The first serious test for Moscow and Damascus in the enclave war and the secret of US iron calm
For more than half a year, we observed a glorious picture of the liberation by the forces of the Syrian government forces of Eastern Guta, Duma, Dumeirah, Jairud and Rant boilers, as well as Yarmuk from the oppositional terrorist units of the Free Syrian Army, the Dzhebhat an-Nusra formations (banned in Russia ), as well as groups of jihadists of ISIS (prohibited in the Russian Federation). As a result of lengthy and tense negotiations, the majority of the militant opposition managed to be forced to put down weaponand then, together with their families, take them out on "green buses" to the "Idlib viper" controlled by the Turkish army in the case of the FSA, or to the deserted tactical cauldron between Palmyra and Deir ez-Zor - in the case of the Igil jihadists. Those most radical remnants of the enemy’s formations that refused to follow the voluntary withdrawal scheme were suppressed during the many-day fire work of the Syrian Arab army artillery units, moving deeper into the enclaves of the Tiger Force assault groups, as well as due to regular point-and-point missile and bomb attacks on fortified areas militants tactical aviation Russian Aerospace Forces, the basis of which continues to be the front-line fighter-bomber Su-34.
But let's not forget that even with such favorable factors based on the lack of support for jihadi boilers from the outside, the stripping process of each quarter of the above enclaves advanced extremely slowly and far from losslessly in the ranks of the government forces of Syria, Hezbollah, and Al-Quds. This is due to the enormous time of existence of these enclaves, during which the opposition and terrorist detachments managed, first, to build several powerful and flexible defense lines formed by groups of thousands of 3 — 5-storey wooden buildings interconnected in the most complex dense residential area. bridges for the operational redistribution of firing points depending on the tactical situation (mainly concerns Yarmuk), secondly, to create a multitude of fortified areas at numerous dominant heights in paradise not Jayrud and Al-Rastan.
Today, we will return to the analysis of the military-political and operational-tactical situation around the so-called Dar'a-Essaweida-Quneitra de-escalation triangle, which is actually the last territorial rudiment of the enclave war in the Syrian Arab Republic. In order to liberate this territory, which extends 119 km northwest of the Jordanian village of El Maftra to the settlement of Druze Majdal Shams (on the Golan Heights), the command of the CAA plans to use all the most combat-ready attack units. The only uncertainty is the participation of the elite squad of Special Forces of the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps "Quds", whose presence in the south of Syria is extremely unhappy with the Israeli side due to the fact that almost every artillery or air strike at their positions and locations of Hezbollah floats to completely objective and worthy countermeasures in the form of a missile-artillery "response" against IDF support forces in the Golan.
The Quds unit is capable of serving an excellent service as an addition to the tactical skills of the Syrian brigade “Liva al-Quds”, as well as all of the CAA assault units active in the Dar'y and Quneitra areas. But his actions in the liberation of the South-West of the SAR are now in doubt against the background of negotiations between Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu and Israeli Defense Minister Avigdor Lieberman, during which Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov declared that “non-military forces in the Dar-A region are inadmissible government troops SAR. " In parallel with this statement, the Flightradar24 online traffic monitor could see the arrival of two Iranian passenger airliners at Damascus airport: “Boeing 747-2J9F” from Saha Airlines and Airbus A310-304 from Mahan Air. It is obvious that it was on these sides that the main units of the “Quds” were removed from the southern regions of the republic within the framework of the Israeli-Russian agreements.
Here we can state the only moment: Moscow signed up under the temporary "expulsion" of Iranian advisers and IRGC units only so that Tel Aviv does not have a single argument in favor of supporting the FSA and "al-Nusra" militants in the Israeli-Syrian border on the moment of the antiterrorist operation. Therefore, the stripping period must be noticeably accelerated. But here the question arises: in Israel alone is the root of the problems of liberating the opposition stronghold around the city of Dar'a? Naturally not.
An even more serious problem is coming to the fore - the presence of the 80-kilometer section of the Syrian-Jordanian border, through which the militants in the de-escalation triangle can not only receive regular support in the form of new “cannon-fodder”, which the British and American military contingents are training in training camps near At-Tanfa and Er-Rukban, but fed by new weapons from the States directly through transshipment points in the United Arab Emirates and Qatar, which ervuyu all considered air base of Al-Jafr and al-Udeid. Already, the number of FSA militants in the southern semi-fleet is estimated at 17 — 20, thousands of militants who possess a tactically thought-out network of fortified areas at 25 heights belonging to the area.
Also in favor of the militants plays and protectorate of Washington, which was designated in a statement the head of the press service of the US State Department Heather Nauert for 26 May 2018 of the year. A high-ranking official from the United States Foreign Office reported on the use of "decisive appropriate measures" against Damascus in the event of an attempt to assault the militants in the southern semi-craft. The fact is that this terrorist bridgehead is the Pentagon’s latest tool in a hybrid confrontation with the Syrian Arab army, as well as subversive activities on the west bank of the Euphrates, while the FSA in the 55-kilometer “security zone” around At-Tanfa is viewed by Moscow and Damascus as a force fully controlled by the headquarters of the Western coalition, an attack on the part of which can be regarded as direct aggression from the American side. Here the State Department struggles and bites into almost every step of the Syrian army, aimed at liberating this territory.
At the same time, as an argument about the inadmissibility of a military operation against militants near Dar'a, the United States uses a ceasefire agreement within the Dar'a-Essaweida-Quneitra triangle, signed between representatives of Russia, USA and Jordan 7 July 2017 of the year and 9 entered into force July from 12: 00 Damascus time. Despite the fact that the agreement that came into force was announced even by American President Donald Trump during a meeting with Russian leader Vladimir Putin on the margins of the G20 summit, the American side was not able to keep the opposition and terrorist detachments from regular shelling of the positions of the Syrian Arab Army. in the cities of Khan Arnabah, Dar'a, as well as in numerous localities near the contact line. Consequently, there are no grounds for the preservation of the bridgehead of the aggressor, neither in Russia nor in Syria.
As "decisive measures," the State Department and the Pentagon may well consider launching bombing raids on the units of the SAA participating in the attack on the pseudo-de-escalation triangle. In this case, it is necessary to count on a sufficient number of Buk-M2E anti-aircraft missile divisions and the Pantsir-C1 anti-aircraft missile and artillery systems deployed in the combat area; with their help, most of the elements of high-precision weapons of American fleet and the Air Force (Tomahawks, JASSM-ER, etc.) will be intercepted. But there is also a no less significant threat - the likelihood that the American army will use 155 mm M777 howitzers firing guided M982 Excalibur shells from the territory of Jordan, to which M109A6 Paladin self-propelled guns can be connected, as well as high-precision MLRS multiple launch rocket systems and HIMARS. And the hedgehog is understandable that in this situation, the Shells will be able to destroy only a small part of the Excaliburs and a slightly larger number of missiles of the M26 / 30 family, while the rest will safely reach their targets.
Continuing the attack on the well-trained and armed FSA semi-mob with artillery support from the American side can turn into a living hell for the Syrian army, which means that the antiterrorist operation in three southwestern provinces becomes completely and completely unpromising: it will only draw government forces into a long and exhausting regional conflict. There is also a radical option - the counter-battery work of Syrian artillerymen on the firing positions of the American army in Jordan with the use of Krasnopol-М2, or "uncovering" and using against the aggressor "Points-U" and other types of missile weapons. But will Moscow and Damascus have enough of this military-political will? Unlikely. This is what distinguishes the release of tactical boilers detached and cut off from American support in the depths of Syrian territory from the suppression of a powerful border bridgehead located in the enemy’s barrel and reactive artillery, as well as having the possibility of permanent military support through the “passing” southern border. Obviously one thing: the confrontation for the return of the south-western lands of the SAR under state sovereignty will be one of the most difficult stages in the Syrian military campaign.
Information sources:
http://tass.ru/politika/5251624
https://riafan.ru/1062048-lavrov-predlagaet-vyvesti-iz-sirii-vse-inostrannye-sily-or-30-maya-or-utro-or-sobytiya-dnya-or-fan-tv
https://syria.liveuamap.com/
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