Brzezinski predicts the imminent decline of America?
The American journal Foreign Policy publishes articles written by a prominent political analyst and former adviser to President Carter on national security, Zbigniew Brzezinski, who is the author of the book “Strategic Concept: America and the Crisis of Global Power”, which is coming out soon. In his articles, the analyst expresses an opinion about the possible, though not inevitable, decline of the United States, which can bring negative consequences for the whole world.Zbigniew Brzezinski in Foreign Policy cites the words of a Chinese official who asked his American counterpart to prevent America from declining too quickly. According to the author, the Chinese’s concerns about the possible negative consequences of weakening America are quite fair. According to Brzezinski, the result of decline may be the emergence of uncertainty on the international arena, possibly increasing friction between global rivals. He does not exclude the emergence of open chaos, which will bury the dream of democracy, leading to a model of strengthening national security, which will be based on hybrids of nationalism, authoritarianism and religion.
Already, the leaders of the world powers belonging to the "second rank" - Japan, India, Russia and some European countries, are trying to calculate the possible consequences of the coming of the US into decline. According to Zbigniew, Russia is already “dreaming (and even gloating)” about America’s uncertain prospects. He also suggests that Russia is almost certainly starting to look closely at the former Soviet republics, now independent states.
In China, according to Zbigniew, at the moment there is an awareness of the fact that the path to success does not lie in the sharp collapse of the existing world order, but in the gradual redistribution of power. However, the political scientist also prophesies that if Chinese nationalism manifests itself, causing aggravation of relations with its neighbors, then Asia of the 21st century may well become like Europe of the 20th century - bloodthirsty and full of violence.
Will affect the decline of the United States and a number of weak states.
So, for example, after the weakening of the United States, the partnership with Mexico will inevitably collapse: the United States will fear for its security, which will lead to increased nationalism, and the Mexican side, in turn, may recall territorial claims.
According to Zbigniew, in all areas where, at the moment, “superiority and omnipresence” of the power of the United States brings order, conflicts will escalate. The results of this, he considers the weakening of control over the sea routes, space, the environment and even cyberspace from the international community.
Brzezinski urges the United States to either think about a new foreign policy strategy, or start preparing for the inevitable global shocks.
In another article published in Foreign Policy, Zbigniew Brzezinski notes that weakening US global authority can lead to regional conflicts. He lists eight countries for which the decline of America will be a loss.
1. Zbigniew believes that for Georgia this would mean vulnerability to “political intimidation and military aggression” from Russia. The article describes what this could lead to: increasing Russian influence over the southern "channel" for the oil and gas supply of Europe, which could lead to increased pressure on European countries to agree with Russia's political goals.
2. Taiwan will become more vulnerable to China and may well be "enchanted" by the success of the Chinese economy. The date of reunification will approach, but its terms will be dictated by Beijing. All this can lead to increased risk of a confrontation with China.
3. South Korea will face a dilemma: strengthen relations with Japan or recognize China's regional dominance. This could lead to a deterioration in stability on the Korean Peninsula and a crisis of confidence on the part of Japan and South Korea in the current US obligations.
4. For Belarus, the decline of America will mean the reabsorption of the country by Russia, which may lead to a deterioration in the security of the Baltic countries, Latvia in particular.
5. For Ukraine, this may mean a weakening of the desire and ability on the part of Europe to carry out actions to integrate the country into the Western community. According to Zbigniew, this could threaten to revive Russia's imperial ambitions.
6. For Afghanistan, already mired in devastation, the withdrawal of US troops from the country's territory may well lead to the disintegration of the state and the rivalry of its closest neighbors for power. The result could be a resurgence of the Taliban, an Indian-Pakistani war, a safe haven for international terrorists.
7. Pakistan, according to Zbigniew, can turn into a state controlled by the military. He does not rule out the possibility of the emergence of a radical Islamic Pakistan or a quasi-state without a central government. This may lead to the appearance of field commanders with nuclear weapons. weapons; coming to power of the government, which will conduct an anti-Western policy; the emergence of regional instability in Central Asia, with violence may overwhelm China, India and Russia.
8. For Israel and the "Greater Middle East" in general, Zbigniew predicts "tectonic shifts" that will literally explode political stability. The result could be a direct US confrontation with Israel or Iran. Not excluded, according to Zbigniew, and the growth of Islamic radicalism and extremism. An oil and gas crisis is likely to affect the entire world and leave US allies in the Persian Gulf vulnerable.
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