Asian front
While the front in the Middle East is actually open and there is an intensified watering of its main centers with kerosene, the West is quietly and without much ado preparing a new theater of military operations. The Asia-Pacific region will become another of the fronts of global war. Practically in all countries of this region there is an arms race. And this is the time of the global economic crisis. It is clear that the elites of these countries understand the inevitability of significant clashes and are preparing for war for their future and natural resources. The process of the arms race among the richest countries in the region — China, Japan, India, South Korea and Australia — is particularly clearly seen. Although other states are trying to modernize their armed forces, focusing on the development of the Navy and Air Force. This is due to the specifics of the theater of future military operations.
It should be noted that the owners of the West, apparently, are ready for the limited use of nuclear weapons in the region from Pakistan to China. The West has closed its eyes to the emergence of nuclear weapons in India and Pakistan. When Moscow changed its mind to help China create nuclear weapons, Beijing was "favored" by the West. It is no secret that the French nuclear scientists have made a significant contribution to the development of China’s nuclear technologies. And it cannot be said that the United States could not put pressure on Asian countries or stop the channels for obtaining information. So, the Indian atomic program relied on the help of Israel and South Africa. For example, Washington ultimately forced Brazil to curtail its atomic programs to Brazil, Argentina and Chile, which almost went through the entire preliminary cycle and were on the verge of creating nuclear weapons. The United States does not need a nuclear conflict in its underbelly - it is well known that there are a significant number of unsolved problems in relations between Latin American states, which is why armed clashes happen every now and then. As a result, it turns out that the USA (and the masters of the West) allowed the existence of atomic weapons in the Far East and Southeast Asia, but made every effort to ensure that they did not exist in Latin America, in the Middle East, and in most European countries. Nuclear weapons were allowed to have and helped create only countries that are part of an elite group - Britain, France and Israel.
The limited use of nuclear weapons, fierce wars in Southeast Asia and the APR will solve several important tasks for the West at once. An alternative center of world development will be destroyed (China and Russia have the potential to implement a different concept of human development). There will be a massive destruction of infrastructure, China will cease to be a “world workshop”. Thus, the West will be able to build a New World Order from scratch. The collapse of the infrastructure, the death of people (primarily residents of megacities) from nuclear and rocket attacks, will lead to the fact that in the most populous states people will be thrown into the chaos of war, doomed to mass migration, hunger and epidemics. The masters of the West will solve another major task - a sharp reduction in the human population. The Islamic world, and so plunging into chaos, will receive the strongest blow, all its attention, resources will be absorbed to minimize the consequences of this catastrophe. The same fate awaits Russia, even if it can stay away from the anti-Chinese war. Chaos in Eurasia will lead to the final collapse of the “welfare society” in Europe and the USA. It will allow the masters of the West to move to the “new” socio-political formation, the neo-slave system on the basis of modern science and technology, as soon as possible.
Main fault lines
- China vs India. The two largest powers (and civilizations) of this huge region have long been geopolitical rivals. It should be recalled that in the 19 century, Great Britain (and therefore British India) acted as the sworn enemy of Chinese civilization: the very opium for which the Western powers unleashed "opium wars" against the Qing Empire, it was grown in India. At the same time, the United States sought to establish itself on the territory of China, displacing the European powers (primarily the British), including through the training of antimonarchist cadres. Thus, the American Protestant mission in Shanghai trained personnel for the future of the KMT, that is, in fact, laid the foundations of the Chinese "democracy". The British also laid the basis for the Sino-Indian border issue. At the British-Tibeto-Chinese conference in Simla in 1913 — 1914, in accordance with the proposals of Great Britain, the eastern part of the border between India and Tibet was established along the so-called “McMahon line”. As a result, a border-territorial and Tibetan problem arose in the Indo-Chinese relations. In December, 1964, the Chinese Prime Minister Zhou Enlai, made a statement in which he warned Delhi that Beijing had never renounced its sovereignty over 90 thousand square meters. km of territory located south of the line Makmagona. The PRC holds to this position until now.
It should be noted that the modern confrontation between China and India is not only a legacy of the 19 and 20 centuries, where it was initiated by two Anglo-Saxon powers. This standoff has more than a thousand years history and is connected with the cilizational foundations of the two powers: the Confucian monarchy prevented the spread of Indian Buddhism in the country. Indian civilization acted as a source of spiritual and ideological hostility.
The allies of China are the two nuclear powers, with powerful armed forces - North Korea and Pakistan. However, these two countries are weak economically and have a lot of problems. North Korea is actually a rogue state, its military potential is being blocked with the help of South Korea and Japan with the support of the United States. Pakistan is one of the “powder magazine” of the planet. This is an artificial state, a product of the British policy of dismembering Indian civilization. The country has huge problems in the field of water supply, food, demography, economy. The conflict with India and the internal political situation may lead to a split of the country into several parts in the near future. The potential of Pakistan is being blocked by India, which, with the support of the West, Israel and Russia, has much more powerful military and scientific capabilities.
In addition, China has strong positions in Bangladesh and Myanmar. In the last decade, Dhaka has developed the warmest relations with Beijing. Cooperation between the two countries is being strengthened not only in the economic sphere, but also in the field of modernization of the Bangladeshi armed forces with the help of the Chinese. It should be noted that Bangladesh and India have rather tense relations. The Chinese supply the country with a large number of various military equipment from small arms to naval ships. Relations with Myanmar are developing similarly. China is the main trading partner of the state (commodity circulation between the countries is about 5,2-5,3 billion US dollars per year) and the main investor in the economy of Myanmar (the total accumulated Chinese investment is about 16 billion dollars). The Chinese are engaged in the implementation of key infrastructure projects in the state, the development of its economy, for example, the energy sector. China also helps the country strengthen its armed forces. In particular, Chinese appeared in Myanmar Tanks MBT-2000. And Bangladesh in 2011 acquired 44 MBT-2000 tanks.
True, Myanmar and Bangladesh are weak allies. China needs them so that the camp of the enemies will not become even stronger. In addition, Bangladesh is one of the points of impact on India. And Myanmar needs to have order on the border with this country, plus, as a source of resources and a sales market for Chinese goods. Some kind of satellite countries that have no independent strategic importance.
- Union of countries against China. The United States continues the ancient strategy based on the principle of "divide and rule" and prefer to restrain China by the forces of other countries. Currently, the process of creating the anti-Chinese coalition has intensified. The United States is restoring its military ties with Australia and New Zealand (the ANZUS bloc), and are actively working to put together an anti-Chinese alliance. China has quite powerful contradictions with a number of neighboring countries. There are very serious opponents in the camp of the Celestial Empire - Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, Vietnam, India, Australia. In fact, such states as Japan, South Korea, Taiwan and the Philippines are for the United States the first line of defense against China. In this group now, despite the dark spot in the history of US-Vietnamese relations - the US-Vietnamese war, Vietnam is being drawn in too. Apparently, this group will also include Malaysia and Indonesia, having the same problem with the Chinese diaspora at home. In addition, Malaysia is one party to the conflict over the Spratly Islands in the south-western part of the South China Sea. In fact, the entire eastern part of Greater Eurasia and Oceania oppose the Middle Kingdom. For them, the PRC is an economic rival, a historical adversary, a state that has territorial claims to almost all its neighbors, and a giant that is constantly building up its military power. Moreover, in the minds of the peoples surrounding China, the efforts of the West created and implanted in the mass consciousness the myth of the "Chinese threat".
Here are a few Newscomplementing the picture of the emerging anti-Chinese union. On January 5, 2012, a new US military strategy was announced, informing that Washington intends to concentrate its forces and resources in the Asia-Pacific region. In the fall of 2011, the United States and Australia signed an agreement to expand the American military presence on the Green Continent. It was decided to deploy up to 2,5 thousand US Marines at an Australian military base near the city of Darwin. The agreement also provides for an increase in the number of American aircraft to be deployed at bases in northern Australia. In the spring of 2012, the first group of 200 US Marines arrived at the Australian port of Darwin. In addition, as part of strengthening military ties between states, Washington can also deploy its aircraft carriers and nuclear submarines in the city of Perth in western Australia. A decision was made to increase the number of joint military exercises.
3 June 2012, the Xinhua news agency, citing the Singapore Ministry of Defense, reported that Singapore had agreed in principle to the United States to deploy American coastal warships to its 4's waters. This decision on the basing of US warships was made on the basis of those signed by Singapore and the United States, respectively, in 1990 and 2005. memorandum of cooperation and strategic framework agreement. Singapore occupies a strategic position in the Strait of Malacca, through which important sea routes from Africa and the Middle East to East Asia pass. In addition, the state is located on the southern tip of the South China Sea and is an area of territorial disputes between China, Vietnam, the Philippines, Taiwan, Malaysia, Brunei (the problem of the Spratly and Paracel Islands). Therefore, the deployment of US Navy ships in Singapore is a direct threat to China.
Another country that strengthened contacts with the United States became the Philippines. The country is ready to strengthen the American military presence. Manila reacts very violently to the attempts of the Chinese to establish themselves in the disputed territories of the Spratly Archipelago. So, back in 2008, the Philippines announced that they would "fight to the last sailor and marine" for the Spratly Islands. The Philippines is ready to receive US Navy ships and reconnaissance aircraft. Scenarios for the deployment of additional US troops in the state are also considered. Currently in the Philippines around 600 are deployed by the US military. Since 2002, they have been serving as military advisers on the island of Mindanao and have helped the Filipino sun fight Islamists in the south of the country. In addition, it is planned to conduct joint military exercises more often. In May, it was reported that Washington plans to increase threefold the military assistance to Manila in order to strengthen ties between the two countries and in connection with the aggravation of relations with China because of the disputed islands. According to the US Embassy, Manila has received nearly 2002 million dollars in military aid from the United States since 500. Moreover, this amount does not include the transfer of 20 reconstructed helicopters and patrol ships of the Cyclone and Hamilton class.
At the end of May 2012, the first bilateral exercises of the Australian Navy and the Republic of Korea took place. The main objectives of the exercise are to improve interaction during naval operations to coordinate communications systems and organize anti-submarine warfare. After training with the Koreans, the frigate URO Australian Navy Ballarat arrived in Japan to participate in a joint training with the Japanese Navy. In June, India and Japan conducted joint naval exercises for the first time. Military maneuvers took place in Sagami Bay in Kanagawa Prefecture. The Indian Navy was represented by four ships - a destroyer, a frigate, a corvette and a support ship. Japan brought two destroyers to the bay with the support of the sea aviation. In 2012, another Indian-Japanese exercise is planned, already with the call of Japanese ships at the ports of India. In addition, India and Japan are developing a defense engagement plan and are discussing trilateral military cooperation with the United States.
June 21-22 off the southern coast of the Korean Peninsula will be held the first in the history of the trilateral naval exercises of the United States with South Korea and Japan. The US Navy in the doctrine should submit the aircraft carrier "George Washington", which is in the Japanese port of Yokosuka. It is not yet known what ships will take part in the teaching from Japan and South Korea.
It is impossible not to notice the partnership of India, Vietnam and the United States. In recent years, India and Vietnam have been establishing close ties with each other precisely on anti-Chinese soil. 4 June 2012 held a meeting between two US and Vietnamese defense ministers as part of the official two-day visit by US Secretary of Defense L. Panetta to this Asian country. The Vietnamese side asked Washington to lift the embargo on the importation of American weapons from Hanoi. According to the head of the Vietnamese military department, Fung Quang Thanh, lifting this ban will help Hanoi modernize the country's armed forces and have a positive effect on relations between the two states. Vietnam expressed its readiness to purchase weapons from the States, as well as to attract American partners for the repair and modernization of outdated military equipment.
Another powerful player in the anti-Chinese coalition could be the Russian Federation (with Kazakhstan). The West and its agents in Russia are actively pursuing this. The “Chinese threat” is one of the most powerful myths that has been actively introduced and is being introduced in Russia. Although it is clear that China threatens Russia only if it collapses due to internal problems. In this scenario, China will be forced to occupy a number of Far Eastern and Siberian territories, or create dependent buffer states there. China does not threaten strong Russia. A major step towards the deterioration of relations between Moscow and Beijing was the support from the Russian Federation of the NATO group in Afghanistan. Military transit through Russian territory is not only participation in the war of the West on the territory of Afghanistan and connivance in its drug business. This is a potentially unfriendly action against the Middle Kingdom. The presence of NATO forces in Afghanistan is a threat to all neighboring powers. Moscow’s attempts to “make friends” with the United States and NATO, such as statements about plans to build a joint missile defense system, the regular fate of the Russian armed forces in Western military exercises, etc.
- The main zones of local, regional conflicts that can lead to a large (global) war
1) Conflict of Japan and Russia over the Kuril Islands. Tokyo’s statements about the Northern Territories were clearly aggressive in 2011. Only the natural disaster of March 2011 of the year somewhat cooled the ardor of Japan. However, it cannot be said that the problem has been solved. The Japanese clearly headed for building up naval and air power. Their potential enemies are Russia, the DPRK and China. It is not excluded that the claims of Japan can be held by the United States with the whole “world community”. It should also be noted that Japan has a territorial dispute and with China is the problem of the Senkaku Islands (the Chinese name is Diaoyu) in the East China Sea. The islands are currently owned by Japan, and earlier they belonged to China, but after the occupation of Japan by the island of Taiwan in 1895, they were incorporated into the Japanese Empire. Beijing in 1992 declared these islands to be "originally Chinese." Interest in the islands grew especially when significant reserves of natural gas were discovered here at 1999.
2) Conflict between North and South Korea. Armed clashes on the borders of the two countries have become commonplace. One cannot deny the fact that one of these clashes could be the beginning of a major war between the two parts of the Korean people. In this case, the participation of the United States, Japan (allies of Seoul) and China (an ally of Pyongyang) becomes inevitable. Yes, and the Russian Far East will be affected.
3) Conflict between China and Taiwan. The Chinese government claims sovereignty over the island of Taiwan. After the victory in the civil war of the Chinese Communists, the Kuomintang government of the Republic of China led by Chiang Kai-shek retreated to the island. With the support of the United States of America, the Kuomintang people remained on the island. Beijing views Taiwan and the adjacent islands as part of a united and indivisible Chinese state. In turn, the leadership of the Republic of China (Taiwan) also claimed sovereignty over the entire territory of China (calling itself the legitimate government). The dramatic build-up of military and naval power of the PRC is seriously concerned about the Taiwanese leadership. The balance of power in the Taiwan Strait has shifted in favor of China. Taipei places special hopes on military-technical cooperation with Washington, especially with regard to the modernization of the Air Force and Naval Forces, missile weapons. In addition, Taiwan is a party to a territorial dispute over the Spratly archipelago and the Paracel Islands.
4) The problem of the Spratly and Paracel Islands. The Spratlys Archipelago is a group of islands in the southwestern part of the South China Sea. Their area is very small, but they occupy a strategically important position in the region. In addition, we are talking about bioresources, the shelf - the researchers report the presence of a significant amount of oil and natural gas. You can not reject the factor of national pride - to give territory to another state without good reason, this is a shame for the government. The territory of the archipelago is challenged by six countries at once: China, Vietnam, Taiwan, Malaysia, the Philippines and Brunei. The most fierce conflict is noted between China and Vietnam, China and the Philippines. A similar conflict is connected with the Paracel Islands. In 1974, they were captured by the Chinese, but Taiwan and Vietnam also claim to be them.
5) Cambodian-Thai border conflict. Cambodia and Thailand have a century-old territorial dispute over the area near the Preah Vihear temple complex (Preah Vihear). In 2008, 2009 and 2011 the dispute turned into armed conflict.
6) Sino-Indian border issue. China and India have two disputed areas: Aksai-Chin in the northeastern part of Kashmir and the northern part of the modern state of Arunachal Pradesh. In addition, the relations of the two powers are aggravated by the problems of Tibet and the Indo-Pakistan relations.
7) Indo-Pakistani conflict. This conflict continues to this day since the partition of British India in 1947. The main cause of the conflict between Delhi and Islamabad is a dispute over the affiliation of the Kashmir region. As a result of the war 1947 — 1949. India gained control of roughly 2 / 3 territory of Kashmir, the rest was transferred to Pakistan. This problem caused three wars: 1947 — 1949, 1965, and 1971. In addition, an insignificant border conflict on the Siachen Glacier went with 1984, and in 1999, the Kargil war was provoked by Islamabad. Currently, Delhi openly admit that they are preparing for war on two fronts - against Pakistan and China.
8) China's northern expansion scenario. Beijing has explicit or hidden claims on almost all countries on its northern and northwestern borders - Russia, Mongolia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan. If a plan of unrest is implemented in Central Asia and Russia, Beijing will take advantage of this. Naturally, here the interests of China will clash with the interests of Japan, the United States and the European Union.
To be continued ...
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