The situation in Syrian Idlib has escalated to the limit. Today it can already be said openly that the Turkish army is fighting against the government forces together with the armed opposition. And ... is losing. Moreover, even the Russian military admit that it is the Turkish military who are trying to bring down our planes using Turkish-made air defense systems.
Yesterday, February 27, the opposition with the direct support of the Turkish army were able to recapture the city of Sarakib. Thus, having cut at once two major highways. Motorway M4 Latakia-Aleppo and M5 Damascus-Aleppo. At the same time, an attack by opponents of government forces began exactly where the Turkish observation posts were located.
How is the appearance of foreign instructors and the change in the position of the parties at the front
Any theater or film director will quite simply explain to you the ways to artificially increase tension in the viewer. These techniques are used constantly and constantly achieve the desired effect. Remember the disturbing music that sounds before some important episode. Remember the close-ups of the eyes, military epaulettes, caterpillars tanks etc.
When the media reports that foreign instructors have appeared on a side of the conflict, readers realize that some third party has decided to get involved in the conflict. Someone decided to use the conflict for their own purposes. This is also a “director’s technique” designed to create certain associations with the “viewer”.
At the same time, most readers do not even think about where these instructors come from and where they then disappear. They just are or not. And the second question. What do these instructors of fighters, who have been participating in the war not for days or months, but for years, teach. The instructor, who often did not take part in the hostilities himself, teaches the soldier to fight.
If the question about instructors is posed in this way, then the answer becomes obvious. The appearance of instructors in the army of either side is associated with the appearance of new equipment or weapons delivered from the country where the instructors arrived. Modern weapons, and especially high-tech weapons, require good user training. Weapon cannot shoot by itself. They need to be able to use.
Today, no one is hiding the fact that a huge number of instructors are in the ranks of the armed opposition in Syria. By the way, exactly the same situation in Libya. Here is what Dmitry Peskov said last week in an interview with Russia 1:
The terrorists in Idlib are perfectly armed, they are constantly fed with ammunition, ammunition, military equipment. ” Very dangerous samples of military equipment fall into their hands.
Do not confuse instructors and advisers
The appearance of instructors during the period of active hostilities almost always leads to the appearance of the following category of assistants to commanders of units, units, and even formations. These are military advisers. People who are actually in the units and help plan specific military operations.
There are a lot of reports in the media that there are a lot of such advisers in the ranks of the Syrian opposition in Idlib. True, unlike instructors, advisers disguise themselves as "local commanders." But this practice is known. Remember the many anecdotes of the Vietnam War about “Li Si Tzyn” or “Ku Ri Tsyn”.
Turkish advisers in Idlib today not only plan military operations, but also coordinate these operations with their own Turkish command. How does this happen? The answer was given by Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov literally on Monday:
Terrorists attacked our positions, the Syrian troops, Syrian civilian objects many times literally from the point where observation posts of the Republic of Turkey are deployed.
Playing on the nerves or wanting to start a big war
On March 5, a meeting of Russian and Turkish presidents on the Idlib problem should be held. Moreover, the leaders of Germany and France are also invited to the meeting. That is, Turkish President Erdogan is planning an active attack on President Putin with the support of EU and NATO leaders. The keynote of Erdogan’s speech at a possible meeting is already understandable. Turkey is a NATO member and attacking a member against an alliance member will mean a war with the bloc.
He is clearly waiting for this meeting. At the same time, Erdogan is well aware that the common ground between the position of Russia and the position of Turkey on Idlib is becoming less and less. Negotiations at the level of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and the Ministry of Defense, which were held on February 8 and 10, practically failed. No decisions were made, except for the duty officer, “there is reason to count on success”. Moreover, statements have already appeared that the meeting may not take place.
Both sides, both Turkey and Russia, today prefer to "pull death by their whiskers." This is especially noticeable in the Syrian sky. The Turks are trying to repeat what had once happened, to bring down a Russian plane. Fortunately, the militants will take responsibility for this. Russia successfully “drives” Turkish UAVs. Last week, one of the drones was shot down.
The game on the nerves, if the Turkish idea is successful, could end in a serious blow to the Turkish strongholds in Idlib. Changing the tactics of applying Russian aviation shows that we took into account the possibility of a surprise attack. However, no one will give a 100% guarantee of the safety of our pilots.
Finishing the material, I will return to the beginning. To instructors and advisers. Only not as specialists in warfare, but as harbingers of intensified military operations.
No matter what politicians, advisers and instructors say, already because they are located directly in units and units conducting military operations, they are direct participants in the war. They direct air defense systems at air targets. It is they who plan specific combat operations. And it is they that can cause a serious conflict, or maybe a big war, in Idlib.
The instructor’s specialty is not so important. Be it a scout, sapper, anti-aircraft gunner, mechanic or sniper. Another thing is important. The appearance of an instructor is always associated with an increase in the death toll on the opposite side. So, any instructor is a catalyst for conflict.
Maybe it is the increase in Turkish instructors and advisers in the ranks of the militants that is the reason that the already scheduled meeting in Istanbul on March 5 has not yet been confirmed by representatives of Russia, Germany and France. Who knows...