Military Review

Transdniestria at the forefront

In recent days, two thousand and fifteen, the media have often and often talked about the Pridnestrovskaia Moldavskaia Respublika. In the face of increasing international instability, this outpost of the Russian world remains the front edge of the defense, the farthest from the near borders. Therefore, the blow from his loss will be especially sensitive for Russia. If you look at the conditions that Chisinau has put forward for Tiraspol for many years in a row, there is a feeling of deja vu, because before our eyes there is practically one-on-one “Minsk agreements”, that is, capitulation. The only difference is that Moldova theoretically admits the possibility of cultural autonomy for the Russian-speaking regions as a bait, and Ukraine denies Donbas even such a concession.

In political or military-political forecasting, there is only one thing that is impossible to predict for sure - these are terms. They can always be called only approximately, since control points can be shifted in one direction or another by a large number of unpredictable factors. The trends are simpler: they have a strict direction, which sooner or later leads to a certain result. Two trends will influence the fate of the Pridnestrovian Moldavian Republic in 2016.

The first trend is directly related to the implementation of the Minsk agreements in the Donbas. In Kiev, in the next few months, they expect to take control of the border and thereby put an end to stories DNR and LC, then release the army for the next war. For Tiraspol, this does not bode well.

The second trend is a loop of economic blockade, which is tightening around the TPR all the time. This is recognized not by some marginals, but by the Transnistrian authorities themselves at the highest level. It is clear that this cannot go on forever.

What to expect if Kiev decides to help Moldavia restore "territorial integrity" by force weapons? Three components are important in planning any military campaign - goal, time and resources. If you have a goal and time, but there are no resources, you can not even try to start a campaign, because you will not see victory. Similarly, with a lack of time, it does not matter if it is time to prepare for war or to the fighting itself. And finally, the goal. If there are resources and time, but there is no goal in the war, or this goal is inadequate, then the defeat is also not far off. People just do not agree for a long time to risk and die is not clear why.

President Poroshenko has a goal, or rather a goal. This is the elimination of the independent Donbass, and the forceful return of the Crimea. More precisely, it is certainly not his goal, but nonetheless. The intermediate goal between the Donbas and the Crimea is likely to be Transnistria. There is a logic here, but this logic is dictated by the foreign policy of the United States, and not the national interests of Ukraine. If Poroshenko would have been more independent in making decisions, he, of course, would have differently built his policy: initially he would have tried peacefully to negotiate with the Donbas and would not block the TMR, which in the future could be reunited with Ukraine, with which , unlike Russia, at least there is a common border. But Poroshenko is not independent, and not even partially, but completely.

If the American factor could be thrown out of the equation, then it would soon become clear that for the war against the TMR, Ukraine has no military reasons either. A tiny contingent of Russian peacekeepers, even in conjunction with the Transdniestrian Army, does not threaten Nezalezhnaya Square.

Actually, after the first shots of the new war on the Dniester, the choice of Russia will be extremely simple. Either she resigns herself to another bloody foreign policy slap in the face and gives her anklav and his peacemakers to be torn apart. Or, in anticipation of such an outcome, official Moscow will have to withdraw its peacekeepers in advance, at the same time bringing the Transdnistrian Moldavian Republic under its analogue of the “Minsk Agreements”. Perhaps an element of such a path is the decision taken by the European Union to extend the free trade agreement with Moldova from 1 in January to 2016 in Transnistria. Without this agreement, the unrecognized republic would have to be bad.

“We could lose approximately 46 − 48 percent of the external market. Approximately 10 thousands of people could lose their jobs, ”REGNUM quoted the words of the PMR President Yevgeny Shevchuk. It is clear that Brussels gave Tiraspol a breath of air. The question is what he demanded from the Transnistrian authorities and from Russia in return. It is possible that during 2016, we can see TV spots about the hasty withdrawal of Russian peacekeepers.

There is a third scenario ... war. The war is not only with Moldova, but also with Ukraine, through which land or air corridors will break through. Such an outcome would mean new sanctions that Russian officials are so afraid of. So, the choice is not easy, but it will have to be done in the foreseeable future. Otherwise, one of the options will be automatically selected - according to the laws of history.

Ukraine can not fight. Official Kiev is already breathing in the back of Saakashvili, who “unexpectedly” cheerfully began to dig under the entourage of the current president with his anti-corruption agenda. In this noble endeavor, the tireless Georgian enjoys the direct support of the Americans. On the other side of the bench, various outright Nazis sit, who are also not in a hurry to write off - moreover, their threats to the authorities are becoming more and more unequivocal. So the ruling class in Ukraine today has clearly understood the simple signal that is sent to the world from Washington: “America is the absolute source of power and financial resources. We can overthrow any government in any country. We can split off any part of it from your country and even break it up into separate subjects. We want to - and overthrow any ruler, and not just overthrow - we will deprive our heads. Do as we say if you don't want problems! ”

The post-Maid of Ukraine leadership has its reasons to stir up conflicts. The liquidation of both the Donbas and Transnistrian Moldavian Republic will give the oligarch regime the resources and political stability that are necessary for the general offensive in the Crimea. This is a patriotic wave, and the readiness of the population for new victims for the sake of victory, as well as the influx of volunteers to the front. In other words, if in the target-resources-time coordinate system the final goal is the war for the Crimea, then having overcome the remnants of Novorossia and Transnistria, Kiev will spend some uncritical length of time, but will receive huge military and political resources in return.

So far, the bleeding Donbass covers not only the Crimea, but also Transnistria. As long as people's republics exist, Tiraspol still has time to think, to choose between the whip right now and ... the whip, but a little later - in the case of voluntary surrender.

So the situation is clear. What should Russia do? The complex of military-political measures adequate to the threat should already be ready in the relevant departments. Shooting is not accepted to respond to the prohibition of sweets and tomatoes. Such behavior is a sign of weakness, and weakness in international politics does not forgive anyone. For the Russian Federation, the surrender of both Donbass and Transnistria threatens to lose face both in the international arena and within the country, and in this case the borders of the actual Russian world skukozhatsya to the national borders of the Russian Federation. Well, really, do not consider the Russian world Russian bases in Syria, Armenia or Tajikistan? Worse, the fall of the pro-Russian enclaves can only provoke Russia's neighbors to take active action against it, as the not-so-successful Finnish campaign of the Red Army convinced Hitler that the Soviet Union was “a colossus with clay feet.”
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  1. Alex_Rarog
    Alex_Rarog 5 January 2016 08: 10
    Again, elven ears stick out ... Happy New Year, gentlemen) and mattresses are not covered with tires ....
    1. oldseaman1957
      oldseaman1957 5 January 2016 13: 38
      For the Russian Federation, the surrender of both Donbass and Transnistria threatens with loss of face
      - I consider Lavrov to be the smartest man, and don't put a finger in his mouth in international affairs. Therefore, they probably calculated ALL the options and prepared (Shoigu in the subject!) Worthy answers to them. And no other way!
  2. Same lech
    Same lech 5 January 2016 08: 22
    So the situation is clear. What to do to Russia? A set of military-political measures adequate to the threat should already be ready in the relevant departments.

    Well, in general, the spring is getting tighter and tighter and the situation is being driven into the time frame and when the explosion happens, ALLAH only knows ... so we are waiting for further events.
  3. VB
    VB 5 January 2016 09: 15
    20 th
    How the Foreign Ministry will not get out with its laurel mediocrity, and Russia will be pushed into the war with the outskirts from beyond Transnistria without fail. There simply will not be a way out, and America knows this very well, and the wick is in their hands. Russia is absolutely not ready for a full-scale war, even ammunition is not manufactured enough. Stalin managed to mobilize the economy, and the current leadership not only failed, but also failed. They all must leave, otherwise 1915 will be waiting for us. And it is interesting, did the people of Russia give permission to the guarantor for the supply of free gas to the Kherson region? Did he have a survey? Maybe he paid from his own pocket? And gasified the whole of Russia? And the electricity in the Crimea in full comes from the outskirts, including? And if in the Crimea they will freeze, then the outskirts will supply electricity and gas to the Crimea? And has the outskirts already paid off debt to Gazprom and Russia? Do old people have enough pensions for an elementary fill of food? They do not crowd in networks, do not eat up samples? It is disgusting to see how the temporary workers dispose of Russia's national treasure without demand.
    1. c3r
      c3r 6 January 2016 06: 59
      Comments are the same as the article, thoroughly provocative! Of course, if you were Lavrov, you would not be slow to show your talents and ... get involved in a fight with Ukraine. And citizen Kabardin escalates the situation. Yes, they sit there in Kuev and wake up liquid. It’s hard for them to cope with Novorossia, but he’s talking about the Crimea! Let the chupachups climb up enough to suck on everyone. When attacking Pridnestrovie, the pura will make the same mistake as Srakashvili. If there are no peacekeepers in the Donbas and there were none, then with Transnistria everything is diametrically opposite! And as for Genechesk, I think when conducting a public poll or referendum, people would give the guarantor permission to supply. Only if they did, they would all freeze. Strong and kind, it's better than just kind! For provocation and the spread of alarmist moods ... minus!
      1. sa-ag
        sa-ag 7 January 2016 17: 29
        Quote: c3r
        And as for Genechesk, I think when conducting a poll or referendum, people would give the guarantor permission to supply.

        But this is some kind of strange - to conduct polls about the adoption of this or that decision, such as the Novgorod veche or what? In general, the electorate at the elections delegates power to its chosen one precisely so that he, the chosen one, can make decisions on this or that occasion without distracting the people from his activities, in which case all these polls "a la veche" are just a way to remove with responsibility, this in turn gives rise to other questions in relation to, so to speak, the people's choice
  4. Alexart
    Alexart 5 January 2016 10: 37
    Quote: VB
    Do old people have enough pensions for an elementary fill of food? .

    It depends on what old people.
    My parents are simple pensioners with simple pensions.
    They live quite worthily.
    I will not say that every year in the south.
    But they do not live in poverty, as you draw here.

    The size of the pension you know, compassionate are you ours?
    Or only from the newsagents have been scooped up?
    KAPITANUS 5 January 2016 11: 34
    Yes, everywhere is sad now.
  6. sagitta25
    sagitta25 5 January 2016 11: 37
    Actually, after the first shots of a new war on the Dniester, the choice for Russia will be extremely simple. Or she resigns herself to another bloody foreign policy slap in the face and gives her enclave and her peacekeepers to pieces.
    I want to remind you that Transnistria voted in a referendum to join Russia !!! But Russia dosihpor did not vote for the annexation of the PMR to its territory, if they did not vote, then someone is favorably in such a position ... Personally, I think it is easier to steal the loot that is allocated for the PMR every year.
    1. c3r
      c3r 6 January 2016 07: 12
      No, it will be easier to steal when you join. This is another enclave, moreover, more problematic than Kaliningrad. You will need to deliver goods there, but you won’t tell me. And besides, infrastructure is needed, border guards and the army are needed, taxes need to be collected, elementary communication must be maintained stable and preferably closed, everything is tied to Ukraine and Moldova and, as in the case with Crimea, cable routes will not be launched along the bottom. The referendum is good, but also it is necessary to think about the possibilities to ensure the implementation of his decisions, and if the burden is not for you you will fall when walking!
  7. sagitta25
    sagitta25 5 January 2016 11: 49
    18 th
    There is a third scenario ... war. The war is not only with Moldova, but also with Ukraine, through which land or air corridors will break through.
    The territory is so small that there is nothing to break through) it is all shot at for departure from hyacinth. If Ukraine falls into the PMR, then it will capitulate in a few hours, in fact, they will not even have time to understand what happened. There is no military equipment, no connection, no aviation, logistics does not work properly, and the army is not there as such, they cannot rake even one battalion. If the Ukrainian army enters the PMR, it will capture everything without resistance because no one wants to resist.
    1. Lelek
      Lelek 5 January 2016 12: 50
      Quote: sagitta25
      If the Ukrainian army enters the PMR, it will capture everything without resistance because no one wants to resist.

      In the PMR, our Russian peacekeepers based on the UN mandate. Ssakashvilkin also reasoned like you did when you started the war in South Ossetia, and how did you end it? If in the PMR, as a result of the actions of the former Ukraine, its status will be violated and (God forbid) peacekeepers will suffer, then it will not seem to the violator a little - we have every right.
    2. Nagaibak
      Nagaibak 5 January 2016 15: 04
      sagitta25 "If Ukraine falls on the PMR, it will capitulate in a few hours."
      It's funny.)))
      sagitta25 "There is no military equipment, there is no communication, there is no aviation, the logistics does not work, and there is no army as such, they cannot even scrape one battalion."
      Even funnier.)))
      sagitta25 "If the Ukrainian army enters the PMR, it will capture everything without resistance, because no one wants to resist."
      Compared with the PMR, Ukraine does not have an army. And the PMR has it, they even carry out exercises, unlike your under-state. They pile you up anyway.
      1. sagitta25
        sagitta25 5 January 2016 16: 14
        Let's not do stupid things and face the truth. Ukroboronprom last year from all its armored factories produced repaired tanks only 316 units. In 2013, Ukraine did not hit the army. But they have been fighting for a year and a half and the factories have been working at full capacity. It is not necessary to beat oneself in the chest for nothing, it is pointless to beat; you just need to admit obvious facts. Even the shooters admitted that the Ukrainian army is building muscle. And the same shooter said that the Ukrainian army will soon be able to resist even with the Russian army.
        1. Nagaibak
          Nagaibak 5 January 2016 18: 23
          sagitta25 "In 2013, no army was beaten in Ukraine."
          Yeah))) ... and in 2014 you had an army.))) Not a single successful operation, only defeats and you still dream of something.
          sagitta25 "Ukroboronprom last year from all its armored factories produced only 316 repaired tanks."
          Wow))) ... and the DPR is recovering Ukropov’s military equipment at its factories.))) And you will find tanks and infantry fighting vehicles, guns, etc. In the LPR, they also don’t sleep, they restore it.
          I don’t see much muscle ... especially in terms of morale. Something to die for an egg and Poroshenko, especially no one is eager.)))
        2. Galan
          Galan 7 January 2016 19: 45
          "Ukroboronprom last year produced only 316 repaired tanks from all its armored factories."
          Is this taking into account refurbished in the DNI and LC or what?
        3. c3r
          c3r 7 January 2016 20: 37
          The Ukrainian army would have defeated the militias honestly would have won, and not with the Blitzkriegs (though obosra.n.s., they still get boilers). Incidentally, the militias are not slandering pears too, but are intensely engaged in combat training. And they have succeeded in doing this. And the Pura will not be able to fight the Russian army for a long time (if at all), as well as with any other army of a normal state! Squeak has not grown!
      2. sagitta25
        sagitta25 5 January 2016 16: 19
        Here is the comment of the shooter
    3. Sergey Polt
      Sergey Polt 5 January 2016 17: 13
      You in comparisons with any junta did not confuse? ...
    4. c3r
      c3r 6 January 2016 07: 18
      If at least one peacekeeper collapses and suffers (and he suffers), then Russia will have full moral right to accept the Mariupol, Dnepropetrovsk, Kherson, Nikolaev and Odessa (like forgotten nothing) regions along with Transnistria and New Russia, and you only have Sosinoviki mushrooms will go and lollipops!
  8. Ros64
    Ros64 5 January 2016 11: 51
    Good, thoughtful article - thanks to the author! The situation is painted and sorted out on the shelves. We'll see what will happen, but I think it's not worth hoping for a good way out of this situation. Judging by the situation in Donbass, we have already handed it over, we have imposed the dill, and the LPNR is told not to respond to provocations. Although the OSCE sees what is happening there, , but “no one sees anything.” And if Putin finally surrenders Donbass, then the same fate will befall Transnistria, and we will chew with ..., as if they would not add sanctions to us again!
  9. a housewife
    a housewife 5 January 2016 14: 14
    It is necessary to make sure that Ukraine was not up to the NDP. Either there was no Ukraine at all - as a country. They will not join Transnistria to Russia until the whole south of today's Ukraine is joined to Russia.
  10. 31rus
    31rus 5 January 2016 14: 59
    Dear, what choice, what are we talking about? Not Transnistria, but the whole of Russia at the forefront, what choice, what are we talking about, there is no alternative, only an allotted space for maneuver, this is known both in NATO and in the USA, therefore they only dream about how it could be, Russia will give an answer without reservation in the event of aggression and rebuff, but this is a serious war, not a border conflict, the development and consequences of which are not predictable, political concessions to the West will only increase appetite, therefore, these concessions will not be
  11. Jaros81
    Jaros81 5 January 2016 15: 24
    A tiny army of PMR + our peacekeepers ?. Even the PMR armed forces are superior in composition by 3 times, in reserve by 1,5. The guys from the army of Moldova are zilch. The Russian army smashed not such opponents.
  12. Megatron
    Megatron 5 January 2016 21: 37
    In Transdniestria, it is very efficient and, what is important, a well-motivated army, albeit not a large one. Against any rabble, such as great-ugrov, or, all the more, dummies, it will beat off perfectly.

    Moreover, peacekeepers are standing there under the UN mandate, Poroshenko is not quite a donkey, I think, using the example of Saki, I saw how such things end.
    Most likely there will be a retaliatory strike from three directions at once - Belgorod-Kharkov, from LDNR and Crimea.
  13. alecsis69
    alecsis69 6 January 2016 01: 19
    The whole article of Kabardin is built from the wrong message that Minsk is a drain of Donbas. There can be no right conclusions from the wrong message.
    UZBEK TASHKENT 6 January 2016 12: 22
    Minsk of course, in a sense, is unambiguous, but Minsk can be considered as an option as time. It is clear that Minsk is not beneficial to anyone (globally). But as an opportunity to prepare, it may well be. Do not make noise, adult uncles play chess.
  15. kitamo
    kitamo 6 January 2016 15: 50
    Quote: sagitta25
    Even the shooters admitted that the Ukrainian army is building muscle

    Well, if * even Strelkov * then, of course ...

    Quote: sagitta25
    And the same shooter said that the Ukrainian army will soon be able to resist even with the Russian army.

    how many hours will she resist, Strelkov did not say?
  16. Glagol1
    Glagol1 7 January 2016 02: 07
    vb - troll and provocateur.
  17. SevRubezh
    SevRubezh 7 January 2016 02: 44
    Well, what is it that Americans and the rest of the arrogant Saxons and Podsindniks saw in touching our peacekeepers in 2008, when rodents bent over in a few hours. In Crimea, we have enough grouping to break through the land and air corridor to the PMR in the case of an ahtung. The question is different - is it now necessary to get involved in an open war? At some points, I agree with the author of the article - Ukrainians are not independent in making decisions. Accordingly, if the Washington regional committee is given a command, Ukrainians and tilers (Moldavians), together with dummies, can trample down on Tiraspol.
  18. kunstkammer
    kunstkammer 8 January 2016 09: 41
    Poroshenko is intensively collecting resources to start a new blitzkrieg in Novorossia. And we unfortunately, we are helping them in this periodically and constantly - either gas is free, then discounts are some unjustified ...
    Moreover, Crimea itself is gasified by 60 - 70 percent.
    Given how the Nazi regime in Ukraine relates to any assistance from Russia, it would be better to spend these funds on the gasification of the Crimea and New Russia. Anyway, Russia will have to rebuild Donbass and Lugansk with its own funds.
    And while we feed the Nazi reptile for free.
  19. Prutkov
    Prutkov 8 January 2016 17: 22
    To attack Transnistria, Ukraine needs to solve a number of problems. First, if Transnistria is Moldova, then an attack on Transnistria is an attack on Moldova, if Transnistria is an independent state with a significant number of Russian citizens, then an attack on Transnistria is an act of aggression, with all its consequences. About the economy. What prevents Russia from accepting all goods from Moldova with Tiraspol certificate certificates? This will force Moldovans to register their companies in PMNR.
  20. Arkadiusz
    Arkadiusz 10 January 2016 04: 16
    Russian peacekeepers are in Transnistria under a ceasefire signed between the Russian Federation and Moldova. The UN has nothing to do with it. If one of the parties refuses the agreement, the peacekeepers will lose their status as such.
    Moldovans can annul the agreement and then the attack of Ukraine will not touch Russia in any way
    1. Toorik
      Toorik 11 January 2016 14: 06
      If Moldova could unilaterally and painlessly sow the agreement canceled ... it would have been done for a long time ....
      By your logic, the attack of Ukraine on the Crimea will not hurt the Russian Federation ...
  21. Arkadiusz
    Arkadiusz 12 January 2016 06: 56
    Russia recognizes the integrity and sovereignty of Moldova and has no complaints about Transnistria, unlike Crimea. And if something ever starts, the claims will be weak.
    And yes, when Moldova can quickly and painlessly cancel the agreement, most likely it will. Probably still she could not do this.