Military Review

Both crime and error


If toddlers were interested in politics, even they would give out unmistakable predictions about the next round of negotiations in the Minsk format. Starting last year in Paris, where Merkel and Hollande sternly pointed out Poroshenko to the correctness of the Russian position regarding the need to fulfill the signed agreements, rather than reinvent their own Ukrainian interpretations, Kiev is engaged in outright sabotage.

Not only Europeans, but also Americans were unable to break the reluctance of the Ukrainian authorities to implement the peace plan. Neither the threat to deprive of funding, nor the promise to lift sanctions from Russia helped.

At first, in Kiev, they do not fully believe that the West will be able to quit them. Their confidence is no longer as strong as it was a couple of years ago. But, nevertheless, the Kiev authorities continue to seriously overestimate the importance of the Ukrainian project for the West. In particular, they do not understand that the West needed not any Ukraine, but a capable one, and critically failed to take into account the time factor. Any project can be implemented only in a certain period of time. People say that "road spoon for dinner."

Second, the no matter how painful and even deadly for Ukraine is the deprivation of funding, no matter how offensive Kiev “European integrators” suddenly see the EU shaking their long-stretched Russian hand over their heads, but for the regime leaders their own shirt is closer to the body. Even if they did not study the example of Somalia and South Sudan, they intuitively understand that the population can die out and the state crumble, but some leading representatives of this state can become rich in parallel and feel very good. At the same time, the beginning of the implementation of the Minsk agreements carries the danger of physical liquidation for the top of the regime.

Even Russian patriots love to build theoretical constructions that suggest that impoverished and endangered Ukraine is able to stabilize and exist forever, by growing radishes in private plots and heating of country houses by dung.

Interested Ukrainian politicians and experts are even more optimistic in this regard. The same people who three years ago claimed that the people would not tolerate the “corruption regime” of Yanukovych, since life does not improve at a rapid pace, now no less zealously prove that the corruption regime of Poroshenko, in which life is rapidly deteriorating, the people are willing to endure This is pleasing, since the climate in Ukraine is better than in Yakutia.

In general, when there is no way out, people prefer to hope for the best and are afraid of making sharp movements that can destroy the already shaky Ukrainian power structure.

Therefore, neither Russia, nor Germany, nor France, nor the United States, nor all of them together, will succeed in breaking the stubbornness of Ukrainian politicians. They rightly believe that as long as the authorities in Ukraine, at least nominally, are in their hands, no serious sanctions (even the confiscation of foreign property) threaten them. If they lose power, they can lose not only assets, but also life.

The fact that Washington, Moscow or the Franco-Germans will send an army, they do not believe - who should conquer the ashes in which they turned Ukraine? And their own Nazis are afraid of fire. Militants are the only real power in Ukraine. Neither the police, nor the army, much less the people (even its maydanny part) will not protect the ruling camarilla hated by everyone from armed to teeth, well-organized, having a branched structure and infiltrated into the power structures of the Nazi insurgents (the Azov regiment and its "civil corpus "- the most prominent, but not the only example).

Since the leaders of the Ukrainian regime do not play chess, but in politics, they are not formally obliged to make moves under the conditions of zugzwang. So they try to do nothing. Mantras about the “freezing” of the conflict in the Donbas, heard from Kiev from the beginning of 2014, changed the sign from minus to plus. If earlier Russia was accused of wanting to freeze the conflict in order to have a lever of pressure on Ukraine, now Kiev itself declares that it would be better to leave everything as it is until better times.

All requirements of Western partners to start at least imitation of the implementation of the peace process are ignored. All repeatedly postponed the start of the process of constitutional amendments have passed. In the position of Kiev, nothing changes. And it will not change. The level of intellectual security of the regime does not allow not only to look for a third way out, among the two bad ones, but even to foresee the results of one’s own inaction.

The fact is that in politics the absence of a move is also a move, so passivity does not improve Kiev’s position, but worsens it, since the Ukrainian authorities voluntarily abandoned the initiative and switched to a response to external stimuli. Strategically, this position is absolutely losing even for a player with absolute resource superiority. For Ukraine, the resource base of which is so vanishingly small that it is already beginning to strive for negative values, this is a sure and quick collapse.

Consider only aspects related to the Minsk agreements. What did Kiev have at first?
The coordinated position of the world community, which stated that the DPR / LPR is a part of Ukraine, which is obliged, albeit under special conditions, to return to its constitutional space. There was only one difficulty - by the time the Minsk agreements were reached, Kiev had already managed to make war in the Donbass, thousands of people had already died, cities and enterprises had been destroyed, thousands had taken weapon. Between Kiev and the DPR / LPR, in addition to the initially existing ideological abyss, blood, hatred and mistrust were laid. In order to begin to overcome the consequences of civil conflict, the Minsk Agreement provided for:

- withdrawal of heavy weapons;
- gradual dilution of troops of the parties;
- exchange of prisoners in the "all for all" format;
-amnesty to all combatants;
-the lifting of the economic blockade of the Donbass;
-the renewal of its budget financing;
-Restoration of destroyed at the expense of Kiev.

Only then should the constitutional process begin and only at the last stage, after the provision of security guarantees absolutely complete with the Donbass, could Kiev have the opportunity to participate in the political processes taking place in the region, and also formally, by incorporating the power structures of the DPR / LNR into the general Ukrainian, get control above the border. It was not a victory of one of the parties, but a compromise, which allowed to formally preserve the territorial integrity of Ukraine, as of the beginning of April 2014 (without Crimea).

The Ukrainian authorities were given the opportunity to get out of a state of civil conflict without territorial losses, by reducing the weight of the central government, transferring basic powers to the regions and establishing joint control over administrative mechanisms, controls and foreign policy by pro-Western and pro-Russian forces.

At the same time, all those who illegally took up arms (on both sides) could not fear criminal prosecution. The exceptions were crimes against humanity and war crimes. Since they are subject to international criminal prosecution without a statute of limitations, any guarantees for them cannot be absolute, since the prosecution may be initiated in another country and after a long period of time (for example, Spain began criminal prosecution of Pinochet). But at that time, the number of people who could be subjected to persecution under these articles was less than half a thousand people on both sides, and less than a hundred of the most prominent activists, as well as senior Kiev officials and officers of the armed forces who gave up illegal orders.

This is not to say that this plan was easy to implement. But, according to such a scheme, civil wars stopped, stretching for decades and taking hundreds of thousands of lives. Obviously, the Ukrainian crisis could be withdrawn from the acute phase according to the same scheme. And then, in the framework of political struggle, the future of Ukraine could be multivariate, the main thing is that the solution would be reached without blood, through long negotiations and within the framework of the constitutional process.

It would hardly have been possible to preserve its unity, but the variant of the Czechoslovak divorce is clearly preferable than the Yugoslav one.

As we know, Kiev formally accepted the Minsk plan, but in reality it sabotaged. Moreover, the Ukrainian leadership and the media, inadequately assessing what is happening and counting on unconditional support from the West, as well as the imminent collapse of Russia, launched a campaign to discredit the Minsk agreements. They were presented to Ukrainian society as a military trick that allowed them to gain time and better prepare for war. Virtually any supporter of the execution of Minsk was declared a traitor. The year of such propaganda closed for Kiev the possibility of changing the position. The authorities are no longer able to explain to the people why he (the people) suffered so much, if what was a betrayal yesterday is today a vital necessity.

But Kiev has driven itself into another trap. Even if we ignore the fact that low-intensity military actions, including shelling of residential areas of the cities of Donbass, continued all this time, which means that the gap in Donbass’s hatred for Ukraine did not decrease, but grew, we must take into account that Donbass simply could not live in complete economic conditions. blockade. Already by the autumn of 2014, a humanitarian catastrophe broke out in the territories of the DPR / LNR, which only massive humanitarian supplies from Russia allowed to reduce the urgency. However, in order to finally overcome its effects, the DNR / LC needed to restore its own economy.

Similarly, it was necessary to recreate the administrative vertical, reanimate public utilities, restore the work of schools and universities. It was necessary to register births and deaths, issue diplomas, certificates and passports.

Provided that Ukraine would start the implementation of Minsk, all these processes would occur in its legal field and with its participation. But Kiev categorically refused such an approach, hoping that the population in the DPR / LNR would not withstand the difficulties and fall in love with Ukraine that killed it.

As a result, the republics were forced to actually integrate into the ruble zone. Their foreign trade (even with Ukraine) is also carried out through Russia (albeit with the use of the “Ossetian window”). They could not get the issuance of Russian passports, but began to issue their own documents, in fact, recognized by Russia. Over the past year, Donbass imperceptibly technically departed from Ukraine further than as a result of military actions. And each new step increased the number of difficulties in its reintegration into the Ukrainian legal space.

War hardened people, but practice stories testifies that such bitterness is relatively quickly surmountable after the onset of peace. But Kiev’s refusal to implement the peace plan led to the creation of a new system divorced from Ukraine. In fact, the same thing happened with the republics of the USSR, after the collapse of the Union. In the first couple of years, the political and economic systems of the new states did not differ much. At first, people didn’t notice any boundaries and citizenship could be changed simply by moving from city to city. It seemed that a simple political decision was enough, and the next day a single country would reappear.

But gradually, each state has developed its own legal system and, one fine day, it became clear that even with a strong desire to implement even economic integration initiatives, it is not so simple. Too many conflicting private and corporate interests appeared.

Here and Donbass imperceptibly for Kiev from the self-proclaimed state became unrecognized. The difference in one word. But, while the republics only fought off the volunteer battalions, continuing to preserve the Ukrainian administrative vertical, Ukrainian documents, the Ukrainian financial system, etc., they were actually part of Ukraine, which did not recognize the legitimacy of the Kiev authorities. That is, the change of power in Kiev, or the ability to achieve recognition of its legitimacy (albeit at the expense of serious concessions) easily turned the independent republics into autonomous regions of federal Ukraine.

As soon as the republics created new political, military, financial and economic structures, divorced from Ukraine and focused on Russia, a huge number of private and corporate interests arose, for which the restoration of Ukrainian power, even on the basis of confederative relations, became unacceptable. The funny thing is that these interests are present not only in the DPR / LPR and not only in Russia, but also in Ukraine and even in the EU and the USA, whose structures occupy the place left by the Donbas in the Ukrainian market.

For one and a half years of sabotage of the Minsk process, Ukraine itself made it difficult for the republics to return to the same legal space as Kiev, and at the moment has made this almost impossible.

The best substantiation of the last thesis is another sharp change in the position of the West during the last unsuccessful meeting of the foreign ministers of the "Norman Four". It was openly stated to Kiev that he had exhausted the credit no longer with trust, but with the patience of his European partners, that he had one last chance to start to fulfill Minsk urgently and that if he did not use this chance the West, at whose disposal “only ten small minutes "" strips off responsibility for the life of Your Highness. "

Such a tough public demonstration of the usually streamlined West (which, with Yanukovych two hours before his overthrow and prepared murder, continued to be flattering) was caused not only by irritation by arrogant Ukrainian sabotage, but to a greater extent by the understanding that the process of Ukraine’s disintegration and rejection of the DPR and LPR from it went so far that the “ten little minutes” in fact has already expired and the “life of Your Highness” is not worth a penny.

The Kiev regime managed to commit both a crime (by starting a civil war) and a mistake that is worse than the crime itself. He self-isolated and proceeded to self-destruction.
31 comment
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  1. Andrey K
    Andrey K 19 May 2016 10: 29
    Both crime and error ...
    Ukraine itself is a mistake - 404 country request
    In a political sense, it cannot a priori bring peace to the Donbass - this power has emerged from the abyss of a coup d'etat and an alien, ideologically imposed from outside negative
    Accordingly, it does not aim to integrate all political movements, all opinions aimed at the common development request
    Now her task is to sabotage the Minsk process, delay the decisions made by intermediaries, simply because the beneficiary of all this mess remains outside the scope of the negotiation process request
    The killer cannot go into the house of the murdered one and say: now we will choose how we will continue to live. He will either kill witnesses or try to force him to live according to his Jesuit laws negative
    My personal, private opinion - nothing, all this Minsk talk will not end negative
    There will be a continuation of the agony of the Kuevsky regime, followed by the resumption of hostilities request
    And I see the result as follows: Donbass will legally separate from this used Ukraine, having previously expanded the territory to the administrative borders that existed before the conflict began good
    1. Vend
      Vend 19 May 2016 10: 37
      Quote: Andrey K
      Both crime and error ...
      Ukraine itself is a mistake - 404 country request

      Not Ukraine is a mistake, but the creation of a state is a mistake. And it turns out that all these statesmen were mistaken. Ukraine is good as a territory within the state.
      1. Bobxnumx
        Bobxnumx 19 May 2016 10: 54
        You can’t try to please anyone, even to some extent, congenial people, giving out YOUR EARTH.
      2. Karasik
        Karasik 19 May 2016 10: 55
        Excellent analytical material, bravo author! Another conclusion from the article: where are the separatists in fact, in Kiev or in the Donbass? Who deliberately "separated" the country? The answer is obvious.
        1. avt
          avt 19 May 2016 14: 50
          Quote: Karasik
          Wonderful analytical material, bravo author!

          request Well, yes. The author is even witty in constructing his thoughts - his presentation is pleasantly perceived. That's just .... this has already been said about how much in Russia, but for the great Ukrainians ..... not horse feed. Because to teach fools - only to spoil. I’ve watched Ukrainian broadcasts and .... the campaign of the Karasevryaknokovtuns propagates there by budding wassat Almost in tune with them - tse zrada. This is not treated at home and with a visit to a psychiatric clinic, it is necessary to put it in a clinic - to call a bed and medically .... rectally, well, like Hasek in Schweik, while instead of Salo they dropped it! cystic fluid from the mouth does not go, washing Svidomo out of the whole body.
    2. vovanpain
      vovanpain 19 May 2016 10: 45
      A very high-quality article and analytics, but how many more this bloody Potroshenko will kill people and what it turned into painful to see Ukraine. negative
    3. The comment was deleted.
    4. lis-ik
      lis-ik 19 May 2016 10: 50
      So actually no one in Russia or in Europe seriously accepted the Minsk agreements. The opportunity was given for a respite from LDNR and the postponement of the defeat of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, and the main goal, both for the USA and Europe, was to freeze the conflict before the elections in the USA and coming in Germany and France, with the opportunity to shift the solution to the next administration. Actually for this, Nuland flew to Russia. Kiev doesn’t seem to know what to do at all, and so it’s bitten bit, freezing for them is also quite an acceptable scenario, so that if hostilities resume, it’s obviously not from the filing of an allegedly elected government.
      1. kepmor
        kepmor 19 May 2016 12: 13
        Not only Kuevskaya, but the Kremlin do not really know how to swim out of this whirlpool!
        And as a consequence of the "mental stupor" - joint useless attempts with the Americans to "freeze" the situation in Novorossiya. And the author is right that the real force, the Bandera-Nazis, with completely frostbitten towers, put and will put the "big one with the device" on all the "numbered Minsk".
        By and large, this problem (Ukraine) had to be dealt with for the past 25 years, and even more so in the summer and autumn of 2013, when it was still possible to crush this bastard in the bud!
        But no, our unfortunate strategists from Putin’s administration slept all over, and now they’ve got terror territory similar to IS on the side.
        But everything could be very different ....
        1. The comment was deleted.
        2. lis-ik
          lis-ik 19 May 2016 13: 47
          We slept for a long time, even under Khrushchev’s amnesty, if we served, then you know how we differ in combat units from Ukrainians, a lot of hatred and servility on their part, and complete indifference to ours. That would be something average to get a super soldier.
        3. Sotnik777
          Sotnik777 22 May 2016 09: 56
          And the author is right that the real force, the Bandera-Nazis, with completely frostbitten towers, put and will put the "big one with the device" on all the "numbered Minsk".
          By and large this problem (Ukraine) had to deal with the last 25 years

          by and large, if anyone does not know all of these Natsik last 25 and were grown by all the rulers and Janek including ...
    5. 79807420129
      79807420129 19 May 2016 10: 53
      Quote: Andrey K
      Ukraine itself is a mistake - 404 country

      But free and free wassat fellow wassatHere's how to get away from freedom. lol
    6. Pavel Tsybai
      Pavel Tsybai 19 May 2016 11: 15
      What is not the president of the world? And what arrangements to ask him?
    7. The comment was deleted.
    8. siberalt
      siberalt 19 May 2016 12: 27
      Parashenko did not allow himself to be trapped from a great mind. Now he decides in which case he will live longer. There are two options and both are total for him - it is either to implement the Minsk agreements or to sabotage them. But one minute you will not breathe, however laughing
  2. Abbra
    Abbra 19 May 2016 10: 31
    High-quality analytical and journalistic material. By the way, in the fall, Zakharchenko is going to hold (since Minsk is not moving) elections. After that, quite quickly, the LPR and the DPR can finally break away from the "Nenko". I am afraid that by this time, as a result of food riots, another Maidan will begin in Ukraine ...
  3. avvg
    avvg 19 May 2016 10: 35
    In my opinion, Kiev completely lost the Donbass, will no longer be able to regain any control over them.
  4. Yarik76
    Yarik76 19 May 2016 11: 01
    Donbass for Ukraine is lost - the question is in what limits, for me it’s so best on the Dnieper!
    1. Amurets
      Amurets 19 May 2016 11: 13
      Quote: Yarik76
      Donbass for Ukraine is lost - the question is in what limits, for me it’s so best on the Dnieper!

      Before the gift of Stalin. Gifts to Ukraine, see above in the comments.
  5. Yak-15
    Yak-15 19 May 2016 11: 07
    This is the result of errors.
  6. Bakht
    Bakht 19 May 2016 11: 08
    The analysis is excellent. R. Ishchenko, as always, is at his best. The value of this analysis is also high in that it is applicable to all conflicts without exception. Time is the most important factor. Almost the main one. Mistakes made at the initial stage of the crisis, then it is almost impossible to fix.
  7. 96423lom
    96423lom 19 May 2016 11: 11
    Kiev lost not only the Donbass. Only the habit of people to live in Ukraine preserves the likeness of the state.
  8. Igor39
    Igor39 19 May 2016 11: 15
    The West promises to punish everything in Ukraine, as in a joke:
    The orderly stands on the nightstand, the ensign comes in, he has a thin voice:
    -Duty officer on the way out!
    -prapor: You p ...., once again, so I shout at .... you!
    -day: Yes, you are Comrade Ensign, promise everything, but promise ... laughing
  9. techie
    techie 19 May 2016 11: 16
    I kept waiting for Ukraine to start implementing the Minsk agreements. I was interested in how the junta will do it, because I personally at least kill, I don’t see for them at least some decent way out of this ass. Until I waited. They see there in Kiev, too, do not know what to do. And they hang in a stupor and hope that the pan will come and all will be destroyed. And to the pan such moronic slaves are also too sick. In short, everything is going according to Putin's plan. Time works for us and against them.
    1. dauria
      dauria 19 May 2016 12: 03
      Time works for us and against them.

      Yeah, with one small correction, a huge chunk of Russian land generally floats further and further ... Or do you seriously consider the situation with Ukraine not an inglorious failure of our foreign policy, but a major victory?
      1. Igor39
        Igor39 19 May 2016 13: 00
        You can’t convince the Patriots of the failure to work in Ukraine, this is a victory and that’s it.
      2. unsinkable
        unsinkable 19 May 2016 17: 34
        Quote: dauria
        not the inglorious failure of our foreign policy, but a major victory?

        It was not a failure of politics, but not an opportunity to influence the situation due to the weakness of Russia. Yanukovych would not have rushed between Russia and the West if Russia had been strong. time, but still not as we would like. Plus to this (I agree) and the mediocrity of the then leadership of Russia. hi
  10. kotvov
    kotvov 19 May 2016 11: 18
    Not only Europeans, but also Americans could not break the reluctance of the Ukrainian authorities to implement a peace plan
    I can’t agree with this in any way. They’re right to the point that they don’t give a damn about the main curator. A hidden agreement: we (the Americans) are making statements, but you continue to bend the line that we announced earlier.
  11. 31rus2
    31rus2 19 May 2016 11: 41
    Dear, if someone expects some kind of logic from Ukraine or the West, then alas, you are mistaken and there is no need for any hopes for "pressure from Germany and France" on the regime, they are interested in "blackmailing Russia, both political and economic," here the essence of all the fuss, while they succeed, but then everyone will have problems, both the West and Russia, here it is already necessary to start negotiations about the fate of Ukraine itself, and not about "Minsk-2"
  12. Mitrich76
    Mitrich76 19 May 2016 11: 46
    It seems that the 404 government will not even begin to implement the agreements as long as radical national groups are the real force in the country. These are the very ones who brought the junta to power. And those who will also replace her with other "Fuhrer" if desired. Therefore, for the pig, its head is closer to the body.
    And the standard of living in the country - so very many passionately love their great people, and at the same time they hate the vile, ever-dissatisfied and capricious people.
  13. Polar Bear
    Polar Bear 19 May 2016 12: 09
    Regiment "Azov" and his "civilian corps" - most noticeablebut not the only one example...

    ... the most typical fascists. Their minds will be lit except with a flame in hell.
  14. avg-mgn
    avg-mgn 19 May 2016 12: 30
    Quote: avvg
    In my opinion, Kiev completely lost the Donbass, will no longer be able to regain any control over them.

    Donbas certainly will not return to the state that declared war on it for destruction. The question is when it will finally be freed from the shackles of Kiev, will become an independent state. If not for the flock of sympathizers of the Kiev junta, we have already finished this massacre long ago.
  15. atamankko
    atamankko 19 May 2016 12: 46
    No mistake - CRIME.
  16. surovts.valery
    surovts.valery 19 May 2016 13: 59
    For the sake of interest, please raise the comments of the Minsk agreements, immediately after their signing, here on the site, by the way, for many of us, incl. and now (see above) have commented. Continuous howl: "Putin leaked!"
    Of course, I understand that we are all smart "in hindsight", all those who sincerely "root" for the future of our Ukraine, but still we will be consistent.
  17. Air defense SSH
    Air defense SSH 20 May 2016 00: 42
    Regarding the 25-year-old omission of Ukraine, it’s easy to reason, but I am always tormented by the question where were these reasoners in the 90s? In which country? I am in Russia ... At 93m I quit the aircraft and came from Ukraine to the Moscow Region. Russia - two Maidan, two Chechnya, defaulted on black Tuesday and Friday, the IMF and the Union’s creditors are arresting foreign property, there’s not always money to buy, and gangs with weapons go out on the streets. Doesn't it remind you of anything? And of course we had to give up everything and engage in Ukraine (navel of the earth), to please her ...
    I agree only with the fact that Ukraine should not be separate from Russia and what kind of a funny nation is living near the edge ?!