Constanty
    Constanty 15 September 2020 22: 37 New
    +3
    I confess - I read the article! B But I'll tell you straight (even though I'm a Pole) The Polish army is not capable of anything. Belarus could easily beat her. Eh Although, who knows, it may be a pity that this does not happen
  28. Whisper
    Whisper 15 September 2020 23: 10 New
    +3
    The question is really simple. Whoever attacks whom will lose. Poland will attack, it will lose. That's all.
  29. Ovsigovets
    Ovsigovets 16 September 2020 00: 02 New
    +4
    Quote: 7,62x54
    At the moment, social stratification is very large both in Russia and in Belarus. And in the place of the author, I would not be so confident in calculating human reserves. It is little joy for an ordinary person to go to war and lay down his head for the throne of a political long-liver, whether it is AHL or VVP. Therefore, if something happens, you will have to rely on the regular army, PMCs and others who receive a salary.

    Well, for Dudu, then of course they will go))) entirely patriots, volunteers and wealthy Polish bourgeois))))
  30. akarfoxhound
    akarfoxhound 16 September 2020 08: 35 New
    +8
    The title of the article is the fantasy of the guys in the sandbox on the topic "and my folder will come and ...", "and mine will come on the tank and ..." And then in the comments the managers of the sand buckets: "You're all lying!" "You're lying!" "And your folder and not at all military" "And how I will give you a scoop hurt!" "And I..."

    And other "deep analytics"
    laughing laughing laughing
  31. Herman 4223
    Herman 4223 16 September 2020 10: 01 New
    0
    And where is the comparison of the number of battalions, brigades and divisions?
  32. Horon
    Horon 16 September 2020 10: 21 New
    0
    Patriotism and readiness to defend the Motherland to the last drop of blood make its warriors opponents who are unlikely to be defeated.

    The Polish military have combat experience in hot spots, but where does the Belarusian army gain experience? Combat experience cannot be replaced by patriotism, even without taking into account the ability of industry to work under martial law. And the problem with patriotism in Belarus, judging by the speeches. negative
  33. Skyscream
    Skyscream 16 September 2020 12: 30 New
    +1
    Nuuu, if the Poles will fight as in the title photo, I won't give a grudge for them!
  34. white.eagle
    white.eagle 16 September 2020 14: 03 New
    +1
    Emigration from Belarus to Poland is growing rapidly. Thus, Lukashenka will have to hire soldiers from Russia to think about a war against Poland. on the other hand, these Russian soldiers are ready, not to fight NATO, but to annex Belarus. This option is much safer for their lives.
    1. Siberian54
      Siberian54 16 September 2020 15: 29 New
      +1
      We're going to be late as always! They're going to study there, so they opened a line of payment for agents of influence and we, like this chernomyrdin, turned out as always, he crowed the outskirts, and someone just like that is now killing Belarus.
  35. Siberian54
    Siberian54 16 September 2020 15: 24 New
    0
    In addition to the title (provocation however) I did not read anything - how can a country simply attack and succeed against the NUCLEAR POWER - EVERYONE WILL DIE.
  36. Izotron 3-150
    Izotron 3-150 16 September 2020 19: 24 New
    +1
    And why should they fight then !!?
    1. Sanichsan
      Sanichsan 16 September 2020 23: 12 New
      +2
      Quote: Izotron 3-150
      And why should they fight then !!?

      for Tikhanovskaya of course! wassat the Poles have a president of the Republic of Belarus, but the Republic of Belarus itself does not request
      1. Izotron 3-150
        Izotron 3-150 18 September 2020 07: 49 New
        -1
        And let the Russians take Lukashenka for themselves. And the Belarusian people will thank you.
        And no one will fight with anyone.
        People are tired of Lukash, not of Tikhanovskaya ..
        1. Sanichsan
          Sanichsan 20 September 2020 01: 42 New
          0
          Quote: Izotron 3-150
          And let the Russians take Lukashenka for themselves.

          pick up, pick up. We'll take everyone. both Lukashenka and the Belarusian people ... yes
          Quote: Izotron 3-150
          People are tired of Lukash, not of Tikhanovskaya ..
          what people? this bastard under white-red-white flags? nope ... we won't take these. Let Tikhanovskaya take these with the Poles bully
          1. Izotron 3-150
            Izotron 3-150 20 September 2020 07: 55 New
            -1
            I doubt that the Belarusian people need you with their imperial ambitions and dictatorial manners ...
  37. silberwolf88
    silberwolf88 16 September 2020 21: 10 New
    +3
    Poland merged World War II and the partisans of Belarus, who resisted during the total cleansing of the areas by the Wehrmacht, despite everything, a very indicative cut ... the Poles are not competitors from the word absolutely ... they are self-seekers ... and the Belarusians will not just retreat in battle ...
  38. Naughty
    Naughty 16 September 2020 23: 00 New
    +2
    blah blah blah no more
  39. Sergey Sfiedu
    Sergey Sfiedu 17 September 2020 07: 43 New
    0
    By the way, I remembered - at the end of the war, conscripts from Western Belarus staged sit-ins, refused to serve in the SA, demanded a transfer to the Polish Army.
  40. Zaurbek
    Zaurbek 17 September 2020 11: 48 New
    0
    Without total domination, wars are not waged now, and Poland does not have that.
  41. Gunter prereen
    Gunter prereen 17 September 2020 14: 35 New
    0
    I am surprised at those who believe that such crises, the West will solve by military action. Why would they? Ask yourself a question. Onizhedeti + kicked-out feminists will do everything without the help of NATO soldiers. The method is proven and working. So the tanks will remain in the hangars and the soldiers in the barracks, but the war will be lost. And Russia is waiting for the same. All these Navalny, Sobol, Sopchak, Gozman, etc. are just parsley. Real enemies sit very high and wait in the wings.
  42. Sancho_SP
    Sancho_SP 17 September 2020 16: 22 New
    0
    Why should they fight then?

    Poles to organize a crusade for the revival of the Commonwealth? Well, so-so.

    Father to occupy Poland? Well, it's generally a cannon.
  43. Skyscream
    Skyscream 17 September 2020 16: 33 New
    0
    Quote: silberwolf88
    Poland merged World War II and the partisans of Belarus, who resisted during the total cleansing of the areas by the Wehrmacht, despite everything, a very indicative cut ... the Poles are not competitors from the word absolutely ... they are self-seekers ... and the Belarusians will not just retreat in battle ...

    Poles are good at fighting if motivated. The Andersovites are so-so, except that they showed themselves in Italy. There are not many in the RAF, they claim to Wittmann)) And the Polish Army even fought! AK is a separate topic.
  44. nikolai.shupenin
    nikolai.shupenin 18 September 2020 14: 08 New
    0
    the number of missiles of all types decides the outcome of modern warfare