Military Review

True and unfulfilled: the CIA’s “fantastic” predictions

Fifteen years ago, the CIA tried to predict what the world would be like in 2015. The British newspaper The Telegraph analyzed the old report of the Central Intelligence Agency, dated 2000 year, and highlighted the come true and erroneous forecasts, as well as the fact that the experts completely missed.

True and unfulfilled: the CIA’s “fantastic” predictions

15 years ago, the CIA tried to predict what the world would be like in 2015. Looks like they made mistakes in their predictions. This was told by Lawrence Dodds in a British newspaper "The Telegraph".

In 2000, the CIA created a group of experts outside the agency whose task was the futuristic forecast up to the 2015 year.

Fifteen years have passed.

Many of the conclusions of those experts are indisputable, the journalist jokes. The water was still wet, sugar was still sweet, ethnic and religious tensions still plagued poor countries.

But what about eating cloned beef burgers? Or the union of North and South Korea?

In 2000, experts hired by the CIA correctly predicted the “explosion” of digital and mobile technologies that transformed the world. The Internet, the prospect of the universal spread of wireless communication with the help of hand-held devices and a large number of low-cost satellites flying at low altitudes, universal wireless cellular communications, which will lead to a global transformation of society unseen since the beginning of the industrial revolution - all this is true. The current smartphones that have spread all over the planet have seven times more processing power than the chess computer that once beat Garry Kasparov. And these smartphones fit in the palm of your hand.

The forecasts associated with the growth of network technologies have come true. The IT revolution has led to political consequences, as promised by futurologists.

In the Middle East, there will be a “web-connected opposition”, which has thrown new challenges to authoritarian regimes, experts said. And so it happened: the "Arab Spring" happened.

However, something else happened: the very same technologies created new opportunities for conflicts between large states. This was confirmed after the “Chinese and Russian cyber attacks against the United States” and the use of the Stuxnet computer virus by the United States to sabotage the Iranian nuclear program.

The CIA was "overly optimistic" about the consequences of the development of biotechnology. Private profiling of the genome and artificial cultivation of "spare organs" will become commonplace, experts said in the 2000 year. Animals will be cloned to provide humanity with meat, and terrorists will engage in genetic engineering to create new dangerous diseases.

Some of these predictions still seem fantastic.

Something, however, came true. Prices for the services of genomic masters have fallen sharply over the past five years. The forecast for genetically modified crops was also correct. Despite resistance to GM crops, they have spread throughout the world. 82% of the world's land is sown with modified soybeans, 68% - GM cotton and 30 percent - GM corn.

The experts' mistake was the forecast for Russia, the journalist points out.

Analysts assumed that Russia could “react painfully” to the loss of its superpower status and that it could use its gas reserves as a lever to regain its status. However, analysts believed that the “most likely outcome” would be a weak Russia, whose hands would be bound by international diplomacy. Russia will be able to influence world events only with the help of a veto in the UN Security Council.

It turned out otherwise. Putin "created a whole network of influence - from Greece to Syria, intervened in foreign wars, annexed new territories ..." And instead of the predicted 2500 nuclear warheads, he now has more than 8000.

Experts were mistaken with the prediction about the reunification of North and South Korea.

Another major mistake is the creation of a Palestinian state next door to Israel.

The report correctly stated that the world population will grow to 7 billion. and that growth will slow down, or even decline, in Russia and Eastern Europe. This is true: there are fewer people living in Russia today than in the 2000 year.

But not so in Africa. Instead of reducing the population due to the AIDS epidemic, more people are being born in sub-Saharan countries.

Regarding the demographic crisis in Western countries, the experts were right. The CIA had foreseen that the population in developed countries would age, leading to a slow crisis. Reducing the attitude of workers to retirees will create tension in the system of social services, the pension system and health care. Governments will seek to alleviate the problem through raising the retirement age, encouraging greater participation in women’s work and migrants. However, immigration will complicate political and social integration: some political parties will continue to turn society against migrants, protesting about the new burden on the social services system and the difficulty in adapting.

Sounds familiar? All this, the authors predicted correctly.

In terms of financial prospects, experts predicted a high level of growth throughout the zero years. And it came true. However, analysts believed that the global economy will show good momentum and sustainability up to 2015. The risk of financial crisis will be exposed only to developing countries that could not carry out liberal reforms.

In fact, today, experts are talking about the coming “bank collapse” in the United States, who were to blame for the “failure of the world economy” and even caused “a new conversation about the limits and wisdom of capitalism.”

The EU has been called by the forecasters "relatively peaceful and rich" (in 2015 year) and reached the stage of "final integration". Of course, this is far from the case.

Of the predictions about international terror, only “half the truth” has come true. Despite the fact that the CIA was worried about even more deadly terrorist attacks than those that occurred on September 9, 11, experts still could not imagine to what extent terrorism would rise on the planet.

The reality can be even worse than the ideas we have today, at the end of 2015. There is information about the use of "IG" chemical weaponsstolen from the Syrian government, as well as the creation of its own chemical weapons by militants.

The “Islamic State” has become such a complex terrorist organization that it is able to carry out and inspire attacks all over the world. Her bloody activities are funded by the smuggling of oil, the illegal sale of antiques and taxation.

And these are not just some felons. Unlike criminal gangs, IG is not just trying to finance itself; This structure “has its own apocalyptic ideology,” which puts these Islamists at the epicenter of the “last confrontation of Islam and the West.”

Will the experts risk issuing a report on what the year of the 2030 will be? Who will be the new hegemon there? And who will be on the cover of "Time"? And will there be a “Time”? Hey, CIA!

Observed and commented on Oleg Chuvakin
- especially for
31 comment
Dear reader, to leave comments on the publication, you must to register.

I have an account? Sign in

  1. Lyapis
    Lyapis 30 December 2015 06: 51
    And the moral in all this is that the science of futurology did not go much further than fortune-telling on coffee grounds, any station gypsy will give the analyst no worse, and in general, it makes no sense to make forecasts beyond a year. request
    1. S-kerrigan
      S-kerrigan 30 December 2015 07: 25
      Tell this to those who planned five-year plans (alas, they are already in the ground and will not hear you). Long shots are essential for quality jerks. And you also need to understand that the longer the plan, the less reliable it is. Therefore, you need to have not only "plan B", but also many further letters in alphabetical order.

      If something could not be done, then this is not the final reason for further refusals to implement. Russian people must be with a solid core.
      1. Just BB
        Just BB 30 December 2015 09: 09
        Forecasts and plans are "two big differences."
        Even in the conditions of one family it is "hard" to live without a plan, and the life of the state without it is stupidity!
        But lately, we are just being told: "The market will react" automatically "- stupidity, but very acclaimed
    2. Starover_Z
      Starover_Z 30 December 2015 12: 31
      And the paragraphs of the CIA report on its activities:
      well, and the terrorists will do genetic engineering for the sake of creating new dangerous diseases.

      Are they about US biological laboratories in the territories of the former Soviet republics?
  2. Great-grandfather of Zeus
    Great-grandfather of Zeus 30 December 2015 06: 57
    The fact that in these "predictions" came true, this is exactly what was planned and launched. I explain that the development of the Internet and it technologies is beneficial for the United States for total and secret control over the activities of mankind, which means that these technologies are useful and develop them. To Russia, we showed our unpredictability to Hitler and Napoleon ...
    1. CHILD
      CHILD 30 December 2015 16: 35
      Well, how can we predict us ... we sincerely do not know what we will have in six months))) ... our middle name is not certain))) ... Yes !! And we are no longer the first generation to be brought up this way ... .
  3. Good cat
    Good cat 30 December 2015 06: 59
    Yes, all forecasts, except for obvious ones, are past the point. Forecasts are an ungrateful thing.
    1. Lelek
      Lelek 30 December 2015 10: 07
      Quote: Good cat
      Forecasts are an ungrateful thing.

      Well, why? The main thing they (forecasters) guessed correctly - NEW 2016 WILL COME.

      Happy New Year to all!
  4. rotmistr60
    rotmistr60 30 December 2015 07: 15
    Now there are too many specialists in various forecasts. To give a forecast for 15 years ahead in the modern world is an idea designed for inspired people. But what has been done is done. The money was spent back in 2000, the forecast is tailored to the customer. Everyone is happy, except for those to whom the United States spoiled blood in 15 years and destroyed their country.
  5. Armored optimist
    Armored optimist 30 December 2015 07: 17
    As far as I remember the 90s, they then wanted to buy up all our archives in order to study the mysterious Russian soul and improve methods of working against us. Thank God not everyone sold it.
  6. Jarilo
    Jarilo 30 December 2015 07: 22
    In fact, today experts are talking about the upcoming “banking collapse” in the United States, which was to blame for the “failure of the world economy” and even caused a “new conversation about the limits and wisdom of capitalism

    American companies are greatly overvalued, the entire dollar market is a huge bubble that is about to burst, and everyone is pumping it and pumping it
    1. 0255
      0255 30 December 2015 10: 52
      Quote: Jarilo
      In fact, today experts are talking about the upcoming “banking collapse” in the United States, which was to blame for the “failure of the world economy” and even caused a “new conversation about the limits and wisdom of capitalism

      American companies are greatly overvalued, the entire dollar market is a huge bubble that is about to burst, and everyone is pumping it and pumping it

      The fact that the dollar is about to burst is also a forecast that has not come true for decades laughing
    2. dobr5919
      dobr5919 30 December 2015 11: 21
      Yeah, I’ve been listening to this since the mid 80s of the last century and hopefully ... Fools aren’t the hegemons of the world, it’s more likely the other way around. pants.
      1. Jarilo
        Jarilo 30 December 2015 13: 37
        And all attempts to exit the game with the Americans are brutally suppressed. Countries either explode from the inside out or kneel down with a puppet government.
  7. Jarilo
    Jarilo 30 December 2015 07: 27

    It’s so simple in the subject.
  8. parusnik
    parusnik 30 December 2015 07: 27
    There is a parable about one predictor .. He always guessed .. The secret turned out to be simple. Parents came and asked who would be born .. He said a girl, and a boy wrote in the journal .. When the indignant parents came, they say what he was expecting .. we have a boy born. . He opened the magazine .. checked, showed and the bewildered parents left .. how could they be so wrong .. On the account .. twins, triplets the parable is silent .. All with the coming .. smile
    APASUS 30 December 2015 07: 53
    It was not necessary to work in the CIA in order to predict the problem of the growing US debt. Not one president will be able to cut back on the consumption of Americans, that means war. There simply is no other choice to write off the debt! But how it will begin, through a terrorist attack like September 11, or through a war with ISIS, is a trifle.
    1. Cap.Morgan
      Cap.Morgan 30 December 2015 08: 43
      Well why not.
      The new industrial revolution.
      At the beginning there was a century of steam - the 19th, then a century of gasoline and electricity, now we are at a new turning point.
      What war in the atomic age are you talking about? Well, they aren’t.
      Anyone who offers a new high-tech product will be the leader in the world. The debt will resolve itself, it is only necessary to start producing and selling hyperboloids and gravitsaps, which is what the Western world is now moving by leaps and bounds.
      1. APASUS
        APASUS 30 December 2015 15: 21
        Quote: Cap.Morgan
        New industrial revolution

        What is it based on? at the discovery of thermonuclear fusion, some global energy projects or discoveries?
        Quote: Cap.Morgan
        Well, they aren’t.

        They are not, and therefore they have a multi-vector foreign policy. Since the economic absorption of the EU through the "Transoceanic Partnership" is proceeding with a creak (allowing US laws to be recognized over national ones) and the signing of the economically disadvantageous "Transatlantic Partnership" is stalled, the next stage should be borne in mind.
        It is not for nothing that the very name of ISIS contains the concept of "Islam", an attempt to oppose, in the global understanding, Muslims against other religious movements.
        The debt will be absorbed precisely because the United States will be able to drag the countries of the Middle East into the global conflict, which accounts for almost a third of foreign borrowing.
  10. Igor Polovodov
    Igor Polovodov 30 December 2015 08: 33
    Vangans, but not a word about Wang ... unfairly))
  11. Nikolay71
    Nikolay71 30 December 2015 09: 26
    In my opinion, forecasts are still necessary. Without them, long-term planning is impossible. And the fact that not all forecasts will come true - so, after all, man assumes, but God disposes.
  12. Belousov
    Belousov 30 December 2015 09: 36
    The report correctly pointed out that the world's population will grow to 7 billion. and that growth will slow, or even turn into a decline, in Russia and Eastern Europe. It’s true: there are fewer people living in Russia today than in 2000

    Well, this is a targeted policy of staff members and our government. The collapse of education, medicine, 282 Art. UK, permanent vocational schools with jaguars, etc. So this has left us a lot. As stated by us, about 15 million should remain to serve and nothing more. So we are waiting for an increase in the retirement age, cuts in pensions and other social payments and other gifts from our authorities. The main thing is that Putin is satisfied with the work of the government ...
  13. guzik007
    guzik007 30 December 2015 10: 46
    Regarding the demographic crisis in Western countries, experts were right. The CIA foresaw
    Ha! The SRs actively destroyed Yervopu by force pumping her migrants all these years with the help of the overthrow of the Middle Eastern regimes. Such are the modest ones, bl.
    but I would like to know the forecasts of our specialists in this regard ... although alas ... they are still more modest: =)
  14. holgert
    holgert 30 December 2015 11: 50
    I remember the forecast of 1992 - Russia in the west - across the Urals, in the south - across Tataria ((this was "thought" "as an independent state)), in the north - across Karelia ((also "" free "" country)) !!!!! At the same time, we are completely dependent in everything and on everyone !!! AND WHAT ???? .... AND WHERE ????
  15. Gomunkul
    Gomunkul 30 December 2015 11: 52
    Will the experts risk issuing a report on what the year of the 2030 will be? Who will be the new hegemon there? And who will be on the cover of "Time"? And will there be a “Time”? Hey, CIA!
    The hatreds have not brought anyone to good. Do not forget that the CIA is a huge organization with a huge budget, and having a lot of money, you can implement any forecasts. hi
    PS In 1999, few people living in Russia believed that the country would get out of the abyss into which Yeltsin and his team were pushing it. And in 1985, few believed that the USSR would cease to exist in 1991. hi
  16. Fei_Wong
    Fei_Wong 30 December 2015 13: 08
    It is a pity that forecasters did not predict that it was the United States that would become the world's main terrorist. Then they clearly overlooked the obvious.
  17. capitosha1rang
    capitosha1rang 30 December 2015 14: 47
    Here is the tsimes and the meaning of the article - "... ethnic and religious tensions continue to plague poor countries."
    The law of conservation of mass and energy, known from school, extends to geopolitics. The balance of interests, resources, claims should be maintained.
    On the one hand - Norway, Luxembourg, Singapore, Brunei, Qatar, UAE, Austria, Liechtenstein, Czech Republic, Switzerland, Sweden, etc., on the other hand - Albania, Afghanistan, Kampuchea, Ivory Coast, Zaire, Cameroon, Kenya , Liberia, Mali, Mozambique, Nigeria, Uganda, Ethiopia, etc.
    In fact, from both sides there are much more countries and state entities, but the above mentioned will be enough to understand what it is about.
    The flag of freedom and democracy is a landmark, a picket, a benchmark, a beacon for those who lead their people to complete freedom, poverty and subsequent turmoil.
    Russia should take its place in history, focusing on the banner of great power, defending and defending its own and only its own interests, relying on "... its only loyal allies - the Army and the Navy."
    Who prevents this, slows down and sabotages the process?
    We will ask the sailor Zheleznyak and recall his famous - KARAUL TIRED!
  18. puppet
    puppet 30 December 2015 15: 51
    It’s not like forecasts, but badly hidden plans
  19. Kibl
    Kibl 30 December 2015 15: 58
    Guess don’t guess, go to the grandmother or stay at home, it won’t help! The world is ruled by something more than all the grandmothers with their analysts, they are ruled by anyone but just not a man, that's for sure. There will be an asteroid on the planet or some kind of scumbag will explode fucking global scale and races ......
    1. ra77767
      ra77767 30 December 2015 18: 37
      People rule the world and only people!
  20. Bylynich
    Bylynich 30 December 2015 23: 36
    And if you look with an armed eye, you can see two stars. Three stars ...
  21. Severok01
    Severok01 31 December 2015 00: 08
    They are trying to bury Russia all, but Africa, no matter how much it has been poisoned, it multiplies)) Funny people work in the CIA