America will have to pay a trillion dollars for a new nuclear fist
Nuclear horror stories still haunt the Pentagon.
On his way to the main chair of the White House and almost immediately after 45's accession to the Oval Office, US President Donald Trump repeatedly spoke of the need to restructure the American Armed Forces (VS). More than once, he declared his firm intention to put the main shock forces of the United States on top of the world nuclear pyramid. And indeed, the order to assess the current capabilities of the US nuclear forces and to formulate proposals for their further development was one of the first directives of the Supreme Commander of the US Armed Forces to his appointed Secretary of Defense retired General of the Marine Corps (ILC) James Mattis. In the very near future, the Pentagon should put a report entitled “Nuclear Posture Review” on the President’s table. This document will be the basis for the next US nuclear strategy. But while the military department is preparing its report, members of the Supreme Council (FAC) committees of both houses of the US Congress and relevant subcommittees, in turn, ascertained the state of affairs in the nuclear field, including the nuclear threats of the US and its allies, as well as the state and prospects for the development of strategic nuclear weapons. forces (SNF).
ESTIMATES OF THE HEAD OF STRATKOM
8 March this year, members of the FAC House of Representatives held a meeting with the agenda "Military assessment of requirements for nuclear deterrence forces."
Congressmen heard the head of the US Strategic Command, General John Heithen, who presented his vision of the requirements for modern nuclear arms and directions of its further development. Assessments of the capabilities of the nuclear components of the US Navy and Air Forces and the prospects for strengthening them were presented to the legislators by the deputy chiefs of staff of these types of forces, Admiral William Morin and General Stefan Wilson. The opinion of the members of the Chiefs of Staff Committee (CNS) on this issue was expressed by the Deputy Chairman, General Paul Selva.
Opening the meeting, FAC Chairman Mac Thornberry said that all means of delivering nuclear warheads to targets, the warheads themselves and the nuclear force management systems are outdated, have served their time and do not meet modern requirements. He also stressed that for many years, American scientists and engineers worked only to maintain the required level of existing nuclear weapons and extend their service lives. In the past 16 years, comprehensive nuclear tests have not been conducted. The latest nuclear warhead tests took place in the 1991 year. Completely insufficient attention was paid to the development of control systems and communications of strategic forces.
As stated by General Heithen, currently the US Strategic Nuclear Forces are in combat readiness and are able to provide effective protection to the country. He said that almost all the components of these forces, starting with the means of delivery and ending with the stationary elements of the infrastructure, have long ago reached the established service life. Therefore, in the short and long term, the Pentagon will need to implement a large range of activities that will bring all the components of the nuclear triad in line with modern and future requirements and maintain them at the level necessary to solve their combat missions in a changing world situation and ensure strategic stability.
The commander said that in 2028, the deployment of new ICBMs under the Ground Based Strategic Deterrent program will begin. These missiles will replace the ICBM Minuteman - 3 LGM-30G, which have been in service for almost 40 years. In addition, modern missile control systems and their rear support components, which are being created or upgraded under the same program, will be deployed.
Currently, as noted by Heiten, the US Navy has implemented a number of programs to upgrade the Ohio-class SSBNs, which allowed them to extend their service life from 30 to 42 years. But a further increase in the duration of the life cycle of these submarines is no longer possible. Therefore, in the coming 10 years all necessary funds should be allocated for the implementation of the program to create new SSBNs of the Columbia type, which will replace Ohio-type submarines.
He notified the FAC that the Air Force was modernizing the B-52 and B-2 bombers. These aviation nuclear weapons delivery systems are equipped with new radars and other equipment that will allow them to solve their problems in the face of counteracting enemy air defense. But the Pentagon’s aviation ministry’s main efforts are focused on creating the B-21 Raider, an inconspicuous strategic long-range bomber. These bombers will be able to successfully overcome all enemy air defense systems. They will be able to carry both conventional and nuclear weapons. It is assumed that starting from the middle of the next decade, the B-21s will begin to complement, and closer to the 50s of this century, the B-52H, B-1B and B-2A strategic bombers that are in service with the US Air Force will be completely replaced. The total number of new generation bombers should be about 100 units.
The speaker told the congressmen that the Air Force was developing a new high-precision long-range cruise missile (LRSO). They also implemented the B61-12 tactical bomb life extension program and successfully tested it. In accordance with the plans of the Air Force, the entry of these bombs into the troops should begin at the beginning of the next decade, and the LRSO missiles - at the beginning of the 30 of the current century.
The general also stressed that most of the stationary components of the SNF infrastructure have reached their deadlines and need thorough modernization. The same applies to systems and controls and communications that need to be replaced with more reliable and modern ones.
Today, Russia, as Heiten noted, has a huge amount of tactical nuclear weapons, the reserves of which are many times greater than the American arsenal of such means. He stated the need to solve this problem in all possible ways, and above all through negotiations.
In conclusion of his speech, the head of the Strategic Command stated that the opponents of the United States continue to constantly increase their military capabilities, are becoming more and more powerful and are actively developing and introducing modern means of protection against nuclear strikes. Therefore, the armaments of the American strategic nuclear forces must be modernized, and their military contingents are transformed into more modern forces capable of responding flexibly to all present and future strategic challenges.
PLANS OF THE Navy AND Air Force
Following Heithen, Deputy Chiefs of the Navy and Air Force Admiral Morin and General Wilson spoke. They told the FAC members about the prospects for the development of the components of the US nuclear triad entrusted to them and the directions of their development.
Morin informed the congressmen that currently the Navy has 14 SSBNs of the Ohio type, which are alternately on duty in the oceans. However, the service life of these boats will end by the end of the 20s of the current century, and they will need to be replaced with new atomic submarines of the Columbia type. The Columbia SSBN will be operated for 40 years and will provide US protection until the 80 of this century. The first of these boats will have to be on alert at the start of the 2031 of the year. Therefore, in order to fulfill the next generation SSBN deployment plan, their construction must be started in 2021.
As the admiral emphasized, in order to solve the tasks of nuclear deterrence and ensuring US security, the Navy must have at least ten Columbia SSBNs that are in constant readiness to enter combat duty. However, to solve the whole range of tasks for maintaining nuclear fleet at the required level of combat readiness, the armed forces of the Navy should consist of 12 such submarines.
The Navy leadership, said Morin, takes the most active measures to reduce the time taken to purchase submarines, reduce their cost and introduces the most modern technologies into their design, the main one being the technology of reducing stealth visibility. This ensures the secrecy of SSBN actions and significantly reduces their vulnerability. This technology is widely used in the construction of boats of the type "Columbia".
He noted that the specialists of the Navy and contracting organizations of the US military-industrial complex are engaged in a wide range of work on the development of control and communications systems for the nuclear submarine fleet. Much attention is paid to the issues of training high-class specialists who can effectively control the submarine forces of this component of the US nuclear triad.
Morin also said that one of the main planned tasks of the Navy is the task of successfully implementing the program of acquiring SSBNs of the Columbia type and carrying out the necessary measures to increase the length of the life cycle of weapons of this class.
Admiral's aviation colleague, General Wilson, stated that the Air Force was responsible for two thirds of the combat elements of the US Armed Forces nuclear triad, including more than 400 ICBMs and 66 atomic bombers. Approximately 75% of the control systems and communications of the Pentagon’s SNF are operated by specialists of this type of aircraft. The air force also has a fleet of fighters capable of carrying tactical nuclear weapons. The number of military and civilian personnel serving the Air Force’s nuclear forces is about 30 thousand.
However, according to the general, most of the means of delivering nuclear ammunition to targets, warheads, control systems and communications, and other infrastructure elements ensuring their operation were last updated only in the 80-s of the last century and for decades operated longer than specified in the documentation for them service life. He said that the Air Force is rapidly moving towards the moment when the expensive and extremely complex set of programs for extending the life cycle of nuclear weapons will no longer allow the maintenance of the aviation component of the SNF in the state necessary to solve the combat missions.
Wilson emphasized that today decisions on the nuclear triad should not be made in terms of taking measures to modernize existing weapons or extend their service life, but lie solely within the choice between the need to drastically improve the strategic nuclear forces and the risk of losing the nuclear potential of the country at the beginning of 20's years of this century.
According to the general, despite some relaxation of federal legislation, which allows the Air Force to annually receive the necessary funds for the development of its nuclear forces, its leadership needs the constant support of Congress. Lawmakers should advocate for allocating such amounts of funds that the Pentagon’s leadership is requesting to build nuclear forces, make the necessary amendments to laws that have already been adopted, repeal the law on budget control in the next fiscal year, and guarantee predictable funding in this area in the future.
The head of the US Strategic Command, General John Heiten, is in favor of modernizing America’s nuclear triad.
Zamnachstab said that today the main rival of the United States in the nuclear field is Russia. And it is absolutely clear that it will occupy this place in the coming decades. The Kremlin is very active in implementing nuclear weapons modernization programs, paying special attention to ICBMs, building new SSBNs, developing strategic bomber aviation and developing nuclear weapons with nuclear warheads. China and North Korea are moving in similar directions.
As the general stressed, the average age of modern Air Force bombers is 45 years, and the life of the infrastructure to ensure their operation exceeds 40 years. Very outdated and control systems for these weapons. All these elements of the SNF urgently need further development in the shortest possible time.
Concluding his speech, Wilson said that the separation of the United States from other countries in the nuclear sphere continues to decrease continuously, and in some areas it has completely dropped to zero. America must be fully prepared for a nuclear war. The refusal to modernize the strategic nuclear forces is completely unacceptable, since this can lead to irreparable consequences. “We are at a turning point stories. The American people and our allies hope that the Congress will take all the necessary measures to finance the modernization of the nuclear forces, ”the general said.
POSITION KNSH
On the approaches of the KNSH to the development of SNF to members of the FAC PP told his deputy chairman. In his speech, General Selva said that the main task of the US Armed Forces nuclear triad is to prevent a nuclear strike on America. He noted that today, nuclear weapons are the only external threat to the United States. And this threat can be damped in only one way: suggesting to the enemy that a crushing nuclear strike on its territory will be the answer to the attack on America.
Selva stressed that today no one should have any doubts that nuclear weapons, their delivery systems to targets, control and communication systems and specialists ensuring its effective functioning are ready to give a proper response to the enemy in the event of any and even unforeseen circumstances. The general also said that the security of the nation depends to a large extent on the ability of the SNF to solve the tasks facing them.
According to the CNS deputy chairman, for more than two decades the United States has been striving in every way to reduce the role of SNF in its plans and strategies. But many potential opponents of America, and above all Russia, China, North Korea and Iran, are moving in the opposite direction and are taking all measures to increase their nuclear capabilities.
Today, the United States is entering the period when the agenda raises the problem of a radical modernization of the nuclear forces and structures ensuring their functioning. At the same time, paramount attention should be paid to the creation of the most advanced nuclear warheads of nuclear bombs, as well as to the improvement of means of delivering nuclear weapons to targets, that is, ICBMs, the Kyrgyz Republic, bombers and SSBNs. In addition, Selva noted, the United States needs to develop missile attack warning systems, SNF command and control systems and tactical aircraft that can be equipped with nuclear weapons.
He also said that today it is no longer possible to postpone the modernization of the SNF for the future. Previous decisions to postpone plans for the development of nuclear forces led to a slowdown in the implementation of relevant programs. This, as the general stressed, firstly, significantly increased the risk of the United States losing the necessary nuclear power and made the country dependent on the implementation of nuclear programs. And secondly, according to experts, the forced short-term, non-distributed in time costs of upgrading and replacing nuclear weapons can be extremely high and practically not feasible. Therefore, allocations for these purposes need to be constantly increased, but gradually. In the 2016 fiscal year, nuclear program costs accounted for 3,2% of the military budget. Until the end of the 2020-ies, they need to be increased annually and brought to 6,2%.
The general reminded lawmakers that the B-52 bombers, which are still the core of US strategic aviation, began to be developed in the 50s, and cruise missiles and bombs for them - in the 70s of the last century. “In 10 years, these weapons systems will not be able to overcome the Russian air defense, so there is an urgent need to replace them,” Selva said. He also noted that the modernization of the strategic nuclear forces is not indicative of a new round of the arms race. Simply, the existing systems should be replaced by more efficient and sophisticated weapons.
Concluding his speech, Selva said that the modernization of the Strategic Nuclear Forces is a top priority in the complex areas of construction of the US Armed Forces.
OPINIONS OF FORMER PENTAGON OFFICERS
On the same day, the Senate FAC Strategic Forces Subcommittee heard the views of experts on the nuclear situation in the world. Speaking before the legislators, the experts presented to them their ideas about the balance of nuclear forces in the modern world, about the threat to national security from a likely adversary and about promising areas of nuclear construction.
The retired four-star General Robert Köhler, the former head of the US Strategic Command, who led these forces for almost three years, noted that the 21st century is characterized by great uncertainty and rapid changes in the situation in the world. Today, threats to US national security lie in very wide limits. They can arise in the shortest possible time and come from both militants armed with machine guns, machine guns and cannons, and from countries opposing America equipped with powerful nuclear weapons. Tomorrow's regional theaters of tomorrow can turn into global war spaces where cyber warfare can spread to military space very quickly, even before military contingents of united and special commands directly enter the battles.
As the general said, current events indicate that America needs to continue its actions to destroy the formations of radical extremist groups and constantly be ready to counter their attacks. However, in addition to the brutal militants, the United States is actually threatened by the state - the likely opponents. They seek to change the current strategic situation in their favor. To this end, their leaders are taking measures to increase the capabilities of conventional forces, which should be able to strike at the enemy from long ranges, and develop cybernetic means of attack. At the same time, special attention is paid to preserving the capabilities of the Strategic Nuclear Forces of the Armed Forces for delivering nuclear strikes both on a limited and global scale.
Köhler explained to the senators that the modern concept of "integrated strategic threat" is fundamentally different in its content from the concept used during the Cold War, and lies within much wider limits. In those days, a strategic threat was understood only as a nuclear strike. Today, this concept includes the capabilities of the enemy to destroy the main elements of the US Armed Forces, such as, for example, reconnaissance, surveillance, reconnaissance (ISR) and communications systems, and to counteract the deployment and advancement of conventional forces. In addition, modern opponents of the West are developing strategic plans for delivering conventional attacks on the territories of the United States and its allies from considerable distances. They seek to raise America’s risks and expenses to retaliate to unacceptable scales, force federal troops to disperse their forces and assets across many regions of the world, and are taking steps to break up the existing military alliances of Western countries. The final link in this chain of actions hostile to the US armies are nuclear strikes. The first place in the implementation of integrated strategic threats was taken by the general to Moscow and Beijing.
The end of the Cold War, as Koehler stressed, allowed America to significantly reduce the importance of nuclear weapons to ensure US national security. The Pentagon has significantly reduced deployed nuclear systems and facilities. Were reduced and stocks of nuclear weapons in military warehouses. He noted that, in accordance with the existing agreements, the number of warheads on the nuclear systems on duty in comparison with the times of the Cold War by the year 2018 will be reduced by 10. However, according to the commander in chief, nuclear weapons will continue to play a major role in the security strategy of the United States, its allies and partners, and remain the key guarantee of the survival of nations in different parts of the world, and above all in the west.
Today there is no longer such an urgent need for nuclear weapons, which were the most effective means of defense against massive attacks of huge tank armada of the united armed forces of the Warsaw Pact countries. This military alliance has ceased to exist and its troops no longer exist. The general stressed that the role of high-precision and non-kinetic (laser, electromagnetic, beam, etc.) weapons and various means of warning about an attack continues to grow at the present stage. However, as Kahler noted, history shows that no conventional weapons and weapons based on new physical principles are capable of exerting the same effective effect on deterring an aggressor as nuclear systems. The main paradox of the nuclear age, he said, is that to prevent the use of nuclear weapons against America, it needs to be fully equipped with such weapons and ready for their effective use in any conditions.
The former head of the Strategic Command announced that the last time significant investments in the development of the US strategic nuclear forces were made under President Ronald Reagan. Like many other experts in the field of nuclear weapons, he stated that today the security of America is provided by very outdated nuclear systems and facilities. All of them were deployed more than 30 years ago and have finally exhausted their service life. The general noted that today there is full agreement between the Defense Ministry and the Congress on the need to modernize the SNF, dual-purpose tactical aircraft, nuclear warheads, control systems and communications by these forces and the nuclear defense-industrial complex. Koehler expressed full agreement with all proposals for upgrading the SNF that were included in the latest military budgets, and said that the upcoming “Review of Nuclear Forces” should give a full assessment of these plans and the need for their immediate implementation.
As the general believes, today the Pentagon should pay more and more attention to the threats of the use by the enemy of cybernetic weapons, exploiting its units and UAVs. In addition, it is necessary to focus efforts on increasing the survivability of the space and network elements of the control and communication systems of the strategic nuclear forces. In order to preserve and develop the professional skills of specialists in the field of design and production of nuclear weapons, more serious importance should be attached to the processes of creating its prototypes and other measures of a similar orientation. According to Koehler, measures for the most effective integration of the US military contingents in the adjacent areas of their interaction deserve no less attention.
In concluding his speech, the general stressed that the resumption of discussions on nuclear weapons has long been awaited by specialists. Today, clarity and consistency in the attitude towards nuclear weapons, in understanding its place in the strategies of the United States and its allies and in the need to allocate funds to maintain the strategic nuclear forces at the level of current and future requirements are as important as during the Cold War.
Following the general, a big opponent of senators was a big opponent of national nuclear weapons reductions and an active supporter of the modernization of the US nuclear triad, Professor, Ph.D. Keith Payne, who is the head of the Department of Defense and Strategic Studies at the University of Missouri. A scholarly lady served for two years at the Pentagon as Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for personnel management. She is considered a major specialist in nuclear weapons and has repeatedly participated in various negotiations to reduce them, including in Moscow.
In her speech, Payne focused mainly on Russia. She said that in recent years, the Kremlin’s nuclear threat to the West has not decreased, but only continues to grow. Moscow’s plans to launch a preemptive nuclear strike are a new challenge to America and raise entirely new issues on the agenda. According to some information, the professor noted, in response to the emerging Russian nuclear threat, some leaders of European countries, including Germany, are discussing the creation of an independent nuclear deterrent system for Russia. She drew the attention of parliamentarians to the words of the Deputy Commander of the United NATO forces in Europe, British General Sir Adrian Bradshaw, who in early March this year, in an interview with the Financial Times, said that conventional military means to counter Russia in Europe are not enough and the West needs to create a system of “hybrid deterrence” ".
The doctor explained to the senators that the outgoing "Review of Nuclear Forces" should be considered in detail the goals, objectives and strategies of Russia on the world stage. This report should provide an analysis of the reasons why the Kremlin believes that today it has the necessary forces to change the world order that has developed since the Cold War and announces the possibility of being the first to launch a nuclear strike on the enemy. On the basis of these assessments, Payne believes, the document should formulate measures that will allow the West to contain Russia and provide effective protection to the countries of the West.
She said that the basic task of the United States and its allies in confronting Russia is to develop common approaches to the construction of strategic nuclear forces, which should be sufficient in size and equipment and have the flexibility necessary for effective action in the face of ever-increasing tensions and the increased likelihood of nuclear war. The West must demonstrate to Russia that, despite its leadership’s assessment of the combat capabilities of conventional air forces and nuclear formations and their advantages over NATO troops, the leaders of the NATO countries will have enough political will and troops to counter the aggressor, even in the face of the threat of a nuclear war.
Payne believes that expanding the capabilities of the US nuclear forces should not be removed from the agenda today. Although it may be that there is no urgent need to increase the number of these troops at the present stage, their qualitative characteristics must constantly evolve. This is due to the fact that, after 2010, Russia has not followed the commitments on nuclear weapons with due consistency, and its aggressiveness towards the United States and its allies continues to grow.
It should be noted here that, according to American experts, in the coming 30 years, the development of the US strategic nuclear forces will have to spend at least 1 trillion dollars. And half of them should be spent in the 20s of the current century. Most likely it will happen. But the political hawks of America and the warlike leaders of the Pentagon must very firmly remember the words of the great Russian soldier, Prince Alexander Nevsky: "Whoever comes to us with a sword will die by the sword."
Information