Idlib, Americans and appeasement. What did Putin, Rouhani and Erdogan discuss?
In Ankara, negotiations were held on a settlement in Syria. They were attended by the heads of the three states most interested in resolving the armed conflict in this country - Russian Presidents Vladimir Putin, Turkey Recep Erdogan and Iran Hassan Rouhani.
The Syrian civil war, which began in 2011, marked the culmination of a confrontation in the Middle East of several world and regional powers at once. On the one hand, we see the United States and NATO countries interested in the overthrow of Bashar al-Assad.
On the other hand, the oil monarchies of the Persian Gulf, supporting various radical fundamentalist groups. Turkey has its own interest, concerned about the intensification of the Kurdish movement on the Syrian-Turkish border. Iran and Russia support Damascus. Iran for reasons of religious solidarity, Russia - because Syria is one of the few remaining military-political allies of our country.
It so happened that Russia, Iran and Turkey have developed a special understanding on the Syrian issue. And this despite the fact that Turkey demonstrates a negative attitude towards Bashar al-Assad, and Turkish troops have repeatedly entered into combat contact with parts of the Syrian army, and pro-Turkish groups with Russian troops located in Syria.
Erdogan, Rouhani and Putin say that their countries are more than anyone else interested in maintaining the territorial integrity of Syria. The positions of Iran and Russia, however, are quite understandable, and Turkey had no other choice but to establish interaction with Moscow and Tehran.
Americans openly support and fund Syrian Kurdistan’s Self-Defense Forces. In fact, the Kurdish army was created with US money, armed and trained by the US military. For Erdogan, such actions by Washington became a real “blow in the stomach," since Ankara does not doubt the close interaction of Syrian Kurds with Turkish Kurds. AND weapon, and trained fighters - all this may be at the disposal of the Kurdistan Workers Party, which in Turkey is considered a terrorist organization and the worst enemy of Turkish statehood.
What is most solidarity between Russia and Iran - in the rejection of the presence of American troops on Syrian territory. Iran, which is now in the balance of the war with the United States, sees in the presence of American troops in Syria a direct threat to both the friendly regime of Assad and its own security.
For Russia, the presence of US troops is also undesirable, but Moscow focuses precisely on the illegality of the presence of US troops in Syria. The legitimate authorities of the country did not call Americans, and therefore US Army soldiers should not be present on Syrian territory.
Speaking at a meeting with Iranian and Turkish presidents, Vladimir Putin hoped that the words of his American counterpart Donald Trump about the withdrawal of US troops from Syria would be put into practice. After all, Trump has repeatedly stated that he is about to complete the withdrawal of American troops from Syria and Afghanistan.
For Turkish President Recep Erdogan, the presence of Americans in Syria is a much more complicated issue than for his Russian and Iranian colleagues. On the one hand, Turkey is a US military ally in the North Atlantic Alliance and has corresponding obligations to other NATO members, including the United States of America. The famous Incirlik base is located in Turkey, the US and Turkish military continue close cooperation even despite the conflict over the supply of C-400.
On the other hand, Americans are not just present in Syria. For example, they train and arm the Kurds, and Erdogan is unable to forgive. In addition, Erdogan understands that the presence of the Americans puts an end to Ankara’s attempts to "deal" with the Syrian Kurds by military means. How can you hit the Kurds if among them there may be American military advisers and instructors?
But Erdogan also cannot openly oppose the presence of Americans. Indeed, despite numerous statements criticizing Washington’s actions, Ankara is still not going to and will hardly do for a final break in relations with the USA. That is, the Turks, of course, are not averse to criticizing the “big brother”, but they are not ready to break with it.
In fact, the presidents of Russia, Iran and Turkey at a meeting in Ankara raised a very important issue - the withdrawal of American troops from Syria was announced almost a year ago, but to this day "things are there."
The first to withdraw troops from Syria was announced by US President Donald Trump, who has always been characterized by a desire to focus on resolving America’s internal economic and social problems. The new owner of the White House believed that America spends too much money on overseas military operations and this, ultimately, affects the country's economy.
In December 2018, the US command really began to withdraw US troops from Syria. By the way, this decision of Donald Trump put an end to the career of General James Mattis, who led the Pentagon from January 2017 to January 2019.
Former marine Mattis believed that the withdrawal of US troops would substitute their allies - the Kurds. A part of other American military leaders also identified with him. However, the withdrawal of troops began. Syrian provinces began to leave one after another American units.
However, already on 11 of January 2019, US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo told the press that an international coalition led by the United States would continue to strike from Syria from the air even after the withdrawal of American troops. In February 2019, Trump decided to leave several hundred US troops in Syria.
Thus, the withdrawal of American troops stalled. And today it is safe to say that in the near future Washington will not completely withdraw its military from Syrian territory. The presence of Americans in Syria is a desirable security guarantee for both the Syrian Kurds and neighboring Israel.
Do not forget about the current political situation in the Middle East. The US is increasingly talking about the need for a military operation against Iran, and in this context, the presence of American troops in Syria takes on new meaning. Therefore, the American leadership is unlikely to take into account the positions of the Russian, Iranian, and Turkish presidents, especially since it has been aware of them for so long.
However, in fairness it should be noted that the Russian leadership has repeatedly stated that the terrorists in Syria have been destroyed and Russian troops are being withdrawn from the country. But, as we well understand, so far our military in Syria remains and will remain for a long time to come.
In addition to the presence of American troops in Syria, the situation in Idlib was discussed at a meeting of three presidents. This governorate (province) in northern Syria still remains largely under the control of radical groups. The Syrian government army is fighting with them, but, as we see, it still does not succeed in defeating the terrorists. Turkish President Recep Erdogan stressed at the meeting that thousands of civilians were killed in Idlib, hundreds of thousands of people became refugees.
Idlib led to numerous destructions aviation blow inflicted by the air forces of the countries of the "international coalition" led by the United States. American aircraft attacked the area between the settlements of Maaret Misrin and Kafer Haya. The Pentagon explained that its goal was to destroy the command posts of the al-Qaeda group (banned in the Russian Federation) in Syria.
The Russian side reacted very negatively to the strike of American aviation, stressing that US actions jeopardized the ceasefire in Idlib, which began to operate just on 31 on August 2019 of the year - the day before American aviation began to strike at the province .
At a meeting in Ankara, Putin, Rouhani and Erdogan agreed on a joint fight against terrorist groups in Idlib. But at the same time, the press secretary of the Russian president Dmitry Peskov noted that we are not talking about a tripartite military operation in the province of Idlib.
The Russian leadership, apparently, is satisfied with the ongoing fight against terrorists waged by the Syrian government forces with the support of Russian aviation and military experts. And Moscow is not going to plan any large-scale operations involving Russian, Turkish and Iranian troops in Idlib.
Vladimir Putin, speaking at a meeting in Ankara, announced the need to convene a constitutional committee in Syria. Shortly before the meeting, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov announced that the war in Syria was over and the terrorists were defeated. If this is true, then it is time to establish a peaceful life.
True, Putin himself did not rule out that extremist forces would try to disrupt the convening of a constitutional committee. The Russian president emphasized that the radicals “earn money in the war”, therefore, it is not beneficial for them to end the hostilities in Syria. But the troika "Russia - Iran - Turkey", Putin noted, exists to prevent threats from extremists.
Of course, the pacification of Syria is a long-standing and desired goal, but do not forget that for almost a decade there has been a fierce civil war in the country. And to overcome its consequences is difficult not so much even in economic terms, but in social and political matters. One thing is clear - after the cessation of hostilities, Syria will no longer be the same, although it will remain under the leadership of Bashar al-Assad.
One of the most serious issues is Kurdish autonomy. Damascus cannot but decide to grant autonomy to the Kurds, but if Syrian Kurdistan gets a special status, they will be very unhappy in Ankara. Moreover, the Syrian Kurds have closer ties with Kurdish political organizations in Turkey itself than the Kurds of the same Iraq, where the territories inhabited by them have long been autonomous.
In any case, Damascus will have to reconsider the country's political system and change its national and religious policies. And here again, the Syrian leadership can not do without outside help, and the trio “Russia - Turkey - Iran” is just perfect for this task - Turkey will act as a guarantor for the Sunnis, Iran - the Alawites, and Russia will solve the tasks of the overall coordination of restoring peaceful life in the country.
Middle Eastern troika: why Russia, Turkey and Iran have special interests in Syria
The Syrian civil war, which began in 2011, marked the culmination of a confrontation in the Middle East of several world and regional powers at once. On the one hand, we see the United States and NATO countries interested in the overthrow of Bashar al-Assad.
On the other hand, the oil monarchies of the Persian Gulf, supporting various radical fundamentalist groups. Turkey has its own interest, concerned about the intensification of the Kurdish movement on the Syrian-Turkish border. Iran and Russia support Damascus. Iran for reasons of religious solidarity, Russia - because Syria is one of the few remaining military-political allies of our country.
It so happened that Russia, Iran and Turkey have developed a special understanding on the Syrian issue. And this despite the fact that Turkey demonstrates a negative attitude towards Bashar al-Assad, and Turkish troops have repeatedly entered into combat contact with parts of the Syrian army, and pro-Turkish groups with Russian troops located in Syria.
Erdogan, Rouhani and Putin say that their countries are more than anyone else interested in maintaining the territorial integrity of Syria. The positions of Iran and Russia, however, are quite understandable, and Turkey had no other choice but to establish interaction with Moscow and Tehran.
Americans openly support and fund Syrian Kurdistan’s Self-Defense Forces. In fact, the Kurdish army was created with US money, armed and trained by the US military. For Erdogan, such actions by Washington became a real “blow in the stomach," since Ankara does not doubt the close interaction of Syrian Kurds with Turkish Kurds. AND weapon, and trained fighters - all this may be at the disposal of the Kurdistan Workers Party, which in Turkey is considered a terrorist organization and the worst enemy of Turkish statehood.
Against the American Presence
What is most solidarity between Russia and Iran - in the rejection of the presence of American troops on Syrian territory. Iran, which is now in the balance of the war with the United States, sees in the presence of American troops in Syria a direct threat to both the friendly regime of Assad and its own security.
For Russia, the presence of US troops is also undesirable, but Moscow focuses precisely on the illegality of the presence of US troops in Syria. The legitimate authorities of the country did not call Americans, and therefore US Army soldiers should not be present on Syrian territory.
Speaking at a meeting with Iranian and Turkish presidents, Vladimir Putin hoped that the words of his American counterpart Donald Trump about the withdrawal of US troops from Syria would be put into practice. After all, Trump has repeatedly stated that he is about to complete the withdrawal of American troops from Syria and Afghanistan.
For Turkish President Recep Erdogan, the presence of Americans in Syria is a much more complicated issue than for his Russian and Iranian colleagues. On the one hand, Turkey is a US military ally in the North Atlantic Alliance and has corresponding obligations to other NATO members, including the United States of America. The famous Incirlik base is located in Turkey, the US and Turkish military continue close cooperation even despite the conflict over the supply of C-400.
On the other hand, Americans are not just present in Syria. For example, they train and arm the Kurds, and Erdogan is unable to forgive. In addition, Erdogan understands that the presence of the Americans puts an end to Ankara’s attempts to "deal" with the Syrian Kurds by military means. How can you hit the Kurds if among them there may be American military advisers and instructors?
But Erdogan also cannot openly oppose the presence of Americans. Indeed, despite numerous statements criticizing Washington’s actions, Ankara is still not going to and will hardly do for a final break in relations with the USA. That is, the Turks, of course, are not averse to criticizing the “big brother”, but they are not ready to break with it.
Will the US withdraw troops from Syria?
In fact, the presidents of Russia, Iran and Turkey at a meeting in Ankara raised a very important issue - the withdrawal of American troops from Syria was announced almost a year ago, but to this day "things are there."
The first to withdraw troops from Syria was announced by US President Donald Trump, who has always been characterized by a desire to focus on resolving America’s internal economic and social problems. The new owner of the White House believed that America spends too much money on overseas military operations and this, ultimately, affects the country's economy.
In December 2018, the US command really began to withdraw US troops from Syria. By the way, this decision of Donald Trump put an end to the career of General James Mattis, who led the Pentagon from January 2017 to January 2019.
Former marine Mattis believed that the withdrawal of US troops would substitute their allies - the Kurds. A part of other American military leaders also identified with him. However, the withdrawal of troops began. Syrian provinces began to leave one after another American units.
However, already on 11 of January 2019, US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo told the press that an international coalition led by the United States would continue to strike from Syria from the air even after the withdrawal of American troops. In February 2019, Trump decided to leave several hundred US troops in Syria.
Thus, the withdrawal of American troops stalled. And today it is safe to say that in the near future Washington will not completely withdraw its military from Syrian territory. The presence of Americans in Syria is a desirable security guarantee for both the Syrian Kurds and neighboring Israel.
Do not forget about the current political situation in the Middle East. The US is increasingly talking about the need for a military operation against Iran, and in this context, the presence of American troops in Syria takes on new meaning. Therefore, the American leadership is unlikely to take into account the positions of the Russian, Iranian, and Turkish presidents, especially since it has been aware of them for so long.
However, in fairness it should be noted that the Russian leadership has repeatedly stated that the terrorists in Syria have been destroyed and Russian troops are being withdrawn from the country. But, as we well understand, so far our military in Syria remains and will remain for a long time to come.
Idlib - the knot of contradictions
In addition to the presence of American troops in Syria, the situation in Idlib was discussed at a meeting of three presidents. This governorate (province) in northern Syria still remains largely under the control of radical groups. The Syrian government army is fighting with them, but, as we see, it still does not succeed in defeating the terrorists. Turkish President Recep Erdogan stressed at the meeting that thousands of civilians were killed in Idlib, hundreds of thousands of people became refugees.
Idlib led to numerous destructions aviation blow inflicted by the air forces of the countries of the "international coalition" led by the United States. American aircraft attacked the area between the settlements of Maaret Misrin and Kafer Haya. The Pentagon explained that its goal was to destroy the command posts of the al-Qaeda group (banned in the Russian Federation) in Syria.
The Russian side reacted very negatively to the strike of American aviation, stressing that US actions jeopardized the ceasefire in Idlib, which began to operate just on 31 on August 2019 of the year - the day before American aviation began to strike at the province .
At a meeting in Ankara, Putin, Rouhani and Erdogan agreed on a joint fight against terrorist groups in Idlib. But at the same time, the press secretary of the Russian president Dmitry Peskov noted that we are not talking about a tripartite military operation in the province of Idlib.
The Russian leadership, apparently, is satisfied with the ongoing fight against terrorists waged by the Syrian government forces with the support of Russian aviation and military experts. And Moscow is not going to plan any large-scale operations involving Russian, Turkish and Iranian troops in Idlib.
Restoring Peace in Syria
Vladimir Putin, speaking at a meeting in Ankara, announced the need to convene a constitutional committee in Syria. Shortly before the meeting, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov announced that the war in Syria was over and the terrorists were defeated. If this is true, then it is time to establish a peaceful life.
True, Putin himself did not rule out that extremist forces would try to disrupt the convening of a constitutional committee. The Russian president emphasized that the radicals “earn money in the war”, therefore, it is not beneficial for them to end the hostilities in Syria. But the troika "Russia - Iran - Turkey", Putin noted, exists to prevent threats from extremists.
Of course, the pacification of Syria is a long-standing and desired goal, but do not forget that for almost a decade there has been a fierce civil war in the country. And to overcome its consequences is difficult not so much even in economic terms, but in social and political matters. One thing is clear - after the cessation of hostilities, Syria will no longer be the same, although it will remain under the leadership of Bashar al-Assad.
One of the most serious issues is Kurdish autonomy. Damascus cannot but decide to grant autonomy to the Kurds, but if Syrian Kurdistan gets a special status, they will be very unhappy in Ankara. Moreover, the Syrian Kurds have closer ties with Kurdish political organizations in Turkey itself than the Kurds of the same Iraq, where the territories inhabited by them have long been autonomous.
In any case, Damascus will have to reconsider the country's political system and change its national and religious policies. And here again, the Syrian leadership can not do without outside help, and the trio “Russia - Turkey - Iran” is just perfect for this task - Turkey will act as a guarantor for the Sunnis, Iran - the Alawites, and Russia will solve the tasks of the overall coordination of restoring peaceful life in the country.
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