Military Review

Russia and Syria are waiting for new tests. What is behind the resolution on the 30-day cease-fire?

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The extremely complex and unpredictable operational-strategic situation that developed simultaneously in three areas of the Syrian theater of operations has reached such proportions that it is sometimes quite difficult to consider in this chaos the transition of the Syrian company to a completely different phase, consisting in testing Moscow and Damascus for political maturity ", as well as the willingness to act in their own interests, despite the multilateral diplomatic and military pressure from the United States and Western European countries.

Apparently, about three weeks ago, the hotheads in the US defense department deeply hoped that the Russian and Siberian armed forces of Syria would leave unanswered an incident with a massed rocket-artillery attack of the United States that were completely stuck in the confrontation with pro-Turkish militants and Turkish convoys HIMARS, "Ganshipov" and "Apache" on the units of the Syrian militia and other friendly forces near the bed of the Euphrates in the province of Deir ez-Zor. The calculation was made solely on the fact that Damascus and Moscow will swallow this spit of our Western "colleagues", and without taking any countermeasures, they will quietly continue to perform the usual Sisyphean work - unceasing local clashes with the pro-Turkish opposition forces (" “Nusra”, FSA) near Hadera, Abu Dukhur and Taybat al-Imam, while the Pentagon will continue to form the so-called “New Syrian Army” (also known as the “Army of the North of Syria”) in Hasek “ backbone "and SDF fighters for future capture of the territories liberated by the government forces. But the first point of their ingenious strategy was not destined to be fully realized.

A very unexpected move by the Syrian leadership and command of the Russian grouping of troops in Syria for the West was the decision to conduct a large-scale offensive operation on the Eastern Guta - the main "green" enclave of militants of the Free Syrian Army in the vicinity of Damascus, which could eventually become one of the bindings links of the Idlib Gadyushnik with the southern opposition enclave of Dar'a, supported by Israel, the United States and Saudi Arabia across the southern borders of the SAR. It is worth noting that the FSA detachments in Eastern Guta are currently controlled by far more than Ankara alone, but also Washington and Riyadh. Why did Riyadh not condemn Operation Olive Branch and support the FSA enclaves? The answer is simple: the SA king Salaman ibn Abdul-Aziz and his entourage have common interests with Erdogan regarding the division of the western territories of the Syrian Arab Republic. Washington wants to grab its big party here, despite maintaining control over the entire eastern coast of the Euphrates.

The offensive on East Guta began with the standard for all assault operations artillery preparation and the application of powerful tactical missile and bomb strikes aviation The Russian Air Force and the Syrian Air Force at FSA strongholds in Nashabiya, Misrab, Ain-Tarm, Irbin, etc., which led to losses among militants and civilians, and also allowed local media to once again present to the general public, a "picturesque" and favorable to the States picture in the style of "Russians and Syrians are lawless and violate human rights." For Washington, Kuwait, Stockholm and the leaderships of other Western regimes, this was a wonderful reason for pushing in the UN Security Council a resolution establishing a 30-day ceasefire in Syria with the possibility of humanitarian operations. Notice when massive Turkish artillery and missile attacks against the numerous cities and villages of Afrin canton began within the framework of the Turkish criminal military operation "Olive Branch", there was no question of a temporary resolution for establishing operational silence; there was only useless accusatory rhetoric from the lips of foreign ministers, as well as other senior diplomats.

The reason why Western states ignored the critical military and humanitarian situation in Afrin is that preservation of the Kurdish canton under the control of the pro-government Syrian Arab Army improves the Middle East alignment for both the current government of Bashar al-Assad and the presence of the Russian Armed Forces in the Middle East and Eastern Mediterranean . But Eastern Guta is an enclave much more important for the West: here, as the last days show, the FSA anti-Assad militants are much more tactically savvy than in the “Idlib Gadyushnik”, and there are hundreds of times more opportunities to influence Damascus due to its proximity . This is what the 30-day cease-fire resolution was worked out in a hurry to give FSA rebels time to rest, replenish their ammunition, regroup and form more tactically effective defensive orders. However, the first "fruits" of this "humanitarian" action of the West under the auspices of the UN appeared already on February 27, when the Free Syrian Army, violating the cease-fire, tried to launch an offensive in the Khazram, Nashabiya and Duma sectors. And this is only the first days since the beginning of the resolution: it is not difficult to guess what can happen in the next three weeks.

One more reason for the emergency convocation of a meeting of the UN Security Council can be considered an unexpectedly significant increase in the fleet of the Russian Aerospace Forces Air Force at Washington Hmeimim Air Force. As you already understood, the arrival at the SAR key military airfield of a link from the 4-s of the advanced Su-57 front-line aviation systems, a link from the 4-x of the 4 ++ generation of multi-purpose fighters, as well as the second A-50U air radar was a direct consequence and countermeasure Russian VKS against the actions of the US Air Force over Deir ez-Zor. The fact is that even one link of low-profile T-50 PAK-FA fighters equipped with advanced passive optical tools (101X Atoll multispectral complex) and radio engineering (Belka complex in passive mode) reconnaissance radically changes the existing power pattern on the Syrian TVD And also A-50U, allowing them to operate without radiation H036 "Squirrel" on the radiation ... All these "unexpected guests", who arrived in the SAR through the airspace above the Caspian Sea, forced the Central Command of the US Armed Forces, as well as the coalition headquarters to carve out at least some time for understanding new operational tactical threats and developing responses. So we have a resolution on the 30-day cease-fire: the “partners” were really alarmed!

Returning to the rather acute topic of the transition of the Syrian company to a new phase in probing Moscow and Damascus for “military-political maturity”, it must be remembered that this 30-day period of the so-called “ceasefire” (neither the Turkish forces in Afghanistan, nor FSA militants in Eastern Ghut) will be spent not so much on carrying out a humanitarian operation as on increasing the military-technical potential of the Western coalition to maintain multiple superiority over the Russian Aerospace Forces and Syrian air defense. On the Afrin front, one can expect to bring the number of armored and infantry “fists” of the Turkish Ground Forces to an even greater ratio, which allows developing the offensive between the complex mountain ranges and the plateau of the Kurdish canton, and especially along the Raju-Tell-Rifat railway line. In the latter case, some Syrian militias from the SNS with RPGs in their hands and ATGMs on jihad mobiles will hardly succeed in protecting Afrin from Turkish intervention; the Kurdish Popular Self-Defense Forces YPG / YPJ will have to send regular Syrian army units, including units of the 5th assault corps, armed not with anti-tank weapons, but tanks T-72B3, D-30 howitzers, MT-12 (2A29) Rapier anti-tank guns and other “heavy buns”. Otherwise, the northern territory of Aleppo province will be completely occupied by the “rats” of Erdogan (FSA, Tahrir al-Sham and other dishonesty).

As for strengthening the capabilities of the coalition through the “Army of the North of Syria” created in the pro-American part of the Rozhava, there is no need to go to the fortuneteller either. First of all, the Pentagon continues to increase the technical capabilities of its own contingent on the eastern bank of the Euphrates with new high-precision MLRS HIMARS batteries and 155-mm M777 howitzers, firing guided Excalibur shells. Secondly, the pro-American cell of the Kurdish SDF detachments in Hasek almost every week is provided with an impressive military load, which includes both the mixed American anti-tank weapons (from TOW-2B to FGM-148 "Javelin"), and modern means of network-centric alignment (tablets and tactical information exchange terminals, digital radio stations, etc.). As you understand, with these Kurds, located on the left bank of the Euphrates, Erdogan will not have the courage to fight.

Regarding the outcome in Eastern Gute, one can only assume the immense probability of provocations using the FSA’s opposition chemical forces weapons immediately after the 30-day “truce”, in which the Western coalition countries immediately accuse the “Assad regime” for the further use of force against the Syrian Arab Army using strategic cruise missiles UGM / RGM-109E “Tomahawk Block IV” of the US Navy and British fleet, as well as the French "SCALP". Indeed, the US Permanent Representative to the United Nations, Nikki Haley, French President Emmanuel Macron and British Foreign Minister Boris Johnson have already expressed their vision of a solution to the conflict in East Ghout in the event of detecting signs of using a nuclear weapon with a missile strike. And, as you remember, signs of its use in the West have learned to skillfully find since Colin Powell’s test tubes and attacks on Iraq. Both Syrian and Russian air defense systems must be prepared for this.

Information sources:
https://ria.ru/syria/20180225/1515250694.html
https://lenta.ru/news/2018/02/26/su_57/
https://iz.ru/714254/2018-02-27/boeviki-ispolzovali-gumpauzu-v-vostochnoi-gute-dlia-nastupleniia
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29 comments
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  1. cedar
    cedar 1 March 2018 07: 19
    +4
    How many rope do not curl, and Armageddon to be.
    1. siberalt
      siberalt 1 March 2018 15: 35
      +1
      The article begins with a headline - a question - "what is hidden behind a truce" and ends with that question after reading it. Read even along, even across. Many letters, and the topic does not even begin with that. The fact is that Russia forced the Americans to adopt a resolution amended on the 5-hour daily humanitarian corridor, and it was at this time that the SAA guarantees not to shoot terrorists in Eastern Ghouta. For this there is the remaining 19 hours a day. So what then is the chip "profitable" for the United States and terrorists? It was not for nothing that they organized professional videos about the “horrors” from Damascus instead of “white helmets” there. winked
  2. rotmistr60
    rotmistr60 1 March 2018 07: 21
    +18
    The situation is certainly difficult. But if you calmly think without emotions, it turns out that we are partly to blame. Russia once again tried to play with the Americans honestly, probably believing that it seems that the task is for all to do the same - the destruction of ISIS. Hence the agreements with the Americans on the exclusion of incidents in the air, some areas of responsibility, red lines drawn exclusively by the Americans, the exchange of information that quietly flowed to the militants, etc. As a result - the current situation in Syria. It is impossible to play with the Americans by the rules that they do not and will not follow. Without a twinge of conscience, they are hammering the Syrian army, leveling the cities with the earth, and at the same time transferring all the blame to Russia. And we are all talking about some kind of international law, which everyone has long scored.
    1. karish
      karish 1 March 2018 08: 17
      +1
      Quote: rotmistr60
      As a result - the current situation in Syria. It is impossible to play with the Americans by the rules that they do not and will not follow.

      Americans? and what were some agreements with the Americans 7
      Let's turn to the parties with which there were an agreement.
      As for example with Turkey in the de-escalation zone. in which it seemed like no military action was supposed to take place, but VKS planes bombed her.
      Or the same East Guta - it’s kind of like the same de-escalation zone.
      No one in the Syria does anything, no contracts (or what else these scribbles call 0 - do not work.
      Iranians do what they want. the Turks. Russia - its own. his assad., his states.
      East Guta - the Damascus region in size almost like Damascus itself - 400 thousand people, the densest buildings.
      1. Alber
        Alber 1 March 2018 09: 33
        +4
        Quote: karish
        Quote: rotmistr60
        As a result - the current situation in Syria. It is impossible to play with the Americans by the rules that they do not and will not follow.

        Americans? and what were some agreements with the Americans 7
        Let's turn to the parties with which there were an agreement.
        As for example with Turkey in the de-escalation zone. in which it seemed like no military action was supposed to take place, but VKS planes bombed her.
        Or the same East Guta - it’s kind of like the same de-escalation zone.
        No one in the Syria does anything, no contracts (or what else these scribbles call 0 - do not work.
        Iranians do what they want. the Turks. Russia - its own. his assad., his states.
        East Guta - the Damascus region in size almost like Damascus itself - 400 thousand people, the densest buildings.

        patamushta you are to blame! you turned up a gadyushngik, you financed ishil, you provided your territories for rest, training and treatment of bandits
      2. Shteffan
        Shteffan 1 March 2018 12: 06
        +4
        Iranians do what they want. the Turks. Russia - its own. Assad of his own., his states. :::::::: ISRAEL-OWN. -forgetting the elect to mention. Why are there no logs in your eye?
        1. trump
          trump 1 March 2018 14: 14
          +4
          So I also had the same idea, but in general this is typical Jewish modesty
      3. Slava slava
        Slava slava 1 March 2018 13: 58
        +1
        Everything in Syria should be done only by Assad and the Russian Aerospace Forces, as invited, the rest to go out with things.
        1. Shahno
          Shahno 1 March 2018 14: 00
          +1
          Will you bring things?
          1. Alber
            Alber 2 March 2018 13: 58
            +3
            Quote: Shahno
            Will you bring things?

            yours, with pleasure ...
      4. trump
        trump 1 March 2018 14: 11
        +1
        Quote: karish
        Iranians do what they want. the Turks. Russia - its own. his assad., his states.


        Well, about your Israel, why did you so modestly keep silent? He’s what he does, tell me, don’t keep secret
    2. Alber
      Alber 1 March 2018 09: 31
      0
      Quote: rotmistr60
      The situation is certainly difficult. But if you calmly think without emotions, it turns out that we are partly to blame. Russia once again tried to play with the Americans honestly, probably believing that it seems that the task is for all to do the same - the destruction of ISIS. Hence the agreements with the Americans on the exclusion of incidents in the air, some areas of responsibility, red lines drawn exclusively by the Americans, the exchange of information that quietly flowed to the militants, etc. As a result - the current situation in Syria. It is impossible to play with the Americans by the rules that they do not and will not follow. Without a twinge of conscience, they are hammering the Syrian army, leveling the cities with the earth, and at the same time transferring all the blame to Russia. And we are all talking about some kind of international law, which everyone has long scored.

      Again on ... boot lousy Americans ...
      not a gram of faith by this cunning and their ward. And the Papuans, beat. and beat nonstop
    3. nikolaev
      nikolaev 1 March 2018 11: 48
      +2
      Having started, it is necessary to finish quickly and hard, and not "chew snot" (this is not about the military - they are great!) when the war is on and people are dying.
      Such a half-hearted indecisive policy leads to ever new human casualties.
      Delaying a radical solution to the problem allows the enemy to build up strength, and for this he needs time, since the delivery of troops has to be done from across the ocean.
      So it is in Ukraine.
  3. g1washntwn
    g1washntwn 1 March 2018 08: 06
    +3
    The connection between the cries of a ceasefire and the receipt of the lyuli by different barmales and "terminators" has been noticed for a long time and is obvious. It’s bad that we still continue to play in peace initiatives, but we don’t work out other ways and stupidly sit out our pants.
  4. Strashila
    Strashila 1 March 2018 09: 34
    0
    What ... what ... help terrorists, Americans and Saudis need to transfer weapons, carry out the transfer and work out the coherence of the terrorists, conduct reconnaissance of objects ... just give them a break and spend dollars.
  5. sib.ataman
    sib.ataman 1 March 2018 11: 41
    +1
    Even about the election, no one remembers? Have you already passed? It is very good that the tattered landings of yours were rushed to tear the bear! So let's see how Vova can defend Russia's national interests! Or what? ...
  6. iouris
    iouris 1 March 2018 11: 53
    +1
    "Partners" control oil and its transportation routes, i.e. Assad's ally must be maintained. It seems that the next "truce" means that US intervention in the internal affairs of Syria and the foreign policy of the Russian Federation has acquired a systematic character.
  7. Snail N9
    Snail N9 1 March 2018 12: 25
    0
    As I understood from the words that "the first part" is completed, the "second part" is not completed. Thus, the United States retains a huge chunk of Syrian territory, where it intensively forms the new government and new armed forces. If you look at the situation honestly, this piece of Syria occupied by US-controlled forces is completely torn off. Well, no one will climb there, neither Assad, nor the Russians, nor the Turks. So, we must admit that Syria is already completely divided, while "de facto", it remains to consolidate "de jure".
  8. A. Privalov
    A. Privalov 1 March 2018 13: 50
    +1
    So, as they say, hunting, she more than bondage. The Middle East has such a place - it's easier to climb there, but getting out is not easy. The entrance is like a gate, and the exit is 2. For five tyshsh Versti rode, but did not decide what is necessary there Chevo. To protect Gypsies with Russian bayonets, to liberate the fraternal Syrian people from their adversaries, to have their own bases there, then to protect their borders far away. As you explain yourself, so will it become clear how and how. In the meantime, if you please shave ... Took for it, do not say that it is not for that. hi
    1. Alber
      Alber 2 March 2018 14: 02
      0
      Quote: A. Privalov
      Five tyshsh Versti rode, but did not decide what is necessary there. That-if Upyrya protect Russian bayonets, t

      But your disgust all over the world is not the first century ...
      behind all dirty tricks, revolutions, crises, wars, disguised Jewish ears stick out ...
      1. A. Privalov
        A. Privalov 3 March 2018 17: 54
        +1
        Quote: Alber
        Quote: A. Privalov
        Five tyshsh Versti rode, but did not decide what is necessary there. That-if Upyrya protect Russian bayonets, t

        But your disgust all over the world is not the first century ...
        behind all dirty tricks, revolutions, crises, wars, disguised Jewish ears stick out ...

        Even on the stairwells and in the elevators they urinate and the buttons burn there, the roads were all destroyed, the mud was lit. Because of them, almost half of the country carries water from the column, drowns the stove with coal and poops into a hole in the floor. And all these soup ... fool
        1. 75 hammer
          75 hammer 5 March 2018 14: 53
          0
          You ghouls yourself: Video “Yesh Dean”: Magavniki throw a grenade at their parents with a baby, and there are no such facts! Come Judah!
  9. Gunther
    Gunther 1 March 2018 14: 25
    +1
    Quote: karish
    Americans? and what were some agreements with the Americans 7

    Yes, they were and are.
    search engine to help you)))

    Quote: karish
    Iranians do what they want. the Turks. рRussia - its

    Well, as you have already been told - rider is doing chaos, striking air strikes on neighboring states (Syria, Lebanon).

    Also, the riders warmed up the terrorists - in their hospitals they are restoring their damaged health.
    Something like this)))
  10. cedar
    cedar 1 March 2018 15: 27
    +1
    Quote: karish
    Iranians do what they want. the Turks. Russia - its own. his assad., his states.
    East Guta - the Damascus region in size almost like Damascus itself - 400 thousand people, the densest buildings.

    It’s not good to offend Izrail. He, too, is creating his own sovereign state in BV. Or not? Under the States walks?
  11. Macross
    Macross 1 March 2018 15: 38
    0
    Finding a business is not grateful. I am confused by the chemical weapons that the so-called rebels will use.
  12. Volksib
    Volksib 3 March 2018 11: 40
    0
    Russia will not leave Syria and Assad. Yes, and the strengthening of Russia in the Middle East will only intensify. The Arctic is getting used to the money invested is not small. The Arctic grouping of troops of Russia is being strengthened. The North has been created. So there will be no pipe from Qatar to Europe. all sorts of curtains as well as the fight against terrorists. Russia is fighting the West and kodly podliz. So nothing has changed.
  13. steelmaker
    steelmaker 4 March 2018 09: 23
    0
    If everyone understands everything, why did they agree to a truce? I forgot! Lavrov sleeps without truce and negotiations.
  14. Hadji Murat
    Hadji Murat 5 March 2018 15: 26
    0
    Apparently there is no truce in Eastern Ghout ... on March 5, the fighting continues to the fullest ...
  15. NordUral
    NordUral 7 March 2018 20: 00
    +1
    In order to successfully fight with the Americans, we must not engage in bragging, but really arm ourselves. Otherwise, destroy our guys. But you can’t - get out of power, I personally want to live in a country that no one dares to insult or attack us. You can’t, or rather you don’t want to - dump, while we still tolerate your theft and boorish antics. There are people in the country who will be able to return honor and dignity to the country and people.