Bridgeheads of alienation
The countries of the Middle East remain unstable, hopes for ending conflicts from the Horn of Africa and the Sahel to Afghanistan and Pakistan are illusory, but events in Syria are of paramount importance for the entire region. RF Armed Forces of the Russian Federation stopped the destruction of this state and the overthrow of Bashar Assad at the last moment. However, attempts by the organizers of the war in Syria - regional powers and their "support groups" in the person of the United States and EU leaders - to bring down the legitimate regime continue.
The difficult internal situation and the unwillingness of Moscow to repeat the mistakes of the war in Afghanistan led to an equilibrium in the SAR, which all parties to the conflict are trying to change in their favor. Russia has to combine military and diplomatic methods of influence on the situation. The latest achievement was the agreement on the creation of de-escalation zones. Consider the current situation in Syria and the prospects for its development, based on the materials of experts IBI A. Kuznetsova and Y. Shcheglovina.
Diplomacy Games
The process of creating de-escalation zones in Syria is a golden chance for the opposition to strengthen its presence in the country. This was announced by the Supreme Coordinator of the Opposition High Negotiating Committee (HCP) R. Hijab in an interview with the Al-Hayat newspaper. The head of the All-Union Communist Party called on the opposition factions to create a united political, civil and military front that will be able to replace the current regime. He, the former prime minister of Syria, who fled to Jordan in 2012, argues that the process of post-war reconstruction in Syria cannot be started while Bashar Assad is in power. At the same time Hijab admitted that the Syrian opposition is in the worst condition.
These statements traced not only the problems of the opposition and the prospects of the Communist Party of the Soviet Union, created for the political representation of the opponents of the Assad regime in the Riyadh negotiations in Geneva, which it controls and is completely off the ground. This is what dictates the call of the Hijab to "return to Syria." Although no one is waiting for him there, and field commanders will not cede authority. There is a sharp gap between the "technocratic secular" wing of the opposition and the leaders of local gangs. The contract is possible only with those for whom there is military force. The VKP does not have it in Syria.
Why talk to the CPSU? There are two reasons: maintaining the status of the UN as a universal tool for solving crises and attempts to detach the secular part of the opposition from the radical jihadist, doomed to failure due to the fact that those who wanted to move away from the Islamists, and the rest serve them. Discussing draft constitution or de-escalation zones with the VKP is useless. It remains to continue the game in Geneva, raising not only the status of the United Nations, but also the VKP, or to set a condition for participation in this process by the WCP’s refusal to leave Assad as the starting point for the start of negotiations. "Constructive" from the Communist Party of the Nothing to wait, it does not want Saudi Arabia. A pause could have an effect, because the BCP must be present at international venues.
Moscow has taken the path of creating an Astana format for solving specific problems “on the ground” with the forces really responsible for the “areas of responsibility”. There are problems there too. Ankara does not want to reveal the cards about the extent of its influence on the militants: someone is kept in reserve, others began to show obstinacy, as part of the military wing of “Ahrar ash-Sham”. As for the opposition, it suffered a series of military defeats and with the idea of overthrowing Assad by force broke up. Friction among KSA sponsors - Turkey (and Qatar behind it) and the struggle for the right of political and military domination in zones, primarily in Idlib, began. This buries the dreams of unified military and political institutions of the opposition.
Procrastination in Cancer
For a long time, Middle Eastern analysts discussed when the storming of the Syrian “capital” of the IG (banned in the Russian Federation) by the forces of the local formations controlled by the Americans would begin (and begin). And the process has begun. Armed coalition "Forces of Democratic Syria" (VTS) entered Rakka from the east (520 kilometers from Damascus). This was reported by France Press, referring to the VTS command. "Our forces entered the Meshleb quarter in the east of the city," the commander of Kurdish fighters in the region, R. Felat, told the agency. This was preceded by picks between Ankara and Washington: the first one expressed “concern” with the operation that had begun, the second one denied everything. Prior to this, the Kurds, who form the basis of VTS, surrounded the city with dubious success from the north, east and west. It took the coalition forces seven months to do this, despite the fact that the million Mosul in Iraq has been taking eight months already. And this fact testifies to the insufficient combat potential of the attackers.
The transfer of heavy military equipment to the VTS and Iraqi Kurdistan fighters, which began two months ago, is not accidental. The Americans for a long time refrained from such a step due to the sharp reaction of Ankara. The assurances of the United States that the equipment will be removed immediately after the capture of Raqqah did not reassure anyone in Turkey. This is understandable, since nothing will be displayed due to the logic of warfare. It is not enough to take the city and region, it is necessary to control it. To do this, we need heavy equipment, artillery and the constant presence of the American military contingent, which would guarantee the VTS from military pressure from both Turkey and its controlled opposition groups and supporters of the IG, who are able to knock out Kurdish troops from almost all the positions they currently occupy. An alternative can only be the repetition of the Sinjar variant in Iraq, when the Kurds, before the threat of Turkish invasion of the area, came to Baghdad with a request to occupy a part of the regions, creating a “sanitary cordon”.
We doubt that Washington likes this scenario. From here one way out: continue to keep your own grouping here. The Americans are faced with a total rejection of the Arab population of any gain in the Kurdish presence in northern Syria. This is a common leitmotif for Arabs regardless of their ideological preferences. And the first manifestations of this attitude of American intelligence began to fix - according to her, propaganda of the ISIS actively uses the “Kurdish factor” and this is bearing fruit: the number of radical supporters is growing at the expense of the local Arab population. This is an “aggravated” reason during the racca assault. In the military schools of Syria they say: the next war after the Islamists will be with the Kurds. As for the Islamists and the pro-Turkish opposition, there is no need to talk about their attitude towards the Kurds. Confident control of the territory is possible if more than 70 percent of the population is loyal. In the north of Syria, the number of percent-loyal percent to 70 is underdeveloped and there are two annoying factors: the presence of the US military and the Kurdish expansion. Plus, the negative-aggressive attitude towards this of Turkey, which creates the basis for the start of hostilities and armed provocations against Kurdish troops.
According to American intelligence, there are four to five thousand militants of ISIS in Rakka, which is comparable to the garrison of Mosul before the start of his assault. Unlike the latter, Rakka is more compact, which means that the line of defense is not so stretched. The open southern corridor allows you to "invite" supporters of the IG and the population to the exit. So far this option has been suppressed by the Russian HQ, which has reduced the flow of refugees. But through the open south, ammunition can be delivered and reinforcements approach. When dragging out the assault, the Americans will be forced to divert their forces to block the southern corridor. The assault will be slowed down by mine traps. The US command will have to attract their own sappers, since the VTS does not have them. American special forces will act on the front line, while to adjust the fire. Everything testifies that the assault on Rakka will be just as problematic as Mosul. If, of course, the attackers do not agree with the IG supporters, firing them without a fight from the south to Palmyra and Deir ez-Zor.
“Shield of the Euphrates” in Jordan
The de-escalation zones include Idlib, parts of the provinces of Aleppo, Latakia and Hama, a region north of Homs, as well as East Guta, Dera'a and Quneitra. The agreement proposes to prohibit military activity here, including air flights. The document is designed for six months and can be automatically extended for the same period. In this case, the Russian military has repeatedly stated that the fight against the groups of the IG and Dzhebhat an Nusra will continue. But this implies the raids of government troops in such zones and the bombing of Islamist positions. Americans begin to consider them as “no-fly security zones”.
Thus, a representative of the Syrian Armed Forces Command reported on June 5 about the attack of a coalition air force led by the United States on an army position in the Esh-Shahim area on the highway to the border town of Al-Tanf. May 18 Western coalition air forces have already attacked one of the positions of the Syrian army on the highway in Al-Tanf. According to the Pentagon, the strikes were carried out on a convoy of government forces approaching the coalition military base in Al-Tanf, where an opposition training camp was set up.
It follows: in the territory of de-escalation, security zones for US-loyal forces will be created, including with Russian assistance. Moscow, Tehran and Damascus do not have an algorithm to counter such practices. While the Americans are operating in southern Syria, there is no guarantee that this experience will not be distributed. When creating such a zone on the Syrian-Jordanian border, it is reasonable to repeat it in other areas. Time will pass, and from these bridgeheads, the active expansion of the armed opposition to other parts of the country will begin. The fight against jihadists in de-escalation zones is possible for the Russian Aerospace Forces. Caliber missiles are preferable to use in the south, because unlike aviation This is a non-contact way of fighting. In other cases, the use of ground and air forces where the possibility of a direct collision with the Americans is minimal is justified.
The decision to create a security zone along the entire perimeter of the Jordanian-Syrian border was made by the Americans and their Jordanian allies, the question is only in the timing of the project. Most likely it will start after the end of Ramadan, and the active phase may begin in the fall. To support this operation, the United States and Great Britain have already transferred reserves to Jordan from Iraq. Polish and Canadian troops were redeployed to Iraq to replace them. In Jordan, deployed about 100 helicopters Bundeswehr. Soon there will leave the remnants of the German contingent from the Turkish base "Incirlik". The end of their relocation will also serve as an indicator of the beginning of the active phase of the coalition operation. And we are talking about the creation of a zone that does not coincide with the projects of de-escalation zones in the area.
During the visit of Donald Trump to Saudi Arabia, in secret consultations with the King of Jordan Abdullah II 21, the last details of creating an “exclusion zone” around the perimeter of the Jordan-Syrian border were discussed. The plan of military intervention by the Jordanians to Syria was detailed and approved as part of the overall operation of the Western coalition forces. Experts argue that the main idea of the Americans here is to prevent the creation of a pro-Iranian arc from Tehran to Beirut. Provision is made for clearing the zone of the forces of the Syrian Shiite militia prepared by the IRGC with minimization of Iranian influence. Riyadh is aware and involved in the financing of the plan.
The action plan of the Jordanian forces was prepared for the meeting in Riyadh by the Chief of the General Staff M. Freihat and the head of the General Intelligence (EAR) Administration of Jordan I. al-Jundi. They are well aware of the situation in the area of the Syrian-Jordanian border, as they supervised this area. The joint plan envisages the transfer of two battalions of Jordanian special forces, they will be involved in the upcoming operation to support the Syrian opposition, who have been trained the last two years at two bases near the Syrian border and on the basis of the royal college of special forces near Amman. Jordan’s RBM Inspectorate showed that success requires training more fighters. It is envisaged that the Jordanian special forces together with the RBM operatives after the transfer to the border area will begin to train several hundred oppositionists. This may affect the timing of the start of the operation, which is planned to be carried out by the three main rebel groups: the Free Syrian Army, the Omari Brigades and the Revolutionary Army Commandos (RCA). Their role is to create the appearance of the Syrian nature of the operation, to hide the participation of foreigners. In addition, the OPD operatives plan to bring to the cause and Druze. Supply channels are used for this. weapons from Israel, made possible by the mediation of the United States about two months ago. It is possible the direction of the Israeli Druze military advisers to the conflict zone.
Revitalization at the border
More than a million Syrians live in the de-escalation zone that includes Idlib province and its bordering regions - northeastern Lattakia, western Aleppo and northern Hama. It is controlled by troops in 14,5 thousands of people. Zones in the northern province of Homs (180 thousand inhabitants) with the cities of Al-Rastan and Tel-Bis and close areas are controlled by groups of up to three thousand people. In the area of Eastern Guta (690 thousand inhabitants) there are about nine thousand militants. The zone in the south of Syria in the border regions of Jordan with the provinces of Deraa and Kuneitra (up to 800 thousand inhabitants) is controlled by units of the “Southern Front” numbering up to 15 thousand people.
The greatest concern is caused by events in the eastern and northeastern regions of Syria, in the provinces of Racca and Deir ez-Zor. These strategic regions of Damascus are strategic for the SAR to communicate with Iraq and Iran and the continuity of the Tehran-Baghdad-Damascus-Beirut axis. In the province of Rakka, there are oil and gas fields and agricultural land developed in the second half of the twentieth century after the construction of the Euphrates Dam. The territory of the province of Deir ez-Zor is mostly desert, but there are rich oil fields. The city of Deir ez-Zor is held by the garrison of the Syrian Arab army, but the province is under the control of the IS. Most of the food is delivered to the besieged city by air.
Most of the Syrian-Iraqi border is controlled by the Kurds from the "Forces of Democratic Syria" (SDS) or the IS militants. There is a clear trend towards the inclusion of the entire province of Raqqa into the sphere of Kurdish influence. To the south, the buffer role between Syria and Iraq is assigned to Jadan-sponsored Assad opponents — moderate groups and the New Syrian Army. According to the Lebanese newspaper Al-Akhbar, moderate opposition groups in Dera'a province (Jaish al-Ashair, Farik al-haqq and Farik al-Shabab al-Sunna) are now arming and training in camps in the Jordanian territory. Amman’s plans, according to the newspaper, include intervention in the south of Syria, according to the type of operation “Euphrates Shield” undertaken by Turkey last year.
The main border points between Iraq and Syria are the cities of Abu-Kamal in the province of Deir ez-Zor and At-Tanf located to the south at the junction of the borders of Syria, Jordan and Iraq. Washington seeks to prevent government forces from gaining control over them. The Iranians, in whose interests the Asad government of Tatarstan is firmly in control of the Syrian-Iraqi border, are taking countermeasures — establishing cooperation between the Syrian military and the Iraqi Shiite forces “Hashed al-Shaabi” to control the border.
The goal of the Mohammed Rasullah operation of Iraqi Shiites is not only to establish control over the Iraqi-Syrian border, but also to create a corridor from Iraq to Syria. It involves militants from the Badr Brigade, known for their good military training. The deputy commander of “Hashad ash-Shaabi” A. Ali Mukhandis said that his troops must completely eradicate the Islamists from the IS, therefore, anti-terrorist operations will be carried out not only in Iraq, but also in Syria. At the same time, one of the Shiite field commanders said in an interview with the Lebanese newspaper Al-Akhbar that Hashd al-Shaabi would fight in Syria not only against ISI terrorists, but, if necessary, against the Americans.
It is difficult to say to what extent this statement of the Shiite commander, who has preserved incognito, corresponds to reality. In any case, the Iranians, if necessary, can use not only the reserves in Syria, but also the units of General K. Suleymani stationed in Iraq, which is a serious threat to the Americans at the time of the storming of Mosul. Even if we forget that Baghdad is not inclined to walk in the wake of KSA in an attempt to cut the "Shiite crescent" by the hands of the United States and Jordan. Not to mention the partners and allies of Iran in Yemen, Afghanistan and the Gulf monarchies, split by the crisis around Qatar. This suggests major adjustments to the US plans in Syria in the near future.
The difficult internal situation and the unwillingness of Moscow to repeat the mistakes of the war in Afghanistan led to an equilibrium in the SAR, which all parties to the conflict are trying to change in their favor. Russia has to combine military and diplomatic methods of influence on the situation. The latest achievement was the agreement on the creation of de-escalation zones. Consider the current situation in Syria and the prospects for its development, based on the materials of experts IBI A. Kuznetsova and Y. Shcheglovina.
Diplomacy Games
The process of creating de-escalation zones in Syria is a golden chance for the opposition to strengthen its presence in the country. This was announced by the Supreme Coordinator of the Opposition High Negotiating Committee (HCP) R. Hijab in an interview with the Al-Hayat newspaper. The head of the All-Union Communist Party called on the opposition factions to create a united political, civil and military front that will be able to replace the current regime. He, the former prime minister of Syria, who fled to Jordan in 2012, argues that the process of post-war reconstruction in Syria cannot be started while Bashar Assad is in power. At the same time Hijab admitted that the Syrian opposition is in the worst condition.
These statements traced not only the problems of the opposition and the prospects of the Communist Party of the Soviet Union, created for the political representation of the opponents of the Assad regime in the Riyadh negotiations in Geneva, which it controls and is completely off the ground. This is what dictates the call of the Hijab to "return to Syria." Although no one is waiting for him there, and field commanders will not cede authority. There is a sharp gap between the "technocratic secular" wing of the opposition and the leaders of local gangs. The contract is possible only with those for whom there is military force. The VKP does not have it in Syria.
Why talk to the CPSU? There are two reasons: maintaining the status of the UN as a universal tool for solving crises and attempts to detach the secular part of the opposition from the radical jihadist, doomed to failure due to the fact that those who wanted to move away from the Islamists, and the rest serve them. Discussing draft constitution or de-escalation zones with the VKP is useless. It remains to continue the game in Geneva, raising not only the status of the United Nations, but also the VKP, or to set a condition for participation in this process by the WCP’s refusal to leave Assad as the starting point for the start of negotiations. "Constructive" from the Communist Party of the Nothing to wait, it does not want Saudi Arabia. A pause could have an effect, because the BCP must be present at international venues.
Moscow has taken the path of creating an Astana format for solving specific problems “on the ground” with the forces really responsible for the “areas of responsibility”. There are problems there too. Ankara does not want to reveal the cards about the extent of its influence on the militants: someone is kept in reserve, others began to show obstinacy, as part of the military wing of “Ahrar ash-Sham”. As for the opposition, it suffered a series of military defeats and with the idea of overthrowing Assad by force broke up. Friction among KSA sponsors - Turkey (and Qatar behind it) and the struggle for the right of political and military domination in zones, primarily in Idlib, began. This buries the dreams of unified military and political institutions of the opposition.
Procrastination in Cancer
For a long time, Middle Eastern analysts discussed when the storming of the Syrian “capital” of the IG (banned in the Russian Federation) by the forces of the local formations controlled by the Americans would begin (and begin). And the process has begun. Armed coalition "Forces of Democratic Syria" (VTS) entered Rakka from the east (520 kilometers from Damascus). This was reported by France Press, referring to the VTS command. "Our forces entered the Meshleb quarter in the east of the city," the commander of Kurdish fighters in the region, R. Felat, told the agency. This was preceded by picks between Ankara and Washington: the first one expressed “concern” with the operation that had begun, the second one denied everything. Prior to this, the Kurds, who form the basis of VTS, surrounded the city with dubious success from the north, east and west. It took the coalition forces seven months to do this, despite the fact that the million Mosul in Iraq has been taking eight months already. And this fact testifies to the insufficient combat potential of the attackers.
The transfer of heavy military equipment to the VTS and Iraqi Kurdistan fighters, which began two months ago, is not accidental. The Americans for a long time refrained from such a step due to the sharp reaction of Ankara. The assurances of the United States that the equipment will be removed immediately after the capture of Raqqah did not reassure anyone in Turkey. This is understandable, since nothing will be displayed due to the logic of warfare. It is not enough to take the city and region, it is necessary to control it. To do this, we need heavy equipment, artillery and the constant presence of the American military contingent, which would guarantee the VTS from military pressure from both Turkey and its controlled opposition groups and supporters of the IG, who are able to knock out Kurdish troops from almost all the positions they currently occupy. An alternative can only be the repetition of the Sinjar variant in Iraq, when the Kurds, before the threat of Turkish invasion of the area, came to Baghdad with a request to occupy a part of the regions, creating a “sanitary cordon”.We doubt that Washington likes this scenario. From here one way out: continue to keep your own grouping here. The Americans are faced with a total rejection of the Arab population of any gain in the Kurdish presence in northern Syria. This is a common leitmotif for Arabs regardless of their ideological preferences. And the first manifestations of this attitude of American intelligence began to fix - according to her, propaganda of the ISIS actively uses the “Kurdish factor” and this is bearing fruit: the number of radical supporters is growing at the expense of the local Arab population. This is an “aggravated” reason during the racca assault. In the military schools of Syria they say: the next war after the Islamists will be with the Kurds. As for the Islamists and the pro-Turkish opposition, there is no need to talk about their attitude towards the Kurds. Confident control of the territory is possible if more than 70 percent of the population is loyal. In the north of Syria, the number of percent-loyal percent to 70 is underdeveloped and there are two annoying factors: the presence of the US military and the Kurdish expansion. Plus, the negative-aggressive attitude towards this of Turkey, which creates the basis for the start of hostilities and armed provocations against Kurdish troops.
According to American intelligence, there are four to five thousand militants of ISIS in Rakka, which is comparable to the garrison of Mosul before the start of his assault. Unlike the latter, Rakka is more compact, which means that the line of defense is not so stretched. The open southern corridor allows you to "invite" supporters of the IG and the population to the exit. So far this option has been suppressed by the Russian HQ, which has reduced the flow of refugees. But through the open south, ammunition can be delivered and reinforcements approach. When dragging out the assault, the Americans will be forced to divert their forces to block the southern corridor. The assault will be slowed down by mine traps. The US command will have to attract their own sappers, since the VTS does not have them. American special forces will act on the front line, while to adjust the fire. Everything testifies that the assault on Rakka will be just as problematic as Mosul. If, of course, the attackers do not agree with the IG supporters, firing them without a fight from the south to Palmyra and Deir ez-Zor.
“Shield of the Euphrates” in Jordan
The de-escalation zones include Idlib, parts of the provinces of Aleppo, Latakia and Hama, a region north of Homs, as well as East Guta, Dera'a and Quneitra. The agreement proposes to prohibit military activity here, including air flights. The document is designed for six months and can be automatically extended for the same period. In this case, the Russian military has repeatedly stated that the fight against the groups of the IG and Dzhebhat an Nusra will continue. But this implies the raids of government troops in such zones and the bombing of Islamist positions. Americans begin to consider them as “no-fly security zones”.
Thus, a representative of the Syrian Armed Forces Command reported on June 5 about the attack of a coalition air force led by the United States on an army position in the Esh-Shahim area on the highway to the border town of Al-Tanf. May 18 Western coalition air forces have already attacked one of the positions of the Syrian army on the highway in Al-Tanf. According to the Pentagon, the strikes were carried out on a convoy of government forces approaching the coalition military base in Al-Tanf, where an opposition training camp was set up.
It follows: in the territory of de-escalation, security zones for US-loyal forces will be created, including with Russian assistance. Moscow, Tehran and Damascus do not have an algorithm to counter such practices. While the Americans are operating in southern Syria, there is no guarantee that this experience will not be distributed. When creating such a zone on the Syrian-Jordanian border, it is reasonable to repeat it in other areas. Time will pass, and from these bridgeheads, the active expansion of the armed opposition to other parts of the country will begin. The fight against jihadists in de-escalation zones is possible for the Russian Aerospace Forces. Caliber missiles are preferable to use in the south, because unlike aviation This is a non-contact way of fighting. In other cases, the use of ground and air forces where the possibility of a direct collision with the Americans is minimal is justified.
The decision to create a security zone along the entire perimeter of the Jordanian-Syrian border was made by the Americans and their Jordanian allies, the question is only in the timing of the project. Most likely it will start after the end of Ramadan, and the active phase may begin in the fall. To support this operation, the United States and Great Britain have already transferred reserves to Jordan from Iraq. Polish and Canadian troops were redeployed to Iraq to replace them. In Jordan, deployed about 100 helicopters Bundeswehr. Soon there will leave the remnants of the German contingent from the Turkish base "Incirlik". The end of their relocation will also serve as an indicator of the beginning of the active phase of the coalition operation. And we are talking about the creation of a zone that does not coincide with the projects of de-escalation zones in the area.
During the visit of Donald Trump to Saudi Arabia, in secret consultations with the King of Jordan Abdullah II 21, the last details of creating an “exclusion zone” around the perimeter of the Jordan-Syrian border were discussed. The plan of military intervention by the Jordanians to Syria was detailed and approved as part of the overall operation of the Western coalition forces. Experts argue that the main idea of the Americans here is to prevent the creation of a pro-Iranian arc from Tehran to Beirut. Provision is made for clearing the zone of the forces of the Syrian Shiite militia prepared by the IRGC with minimization of Iranian influence. Riyadh is aware and involved in the financing of the plan.
The action plan of the Jordanian forces was prepared for the meeting in Riyadh by the Chief of the General Staff M. Freihat and the head of the General Intelligence (EAR) Administration of Jordan I. al-Jundi. They are well aware of the situation in the area of the Syrian-Jordanian border, as they supervised this area. The joint plan envisages the transfer of two battalions of Jordanian special forces, they will be involved in the upcoming operation to support the Syrian opposition, who have been trained the last two years at two bases near the Syrian border and on the basis of the royal college of special forces near Amman. Jordan’s RBM Inspectorate showed that success requires training more fighters. It is envisaged that the Jordanian special forces together with the RBM operatives after the transfer to the border area will begin to train several hundred oppositionists. This may affect the timing of the start of the operation, which is planned to be carried out by the three main rebel groups: the Free Syrian Army, the Omari Brigades and the Revolutionary Army Commandos (RCA). Their role is to create the appearance of the Syrian nature of the operation, to hide the participation of foreigners. In addition, the OPD operatives plan to bring to the cause and Druze. Supply channels are used for this. weapons from Israel, made possible by the mediation of the United States about two months ago. It is possible the direction of the Israeli Druze military advisers to the conflict zone.
Revitalization at the border
More than a million Syrians live in the de-escalation zone that includes Idlib province and its bordering regions - northeastern Lattakia, western Aleppo and northern Hama. It is controlled by troops in 14,5 thousands of people. Zones in the northern province of Homs (180 thousand inhabitants) with the cities of Al-Rastan and Tel-Bis and close areas are controlled by groups of up to three thousand people. In the area of Eastern Guta (690 thousand inhabitants) there are about nine thousand militants. The zone in the south of Syria in the border regions of Jordan with the provinces of Deraa and Kuneitra (up to 800 thousand inhabitants) is controlled by units of the “Southern Front” numbering up to 15 thousand people.
The greatest concern is caused by events in the eastern and northeastern regions of Syria, in the provinces of Racca and Deir ez-Zor. These strategic regions of Damascus are strategic for the SAR to communicate with Iraq and Iran and the continuity of the Tehran-Baghdad-Damascus-Beirut axis. In the province of Rakka, there are oil and gas fields and agricultural land developed in the second half of the twentieth century after the construction of the Euphrates Dam. The territory of the province of Deir ez-Zor is mostly desert, but there are rich oil fields. The city of Deir ez-Zor is held by the garrison of the Syrian Arab army, but the province is under the control of the IS. Most of the food is delivered to the besieged city by air.
Most of the Syrian-Iraqi border is controlled by the Kurds from the "Forces of Democratic Syria" (SDS) or the IS militants. There is a clear trend towards the inclusion of the entire province of Raqqa into the sphere of Kurdish influence. To the south, the buffer role between Syria and Iraq is assigned to Jadan-sponsored Assad opponents — moderate groups and the New Syrian Army. According to the Lebanese newspaper Al-Akhbar, moderate opposition groups in Dera'a province (Jaish al-Ashair, Farik al-haqq and Farik al-Shabab al-Sunna) are now arming and training in camps in the Jordanian territory. Amman’s plans, according to the newspaper, include intervention in the south of Syria, according to the type of operation “Euphrates Shield” undertaken by Turkey last year.
The main border points between Iraq and Syria are the cities of Abu-Kamal in the province of Deir ez-Zor and At-Tanf located to the south at the junction of the borders of Syria, Jordan and Iraq. Washington seeks to prevent government forces from gaining control over them. The Iranians, in whose interests the Asad government of Tatarstan is firmly in control of the Syrian-Iraqi border, are taking countermeasures — establishing cooperation between the Syrian military and the Iraqi Shiite forces “Hashed al-Shaabi” to control the border.
The goal of the Mohammed Rasullah operation of Iraqi Shiites is not only to establish control over the Iraqi-Syrian border, but also to create a corridor from Iraq to Syria. It involves militants from the Badr Brigade, known for their good military training. The deputy commander of “Hashad ash-Shaabi” A. Ali Mukhandis said that his troops must completely eradicate the Islamists from the IS, therefore, anti-terrorist operations will be carried out not only in Iraq, but also in Syria. At the same time, one of the Shiite field commanders said in an interview with the Lebanese newspaper Al-Akhbar that Hashd al-Shaabi would fight in Syria not only against ISI terrorists, but, if necessary, against the Americans.
It is difficult to say to what extent this statement of the Shiite commander, who has preserved incognito, corresponds to reality. In any case, the Iranians, if necessary, can use not only the reserves in Syria, but also the units of General K. Suleymani stationed in Iraq, which is a serious threat to the Americans at the time of the storming of Mosul. Even if we forget that Baghdad is not inclined to walk in the wake of KSA in an attempt to cut the "Shiite crescent" by the hands of the United States and Jordan. Not to mention the partners and allies of Iran in Yemen, Afghanistan and the Gulf monarchies, split by the crisis around Qatar. This suggests major adjustments to the US plans in Syria in the near future.
Information