The concept of human development in the new global world is currently changing dramatically due to the strong interdependence of states, as well as the emergence of new world control centers for certain actions or goals. These centers are often formed in a undemocratic manner by a group of countries. History Earth and humanity is developing in such a way that, apparently, the time is near when several global associations of countries will be created. In this case, you will need a certain world order, the contours of which are not quite clear.
The Westphalian world order, which was consolidated in the middle of the 17th century, demanded the existence of independent countries that would not interfere in each other’s internal affairs. All power of the state on its territory should belong to the government, which defines and creates the necessary structures, and external players should not interfere with it.
Such a construction determines the basic principle of the balance of forces, which is regarded as positive. However, due to certain ambitions, some Western European countries did not want to use it, which caused limited conflicts.
After 1945 of the year and before 90's, the balance between the states united by the Warsaw Pact led by the USSR and a number of capitalist countries with the leading role of the USA ensured the absence of major wars.
In the modern world there are more opportunities and difficulties. In 90, concepts were born in connection with globalization, which began to bury the Westphalian system, proving the inevitability of the weakening and gradual extinction of states.
Indeed, governments began to lose their monopoly on various power functions. The rapid development after 1990 of the international financial system operating on market principles, including in Russia, reduces the barriers between foreign and domestic policies, between human rights and its security.
Globalization exacerbates common problems, such as the spread of weapons mass destruction, the disintegration of former states, the predatory attitude to the environment, the genocide and terrorism practiced by some countries. Habitual conflicts are exacerbated by the introduction of new technologies, methods of processing and transmitting information. Any unpredictable error can be fatal to all mankind.
The complexities of the modern world are determined by forces that do not recognize any restrictions or order at all. It is necessary to stop. As long as the balance of forces remains the basic principle of the world order, it should reduce the negative impacts, while maintaining at least the basic positions of the usual order.
The new rules of the game proposed by the United States and its followers in the EU do not take into account some of the problems. The fact is that globalization has a controversial impact on the development of democratic institutions, which makes it impossible to regulate them from a single center. Democracy and market liberalism currently do not create reliable and sustainable ways of functioning of states.
In 60, Henry Kissinger developed the idea of “flexible regulation”, including the possible use of tactical nuclear weapons. In his book The World Order, published a year ago, he writes that the basic principles of the Westphalian formation, including non-interference in internal affairs, are immoral and obsolete. That is, the United States all this time sought to lay down its universal values as the basis of the world order. Today, Kissinger speaks of the collapse of the balance of power in the Middle East. However, the politician does not name the culprit, although it was the United States and the EU that led the region to a catastrophe with interventions and the destruction of the existing regimes in Libya, Iraq, and Yemen.
Today, the United States and its allies are unable to provide a balance of power in the Middle East — neither with their troops, nor with the support of groups that are trying to seize power and often cooperate with terrorists.
The US, it seems, is already scared and its own principle of the possible use of tactical nuclear weapons, since Pakistan already has them, and Saudi Arabia is trying to get one. And this will lead to a power imbalance not only in the Middle East.
The new world order should take into account all the main features of the current period of human development, all the functions and principles necessary to increase the life of people on Earth.
The contours of the new formation
Let us try to describe some kind of new world formation of humanity management. Its main features include:
-the presence of independent states;
-the formation of soft (not hard) state associations;
-balance of power;
- systemic forms of combating any manifestations of terrorism;
-diversity of traditions and beliefs;
-the presence of truth and justice, morality, motivation of the population, political will, the opportunity to offer humanity a new dream;
- the necessary variety of freedoms defined by laws;
- restriction (in laws) of dangerous or incomprehensible new technological processes and scientific trends that can change the genetics of people and of all mankind and lead to its death;
-the termination of various ways of instant structural or revolutionary change;
-complex of fair agreements and distribution of power in the world structure based on multipolarity;
-determination of the common goal of this world order as the maximum time for the existence of any structure of humanity (individual, organization, state, supranational association and the whole of humanity).
The principle of having independent states was defined by the Westphalian Treaty of Europe 400 years ago. As for the formation of soft associations, it should not be associated with violence or hegemonic aspirations, and also prevent its members from carrying out their own functions. Such consolidation can have almost a common strategy for achieving the goals.
The balance of power is the basis for ensuring peace on our planet.
Systemic forms of combating any manifestations of terrorism are relevant in this period and in the future.
The requirement to preserve the diversity of beliefs and cultures speaks of the needlessness of artificially changing national traditions. People change their social savings themselves.
The ability to offer humanity a new dream involves a gradual change in covert and erroneous, including unpredictable or chaotic actions in solving complex tasks inside and outside the state.
The necessary diversity of freedoms, as well as the restriction of dangerous and incomprehensible discoveries in technology and science is required so that a person or a state does not cross the border of the unknown without the need.
Examples of world problems arising from the secret or erroneous actions of some countries abound: Yugoslavia, Libya, Georgia, Syria, etc. No such experience can be called positive.
It is important that multipolarity is determined not only by the presence of several associations, but also by different currencies.
As for the global dream of people for the foreseeable period, then it may be precisely the maximum time of human existence. Accordingly, it is necessary to build a strategy to achieve it in any structure of activity of homo sapiens.
In the center of chaotic events
Let us dwell in more detail on the balance of forces, which can maintain normal relations between states and their neighbors. Often it is understood as a military component. Of course, this component is necessary, but in this case we are talking about the dependence on the general power of the states, on ensuring the proportionality of forces in the main functions of the associations.
To build a model of world order on the planet, you can use the natural functions of any power (economy, industry, sociology, etc.), which have specific quantitative indicators. However, the distribution of forces also depends on a variety of different unpredictable or individual, that is, chaotic events. They can manage global structures and have a complex composition.
The formation of these chaotic events or factors is obtained when states have different, often opposite ways of development, mentality, etc. We will not develop here the idea of the diversity of the world - this is understandable, but let us try to analyze the actions of some chaotic events that can be called artificial, they have two forms: secret and erroneous. Secret usually organizes one state for another in order to change its state in the direction that the initiator of this event needs.
This chaotic factor can be weakened if the principles of education based on truth, justice, morality and the fight against corruption are in force in society, and the political, economic and social life strategies are understood by the majority of the population.
Another example of the chaotic factor is aimed at the degradation of statehood. For example, for Russia it is dangerous to enter a special European system of ontological information.
The ontological system (OS) operating in the European Union is a global information network collecting the results of scientific and innovative developments, including in our country. In particular, on the basis of a memorandum signed in 1996 with the State Committee for the Support and Development of Small Business, the Germans formed contact bureaux in Moscow, Samara, Yekaterinburg and other large cities, which, under the guise of helping our country, were actually introduced into the most important sectors in order to receive information and the destruction of the structure of science and industry. For the Russian Federation, the ontological model of the European Union is a strong, randomizing factor.
Another example. In Russia, there are 600 organizations that receive funds - almost a billion dollars - from abroad, primarily from the United States, despite the fact that there is only one organization that exists for the money of the Russian Federation.
All secret chaotic factors are interrelated and constitute a system of soft wars. Their impact on countries and all of humanity can be great.
How to avoid the effect of cobra
Consider also some erroneous chaotic control factors. The most important are the rapid integration of objects and corruption.
The process of integrating global systems, such as states and other complex organizations or enterprises, is very long. It may take 20 more than years, so at the beginning of the path the factor of globalization of functions with other related systems is chaotic and its size, of course, depends on the specialization of work (production, science, education, etc.) and the form of association.
Often associations unite various topics or problems into a single system only to show the importance of the association itself. Such examples take place in the space industry, the economy, etc. Thus, work plans form chaotic factors that reduce the systematic nature of activities and cause chaos - what the German researcher Horst Siebert called the cobra effect, which leads to the opposite result in the work of scientific and educational organizations and in their plans.
To avoid the effect of a cobra, it is not necessary to assemble organizations into associations. Each manager of a particular structure must be an expert in this area, and not just a manager or owner.
On the other hand, the integration of structures is one of the ways to increase the energy of each of the consolidated systems through external interactions. However, global integration requires more energy and must have public administration.
Another erroneous chaotic factor is corruption. It is always opposition to the functioning of a particular object or subject of the state. But it decreases with centralized control. By the way, Russia ranked 176 in 2012 in the ranking of corruption, which included 133 countries, and 2014 in 136.
Ways to protect against chaotic factors are. The main recommendations for reducing their impact are:
- manage the global system gently and gently;
-separate it into local parts;
-rebuild the structure;
- to allow centralization, implying more rigid management;
-to take anti-corruption measures (change the principles of powers of managers).
Changes in the world, even in the form of small soft wars or conflicts, can happen, but when a certain permissible amount of equilibrium fluctuations is reached, which does not go beyond the limits of people's lives on Earth. That is, the future of mankind depends on the balance of power of global associations or civilizations of the Earth.