However, any analysis of events is good when there is an opinion from the other side. And I very seriously attended to the search for contacts with our Kazakhstan readers. And this material is the fruit of our long conversation with one of them.
I am very sorry that from among those invited to the conversation (and I sent an invitation to 12 to the readers) only one agreed to a direct conversation. Perhaps the result of our conversation will not be entirely objective, but ... It's good that at least one responded. Could be worse.
What do we want to show our joint creation? And I would like to show some analysis of what is happening in Kazakhstan from a joint point of view. It is clear that in Russia she is alone, and in Kazakhstan it can be completely different. And the truth, as you know, is somewhere in the middle. I don’t know if we managed to find this middle, but what we’ve got is what we offer.
So, Kazakhstan in general, Aktobe in particular. From a general point of view.
Many words were said on the topic that this is a rehearsal of the Maidan and stuff like that. The Kazakhstani mass media were also a little fooled, reporting, with reference to the KNB (FSB in Russian), about the "attempted coup d'etat."
It was clear to clever people (to whom I rank myself) that the forces of two dozen organisms armed in a hunting shop do not organize coups. It will be small. Therefore, there is something else here.
If we take the May events as a starting point, which some were quick to call the “color revolution”, here we can say the following. This is not a “color revolution” or even a rehearsal. How are the actions of such a plan, we all know. This is Kiev, this is Tbilisi. The rehearsal is Moscow, Bolotnaya Square. That miser, who gathered in the cities in May, cannot even be called a rehearsal. Mizer - he is miserable in Africa.
The main merit in the noise and din, raised around the May events, belongs to the media. And the media is quite a certain sense. Both oppositional to Nazarbayev, and oppositional to Kazakhstan as Russia's ally. The media with great pleasure post photos of how the guys in the balaclava "packed" meeting participants.
The question of quantity and quality is left open, because, for example, as many as 50 people have gathered in Pavlodar. But one was detained - in fact, the organizer of the rally, the former deputy of parliament Serikbay Alibayev. The rest just talked and went their separate ways.
The June events in Aktobe caused a strange sensation. After the May events, all the security forces were put on high alert. And the special services "dug" without stopping. It is believed that the National Security Committee "got on the trail," and everything that followed afterwards is not an explicitly planned act, but an impromptu. And, if these people had not moved to action, then in a very short time they would have been in the hands of the National Security Committee. This, by the way, quite normally explains the preparation of speakers and their knowledge of goals and objectives. Let's say no preparation.
Everything that happened does not relieve responsibility for the not very impressive work of the security forces. There is only one justification - there is no such level of preparation as that of the Russian colleagues. But then forgive me, but who prevents to cooperate and learn from experience? Moreover, the Russian security forces paid for their experience with sweat and blood. And they have something to learn.
On the other hand, the main task of neutralizing the terrorists was accomplished. If you take the final, then it is what it should be: the terrorists have been destroyed, their goals and objectives have not been fulfilled. Victims ... We have already spoken about this above. Victims could be less.
What is happening behind the scenes of these events today is difficult to say. The Ministry of Internal Affairs does not like to advertise its work, but the fact that there were many detentions is well known. And there were both administrative and criminal cases.
The question of external or internal control, we do not even consider. If it is normal to link both facts of incidents, then the conclusion is the same - they worked under external control.
In general, everything looks rather strange. Let’s say so, if we raise the people, we must do it according to the pattern and color of revolutions in densely populated areas. That is, in the south. In the same Chimkent, for example.
The example is taken for a reason. Near Uzbekistan, where Islam is more canonical than in Kazakhstan. There and religious groups are not something more, there they are. Unlike Kazakhstan. Of course, they are also present in Kazakhstan, but ... at the level of the younger group of the kindergarten in comparison with the university.
To raise a wave on a religious basis, the north of Kazakhstan is absolutely unsuitable. And because of the small size of the population, and because of the heterogeneity of religions. Brought everything. And there are no such clearly expressed religious sentiments in the north. For the second time.
But if we talk about Aktobe, then there is one thing that is not in Chimkent. Border with Russia.
Perhaps this was the reason for choosing a place for rehearsal.
The KNB has been working off the very first case since 2011. It was probably in the colony of Aktobe that those who had been brought earlier were kept. No wonder that the terrorists' plans included the seizure of the colony and the release of the convicts held there.
Today, operations are carried out in the Aktobe region, people are detained in towns and cities, and work is underway. It is impossible to reproach the Kazakhstani security officials with excessive sluggishness, working out is underway. Results ... results will be. With time. Not all detainees are released, apparently, there is something to make a start from and with whom to work.
In general, the situation was peculiar. At the beginning, the authorities themselves gave a reason, without really explaining to the population the essence of land innovations. Than the opposition did not fail to take advantage. But the government immediately backtracked, regarding the protest moods, both with the help of explanatory work and involving security officials. Legally.
The flexibility of Nazarbayev’s policy has always been hard to follow. But in this case, the authorities reacted as quickly as possible and without excessive rigidity. Obviously, admitting their blunders.
And then religion went into action. More precisely, religious fanatics.
According to Kazakhstani departments, today the number of the same Salafi is estimated at 13-15 thousand. Compared with the general population - a drop in the ocean. But as a base for initial movements is enough. At the end of the "zero" years was an experiment to create a youth Salafi movement. The experiment failed. As a result, Salafists in Kazakhstan began to gradually oppress the authorities, but the religious movement itself was not banned. Moreover, it has not yet been hit, which is rather strange.
In general, unlike Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan is a weakly religious country. And, as strange as it sounds, there is no religious fanatic from the Kazakh. And because there was no proper preparation, and because of the internal world order.
And so it happened that when independence came, the Kazakhs were an outsider in matters of religion. When the USSR was what to do, and when there was no empire, and it turned out that it was necessary to do something in the spiritual direction, then religious ministers were taught abroad at public expense.
Trained. But then Nazarbayev realized in time that the freebie should be closed. And shut down. Today, anyone who wants to become an imam and study in Egypt or Saudi Arabia can still do it. At your own expense. Which, by the way, does not give him the right to work with the flock. For this, you still have to go through ... certification, or something ...
In general, there are radical religious organizations in Kazakhstan. But not at such a level that it was possible to talk about internal conflicts on a religious basis.
The events of June 6, all the same out of the ordinary. Not only because the attack on weapons shops and military unit. Here, by the way, one can trace the handwriting of Russian Caucasian gangs from the recent past. It is very similar to the events in Ingushetia, Chechnya, Dagestan. It is likely that the then direct executors now play the role of instructors, but the methodology of actions has not changed at all.
13 killed terrorists, 6 killed soldiers and civilians, order 50 injured. Could be worse. And much worse. But no matter how they criticized the actions of the security forces, they coped with their task.
Another question is how far the organizers of the action were interested in its success. Proceeding from the fact that local radical fanatics “worked”, who initially could not count on the support of the population (as events showed), under external control or not, it can be said with certainty that no one counted on success.
Having carefully studied the materials about the incident, we can conclude that the chance was insignificant. The attackers were not enough even for the hypothetical control of the city, even taking into account the presence of (possible) like-minded people in the colony.
However, two dozen extremists turned out to be quite enough to test the script. The likelihood that the participants of the action will be destroyed by all the opposition, was great. Security forces in Kazakhstan may not be as professional as their Russian counterparts, but they are able to act toughly. So to achieve at least some success, or it is trivial to survive - the attackers did not have such an opportunity initially. Plus a complete lack of personal preparation for such actions.
But who, except for relatives and friends will begin to feel sorry for fanatics? And for those behind the events and even more so, the question of "cannon fodder" is not a question at all. It is obvious.
And to see how far the attackers will be able to realize the plans that have been developed, how the security forces in Kazakhstan will react to all of this is the most important result of the operation. There is a certain certainty that this was the main thing, and not the desire to arm a certain number of fanatics, to release a few dozen prisoners and so on. The study of the capabilities of the security forces is the main goal. And she was, unfortunately, executed. And people died. The rest are elements of intimidation and destabilization, hysteria in some media is a second time.
Can we expect to continue? Can and should be. Moreover, the events of 5 June revealed not very good readiness of law enforcement agencies for the sudden appearance on the street of an armed crowd. It is clear that the conclusions will be made, and quite quickly. This is the essence of the rule of Nazarbayev. Reacting and reacting effectively is the key to success in the war that actually knocked at the gates of Kazakhstan.
It is good when there are allies in the war. Syria showed it clearly and clearly. Real allies, not speaking. And there is such an ally.
After all, everything that destabilizes the situation in Kazakhstan is also a problem for Russia. And we, to all existing, have another common problem - Islamic radicalism. And he can be defeated only by working hand in hand. Today's day shows the whole world that terrorism is extra-territorial. The manual may be located somewhere in Qatar or Saudi Arabia, instructors in any of the neighboring countries or even in Kazakhstan itself, and performers ... Performers are a headache for any country.
Yes, what happened in Aktobe is an internal affair of Kazakhstan. But at the same time, and external business for Russia. Kazakhstan should not be locked in its own borders, on the contrary. These events, both May and June, should push the relevant structures in Kazakhstan to work more closely with their Russian colleagues to solve common problems. The Russian experience of counter-terrorism operations and the prevention of terrorism may be a panacea for Kazakhstan’s problems.
I express my deep appreciation to our reader Kasym for the information provided and the adjustment of understanding of the situation.