Is there any chance for the regime of Bashar al-Assad to survive the "Arab winter"?
The events in North Africa, in the Middle East, seem to have moved into a kind of unstable equilibrium. First, time is needed for a fairly powerful “modernization” of a significant part of the Muslim world, which has gone through the first and second stages of reformatting (the overthrow of the authoritarian regime and elections with the strengthening of the position of the Islamists). This requires a revision of most of the pre-existing relations, agreements, to find a new balance of power, fixing a new order of things. Secondly, the Arab unrest has not yet exhausted its inertia, it has powerfully launched and gained too much progress to stop at what has been achieved.The first point concerns the countries where the revolution took place - Tunisia, Egypt, Libya, partly Yemen. Included in this group is ruined Sudan and Morocco, where the processes of strengthening the Islamists are underway. You can make in her and Iraq, the Americans are withdrawing troops and the future of this country is very vague. It is clear that Libya, Egypt, Yemen have not yet stabilized. Libya is balancing on the brink of a new phase of civil war. Thus, new unrest began in Benghazi, and a crowd of thousands of people chanting that a revolution had begun in Benghazi. Egypt is facing a serious destabilization. Saleh in Yemen seems to be going away, but at the same time behind-the-scenes fuss continues, the ex-president (he still retains power) leads the “trade” of his status.
In Syria, if the situation depended only on internal factors, the country could be stabilized. The regime of Bashar al-Assad retained the support of the elite, the army, all power structures, most of the population. Even the Kurds prefer to remain neutral, because the consequences of civil war and intervention may bring them more minuses than advantages. The authorities were able to withdraw most of the financial assets before the imposition of sanctions, in the same Lebanon. This allows you to maintain a certain economic stability.
Despite the fact that a number of points on the map of the country - Hama, Idlib, Homs, Deraa, Deir az-Zor - continue to seethe, official Damascus was able to prevent the creation of a terrorist springboard. The main center of military resistance of the rebels is located abroad in Turkey - from there come the troops of the Syrian Liberation Army (SOA). On the Turkish territory, the formation, training of combat units takes place, militants from other countries travel there.
It should be noted that the main problem of Turkey for a more active intervention in the affairs of Syria, including the creation of a "security zone" in the border areas of the SAR, is Iran. Ankara has a number of common interests with Tehran (the Kurdish problem, the Palestinian issue, a project for the supply of hydrocarbons to Europe, anti-Israel policy, etc.) and does not want to sharply break relations.
Although there is an opportunity to intensify the military efforts of Turkey against Syria. If in the near future the United States and Israel decide to strike at Iran, then Ankara may strike at the Syrian republic. The highest probability of such a strike in the next two to three months. If until the end of the winter 2012, Israel and the United States do not strike Iran, then Syria has considerable chances of resisting at least one more length of time.
In addition, Syrian parliamentary elections will have to be held by February-March. They are more likely to confirm the legitimacy of the Ba'ath Party and the regime of Bashar al-Assad. This will make attacks on Damascus from the West more difficult. In addition, the Syrian opposition is very heterogeneous, as the Coordination Council (it consists of well-known Syrian opposition), in principle, is ready to go to power after the elections, reconciled with the current authorities. A more radical Syrian National Council, it consists mainly of little-known immigrants in the country, is not popular in the country. Many Syrians consider its members "rats" traitors.
Therefore, without external intervention, Bashar Assad has quite good chances to resist. To do this, we must continue the line of splitting the Syrian opposition - squeezing the radicals hard and giving admission to the “moderate” power. Do not allow the emergence of the Syrian Benghazi, immediately suppressing attempts by gangs to gain a foothold in any city.
But the scenario of a powerful strike on Iran by Israel and the United States can turn all the calculations. There is no doubt that Israel can strike Iran. 12 December: Israeli Deputy Prime Minister Moshe Ya'alon announced that the Islamic Republic could create a nuclear weapon after a few months, it is therefore necessary to take emergency measures and stop the Iranian nuclear program. The politician also said that Tehran must be faced with a choice: survival or nuclear weapons. In his opinion, Western countries should come out in a united front against the Islamic Republic of Iran, applying real sanctions, while maintaining the possibility of a military strike. Ya'alon believes that the Iranian atomic program is a problem of the whole world, and the Islamic Republic is dangerous without nuclear weapons.
Israeli Defense Minister Ehud Barak, speaking at a conference in Vienna, said that the time had come "for immediate, concerted, paralyzing" punitive measures against Iran. And they should be directed against the oil and financial sectors of the Islamic Republic. He also predicted that the power of Assad in Syria will fall within a few weeks.
Ankara will be forced to intensify its efforts on the Syrian direction and this may result in a war between Syria and Turkey, possibly with the participation of a number of Sunni monarchies. If the development of events follows this line, the Assad regime is doomed.
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