Military Review

Iraq, Syria, Turkey ... Who's next?

77
Having already expressed our opinion once about what happened in Turkey and about possible consequences, we decided to look at everything that happens near our southern borders from a slightly higher height. And try to predict who is next in line for a fire.




If everything is more or less clear with Syria and Iraq, the fire there has already been burning for a long time and, apparently, for a long time. In Syria, there is a clear destabilization of the situation, the fault of which is, first of all, misunderstanding between Russia and the United States about who the terrorist is “frank” and who is moderate. And who needs to be cut first, and with whom you can try to come to an agreement.

Meanwhile, the terrorists who are frank for us are clearly not going to give up. And, as long as they have bases in the territory of the same Iraq, which, under the occupation of the United States, can be anything but an independent country, as long as the militants dress in Turkey, this song will last more than one year.

Turkey, despite the seemingly declared war on terrorists, will not be in the near future. Especially if the war with terrorists will not be on the Internet. For this, as it were, an army is needed, and with this, in the near future, the Turks have the tension drawn. 6 000 arrested military officers from among the officer corps - this is not a joke. It is clear that part of the release, but ...

It would be strange if the Islamic State and the Kurds did not take advantage of this to the full extent. We are sure that they will take advantage.

Go ahead on the map, up and to the right. There we have two inveterate neighbors: Armenia and Azerbaijan. Russia's ally in the CSTO and the "younger brother" of Turkey. The rehearsal has already been in Karabakh this year, so, in principle, the situation is normal. And with a certain desire and "help" the neighbors again cling to each other in the back of the neck with a normal southern temperament. Sure.

On the other hand, the situation in the Karabakh region is quite possible, as practice has shown, to resolve, if not by persuasion, then at least by a shout from the side of the stronger. While they are obedient, it is difficult to say how much "while" it is long in time. But there were already rehearsals both in Armenia and in Azerbaijan from the side of internal forces. Again, while everything seems to have settled down, as you remember, but again, it is a matter of time and desire to start a fire.

But our view is directed somewhat further. There, beyond the Caspian.

Strange as it may seem, but we have overlooked Afghanistan. Firstly, while Massoud’s “Northern Coalition” rules there, everything is more or less calm, and secondly, it’s worse than it is, if it does, it will not be soon. Although the existing clan system is quite conducive to the emergence of both those who are dissatisfied and willing to solve their problems in the usual way for this country, and for ISIL, which can take the side of the opposition.

Middle Asia. Uzbekistan

In our opinion, this is the point at which it is most profitable to “ignite”. And, if we have a constant increase in tension around our borders, then here is a possible next point for you to apply these forces and means.

Tell me where is Uzbekistan, and where are our borders?

It's simple. In fact, our borders are much closer than it seems when looking at a map. But first, a couple of words about the country itself.

Quite a developed country with even more ambitious plans. The economy of Uzbekistan is among the most dynamically developing, everything is pretty good with proven gold reserves (4-e place in the world), uranium (7-e), molybdenum (8-e). It seems that everything is quite well with the extraction and sale of agricultural resources and products (cotton and astrakhan fur).

True, despite all these rather beautiful figures and places in the world rankings, citizens of this country, claiming the most diverse positions in the field of employment, have already become quite familiar to Russians. Strange, but true.

However, Uzbekistan is a rather ambitious neighbor for the rest. And Karimov’s policy is rather tough and pragmatic with respect to his neighbors.

Yes, the army of Uzbekistan is pretty decent. At least, at first glance, superior to the armed forces of Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan and second only to the Turkmen army. But Turkmenistan pursues a neutral policy in the region, while Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan are members of the CSTO. Unlike Uzbekistan, who left this organization in 1999 year.

We deliberately leave aside Kazakhstan, which is also a neighbor. For very specific reasons. Mr. President and the leader of the nation today, and comrade member of the Politburo of the Central Committee of the CPSU Nursultan Nazarbayev yesterday, no matter how criticized his opponents, conducts a very definite course in which it is difficult to imagine total changes of any color. Orange, chestnut and other.

Moreover, the arson rehearsal in Kazakhstan has passed. We wrote about it, it is not worth repeating.

Neither should we compare the armies of Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan.

What is the most negative today in our vision and understanding? Uzbekistan is the most religious country of all of the above. This is the center of Islam in Central Asia. With all the ensuing consequences. We all know the consequences, as they say, in the family not without a freak, but for some reason it is from a Muslim family that today the main majority of freaks of a terrorist nature creep out. Alas, but a fact.

But it is precisely in Uzbekistan that religious influence is strong, as in no other neighboring country. This is also a fact. Moreover, according to our Kazakh friends, it is precisely from the territory of Uzbekistan that today there is a flow of religious figures of a clearly reactionary nature. In Kazakhstan, they coped with this by introducing state certification of imams. But then Kazakhstan ... Which, by the way, according to the Gallup Institute (USA), is the least religious country in Central Asia.

Let's summarize some. The points, starting with the least significant.

1. Uzbekistan is a country where the influence of the religion of Islam is very strong.
2. There are claims to neighbors (Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan), both economic (dam construction, for example) and territorial.
3. Claims for the title of "the first country in the region."
4. Foreign policy that does not support membership in the EAEU, the CSTO and similar organizations.
5. Rich raw material base.
6. The neighbors with whom the relations are not the best are Russia's allies in the CSTO and partners in the EAEU.

Moreover, today Karimov is pursuing a policy like "yours and ours". Not complicating relations with Russia, but completely giving out advances to our "partners." Judging by the image and likeness of some politicians who worked in this style (Gaddafi, Yanukovych), then Karimov’s future is not drawn in the most radiant light.

And, of course, oil, gas, uranium and other pleasures. Plus, Afghanistan is close by, from which you can transfer anything from weapons and ending units of militants.

In April and May of this year, we predicted that Turkey would rise to its ears sooner or later. Turkey got up. The question is where the next vector of anti-Russian forces will be sent. There are weak points. This is Moldova, this is Karabakh.

It is possible that our enemies will deem it necessary to kindle another bonfire in Central Asia, where we have friends and allies in Kazakhstan (well, Kazakhstan is Eurasia, but we are not to blame for being so healthy in territory and bordering Uzbekistan) Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan.

Why not exactly in the countries listed? About Kazakhstan, we have already said, and, unlike Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, Uzbekistan simply has more than what might interest others. Gold, uranium, oil and gas are, forgive, not Ukrainian factories and black earth. This is real money.

The region is interesting for our enemies, and rehearsals have already been there. It remains only to check the time these assumptions.
Author:
77 comments
Information
Dear reader, to leave comments on the publication, you must sign in.
  1. parusnik
    parusnik 20 July 2016 06: 44
    +10
    Blaze up where we are not, a holy place does not happen empty ..
    1. SSR
      SSR 20 July 2016 08: 20
      +17
      Quote: parusnik
      Blaze up where we are not, a holy place does not happen empty ..

      To be objective, in / in Ukraine we were only exactly where we were now stable - Crimea, but the rest of the country was destabilized, so our presence there in the whole country did not help, the top was bought up by the United States and the CIA was in charge.
      Uzbekistan blazes with the departure of Karimov and it is likely that on the border with Kazakhstan, Karakalpaks who consider themselves part of the Kazakhs were expelled to Uzbekistan in the 20s, by Telman, Kalinin and others. Uzbekistan is an artificial state where (a rare exception) the majority came to be called by the name of the minority Uzbeks although most of the territory was Khojo and Sarts in Tashkent, back in the 50s, the majority were Kazakhs. Now, from Uzgen and the surrounding area, Uzbeks migrant workers go to work even to Kyrgyzstan, a lot of people dissatisfied with the Karimov family + their family of ordinary citizens of neighboring republics set themselves up against themselves with moats, mines, and lawlessness of the police and military. The media write little, but two Uzbeks from Uzbekistan will not openly speak with you, because each of them will fear that the second will hand over to the servicemen, even for an approving speech addressed to Russia simply, they are sent to prison.
      + a very characteristic feature at a meeting, let's say a guest they ooze oily .... but this oil is aimed far ahead, or they will ask for a service or spit in the back, the Uzbek will go to the Kyrgyz, he has made all the right hajj and starts pouring Kyrgyz into his ears that the Kirghiz and Uzbeks of the Russian special services are quarreling, and when meeting with the Russian, it begins to pour in the ears that it’s stupid Kyrgyz quarreling Russia and Uzbekistan.
      1. Pitot
        Pitot 20 July 2016 11: 51
        +3
        Kaklaina is a cancerous tumor of all geyropa. And they cherish and cherish it, not realizing that it is their death ..... but in principle it will be easier for us to some extent ...... we will only have to dig a lot ....
    2. vlad66
      vlad66 20 July 2016 08: 52
      +14
      It is entirely possible that our enemies will find it necessary to light another bonfire in Central Asia,

      Gentlemen, comrades have forgotten about Belarus, although Dad is not Yanukovosch, but recently he has also been pursuing a policy of ours and yours, and perhaps, unfortunately, after the State Duma elections, all white-tape pornography will climb into the swamp again. For these obscurantists, the worse is better for them.
    3. Rus2012
      Rus2012 20 July 2016 08: 53
      +2
      Quote: parusnik
      It will burn where we are not


      Quote: Alexander Staver, Roman Skomorokhov
      in Uzbekistan


      ... my friend from Uzbekistan reports that the Chinese are already sitting there quite well.
      And the fact that Karimov himself - from Bukhara Jews, says a lot.
      So it seems like you can breathe out - nothing will happen ...
      1. vpm
        vpm 20 July 2016 15: 15
        +5
        The Chinese sat tight in Libya, had to evacuate almost 10000 people. So this is not a guarantee. Meanwhile, from all the closest important neighborhoods of Russia, Central Asia is almost the only one not thoroughly destabilized. So you can wait just from there, especially through Afghanistan, you can bring a lot of instability to the entire region. Just because there are no visible signs does not mean that systematic covert work is not being conducted. Quite the opposite.
        1. Lyubopyatov
          Lyubopyatov 20 July 2016 17: 08
          +4
          Just the presence of China in Libya accelerated the US attack on this country. All commentators then maintained that this was a war to expel China.
      2. The comment was deleted.
      3. One of you
        One of you 20 July 2016 15: 23
        +9
        The presence of the Chinese in Sudan (northern and southern) does not save these quasi-judges from a possibly new bloody war, which, according to experts, begins again.
        As for Karimov’s nationality, without going into details, I want to draw your attention to the areopagus of the Kiev junta and the oligarchs, many of whom are Jews, but at the same time the war in Ukraine has been going on for the third year. So I do not see any connection between Karimov’s nationality and the absence of armed rebellions and clashes in Uzbekistan.
    4. Vend
      Vend 20 July 2016 09: 53
      +4
      Quote: parusnik
      Blaze up where we are not, a holy place does not happen empty ..

      I agree. We are not in the USA and the EU.
      1. sa-ag
        sa-ag 20 July 2016 10: 15
        +4
        Quote: Wend
        We are not in the USA and the EU

        Some residents of the glorious cities of Miami and London will not agree with you :-)
      2. Dulat
        Dulat 20 July 2016 11: 06
        0
        It is necessary to fix it.
    5. One of you
      One of you 20 July 2016 15: 14
      +5
      Blaze up where we are not, a holy place does not happen empty ...

      I do not agree. Knowing our not-so-distant history, I can say that the presence of our troops in other countries did not save these countries from rebellion - an example of this is post-war Poland, Czechoslovakia and Hungary.
      Selling politicians, internal dissidents and opponents of the government, as well as a foreign agent network, can easily make an armed coup in any country of the former USSR or a country bordering Russia, while our help to the legitimate authorities in the person of the president in the west will be clearly interpreted as protecting a despot, a thief and killers, and rioters a priori will be exposed as fighters for freedom, democracy and prosperity.
      1. Cro-Magnon
        Cro-Magnon 20 July 2016 16: 32
        +3
        And you just need to crush any putsch and drown in blood "fighters for all good against all bad"! And do not care what they will then bleat-winners are not judged! And we are used to making excuses and bleating ... so we get the tinsel!
        1. midivan
          midivan 21 July 2016 03: 48
          +1
          Quote: Cro-Magnon
          And you just need to crush any putsch and drown in blood "fighters for all good against all bad"! And do not care what they will then bleat-winners are not judged! And we are used to making excuses and bleating ... so we get the tinsel!

          Well, from today on, you’re more careful when cornering wink package !, one, I would say a pretty aunt for such revelations provides up to 7 years or a very (for me, for example) a substantial fine
    6. The comment was deleted.
      1. bazalt16
        bazalt16 22 July 2016 03: 03
        0
        "Bad people", as you put it (dear Roman and Alexander), appear in those places where all sorts of NGOs with Western registration begin to work, and when small-town "Russian patriots" like Satanovsky and Zhirinovsky begin to point fingers at enemies and play off people, giggling at the same time over the goyim. And the sectarians, whose headquarters are located in London, are beginning to fool the heads of young people about jihad. How will these unfortunate analysts like it, if we say about the conflict in Ukraine in their language: freaks killing their Slavs? ”Roman Skomorokhov was already noted for his“ deep ”knowledge of Islam — or rather, Islamophobia. After all, they invented about the center of Islam in Asia. Roman, and where is the center of Christianity in Europe located? Together, the would-be analysts "gave birth" to a wretched article worthy of the work of a vocational school graduate .. Have you even Roman and Alexander traveled outside of Moscow? At least in one republic of Central Asia Roman and Alexander surrender that your maiden names are completely different, but you are hiding under new surnames, Russians
  2. Teberii
    Teberii 20 July 2016 06: 48
    +2
    Sadly there are no borders with our neighbors. A fire will break out in any of these countries, it will begin to spread rapidly to the neighbors. In this case, the war will come to us.
    1. Alexander Romanov
      Alexander Romanov 20 July 2016 07: 26
      +6
      Quote: Teberii
      Sadly no borders with our neighbors

      There is a border with Ukraine, the result is a million refugees with us.
    2. Vasilenko Vladimir
      Vasilenko Vladimir 20 July 2016 07: 57
      +3
      Quote: Teberii
      Sadly there are no borders with our neighbors.

      if there are neighbors there are borders, if there are no borders then no neighbors
  3. Vasilenko Vladimir
    Vasilenko Vladimir 20 July 2016 06: 49
    +19
    choose illustrations more carefully Crimea he is still Russian
    1. Vasilenko Vladimir
      Vasilenko Vladimir 20 July 2016 07: 58
      +1
      a Cossack got in the way who believes that Crimea is not Russian?
      Gulchatay! Show your face
    2. Temples
      Temples 20 July 2016 08: 01
      +5
      What is there Crimea!
      They don’t have time for cards laughing
      Morning in the yard, but the material is not made up! laughing

      Here is Russia's accusation of destabilization in Syria:
      In Syria, there is a clear destabilization of the situation, whose fault is primarily the misunderstanding between Russia and the United States on the topic of who the terrorist is “frank” and who is moderate.


      Or here is the pearl:

      Meanwhile the terrorists who frank for usare clearly not going to give up.


      Terrorists are frank for them.
      Communicate heart to heart!

      So, it is not surprising that Crimea is Ukrainian on the map.

      Analysts wassat
  4. Tatar 174
    Tatar 174 20 July 2016 06: 49
    +6
    The ability to predict is good, of course, in order to lay straws just in case, but it is more important to understand where the source of all these fires is and who and why ignites them. Everything is clear with this, too, so you have to deal with the source, and so far no one can or do not want to do anything, there are too many of them. But despite this, it’s necessary to try to fight all the same, and if they don’t want to understand the words addressed to them, then they must be blamed in every way until they fall down. Then the fires will stop in the world, because the source is the only one known! So fortune-telling, we will not achieve anything, but we will achieve only by deeds. There are a lot of cases, you really need to do them.
    1. domokl
      domokl 20 July 2016 06: 56
      +4
      what Offer to fight with the source? And our navel will not get loose? Given that we are inferior in almost all respects ...
      and then why do you not recognize the right of the people to determine the internal policy in their state? It is in his. You can "take the enemy by the breast" hundreds of times and only by this win. But one day it is not possible to receive a reply ... already on your own face.
      1. ver_
        ver_ 20 July 2016 07: 17
        0
        ... there Akhillesova is already so bare ...
      2. B.T.V.
        B.T.V. 20 July 2016 07: 18
        +11
        Quote: domokl
        , why do not you recognize the right of the people to determine domestic politics in your state? It is in his.


        After the referendum in our state, when the majority voted "for" the USSR, do you believe that the people are endowed with "the right to determine domestic policy in their state" ?! In Syria, the people voted for Assad, and the State Department says: "Assad must leave," The "exceptional" are not satisfied with the "right of the people to determine domestic policy in their state."
        1. domokl
          domokl 20 July 2016 08: 01
          0
          Something about the crooked face was ... Why should we extend our experience to others?
        2. sa-ag
          sa-ag 20 July 2016 10: 17
          +1
          Quote: B.T.W.
          After the referendum in our state, when the majority voted "for" the USSR, do you believe that the people are endowed with "the right to determine domestic policy in their state" ?!

          Bravo, the people here fulfill a purely decorative function, if the will of the people runs counter to the interests of the ruling elite, their opinions are neglected
      3. Beefeater
        Beefeater 20 July 2016 08: 04
        +6
        Quote: domokl
        what Offer to fight with the source? And our navel will not get loose? Given that we are inferior in almost all respects ...
        and then why do you not recognize the right of the people to determine the internal policy in their state? It is in his. You can "take the enemy by the breast" hundreds of times and only by this win. But one day it is not possible to receive a reply ... already on your own face.

        Well, where to go. We have such a fate.
        For example, for twenty years we did not pay attention to the internal affairs of Ukraine, the matter ended in disaster. Hence the conclusion. We must have zones of influence and defend our interests
        1. V.ic
          V.ic 20 July 2016 11: 07
          0
          Quote: Beefeater
          We must have zones of influence and defend our interests

          Aha, before this "estate" it will be necessary to coordinate this with your ideological brothers. Well, they will cut us, as in the 90s, zones of influence and defending our interests from Mukh.SRANsk to Zazh.pinsk!
          The rulers of the Russian Federation just need to keep their heads cold (and sober)!
        2. Antiprogressor
          Antiprogressor 22 July 2016 04: 28
          0
          Here, for example, since 1980, crook-officials were raised and did not pay attention to the internal affairs of the USSR, then Russia. And how is it now? With the fifth column, which is all under the control of US intelligence. Well, for example, the same Kasyanov. He will not perform the tasks imputed to him, he will immediately receive a black mark and will leave to rest in the cell to Booth. And so all former officials, real and agents of influence, trained at Yale or Harvard University in courses on revolutionary subversive work (Navalny, for example. Or Garik Kimovich).
          In the same Central Asia, the Caucasus and other republics of the former USSR, work is carried out no less intensively than in Russia. And in our country, students are brainwashed in megacities. Not to mention two million Russian citizens abroad. Strength! Future Saakashvili and Yatsenyuki ...
          And what are the bills about this? Well, make a law on illegal property. Let them prove where they took the money, why they did not pay millions of taxes. What funds did I buy this and that? Oh, mom gave? Where's mom's tax return? Grandma’s inheritance? And where is the gift from the notary? And also financial intelligence, as in the States. Where did Stalin get the money for industrialization? And here, just at the stealing former party comrades. What did the founder of the Singapore miracle say to Medvedev in the light of the fight against corruption? Sit down to start with three of your close friends ..
          . For they are the main corrupt officials and the main danger.
          A healthy society begins with the integrity of the government.
          Although, the revival of the Iron Felix, Sergo and other officials burning at work can not be believed. Business for the most part is more honest than bureaucrats.
      4. V.ic
        V.ic 20 July 2016 11: 01
        0
        Quote: domokl
        Offer to fight with the source? A navel

        What is interesting to me: to which grandfather, from which village do you turn?
  5. Sergey39
    Sergey39 20 July 2016 07: 15
    +3
    There are many options - Transnistria, Karabakh, and Kazakhstan, but the most probable are Ukraine and Uzbekistan. Unless, of course, the states are torn apart.
  6. D. Dan
    D. Dan 20 July 2016 07: 30
    0
    Transnistria has already been blocked by railways. messages!
  7. Tsoy
    Tsoy 20 July 2016 07: 35
    +1
    True, despite all these rather beautiful figures and places in the world rankings, citizens of this country, claiming the most diverse positions in the field of employment, have already become quite familiar to Russians. Strange, but true.


    Everything is very simple. Most of all belongs to Karimov and his entourage. All is written down on the daughter. So the population from these numbers is neither cold nor hot. Subsoil general, and dreams come true only at Gazprom ... the same picture only in profile.

    By the way, the Nobel company is very active in the oil and gas sector, from the dividends of which the premium is paid. Very surprised to know about it.
  8. Vim
    Vim 20 July 2016 07: 53
    0
    The likelihood of a big (namely big) mess in the Central Asian states is much lower than in the coastal countries because of the complicated material support. It is enough to recall the price of the operation in Afghanistan for the Yankees. And Russia and China in this case will not be silent. And they are nearby, unlike.
  9. VSZMK
    VSZMK 20 July 2016 07: 58
    +2
    Why not Turkmenistan? Yes, the most prosperous country with rich reserves and a relatively strong army. Yes, neutral. But Libya was not one of the poor.
  10. Kudrevkn
    Kudrevkn 20 July 2016 08: 09
    +2
    I agree with the Authors, but Uzbekistan is already involved in the war (remember the crying ISIS suicide bomber in the SAR). Whole Uzbek detachments have been fighting on the side of the Taliban in Afghanistan since the days of the "international debt" of the USSR? But the most interesting thing is not Uzbekistan, but ... Turkmenistan! Is it really "the girl has matured" and is not offended by the resources: "strong and deep enough rear" for any terrorist state? Moreover, in recent years (especially after the death of the great "Pope of all Turkmens"), the success of the social and economic development of this Central Asian country is simply impressive !? A very tasty "pie - cake" for ISIS, the Taliban, and other terrorist scum?
    1. Tsoy
      Tsoy 20 July 2016 09: 32
      +1
      Quote: KudrevKN
      but Uzbekistan is already involved in the war (remember the crying ISIS suicide bomber in the SAR).


      So there is no one there ... In Chechnya, the black mercenaries were, by your logic, the Russian Federation fought with the countries of Africa? With regards to modern Afghanistan, there were remnants of opposition, gathered in the so-called Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan. It included “Adolat Uyushmasi” (“Justice Society”), “Islamic Revival Party”, “Islamic Party of Turkestan”, “Islom Lashkarlari” (“Warriors of Islam”), etc. The headquarters was in Kandahar. In 2001, their leader Namangani was killed. The movement took responsibility for the terrorist attacks in Kyrgyzstan at the beginning of the 2000s. They took part in the war in Tajikistan, Afghanistan, and Waziristan (Pakistan). In 2014 joined the IG. These are pure terrorists and their activities are prohibited in the Russian Federation. Leaders all in emigration, entry into the country is ordered for them.
      There are still Hizbut Tahrir also in zero bomb detonated in Tashkent. Leader killed by rocket drone in Pakistan. Their activity is also prohibited in most countries.
  11. xackera
    xackera 20 July 2016 08: 24
    +7
    An article that claims to be an analysis, but from a finger.
    I especially liked this phrase:
    Yes, the army in Uzbekistan is pretty decent. At least at first glance, superior to the armed forces of Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan and second only to the Turkmen army.

    At the same time, in October 2015, the President of Turkmenistan flew to Tashkent to agree, including on military assistance from Tashkent, in which case.
    Quote: KudrevKN
    I agree with the Authors, but Uzbekistan is already involved in the war (remember the crying ISIS suicide bomber in the SAR). Whole Uzbek detachments have been fighting on the side of the Taliban in Afghanistan since the days of the "international debt" of the USSR? But the most interesting thing is not Uzbekistan, but ... Turkmenistan! Is it really "the girl has matured" and is not offended by the resources: "strong and deep enough rear" for any terrorist state? Moreover, in recent years (especially after the death of the great "Pope of all Turkmens"), the success of the social and economic development of this Central Asian country is simply impressive !? A very tasty "pie - cake" for ISIS, the Taliban, and other terrorist scum?

    You forget about some things:
    1) the units of the Uzbeks who howl on the side of ISIS, the Taliban and the like are not the official troops of Tashkent.
    2) For the most part, they are formed from ethnic Uzbeks who live outside of Uzbekistan
    3) The road is closed to such Uzbeks in Uzbekistan. And you will not envy their relatives if they stayed in Uzbekistan.
  12. Stirbjorn
    Stirbjorn 20 July 2016 09: 03
    +1
    Strange as it may seem, but we ignored Afghanistan. First, as long as the Northern Coalition of Massoud rules there, everything is more or less calm.
    Sorry, what Masood and the Northern Coalition ?! Which Ahmad Shah Masood ?! so he has been resting with the guria for 15 years. And the last mention of the Northern Alliance (or the coalition as you like) date back to that time. Or is it so, for a poetic syllable? By the way, in the 90s this alliance didn’t particularly interfere with the entry of weapons and fighters into Chechnya
  13. In..
    In.. 20 July 2016 09: 05
    +1
    Next Pakistan .. in ..
  14. Al1977
    Al1977 20 July 2016 09: 49
    -1
    Guatemala! Wang, that there will be a mess.
  15. dojjdik
    dojjdik 20 July 2016 09: 59
    +1
    here the main thing is to stir up hysteria inside the countries of Russia's neighbors, but there are no such details, for example, about Mexico, the Nitsche army is so decent in the same Venezuela, there is also an army nearby, and Cubans are nearby
  16. Belarus
    Belarus 20 July 2016 10: 00
    +1
    Iraq, Syria, Turkey ... Who's next?


    The question is rhetorical. The next one is who supports the Russian Federation and who does not go to cooperation with the amers.
    1. Lyubopyatov
      Lyubopyatov 20 July 2016 17: 22
      0
      Darling, did you hear that from Lukashenko? Which does not cooperate with us ...
  17. Bashibuzuk
    Bashibuzuk 20 July 2016 10: 02
    +2
    Well, any analysis is just an analysis.
    Vanging, so to speak.
    As for Uzbekistan - I do not believe it.
    Karimov, by the way, was also a member of the Politburo. Or at least a candidate.
    So, he knows the rules of undercover games perfectly.
    And judging by the fact that he has been holding power for 25 years, nothing shines for any radical elders.
    They can wake up, and only.
    ...
    Why respected analysts have lost sight of Abkhazia.
    There, too, a few days ago some kind of turbulent happened. All will not share power. Sweetness.
    Anyway - the States missed the Crimea.
    Shamefully missed.
    Accordingly, they cannot step on the throat of their own song. And they will continue their fuss to limit Russia's access to the oceans - the Atlantic and Indian.
    The Baltic states and Scandinavia are one of the points.
    The environs of the Caspian are another point. But Uzbekistan, like be .... has no access to the sea. It was the Aral Sea, and even that dried up, Karimov did not endure the tyranny.
    Well, the Black Sea - and I already said about Abkhazia.
    .
    Damn, you definitely need to completely cover the Arctic for yourself.
    And let the star-striped strangle themselves.
  18. chunga-changa
    chunga-changa 20 July 2016 10: 05
    +1
    "But the elephant was not noticed ..." Who is organizing all these wars? USA. Where would you organize another war in the USA? Look at the map, what's in the center of the region? Iran, as long as Iran stands, everything else is mouse fuss, it is like a big plug, a stable center, bordering on almost all possible participants. If Iran is removed, the rest in the region will fall on its own, blaze from India - China to Russia - Europe - Africa. Of course, Iran is a rather difficult goal, it will take time, but America is extremely experienced in these matters, as long as they are slowly pinching every little thing, but the main goal is clear. The first step has already been taken, Iran is involved in the Syrian war, takes part in the war in Iraq, spends forces, funds and people.
  19. sa-ag
    sa-ag 20 July 2016 10: 26
    -1
    "...Who is next?"

    For example, the Kaliningrad region, some stirring has already begun around there, no one will attack it, four battalions are deployed in the Baltic States and Poland for a possible land blockade, a fuss with transponders has already begun, demands may be made to demilitarize certain regions such as Crimea, Transnistria, The Kaliningrad region, just like that, in a heap, the reaction in Crimea will be unequivocally negative, a big and bold question will hang over Transnistria (a good reason for bargaining), but the Kaliningrad region will be number two after Transnistria, I repeat, there will be no military action, for another five or six years, going to the Kaliningrad forums, I met such a point of view "KO is not Russia for you", of course there were not many of them, but the fact that there were
  20. Titanumide
    Titanumide 20 July 2016 11: 30
    -1
    Uzbekistan is recognized as the calmest country of 2015 by the newspaper S. Petersburg and thanks to Karimov for not falling asleep under the whistle of bullets and explosions
  21. Titanumide
    Titanumide 20 July 2016 12: 02
    0
    Uzbekistan has become the safest country
    August 24, 2014 Who in the world to live well. Gallup Analysts Unveils Civil Security Index
    Residents of Uzbekistan and Tajikistan feel most relaxed with an index of 88 (on a 100-point scale), according to a report from the Gallup Institute. While the most dangerous country is Venezuela - with an index of 41 points. It was there that 74 percent of the respondents did not trust the police, only 19 percent of adults were not afraid to walk the streets at night, and 22 percent said that either they or their relatives had been victims of robberies during the past year.
    The level of security in the company was also divided into regions of the world. The highest levels of security are in South and East Asia. The most dangerous region in the world are the countries of Latin America and the Caribbean. The experts call Nicaragua the most secure country in Latin America, where the authorities manage to keep the crime situation under control, despite the generally low standard of living of the population.
    The company paid special attention to the countries of the former USSR. In the report, they noted that the inhabitants of these states began to feel safer. “After the collapse of the USSR, the countries that were part of the Union had to rebuild the system of functioning of law enforcement agencies and justice. Since 2009, security levels have increased in eight out of 13 countries, ”the Gallup Institute said in a statement.
    However, the gap between the safest countries (Uzbekistan and Tajikistan) and the most dangerous state (Ukraine - with an index of 53) is 35 points.
    “This means that the inhabitants of Ukraine feared for their safety even before Euromaidan and the war in the southeast of the country,” the report says.
  22. Titanumide
    Titanumide 20 July 2016 12: 07
    0
    The Institute of Economics and Peace has included Uzbekistan in the list of safest countries for tourists. The main criterion for assessing the level of security was the global terrorism index.

    Assessment and rating are made in the framework of the Report on the key global trends of terrorism over the past 15 years. This time, the Institute made a special emphasis on 2014.

    The document is based on information from the World Terrorism Source provided by the National Terrorism Research Consortium.

    It analyzes all the changes, trends in the spread and occurrence of terrorism in 162 countries. According to the global terrorism index, Uzbekistan has become one of 38 countries that are safe to visit on an index scale.

    Together with our country, Japan, South Korea, Finland, Poland, Latvia, Singapore, and others were on the list. According to experts, only in these 38 countries there is no influence of terrorism on the social and economic life of the country.

    Iraq, Afghanistan, Nigeria, Pakistan and Syria are recognized as the most insecure in the global terrorism index.


    Comments
  23. Titanumide
    Titanumide 20 July 2016 12: 09
    0
    Employees of the Belgian think tank have identified 21 countries where terrorist attacks are unlikely, and 13 countries with a high level of terrorist threat.

    TASHKENT, Aug 10 - Sputnik, Maria Sheludyakova. Uzbekistan entered the list of countries with the lowest terrorist threat, according to a report by the Belgian company Aon Belgium.

    The threat of terrorism in Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan has decreased significantly compared to last year. A low level of risk also persists in Russia, Kazakhstan, Belarus, Turkmenistan, Latvia, Lithuania and Moldova.

    The likelihood of terrorist attacks in Uzbekistan has significantly decreased due to increased protection of the border with Afghanistan, where there is a source of terrorist threats in the region.

    According to Belgian analysts, terrorist attacks are likely in all European countries. Nine developed countries rose in the ranking: Austria, Belgium, Canada, Denmark, Estonia, France, Germany, Ireland and Norway. Terrorist activity in Australia and North America has skyrocketed over the past year.

    Countries in the north and central part of Africa were in the zone of extreme risk. In the first place for terrorist danger is the African region of the Sahel.

    Thus, in accordance with the assessments of the analytical group, counter-terrorism measures in Central Asia have borne fruit.

    Russian Islamic scholar, political scientist, chairman of the "Religion, Society and Security" program at the Carnegie Moscow Center Alexei Malashenko is more restrained. He believes that the threat from Islamic terrorist groups persists.
  24. Almatinets
    Almatinets 20 July 2016 12: 09
    +2
    Quote: Kukaner
    Uzbekistan ranks 109th in the annual ranking of peaceful and quiet lives of citizens of the Global Peace Index

    and this is your authoritative infa? All such offices make ratings in the money and in the interests of the State Department
  25. Titanumide
    Titanumide 20 July 2016 12: 10
    -1
    Enough? Mr. Kukaner.
  26. azer
    azer 20 July 2016 12: 28
    +1
    Good day to all. You write strange things about us without knowing anything about us. Before you write where it’s burning, collect the facts. And to write that everything is living badly in Russia, I'm sorry it's stupid.
  27. tiaman.76
    tiaman.76 20 July 2016 13: 40
    -3
    I agree with the author .. Uzbekistan is the weakest link .. there Kerim rests only on the police dictate
    1. azer
      azer 20 July 2016 13: 49
      -1
      Excuse me, dear, where did you get such information? Do you live in Uzbekistan? Are you an employee of the CIA FSB or a senior official?
      1. tiaman.76
        tiaman.76 20 July 2016 22: 43
        -1
        wink I don’t want to say hello to each Uzbek that it’s a certain number of years ago the town was drowned deep in blood .. but few people know about it ... in Kyrgyzstan it somehow broke through
  28. Zymran
    Zymran 20 July 2016 15: 06
    +2
    But it is precisely in Uzbekistan that religious influence is strong, as in no other neighboring country. This is also a fact. Moreover, according to our Kazakh friends, it is precisely from the territory of Uzbekistan that today there is a flow of religious figures of a clearly reactionary nature. In Kazakhstan, they coped with this by introducing state certification of imams. But then Kazakhstan ... Which, by the way, according to the Gallup Institute (USA), is the least religious country in Central Asia.


    In fact, a stream of unconventional religious propaganda pours from the North Caucasus, and not Uzbekistan.
  29. Starik72
    Starik72 20 July 2016 16: 43
    0
    As long as there is CAPITALISM with its slogan LIVING - GOLD - MONEY, while there are HIGHLY DELIVERED BEINGS carrying out this SLOGAN, the rest of ordinary people are prepared for WARS, TERRORITS and BLOOD. After all, the planet EARTH is one BIG MUNICIPAL APARTMENT, where WE live as APARTMENTS, and not as owners, I mean ordinary people. And while these HIGHLY DELIVERED BEINGS exist with their slogan LIVING - GOLD - MONEY, FOR SIMPLE PEOPLE we have prepared BLOOD, TERRORITS and WAR, no matter where and in what part of the planet WE live.
  30. Balagan
    Balagan 20 July 2016 17: 55
    0
    Very interesting analysis. Wait and see.
  31. pigkiller
    pigkiller 20 July 2016 18: 19
    0
    It will be Kazakhstan.
  32. 79512075984
    79512075984 20 July 2016 19: 14
    0
    what kind of analysis. The authors did not even bother to show a real map, so believe this so-called article.
  33. Razvedka_Boem
    Razvedka_Boem 20 July 2016 19: 40
    +3
    When was the last time these "experts" were in Uzbeksitan? They were wrong about religiosity. Religion and the religious institutions themselves are under the dense tutelage of organs. The topic of the Friday sermon is approved by the higher clergy and is the same throughout the territory of the republic, that is, the imam on Friday cannot say "gag".
    Arriving in Tashkent, you will not feel that you are in a foreign environment. Russian speech sounds as often as Uzbek. Young people dress very relaxed and liberated. In the regions there are large-scale reconstruction of cities and roads. There are certain problems, but they are being addressed. The Russian-language press can be bought without problems at any kiosk.
    1. azer
      azer 20 July 2016 20: 25
      0
      te = Razvedka_Boem] When was the last time these "experts" were in Uzbeksitans? They were wrong about religiosity. Religion and the religious institutions themselves are under the dense tutelage of organs. The theme of the Friday sermon is approved by the higher clergy and is the same throughout the territory of the republic, that is, the imam on Friday cannot say "gag".
      Arriving in Tashkent, you will not feel that you are in a foreign environment. Russian speech sounds as often as Uzbek. Young people dress very relaxed and liberated. In the regions there are large-scale reconstruction of cities and roads. There are certain problems, but they are being addressed. Russian-language press can be bought without problems at any kiosk. [/ Quote]
      Moga

      I agree with you !! The article is not about anything. Knowing nothing about our country, such conclusions
  34. Old Horseradish
    Old Horseradish 20 July 2016 20: 11
    -5
    Why is Russia not on the list? Do we have a civil war?
  35. sviazist
    sviazist 20 July 2016 21: 43
    +1
    Will blaze there, whom Russia suddenly decides to merge to the sworn "friends". There are plenty of examples.
  36. Yaushev Artyom
    Yaushev Artyom 20 July 2016 21: 57
    0
    We go further along the map, up and to the right. We have two inveterate neighbors there: Armenia and Azerbaijan. Russia's ally in the CSTO and Turkey's "younger brother" is sheer nonsense, Azerbaijan and Russia have excellent relations, and in the Karabakh issue, Russia supports Azerbaijan's demands
  37. Beefeater
    Beefeater 20 July 2016 23: 42
    0
    Quote: V.ic
    Quote: Beefeater
    We must have zones of influence and defend our interests

    Aha, before this "estate" it will be necessary to coordinate this with your ideological brothers. Well, they will cut us, as in the 90s, zones of influence and defending our interests from Mukh.SRANsk to Zazh.pinsk!
    The rulers of the Russian Federation just need to keep their heads cold (and sober)!

    My ideological brothers, if not from the 90s but not the last, twentieth century, beloved by you for the dictatorship of the proletariat and the bitter happiness of the working people of all countries.
  38. kirieeleyson
    kirieeleyson 21 July 2016 01: 37
    0
    Briefly, a serious analyst wrote. smile Many people write books like this now, they say, the protagonist went around, gathered pianos in the bushes around, won the war if necessary, using a powerful bonus in the form of analytical potential.
  39. larnat
    larnat 21 July 2016 03: 26
    0
    It is strange that on the map attached to the article Crimea is still Ukrainian (the same yellow color as the whole of Ukraine). Is this a authors oversight?
    1. Razvedka_Boem
      Razvedka_Boem 21 July 2016 06: 10
      0
      El shows the degree of competence of the authors.
  40. Kyrgyz
    Kyrgyz 21 July 2016 07: 28
    0
    The assessment of the army of Uzbekistan raises obvious doubts, and Uzbekistan stands apart because it does not consider itself equal with Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, since it has an example of a stronger economy and the number of people and resources, Uzbekistan communicates with Russia only on a bilateral basis, showing that it is not one of and a special one, and for this there is reason, the Islamists in Uzbekistan do not feel free, Karimov fears them and keeps them in check. But Turkmenistan is a fat and weak goal.
  41. Almatinets
    Almatinets 21 July 2016 08: 14
    +1
    Quote: Kukaner
    Do not you think that the Global Peace Index that I have cited is more objective than the propaganda of the Uzbek media targeted for an internal user?
    - I will tell you so, today it is much safer to eat pilaf in a teahouse in Tashkent than to eat croissants on the Champs Elysees
  42. iouris
    iouris 21 July 2016 15: 30
    0
    It is known that Russia is also on the list. Therefore, the question should be raised about the goals of the RF strategy. Asking a question like "who's next?" characteristic of a potential victim, resigned to fate.