Military reform in Russia through the eyes of a scout: "personnel defeat"
All this testifies that a hot time is coming for Russia, a time of testing. Therefore, you can probably experiment in various areas of the economy, in politics, and other areas of state activity, but in the field of defense, it is time to finish the experiments!“Of the few special forces that
various security agencies direct
to fight gangsters better than anyone
GRU special forces are showing themselves.
His performance is much better
than all others. "
(President of the Russian Federation V.V.Putin, 2002 year)
The words passed by the epigraph with the assessment given to the intelligence officers of the United Group of Forces (forces) and to me personally, as their leader, Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin and Dmitry Medvedev's instructions that: “... Anyone who doubts the course of the President of the Russian Federation has the right to appeal to me with a statement but this needs to be done openly ... ”, the existing combat and service experience, the memory of the fallen comrades, give me the right to express my opinion on how to reform the army and transfer it to a“ new look ”.
• Today, following historical the logic of development, Russia is approaching the inevitable moment when, for the sake of its safety and the safety of its citizens, it should turn into the Russian Empire, no matter how it is called. And the first step in this direction, of course, is the creation of the Customs Union and the Eurasian Union.
• However, doubtful experiments with the “new look” of the army will not allow it to achieve this only for the simple reason that most of them do not correspond to the stated results. Or the army will be able to prevent, and if necessary, repel any aggression, or there will be no Russia!
• In the beginning, allow a little about yourself. I, Major General Sergei Alekseevich Kanchukov, was born in the Soviet era in Ukraine. In 1975, after graduating from high school and a year of work as a teacher in high school, he voluntarily chose his life path, devoting him to serving and defending the Motherland. During the years of service he graduated from the Omsk Higher Combined Arms Military School twice named after M.V. Frunze. Military Academy. Mv Frunze had already been able to finish in between fights.
• Completed his military education in the forge of military personnel of Russia - the Military Academy of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation to them. K.E. Voroshilov. In the 2006 year, taking into account the specifics of the service, and the desire from a scientific point of view to deal with the problems of state protection, he defended his thesis on political science on the topic: "The PRC in internationalized local-regional conflicts of the 21st century".
• I was lucky in my life and service, it took place far from Moscow, was rich in most of its combat experience, wonderful people, and fits in three regions: the GDR (GSVG), the North Caucasus (North Caucasian Military District), Transbaikalia (Siberian Military District). During the years of service, almost all command posts in military intelligence passed, from the commander of the reconnaissance platoon of the 60th motorized rifle regiment (Ravensbrück) of the 16th Guards tank divisions of the 2nd Guards Tank Army to the head of intelligence - deputy chief of staff for intelligence of the Order of the Battle Red Banner of the Siberian Military District. Since October 2010, in accordance with the Decree of the President of the Russian Federation, I have been at the disposal and expect to be dismissed from the ranks of the RF Armed Forces.
• In the Armed Forces, he served for more than 35 calendar years (47 years in preferential terms). Of the 35 years, more than 12 years have passed in zones of armed conflict. I didn’t look for easy ways for my service, I didn’t refuse from my posts, didn’t yulil and didn’t cringe in front of my bosses, respected my subordinates, didn’t change my views and surnames, didn’t shy away from participation in hostilities, didn’t strive for awards and did not spare awards for subordinates.
• Over 3000 reconnaissance soldiers, in the course of only the second Chechen company, defending the integrity of our Motherland, according to my ideas, were awarded state and government awards, some of them were awarded the title Hero of Russia.
• The main incentive to sit at the desk was the materials published by 17 in November 2011 on various websites on the Internet and devoted to the speech of General of the Army N. Ye. Makarova in the Civic Chamber of the Russian Federation.
• Without going into the retelling of these materials, I’ll dwell on some of the theses voiced by the chief of the General Staff (NGS) in my speech, characterizing the current situation with the reform of the “new look” and try to determine their consequences for Russia.
• “After the collapse of the USSR, the possibility of local armed conflicts increased almost along the entire perimeter of the border. Under certain conditions, I do not exclude that local and regional armed conflicts may escalate into a large-scale war, including with the use of nuclear weapons", - said N. Makarov.
It turns out that the threats to Russia have dramatically increased even 20 years ago. Then why, with the beginning of the most cardinal reform of the army, called the “new look” and carried out since 2008, under the leadership of the current Minister of Defense A.E. SERDYUKOVA, with the direct participation of the NGSH, General of the Army N.E. MAKAROV, the first step was the reduction of its foundations - the officer corps and the elimination of the institute of ensigns. And the second step is to reduce the size of the army and eliminate the fundamentals of the types of armed forces - the divisional structure.
• These actions of reformers of the “new look” against the background of such statements look very strange. It turns out that at the beginning of his career, the NGSh “did not quite correctly” formulated and reported to the Minister of Defense and the Supreme Commander, the President of the Russian Federation the main and prospective challenges and threats for Russia, the timing of their occurrence, areas of local and regional conflicts, the composition, possibilities and nature of actions groups of troops likely opponents, the nature of the actions of terrorist groups?
• And most importantly, based on the place of Russia in the modern world and its role and place in the future, what conclusions did it report to the country's leadership in order to make correct and adequate decisions on responding to these challenges and threats, how should it be protected?
• At the same time, it is completely unclear to me why the possibility of armed conflicts near the borders with Russia suddenly increased, and even with the use of nuclear weapons, because before the start of the current military reform, the threat of nuclear war was evaluated quite differently?
• And who will be the opponent of Russia in a large-scale war? Of those threats that may arise in the near and medium term, only the USA is noted in the governing documents, and China is accepted by default. Is it possible that after the reform of the “new look” we were so elevated that we could no longer repel, without the use of nuclear weapons, the possible aggression from Georgia, the Baltic countries, Afghanistan, Turkey or Japan?
• It was strange to hear how Mr. Makarov indiscriminately accused the military leaders, who had previously stood at the helm of the Russian Armed Forces, that they could not do anything with the army and only they, the reformers of the “new look”, took up a large-scale military reform. Did Mr. Makarov really forget how much the plans of military reform were discussed at the time of the Minister of Defense Sergeyev and the Minister of Defense Ivanov, at the Chiefs of the General Staff Kvashnin and Baluyevsky?
• And it’s a sin to pretend that you don’t know the reason why the reform didn’t start earlier - the country simply had no money for it! And if Mr. Makarov with the money for the reform is “lucky” - then there is certainly no merit in this.
• It’s extremely controversial to argue that the NGS didn’t start the reform with the Minister of Defense, in 2014, the Russian army would be left without equipment and armaments: “Until 2015, the old plan, which envisaged development, would lead to and the Armed Forces in Russia would not have weapons in 2014, he said. - According to him, there would be less than 10% of serviceable and efficient hardware and weapons. ”
• The following question arises, and on what basis were these conclusions made? First, to praise oneself, and even without receiving any real positive result immodest. On the other hand, this statement raises a lot of questions. Who checked the technique and determined that it was in the 2014 year that it would only be 10% good, and not in the 2010 or 2011 year?
• Or maybe the equipment malfunction began to grow after the general reduction of repair units and the transfer of their functions to outside organizations during the reform of the “new look”? And where was the current NGSH, what position did he occupy? Didn’t he answer as a district commander for the serviceability of equipment and armament of the district, and as deputy defense minister for armaments, chief of the General Staff did not directly participate in developing rearmament programs, including before 2015? Is it such a deep forgetfulness or an attempt to justify yourself before a possible imminent resignation or direct shifting of responsibility to others?
• My attitude to the need to reform the army is that the reform of the army is necessary because it must be prepared for the imminent imminent impending trials. This will allow, from the point of view of national and global security, to use the last chance given to Russia to change the system, which is built on the principle of global military superiority of the United States and NATO to their military-political blackmail, and build a collective security system based on the balance of power principle.
True reform of the army, not a “new look”, will not drag Russia into a ruinous arms race with far from clear perspectives, but will bring all areas of the country's economy to a new level, will not allow it to fall completely on commodity rails, raise the well-being of citizens, instill confidence in them that there is no alternative to development.
• The reform of the army, and therefore of the country as a whole, must be carried out by taking drastic decisions. Expansion of the SCO and BRIC, creation of the Eurasian Union, integration with Europe, orientation of the economy to East and Southeast Asia, formation of a new financial and economic system, instead of relying on the Fed, will allow to stop using itself as a raw material appendage of the West and localize the Eurasian "arc of instability" . This decision will only benefit Russia and its citizens.
• Reformers of the “new look” of the army, based on the latest speeches of the NGS, do not have a clear understanding of current, medium-term and long-term threats, and therefore the plans to transfer the army to a “new look” do not correspond to the threats and further development of the international situation.
• The unrestrained flow of statements and comments of our military leaders, our reformers of the “new look” allows us to estimate with high confidence the true results of the reforms and the risks that follow from their implementation in the near future. Based on this, the termination of the experiment called “the new look of the army” is a vital necessity.
• My work is not intended for those who need, in the words of Stolypin, “great upheavals, not great Russia.” It is designed to calmly analyze and review the progress of the existing reform from a critical point of view, in the words of the former US Army Chief of Staff, General Sullivan: "disagreement is not disrespect."
• All reforms begin, and the army is no exception - with an analysis of the situation in which these actions will take place, with an analysis of political, economic, and in our case, military threats to a country that is starting to reform its foundations of existence. As D.O.Rogozin said recently at a meeting, “in the modern world, only force is respected,” and the army is the basis of the strength of the Russian State.
• In this rapidly changing world, where the time of wars and revolutions swept the planet, where one crisis, not yet completed, generates a second, where some heads of states see a way out of the situation only in launching a large-scale war, for Russia there is almost no time left to strengthen its defenses. And this, despite the fact that we constantly strive to show our partners our commitment to peace and the desire to integrate into the international economic and political space.
• Instability in the world is growing. Obviously, the US is striving to ensure its priority positions in all key regions of the world, under the slogan of ensuring peace and prosperity throughout the world. And the main mechanism for the implementation of these plans is brute military force. The United States has long ceased to bother itself with the norms of international law and sovereignty, at its own discretion appointing its enemies, and authorizing themselves to their destruction.
• This US policy is a direct threat to Russia and its interests. Today, the US is engaged in a cold war with China. More precisely the war for resources. Thus, the US-sponsored “revolution” in Libya deprived China of the oil it received from the east of Libya. Currently, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA), more than 85 million barrels of oil are consumed daily in the world. By 2030, this figure will grow to 113 million barrels, and the total global reserves of oil are estimated at 13 - 15 trillion. barrels, but the less profitable ones are less than 10%.
• China, to maintain its development rate at 9-10% and increase its GDP by four times by 2021, it is necessary to increase the demand for oil for 25 - 30% annually. According to a number of experts, the proven oil reserves in China will allow it to produce no more than 2020 million tons by the 200 year, which will create a shortage of oil at the level of 60-65%.
• The next blow by the United States and NATO in the form of combating terrorism and the spread of “color revolutions” can be expected in Angola and Nigeria, along with Libya supplying oil to China, and thus, in the conditions of a sharp increase in the oil deficit, provoke the transfer of China’s competitive struggle to confrontation in order to protect their national interests. And the object of this confrontation may be a weakening, primarily militarily, but Russia rich in resources necessary for China.
• There is a high probability of aggravation of the situation in the Crimea and the North Caucasus, where the intervention of Turkey is becoming more and more obvious. Tension between Azerbaijan and Armenia is growing. It does not leave plans to return the lost lands of Georgia.
• There is Japan, which does not stop its attempts to resolve issues with the islands, reviewing the results of the Great Patriotic War. The main goal of Japan is to expand its own “living space” necessary for the resource provision of the economy.
• And in the wake of growing Asian nationalism, Beijing and Tokyo may make a geopolitical compromise and, against the will of Washington, will begin to build an “eastern house” together. To maintain these aspirations, Tokyo has the Japanese Armed Forces, in saturation with modern types of weapons and military equipment, not inferior to any army in the world. Moreover, having a sufficient supply of plutonium (up to 60 tons), as well as financial, technological and technical capabilities, Japan is capable of becoming a nuclear power in a short time, which will enhance its military potential necessary for leadership in the APR.
All this testifies that a hot time is coming for Russia, a time of testing. Therefore, you can probably experiment in various areas of the economy, in politics, and other areas of state activity, but in the field of defense, it is time to finish the experiments! We have no time for them.
The speed of development of an unfavorable military-political situation so far is clearly ahead of the speed of modernization of our Armed Forces, and the ongoing reform so far only hinders this modernization.
• Therefore, to correct the damage from such a reform that is not visible at first glance and not being on the surface is impossible in the short term, and this entails a threat to the peaceful coexistence of Russia in the current current situation, the growing threat of a large-scale war advancing closer and closer to our borders .
• The military doctrine of the Russian Federation (Decree No. 146 dated 5.02.2010 g) was also developed for a certain time, and it is the main document of strategic planning. It reveals the system of officially adopted views in the state on preparations for armed defense and armed defense of the Russian Federation.
• The Military Doctrine determined that Russia did not intend and would not intend to use nuclear weapons in the first strike. It contains one important precondition for the realization of this possibility: it can only happen in response and only in the case of aggression against Russia and (or) its allies with the use of nuclear and other types of weapons of mass destruction, as well as in the case of aggression with the use of conventional weapons, “When the very existence of the state is threatened”.
• It is “in response”. Therefore, there will be no aggression, there will be no answer, including a nuclear one. Moscow, as follows from the new military-strategic installation, does not intend to use nuclear weapons in regional or local conflicts at all. The doctrine determined that the military dangers against Russia are amplified and a distinction is made between external and internal military dangers and military threats. The main approaches to the construction of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation are defined.
So why NGSH Makarov, knowing these provisions of the doctrine, makes some sensational statements about the use of nuclear weapons by Russia? What and for whom are they aimed?
• The threats to Russia are multifaceted, but the use of nuclear weapons can only be conditional on the US or Chinese aggression against Russia. And the application itself is the prerogative of the President of the Russian Federation. The remaining challenges and threats emanating from other sources should be localized by general-purpose forces. And no excuses or references to the inability to solve these issues with conventional weapons should be considered.
• The disadvantage of the Military Doctrine of the Russian Federation is the lack of a concept of danger to Russia in the list of external military hazards, if a foreign state gains advantages over its armed forces in conventional weapons, which will greatly affect the development of military threats and the country's inadequacy to them to react. Reformers do not take into account what is in the doctrine, and what is not, and even more so will not take into account.
• Thus, based on the content of the Military Doctrine of the Russian Federation, the reformers of the “new look” needed to study it carefully, draw up planning and proceed to implementation. In August 2009, a refined reform program appeared, known as the “New Face” of the Russian Armed Forces. So why do reformers do everything in reverse order and there are innumerable examples of this. First, they are reducing or eliminating, trying to sum up various rationales for this, and then they are taken for deployment, but qualitatively an order of magnitude lower than what was eliminated ...
• Responding to questions from participants in a meeting of the Public Chamber, Chief of the General Staff Nikolai Makarov “uncovered military secrets”: he said that the mobilization resource of the Russian army now amounts to 700 thousand people, or a hundred brigades. And its basis consists of soldiers-conscripts.
In this statement of the NGSh, if the press leads it not in a distorted form, there is also a lack of knowledge of the fundamentals of military science, on the one hand, and a military crime, on the other.
• How can the mobilization resource of Russia, estimated at 5-10 million, according to the most modest calculations, be combined into one heap with mobilization readiness — the ability and capability of troops to be quickly deployed according to the mobilization plan and transition to wartime states? Is it not because, precisely at the suggestion of Mr. Makarov, this mobilization readiness of our Armed Forces was virtually destroyed.
• As part of the “new look”, all the cropped and reduced parts and formations intended for the rapid deployment of the second and third division reserve divisions were eliminated by obtaining mobilization resources. Instead of these parts and formations, which, in the event of a military threat, could be deployed in an almost million-strong grouping, two dozens of bases for storing equipment and weapons were created, which, at best, after a long formation from scratch (and there are no soldiers, no officers), it will be possible to deploy in brigades with a total of one hundred - one hundred fifty thousand people, which is nothing for a large-scale war!
• Unlike reformers of the Russian army, US Secretary of Defense Leon Panetta, commenting on the upcoming changes in his department related to a decrease in the country's military budget by almost 500 billion dollars over the next ten years and a change in the ratio between reservists and active military personnel, notes that after the adoption of a new military budget, the US army will be able to quickly mobilize the necessary forces in case of a threat to US security.
Such a cold-blooded destruction of the mobilization readiness of a country cannot be called anything other than a war crime! In fact, in the case of any large-scale military conflict, these decisions condemn Russia to a critical lag in the mobilization deployment and, as a result, to the country's unpreparedness for war.
And we will have to pay for this unpreparedness with enormous human sacrifices. This is what the country leads to the reform of the “new look”. But will Russia remain after this? Who will her people be?
• At the same time, it is not at all clear what relation the soldiers “conscripts” have to the mobilization resource? In fact, if Mr. General Makarov has forgotten, I would like to remind him that as long as a soldier serves military service, he can in no way be considered a “mobilization resource.” Or did the NGSh here, without much straining before civilians, confused the concepts? And announced the staffing of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation conscripts? But in this case, the situation is even more dramatic.
• It turns out that, taking into account the remaining officers, less subject to dismissal, including in connection with the so-called “rotation”, and the absence of contract servicemen in the troops, who were dismissed earlier in accordance with the decision of the Minister of Defense and the Chief of the General Staff, falls short of 80%.
• And this means that today the staffing of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation has fallen to 73-75% of the notorious 1 million military personnel. The number that the reformers themselves have called all these years "scientifically based" and "necessary" for the reliable defense of the country. As a result, the entire organizational structure is bursting at the seams.
• Now, in order to somehow wriggle out of a delicate situation and prove that everything is under control, the reformers urgently invent new staffs of brigades, some “mobilization” brigades deployed on 60-70% of wartime states. At the same time, according to all manuals and documents, the part completed with less than 90% is considered non-combat-ready.
• The combat-ready ones, that is, equipped with 100%, today are less than a third of the “new-look” brigades. Although two years ago, taking up the reform as its goal, Mr. Makarov declared the existence of only 100% of the completed units in the army.
... Whether we want it or not, we are already involved in this war of interests of the superpowers. At least because of the presence of huge reserves of natural resources that are concentrated on our territory. As Napoleon said: "Geography is a sentence."
• Russia, even after the collapse of the USSR, being in the first place in the main resource that is not renewable at this stage of the world’s development, the soil resource, needs no one else to reliably protect its borders. And only the army is able to ensure in the modern world the sovereignty of the country, the integrity of the state, the protection of political and economic interests of both the state and the individual.
• After the exercises “Vostok-2010”, in which I had the opportunity to participate at the last time, I thought that I would not see more distress than what I saw at these exercises. What greater lack of professionalism, and deliberate misleading of the military-political leadership of the country about the state of the Russian Armed Forces, their combat readiness and ability to solve combat missions in modern conditions will not be.
• But the results of the Center-2011 exercise, those episodes covered by the press and, in particular, the Zvezda TV Company, exceeded all my expectations, and the publication of the NGS General of the Army N.E. Makarov about the future fate of the Main Intelligence Directorate of the General Staff of the RF Armed Forces (GRU), its disbandment, put an end to these doubts.
The more the “new look” of the Russian Armed Forces emerges, the more stable is the opinion that General Staff N.Y. Makarov was right when speaking before the Public Chamber of the Russian Federation — we cannot avoid military aggression in the near future. But this aggression will be possible because the likely enemy, unlike the Russian top political leadership, who is not trying to figure out and understand the real state of their Armed Forces, quite realistically assesses the readiness of the Russian army, its ability to adequately solve the tasks of protecting the state.
• After all, we live in a complex world that is constantly, for all the efforts of most countries of the world community, changing for the worse. Threats are constantly being modernized and growing, only becoming more complex and becoming multifaceted. And the struggle for coexistence in this world is only intensifying, gaining new directions, and intensifying not only at the level of terrorism, but above all at the global level. To respond to these threats, only nuclear forces (SNF) in the country's arsenal are no longer enough. We need highly mobile forces of a general, and, above all, special purpose, aviation and air defense, you need a fleet, you need high-tech modern weapons!
• But even more important is the understanding of threats, their types, directions and ways of development. It is necessary to understand how to locate these threats from a military point of view, if political and economic leverage is not enough. We need an understanding of the prospects for the development of warfare, ways and means of building the Russian Armed Forces, developing the military-industrial complex, military science and the country as a whole.
• And this understanding is just in the current military reformers and no. How to interpret the words of General Makarov, who, as an achievement of reform, stated that within the framework of the reform, "the reduction of the headquarters of the Ministry of Defense was made. In recent years, it has decreased by more than three times - from thousands of 51s to thousands of 13,4s, the Chief of the General Staff said. “And we understand that this is not yet the limit,” he said, stressing that “at the same time, the level of command and control of the troops had not decreased at all.”
• But who checked the capacity of the Ministry of Defense and its central apparatus for the “level of command and control”? No strategic exercises of this level have been held for a very long time. Then how to determine the level of command and control of troops? From a technical point of view, it is estimated by the availability of means and channels of communication, and here, the ability to control troops could remain at the same level. But the main criterion has always been and remains the presence of trained and trained officers to solve specific tasks.
• In tsarist Russia, an officer of the general staff was supposed to unlearn at the Academy of the General Staff. In Soviet times, to become an officer of the General Staff, you had to take at least two or three positions at headquarters, and in the future, for career growth, you also need to be trained at the Academy of the General Staff or WACGSH. Now the Academy of the General Staff is practically closed to the officers of the General Staff, and the highest Officer Courses are generally removed from the “new look”.
As a result, today the General Headquarters is more than 80% staffed with officers in the rank of Major - Lieutenant Colonel, at best, with “battalion” thinking - the initial level of military education, which simply does not allow to work at the level of the General Staff responsible for the functioning of all Armed Forces generally. As a result, the level of headquarters culture has drastically dropped in two years.
• Preparation and implementation of the most important decisions abound with gross errors and shortcomings. At the same time, the General Staff officers in the troops “rotated” over the years mainly offered secondary positions in the battalion-brigade link, because the “rotation” by the current military leadership is organized so that the officer diminishes not in the equal and free position waiting for him, and at the disposal of the command of a particular direction for the replacement of any vacant and suitable for the level of the post, but there are simply no such people there!
• And this is called an “increased level of command and control”? In my opinion, it is more correct to call it a “personnel pogrom,” a criminal striving to get rid of trained officers by any means, because in 90% of cases such a criminal rotation leads to the early dismissal of unique specialists. And all the complaints about the fact that someone there “snickered” and serves from “lieutenant to colonel in one place” can only speak about the very low professionalism of people, these reasons are stated.
• As a military leader, I can say that in order for my intelligence agency to become an efficiently working professional team, it took me three years of hard training and officer training. And in order for it to become the best in the Russian Armed Forces, another three years of constant introduction of the most advanced techniques and technologies in the training of officers and troops, as many officials can confirm, including the NGSh Makarov himself. If, then, there existed the notorious mandatory “rotation”, I am afraid that I would never have been able to create an effectively working team.
• I think that for the training of officers of the General Staff these deadlines undoubtedly increase at least twice. Therefore, the “mechanical” reduction in the number of military authorities four times, carried out in fact over a year and a half and without any scientific substantiation, without testing the capabilities of the new structures, multiplied by the senseless “rotation”, during which the remaining professionals were squeezed out of the central apparatus. "Merit" and "effective military reform" can only be based on the fact that no one will catch the "reformer" on lies.
• And so that no one has any doubts, the favorite method is used to introduce the military-political leadership of the country - the OPINION, perfectly mastered by the current military leadership in all its manifestations. It is almost impossible to distinguish truth from fiction without mastering military science and not owning the art of war, and this is a very fine line, like a razor blade.
• That is why all the major military exercises of recent years have become a continuous chain of pretentiousness and fraud. Take, for example, the teachings Center-2011. Who can clearly explain why the armed formations with the size and organization of the Iranian ground forces turned out to be a likely opponent at these exercises? At the same time, the question of why Iran should attack the CIS countries remained unanswered and clarified. I would like to clarify with Mr. Makarov, what did he become aware of the "Iranian threat", that we urgently needed to work out military actions against Iran at the exercises?
• Those who prepared the teachings know the answer to this question well. The capabilities of the fire brigades of the “new appearance” brigades, as well as the training of the personnel of these brigades, are so weak that they can only fight effectively with armies such as Iranian. When choosing opponents of more modern armies, the results of exercises become depressing. Therefore, when planning the exercises “Center-2011”, it was decided to no longer shame, and immediately assign themselves an enemy with whom it is easy to cope. This is what is called "window dressing"!
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