Military Review

Stripping the "idlibian viper." The fleet is on guard, but is that enough?

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The world is again on the verge of conflict, which, under certain circumstances, can serve as a fuse for world war. And the scene is the same as six months ago, when the Americans and their allies (Great Britain and France) launched a missile attack on Syria. Only this time is still more serious ...


Units of the Syrian army, according to rumors, are already fully prepared for a military operation in the province of Idlib, still controlled by the militants and partially by Turkey. And even though there are many militants there, the experience of the recent successful operations of the Syrian army in the south and in the center of the country shows that they have little chance of resisting the stronger and more motivated government army supported by the Russian Aerospace Forces and Iranian "volunteer" formations they can't.



At the same time, Idlib is the last major stronghold of the “opposition” forces Bashar Assad. In the event of his loss, it will be possible to talk about the transition of the Syrian conflict to a fundamentally different stage - a full-fledged war will end, the threat of the disintegration of Syria is over, and a significant part of the released forces and means can be directed to restoring the country and normalizing the humanitarian situation.

Yes, there will still be the Kurdish sector. But the Kurds, in general, were never such ardent antagonists of official Damascus - rather, they took up weapon out of necessity, defending himself not so much from government forces as from militants of the ISIL banned in Russia. The rather close cooperation of the Kurds with the Americans complicates the prospects for bilateral negotiations, but it does not make them impossible in principle - the Kurds are likely to be happy to gain some kind of autonomy within the framework of a united Syria and finally calmly heal on their lands.

This development of the situation is clearly contrary to the interests of the United States and its satellites. And they certainly will not miss the chance to stop the Syrian army offensive in Idlib. Moreover, there is a well-developed scheme for this with the organization of a provocation with the alleged use of chemical weapons by the Syrian army and the subsequent rocket attack of the forces of the Western coalition against Syrian troops and military facilities.

Preparations for the implementation of this scenario are in full swing: according to the Russian military, the militants are already ready for a provocation. Moreover, according to reports from Syria, militants are suspected of abducting children, who can be used as a target for provocation. This time there will be no “Khasanov boys” speaking in the OPCW with the accusations of the “White Helmets” - if the information of the Syrians is correct, all the boys and girls in the video of this “human rights” organization will be dead.

And for the power of provocation, the Americans in the eastern Mediterranean powerful naval fist. The aircraft carrier "Harry Truman" returned there, carrying about ninety combat aircraft and helicopters, accompanied by its unchanging retinue, in which there is also a Ticonderoga type cruiser, and the destroyers Arly Burk, and submarines armed with Tomahawk cruise missiles .

“Quite by accident, just by coincidence”, on Saturday in the Mediterranean, joint maneuvers of the Russian Navy and the Russian Space Forces began. The maneuvers involved 26 ships collected from the Northern, Baltic, Black Sea fleets, and 34 aircraft. The flagship of the squadron is the Marshal Ustinov missile cruiser, and among the main combat units frigates of the “Admiral” series of the 11356 Pr series “Admiral Grigorovich”, “Admiral Makarov” and “Admiral Essen” can be mentioned.

With regard to the naval part of the maneuvers, it can be said for sure - this is the most powerful grouping of the Russian Navy, which has gathered in recent years outside the Russian water area itself. And the very fact of their “sudden” gathering in one place and at the same time is quite eloquent, since the plan for the trips of ships is drawn up long before their actual departure to the sea. That is, by doing so we get grounds to say that the whole operation against the so-called idlib gadyushnik is planned in nature and is unlikely to be postponed due to anyone's threats.

And the threats have already been received. And from the President of the United States, Donald Trump. He, on his Twitter account, warned Russia against a "serious humanitarian error in Syria." And this is also a direct evidence that someone in Syria is preparing a major provocation in the humanitarian sphere. And it also convinces us that even the top leadership of the United States knows about the upcoming provocation.

Do not fall behind and the American media. CNN reported on Saturday that American military experts had already made a list of targets for which an American strike would be dealt in case of (attention!) Damascus chemical weapons. That is, military experts, to whom CNN refers, also have no special doubts that Damascus will use chemical weapons. And where does such confidence come from? Oh yeah, they themselves organize all this ...

The question of whether our ships are now enough off the coast of Syria to repel a missile strike by the Americans and their allies is not at all simple. And here we must understand two things.

With all the tensions of Russian-American relations, hardly anyone in the Kremlin wants to start a real war with the United States. Therefore, let us immediately discard the arguments about the shock potential of our group in the eastern Mediterranean. He certainly is, but ...

In addition, we must understand that the interception of air targets in international airspace can lead to an undesirable error, comparable to the destruction of the Malaysian "Boeing" over the Donbas. Of course, the zone of military exercises can be closed. But it is unlikely that this will be done for a long time - the region is quite lively, and Lebanon and Israel simply cannot be left without air traffic.

Air defense forces receive complete freedom only in the airspace of Syria. And while repelling the April rocket attack, this turned out to be almost enough - presumably, 103% were intercepted from 69 missiles launched by the American coalition forces against Syrian targets. Moreover, the strikes on the most significant military objects like air bases and military airfields were almost completely repelled (some of the objects were slightly damaged).

However, with a rather high degree of probability, it can be assumed that the Americans also drew conclusions from those events, and the new blow would be immeasurably more powerful.

In this case, it will not be possible to manage only with Syrian air defense systems, and ours the fleetas well as VKS fighters and air defense and electronic warfare systems deployed in Syria, will have to begin to perform some real combat missions. The Shtil-1 air defense systems, which are at the disposal of the Admiral's series frigates, and the S-300F Fort, which Marshal Ustinov is armed with, are quite capable of handling Tomahawk-type missiles and closing one of the alleged strike directions.

In addition, the radar systems available on ships can be used to detect and classify air targets with further guidance of fighters from the Hmeimim base on them. Also, information from the ships will be transmitted to ground command centers and the calculations of the air defense system, which will allow the latter to better navigate the environment and be ready for the appearance of "guests" in a certain period of time.

However, one should not rely too much on the capabilities of the fleet. It is obvious that the Americans will prefer to attack from different directions - including from the Persian Gulf, through the territory of Saudi Arabia and Jordan. In addition, there is information about the possible use by the Americans of operational-tactical ballistic missiles, including from the northern direction, from the zone controlled by the Kurds. These directions are not controlled in any way by the forces of the fleet, which means that it will be possible to rely only on air defense systems and fighter Aviation Air defense.

But no matter how hard we try, everything will not work out. The real answer to the question of how the situation will develop in Syria, we will probably receive in the coming days. Moreover, the Russian VKS has already dealt its first blow.

And this means, among other things, that the Russian General Staff and the highest political leadership of the country, who have a little more reliable information in their hands, are confident in their abilities. Let us hope that they really calculated everything.

And we wish good luck to our military. It does not hurt them in any way.
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  1. parusnik
    parusnik 6 September 2018 12: 16
    +1
    In this case, it will not be possible to manage only with Syrian air defense systems, and our fleet, as well as the airborne fighters and air defense and electronic warfare systems deployed in Syria, will have to begin to carry out some real combat missions.
    ... Information on the web passed that the missile cruiser "Marshal Ustinov", with the help of shipborne electronic warfare, blocked the airbase of British aircraft in Cyprus, they cannot take off, the instruments fail .. How correct this information is, I cannot say ..
    1. Grandfather
      Grandfather 6 September 2018 12: 39
      +2
      Americans understand that a massive strike by the Kyrgyz Republic will push through Syria’s air defense, it’s just not enough. and if there is such a blow, then the losses will be significant. Of course, the Case will also regulate, somewhere, in passing, somewhere, the KR will simply fall without flying. We will see.
    2. Double major
      Double major 6 September 2018 12: 41
      -4
      There was such infa. I remembered how our American destroyer was "turned off" at Sushka. I think it's true.
      1. kuz363
        kuz363 6 September 2018 12: 50
        -5
        Do not talk nonsense. Specialists in electronics have long proved that the SU-25 equipment, which is thousands of times smaller in power than the destroyer locators, could not suppress the locators in any way. This stuffing is designed for suckers to make them proud of their powerful weapons
        1. HAM
          HAM 6 September 2018 13: 11
          +5
          Not the locators are choking, but the receiving part ... so the power of the destroyer locators has nothing to do with it ...
          1. Imobile
            Imobile 6 September 2018 20: 21
            +1
            Vladimir told the truth, this is for suckers. To lower our fighting power. Hope for a lie is the worst crime. Sobering up will be very bitter.
          2. kuz363
            kuz363 7 September 2018 11: 25
            +1
            The receiving part also does not work by itself, but is connected with the power of the locator. In addition, it is able to cut off extraneous interference. If it were so easy to suppress ship locators from airplanes, then the Americans would not just look at Russian propaganda through their fingers. They would have envisaged opposition or acted similarly.
        2. Sergey39
          Sergey39 6 September 2018 13: 18
          +4
          Whether this is true or not, we do not know for certain, but the refusal to supply S-300 installations to the Syrian army will come sideways.
        3. Shkiper
          Shkiper 6 September 2018 13: 19
          +5
          Vladimir, I am not very cool in the part of electronics, but the electronic warfare in my "training" was taught and taught well. So, when operating on radiation, the NK radar is naturally more powerful than that of an airplane, but the receivers "clog", and there is not power, but sensitivity. The whole highlight is to catch the frequency at which the receiver works and the algorithm for changing it. EW specialists can correct me.
          1. Black sniper
            Black sniper 6 September 2018 14: 07
            0
            Su was unarmed, turning on the electronic warfare 20 times made a "barrel" over the destroyer and flew to the base, the Americans could not go to him because of the electronics failure, and they were ashamed to shoot from a machine gun. laughing
            1. Tatanka Yotanka
              Tatanka Yotanka 6 September 2018 19: 45
              +3
              Quote: Black Sniper
              Americans couldn’t visit him because of an electronics failure

              and who reported this? probably the same one who said that part of the crew quit because of the omnipotent "khibins" - which were never installed on su 24
        4. lis-ik
          lis-ik 6 September 2018 19: 29
          +3
          Quote: kuz363
          Do not talk nonsense. Specialists in electronics have long proved that the SU-25 equipment, which is thousands of times smaller in power than the destroyer locators, could not suppress the locators in any way. This stuffing is designed for suckers to make them proud of their powerful weapons

          Actually, the SU-24 was there, and yes they wrote a lot about it that it had nothing to do with it.
    3. Jack O'Neill
      Jack O'Neill 6 September 2018 15: 42
      +4
      ... Information on the web passed that the missile cruiser "Marshal Ustinov", with the help of shipborne electronic warfare, blocked the airbase of British aircraft in Cyprus, they cannot take off, the instruments fail .. How correct this information is, I cannot say ..

      Instead of a thousand words:
  2. Vlad5307
    Vlad5307 6 September 2018 12: 19
    +1
    Yes, it's time for the Syrian air defense to shoot down several carriers of VZ missiles, not only American, but also Israeli. So for the prevention of joint mischief from these "friends". With such a massive raid, "overlays" are possible!
    1. Double major
      Double major 6 September 2018 12: 45
      +6
      Neither the United States nor Israel are afraid of the Syrians. If they shoot down something with the pilots, the response will arrive instantly. Actually, I believe that their provocations are designed for that - to infuriate the CAA, and then crush them. Ours, most likely, will not touch Lavrov's "partners" - only their missiles. Although it would be high time, they were insolent at the end.
      1. KaPToC
        KaPToC 6 September 2018 20: 48
        -1
        Quote: Twice Major
        They will bring down something with the pilots - the answer will fly instantly.

        If the Syrians knock someone over Syria - there will be nothing the United States and Israel will simply wipe themselves out. Another question is whether they can?
      2. kuz363
        kuz363 7 September 2018 11: 33
        +1
        Totally right! They will crumble to smithereens, only first they will ask brave Russian generals about the presence of Russians on Syrian bases. And if there is, then they will give time for evacuation.
    2. Charik
      Charik 6 September 2018 12: 47
      +4
      What are you, this is what they are waiting for the Syrians to shoot down and then they will not trample Syria at all, even with the help of Russian bases, that is why Kitaychiks were not brought up to the 'exercises' with a dozen ships? Then they would definitely not have thrown axes.
      1. Black sniper
        Black sniper 6 September 2018 14: 12
        +2
        And the teachings with the Chinese in the Mediterranean are not a bad idea. hi
  3. bessmertniy
    bessmertniy 6 September 2018 12: 33
    +2
    Severe alignment. But the adder must be destroyed. But Trump needs to be more restrained in this situation - will get drawn deep into this conflict - will lose influence on others. And one Afghan is worth it. negative
  4. Charik
    Charik 6 September 2018 12: 33
    +1
    Two "Bears" have just returned (at the beginning of the week they went east) from east to north they passed over the black earth of Voronezh in a monocle and looked at the sound, the sound, you can't confuse it with anything.
    1. Double major
      Double major 6 September 2018 12: 49
      0
      Not everything is clear to them with me - either they hit a gaddyushnik, or they imitated missile launches ... They are blurry in the media ... I generally get the impression that ours are afraid of aggravations, and they are saving ammunition for this case. It’s clear that missiles cannot be delivered through the straits once or twice ...
      1. Black sniper
        Black sniper 6 September 2018 14: 17
        0
        The Navy did not crash, fuel depots and UAVs were bombed from Khmeimim, as well as a workshop for their production. hi
  5. igorbrsv
    igorbrsv 6 September 2018 12: 39
    +7
    . From the 14th to the 18th of June 1982, the Shield-82 exercises were launched in the USSR, which went down in history as the "seven-hour nuclear war." They began on June 15 with the landing of air and sea landing forces of the 810th Separate Marine Brigade of the Black Sea Fleet, the 217th and 300th Parachute Regiments of the 98th Guards Airborne Division, as well as the 1st Parachute the airborne battalion of the 39th separate airborne assault brigade. M. Begin urgently flew to the USA, but R. Reagan refused to accept him. On June 18, exercises of strategic missile forces began. The launches of ground-based and submarine-launched ballistic missiles, cruise missiles from aircraft, the interception of a satellite by the Cosmos-1379 fighter satellite and the destruction of two UR-135 intercontinental missile warheads over the Sary-Shagan test site shocked the international community.

    And this is how they forced peace in the region last time (Arab-Israeli conflict 1982)
  6. 2329 Carpenter
    2329 Carpenter 6 September 2018 12: 46
    +2
    I wonder what is cheaper: "ax" or 48H6E2?
  7. kuz363
    kuz363 6 September 2018 12: 52
    -6
    So the great helmsman said long ago that ISIS was defeated! Then who is the war with?
    1. igorbrsv
      igorbrsv 6 September 2018 12: 57
      +1
      With "moderate" opposition
      1. Double major
        Double major 6 September 2018 13: 10
        +3
        Well, yes ... That’s why the Washington Regional Committee was alarmed.
    2. lopvlad
      lopvlad 6 September 2018 13: 12
      +1
      Quote: kuz363
      Then who is the war with?


      with ISIS accomplices and there are many more.
    3. Okolotochny
      Okolotochny 6 September 2018 13: 40
      0
      Are you for Mao Zen Dong? More than alive?
  8. lopvlad
    lopvlad 6 September 2018 13: 12
    -2
    In the event of his loss, it will be possible to talk about the transition of the Syrian conflict to a fundamentally different stage - a full-fledged war will end, the threat of the collapse of Syria will pass, and a significant part of the released forces and funds can be used to restore the country and normalize the humanitarian situation.


    and daisies will bloom all over the earth, which the American military will weave into their Bosko on freshly built bases in Syria.
  9. bratchanin3
    bratchanin3 6 September 2018 13: 42
    +2
    The world is once again on the verge of conflict, which, in certain circumstances, can serve as a fuse for world war.

    The world is not on the verge of conflicts again, but the Americans are constantly thinning out the human "bed". But this does not mean that the world is on the verge of a world war. The Americans or the Western world, if you like, will NEVER start a nuclear war (the world war has been going on for a long time). I hope that the Russian armada did not come to the shores of Syria for a walk and will fulfill its task resolutely.