As promised many times, I am writing material on the reforms of the Ukrainian military industrial complex, the army and the transfer of equipment to the APU for 2017 a year. All data is collected from public sources, rumors in the media and private conversations, do not apply to documents with admission, special importance or for internal use.
So, let's go.
Particular attention, like last year, is paid aviation and air defense. For many reasons. Mostly, of course, because if the Russian Federation has another “coercion to peace” combed out, then aviation and cruise missiles are the only ones that have not yet been used in eastern Ukraine.
And in the Russian Federation in the air and on the PRTR, there is still a tangible advantage that cannot be neutralized by calling for a reserve component, as is the case with ground forces. The superiority is not only in numbers, but also in the generations between the newest sides (Su-30 is 4 +), performance characteristics, launch range or a possible review of on-board radar. Taking into account these moments, large-scale work is underway - officially Su-27 and Mig-29 were transmitted during the celebration of Independence Day, and there were data on the arrival of fighters in brigades. Plus cars, restored by the forces of technical and operational parts. Airplanes sent for repair and restoration are regularly flashed, the same onboard 56 SU-27 PM1, which was shipped in August, or two “fresh” onboard 12 and 21, which were photographed in a killed state during transportation to MiGremont ".
Approximately in 2017-m eight to ten fighters were transferred to the troops. Today, spotters on the photo and video recorded 36 Su-27 and 46 Mig-29 of various modifications, including combat training. 85 flying fourth generation fighter. These are four abbreviated regiments. For a second, the Polish Air Force is the 48 F-16C / D, plus the 32 MiG-29. Suddenly 80 pieces. The same class (F-16 in the “Block 52 +” variant of course has a more modern radar, plus the ability to reset adjustable bombs and additional tanks). True, given that Poland spends three times more on defense - it is worthwhile to realize what kind of titanic work Ukraine is doing for such a modest price. After all, this is not just a repair and gradual budget modernization - this is training pilots, this is the restoration of airfields, this is the infrastructure for aviation commandant's offices, these are commonplace canteens for flight crews, an increase in spending due to flight hours and the generated glider life, many of which are already on 25-30 years old. Money, money and money. And at the same time, we already contain an aviation group larger than each of the countries of Eastern Europe, although a year and a half ago the spotters had confirmed numbers by about 20% less. Big step forward.
The average flight time of a pilot is up to 48-50 hours. This is a bit, but there are nuances. We do not need to conduct a deep aviation operation, break through the air defense system for hundreds of kilometers. The task of the Air Force of Ukraine is to stop the enemy air offensive over its territory. The whole logic of what is happening is subordinated to this task - the reconstruction of the runway in Chernivtsi (now the practice of military and civilian sharing is widely used in Ukraine), the transfer of the 204 brigade from Kulbakino to Lutsk, which revived the airfield in Uman, summer exercises of fighters in Cherkasy. To disperse the boards, not to allow the enemy to disable them with the first strike, to force him to enter the operational depth - the long-term goal of all these movements.
All the legends that it is possible to completely suppress air defense, remove aviation from the game and paralyze the control of only PTRK or cruise missiles, the practice rejects - on the same base Shairat in Syria was released before 60 "Tomahawks." How long did it start to function? In a few days. Because under any fire impact there will always be an underground fuel depot or a buried tank, unaffected caponiers, and driving tankers or repairing the lane is not the highest mathematics. In Serbia, they launched under a thousand cruise missiles, but still had to go into operational depth and conduct thousands of missions with a bomb load, produce hundreds of special ammunition against radar stations, and suppress jammers in quantities from 20-25% of all sorties.
And here we have a working scenario in case of an aggravation - to force the enemy's air force to change speed, train, maneuver, so that it falls into the zone of air defense action. It does not matter - by visual channel, by external target designation of the radar station or by the regular means of the divisions, target acquisition will be conducted. Spread out over dozens of airfields and even sections of the highway, take off, start a landfill and drag “guests” into prepared shooting areas and ambushes. That the northern neighbor was coordinating - we saw during the storming of the IG Palmyra and the battles in the area of the artillery academy in Aleppo, when the militants in sneakers took positions from the mechanized units on the defensive side - how "quickly" and "effectively" VKS responded. Therefore, 48 flight hours are enough to have the skill, but not to kill the glider's resource and money for the flight hour. All the same, as in the case of aggravation, and for restraint, the main work will fall on the shoulders of air defense, where a lot of products were also shipped to 2017.
Four C-300 PS (launchers 5P85С) were transferred to Independence Day, and 2-3 SAM also flashed by orders for medium repair and restoration. By the most optimistic alignment, we are now on alert to the 30 divisions of the C-300 PS \ PT, plus in the 201, the anti-aircraft missile regiment was transferred to the restored C-300 B - an excellent complex in our conditions, despite the absence of one of the new versions rockets. Work was under way to rebuild Bukov, there were flashes of overhaul contracts for something in the area of two divisions, but we have minus Georgia there and minus lost XRUMPs in Crimea (their number is now physically close to the maximum). Two new OC regiments were raised, each with two divisions - partly from grass and storage bases, partly from the parks of two other regiments (two or three cars were transmitted at official events, and routinely without a pump from the media). Well, they actively brought back to normal “Shilka” and “Tunguska”, not to mention serious quantities of small anti-aircraft artillery and MANPADS shipped to the troops.
The course was taken as correct as possible - upgrading Os, Strel-10 and Tungusok under the figure (Ukrradarproekt plus joint programs with the Poles), and engine recharging and maintenance work for Soviet medium-range complexes. As shown by numerous control starts, the engines operate smoothly and smoothly, the aviation P-27, under the 200, which were “filed with a file” in the 2016, also “leave” without any surprises. News that Ukraine has earned a closed loop for reloading solid propellant rocket motors - one of the best for 2017 a year. Both the shooting in Bulgaria and the mass shooting in Aleksandrovka show us that in the coming years the question of “whether Ukraine’s air defense has rotted or there is gunpowder” is guaranteed to be closed: more 2 thousands of missiles for reloading and modernization are a good start for the future .
The gradual restoration of the Torah regimental kit from storage, experiments with multichannel C-125 M can be criticized to the point of frenzy, but now we don’t have any money for R & D, no funds for purchasing Western air defense systems, or a lot of time. And it is a great success that there are capacities and a reserve for the restoration of the USSR reserves - that these missiles were not cut into needles and they were not transferred for another piece of "guarantees" that factories remained where they could upgrade their heads or re-equip the engine. Well, and that the transfer to the army of the upgraded Radar Malakhit, Iskra continues to bring the three-dimensional radar 80K6T Pelikan to mind, magnetrons and spare parts for in-flight repair are ordered - the 6-8 radar is transferred and returned to service in a year. The main thing to remember is that our enemy in the event of an aggravation is not a Coalition, which produces thousands of guided munitions and 80 thousand tons of bombs and missiles on Iraq - Russians will not have hundreds of missiles in one launch, there will not be 25% of DRLO aircraft departures and jammers, there will be no 300-400-500 beads simultaneously in several waves. They will have to either work from maximum heights with the risk of hitting their troops on LBS and destroying buildings, or descending under the fire of small anti-aircraft artillery and MANPADS, or keeping outside the radius of air defense and “spamming” with cruise and tactical missile launches. In which the circular deviation of probable under 80 meters and they do not always fall into the sheds in Syria. Any massive use of aviation by the Russians, “Iskander” or “Calibrov” in the context of Ukrainian development would mean an immediate tightening of sanctions on the maximum, the cessation of gas transit to the EU, the most severe political pressure. Our investments in air defense are precisely a long-term strategy of deterrence, as well as work on the Ukrainian “missile shield” - a pill that the enemy did not plan to launch the next phase of the invasion, just roughly estimating the price.
Many have criticized the Ukrainian authorities for not having built a plant on small arms ammunition. arms, a problem is brewing on the NSVT machine guns, there are dozens of other issues, from the same sanitary armored vehicles or front-line transporters to digital communications at the battalion level and below. But here, too, there are nuances - the same consumables for small arms can be purchased in the former Warsaw Pact countries (which, judging by the numerous markings of Bulgaria, Romania and the Czech Republic on zinc and boxes, is being actively done), cars come here as part of international assistance, Soviet machine guns shipped through the Baltic countries. And who will sell us adjustable missiles with special warheads around Tornadoes 70? No one. Do we have the means to buy and has a political decision been made in the West to sell anti-ship and operational-tactical complexes here? Of course not. An honest answer in both cases will be - no.
Therefore, Turkish equipment is being purchased to build 300-mm missiles at Artem DAKH, tenders for the purchase of raw materials and materials have already flashed, there are reports of the start of the transfer of ammunition to the troops. The priority in fairly limited funding is quite obvious. And the news about the testing of the PTRK “Thunder” in a year, and the acceleration of work on the “Neptune”, and the beginning of the serial production of “Alder” are all links in one chain. Hiding the depth of the air defense system from the depths and rapidly changing positions, delivering strikes at stationary objects and infrastructure - fuel depot, emergency stations, communication centers, gearboxes, parks in RPM, surveillance radars, stop amphibious assault forces. All that will not allow the enemy to go to the operating room and fill us with impunity with their missiles. Do not expect a miracle - between R & D, development and series in the army for a few more years, and the cost of upgrading the "Tornado" and one volley will be quite high. This is not a miracle weapon of retaliation, but one of the elements of deterrence. But there is no other way for Ukraine for financial and political reasons.
Ground forces are consistently encouraging in terms of increased capabilities. In addition to transferring two tank battalions T-64 BV and T-72 in several modifications on Independence Day, there were also planned shipments - in the summer, the acquisition of equipment for tank brigades of the reserve corps was completed, apparently, in each operational command, as of 2017, there is a tank brigade in the state. Part of the "Bulatov" in an incomplete configuration from combat units was sent for revision - dynamic protection "Knife", engine, sights. Walkie-talkies are being actively put on (another delivery of "Harris" has arrived, sets are being purchased from the Turks). The 30th brigade was shipped BMP-2 instead of their "kopecks" in one of the units, the 81st brigade partially moved from the BTR-70 and surrogate MTLB to "kopecks", in March the BTR-3 were transferred, the delivery of the Kozak-2 armored vehicle began "In the Armed Forces of Ukraine - about 15 pieces were noticed in open sources, but judging by the fact that Praktika's workshops work in three shifts, their number in the White Book can be a pleasant surprise.
Launched by the Korsar ATGM and under the 80 missiles to it, they continue to actively buy Stugna and 500-600 RC-2С per year - for the current stage of the conflict, there is enough headroom, 60-70 launches per month were done in Syria at the peak of the war during the storming of Aleppo. The troops entered 400 vehicles - special in the format of tanks and tankers, repair shops, sanitary, passenger and cargo. Production of 23-mm guns was mastered, more than 250 30-mm guns were handed over, “Grads”, at least six “Hurricanes”, self-propelled guns in therapeutic quantities, cannon artillery from storage were transferred, there are several modernization programs, for example, the same “Bastion” or works over the "Hurricanes", is being implemented ASU "Obolon", GIS "Arta", "Nettle". The number of mortars produced from 120 to 60 mm is calculated in three-digit numbers.
And, of course, the main thing for today is not only technology. The same Russians in 2017 conducted about 100 battalion exercises for fifty of their brigades in the ground forces. In the APU - 107, this is in view of the fact that a third of the 20 + combined brigade is located in the ATO or in points of permanent dislocation, recovering from performing tasks on the battle line. In the assault troops on the 7 brigades - 23 BTU, and in the Navy for one coastal defense brigade and separate battalions - as many as 34. Even a person far from the army will consider something interesting here. For example, the second part of the reserve, not called up to the line units, but in “doubles”, which are built on the basis of the reserve body or out of state, because it is physically impossible to conduct four dozen battalion maneuvers in the same units of the Navy. In total, with territorial defense, separate groups and teams, mobilization of reserve officers and direct conscription to combat units in 2017, the training of the reserve component involved 80 thousands of people. An impressive figure against the background of recent mobilizations in 30-50 thousands.
Two complexes of the Mandat electronic warfare were put in, capable of clogging communications, interfering with decimeter radar, blocking the command channels of the homing heads of the missiles. The 20 kits of various tactical UAVs arrived, Polish patrol ammunition is being actively purchased, their production is localized in Chernigov, where they are trying to double the weight of the warhead. In general, the classical containment strategy works - separation of air defense and radar fields, creating a network of alternate aerodromes, emergency radar control stations and complexes to indicate the target of air defense, re-launch missiles, preparing a large-scale call for a backup component in the event of an exacerbation and resolving flow moments in parts of maintenance (repair regiments, automobile battalions, communications, bringing the subunits to their regular strength). Once again - only deterrence. The advantage of separation, depth, three lines of equipped engineering positions, minefields and air defense works only in active defense. And the enemy has regular units of the 20 Army and 1TA, powerful post-Soviet air defense, a considerable amount of barreled artillery and samovars, plus a long eastern border and an isthmus — work so that they quietly expire gold reserves under the sanctions and portrayed the miners without aircraft, and did not try to stir up aggravation, many more. And, in my opinion, they quite clearly formulated their policy in terms of not being allowed to finish the puppet "republics" by force of arms - there will be either a stalemate with bloody fuss, or another round, where the Cossacks are no longer on that side either, Igor Ivanovich and several BTGr.
Yes, we have never purchased a digital connection for three brigades at once, but now they buy and localize Turkish production at the same time. Yes, a couple of years ago in Ukraine 30-mm ammunition, mortar mines were not produced, there were no 60-mm mortars as a class, there was no VOG, 152-mm shells, and now small series are produced. Yes, we are one of a dozen countries on the planet that have a cycle to create radars capable of monitoring the air situation on 350 km in terms of interference. Ukraine is among the few countries capable of producing tank guided missiles, and the Ukrainian Armed Forces receive them for a couple of hundred a year. Began active development of thermobaric ammunition, disposable grenade launchers, the purchase and development of mobile equipment for electronic warfare against the UAV. International assistance continues to actively enter: small arms are sent to the brigade through the same Lithuania, from the Czech Republic 60-mm mines, grenade launchers are delivered from the USA, dozens of ambulances, radios, night vision devices are likely to be sold for corvettes under construction, there is data about emergency shipment radar. We started with two artillery brigades, and today there are nine of them, we started with two tank brigades, and today there are five of them. We had two boats in the Naval Forces of Ukraine on the 1450 km of the coast, and now there are eight of them. This is an unambiguous and noticeable movement forward.
But here it should be clearly understood that in the end it is not a panacea at all. And despite the dozens of positive calls (the introduction of a new combat ration, large-scale construction projects at landfills, plans for the construction of hostels for contract servicemen), we should not expect a quick solution to dozens of the most trivial problems in the army, even domestic ones. The fact that there are still not enough nets, thermal imagers, generators in a particular unit, and you are driving on an old Uazika, does not mean that we are all washed with eyes by the “Potemkin villages”. This only means that there are a lot of more pressing urgent issues for strategic deterrence of the enemy and urgent long-term projects. Reloading engines for rockets "Os", "Strel", "Tungusok", deep modernization of T-64 and T-80, modernization of fighter aircraft, which, moreover, is rapidly developing a resource.
We essentially do not fleet, there are not enough boats for physical control of the long coast, serious investments are needed in the SPSU and an engineering border fence in case of attempts of raids by SPN. Digital communications at the company level, nightlights, automobiles, automation of artillery and air defense, arsenal equipment, work on creating batteries for MANPADS, simulators - that’s hundreds of millions of dollars as of yesterday. We fired a couple of hundred rockets in 2014 for ATGMs. Excellent, and in 2024 they already need to carry out routine maintenance and possibly recharge. We have already purchased hundreds of sniper rifles. Not bad, but weather stations, rangefinders, hundreds of rounds per year for training, instructor training, infrastructure for them also appeared? The state was filled with Soviet infantry fighting vehicles in many units. And what about remotorization, walkie-talkies, combat modules for "cents" and "twos"? Thermal imagers and NVD came. And in the year their batteries lose capacity by a few percent - soon we will need to repair the dies and purchase batteries.
And so in everything. Growing opportunity means an immediate increase in spending. Do not wait for a miracle. The main problem for today is personnel training, but if you continue to carry out hundreds of battalion exercises a year, carry out coordination, field exits, call thousands of reservists in all formats from 80-100, from territorial battalions to retraining through the MES, then in a few years the situation gradually will change. Our efforts in terms of the military-industrial complex and the reformation of the Armed Forces of Ukraine are quite adequate to the severity of the conflict and the current budget, but the problem is not only that Ukraine is a poor country. When it was necessary to find 5 billion dollars in just a year for the reconstruction of stadiums, hotels, roads and staff training for Euro-2012 - money was found. For foot in the emergency mode. For a third of this amount, over the course of 10 years, it was easy to purchase a Gripenov regiment, an ARL board, a couple of mouths of modern tanks, or a couple of modernized battalions. The problem is that the majority of Ukrainians and then waited for the wizard in a blue helicopter, looking in the mouth of the storytellers, politicians, and now they are waiting for the Messiah, who tomorrow will rearm and train under three dozen brigades in a couple of years. It will not happen. It will be hard and painstaking work. In 2017, we made a significant step forward, but there is a lot more ahead. And it is necessary to clearly understand what we are doing and why, and what distance we have yet to come. To go the way that Poland or Finland have already passed - to forever break away from a dying empire.