Turkish-American provocation made the whole world look into the future with dismay. There are grounds for alarm. You can risk making a prediction: there will be no war, but there will be such a struggle for peace, that there will be little left of the world.
Before proceeding to the analysis of possible areas of response to Russia, we must first understand what our opponents are trying to achieve. For this you can not stop the logical chain in Ankara. It must be remembered that in geopolitics there are practically no abandoned rabid dogs, especially since in the Turkish case the strings leading to Washington are visible to the naked eye.
After the start of the Russian operation in Syria, the irresponsible and patriotic part of the American elite, who would prefer to plunge the world into a nuclear war, but not abandon world hegemony, demanded that Obama organize a no-fly zone over Syria or at least part of Syria. This was demanded by McCain, this was demanded by Hillary Clinton and (most importantly) this was demanded by the main “brain” of American influential radicals - Robert Kagan (husband of Victoria Nuland).
The most stupid of the members of the deranged part of the American elite, Senator from South Carolina Lindsay Graham publicly statedthat “without exaggeration would shoot down” Russian planes in Syria if they threaten the forces that Washington supports.
Moreover, just a few days ago, Kagan demanded that the United States not only created a no-fly zone over the Syrian-Turkish border, but also created a “safe zone” for the “moderate opposition”, reinforcing it with the US military contingent of 30-50 thousand person. Program article Kagan, опубликованная in the Wall Street Journal on Saturday caused a sharply negative reaction from the sane part of the American political and military elite. Speaking very rudely, no one wanted to die for the sake of "Kagan and his friends." It is very likely that “Kagan and his friends”, having lost the opportunity to use the Pentagon as their personal PMCs, decided to switch to the traditional plan B - namely, to use their Turkish puppets, in the same style and format as Kiev political dolls like Yatsenyuk are used and Dzhemilev. Opinions and desires of Erdogan himself in this scheme did not matter at all, although, most likely, he could have liked the idea of strengthening his position by consolidating society against an external enemy. As for the radicals in the party of Erdogan himself, they clearly accepted the idea "with a bang."
If you look at the situation from the point of view of Kagan and his allies, then the Turks had to do what the US military did not want to do. If you call a spade a spade, then Turkey was sacrificed. Soon, Thanksgiving is probably the meanest and dirtiest holiday known to mankind, a holiday of betrayal as a lifestyle and strategy for success. Each year, only those for whom Judas is a hero are capable of remembering and rejoicing at the kindness of those whom future Americans later subjected to genocide. The traditional delicacy on this "stab in the back" is roast turkey, in English - turkey. Turkey in English is also Turkey. If this is not a coincidence, then it must be admitted that our opponents have a peculiar sense of humor.
In response to the downed aircraft, the authors of the "Kagan plan" would have arranged either of two options:
1. A full-fledged war on the line Russia - NATO. Given Europe’s emerging attempts to crawl out from under the American “security cap,” this could be the last real chance to use the NATO Charter’s 5 article in order to make war with Russia on a united front. If this is not done now, then sooner or later Juncker's attempts create european (ie, an army independent of the United States), as well as attempts by the French elite to move closer to Russia to solve the IS problem, could lead to the disintegration of NATO from within.
2. The termination of Russian flights and bombings in the zone of the Syrian-Turkish border, with the subsequent creation of the very “reserve of moderate terrorists”, about which Kagan himself wrote in his program document. After the appearance of such a "safe zone", it would be trivial for the American radicals to simply push through their solution to the Syrian issue: break Assad, support the IS and direct it to the Caucasus, Russia and Iran.
It is already obvious that none of the variants of Kagan played. From the statement of the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation it is clear that:
- The operation in Syria will be continued and activated;
- Any planes that will threaten Russian planes will stray.
An important clarification is needed to understand the emotions of the Turkish "party of war", which joyfully harnessed the plan of Kagan. From the point of view of the “Turkish imperials”, which constitute a significant part of the local political and military elite, the units of the “Turkoman” in Syria are roughly the same as the LPR for Russia. When Russian bombers eliminate dozens and hundreds of “pro-Turkish fighters” in one flight, some part of the Turkish elite perceives this as their personal pain, their personal tragedy and their personal reason for revenge. Moreover, one does not need to be Wanga to guess that a significant part of the personnel serving the IG oil business, from fuel truck drivers to engineers, has Turkish passports. From the point of view of a significant part of the Turkish elite, Russia stepped on a very sore spot and it was not only a matter of money and barrels, but also that the Russian army methodically killed those whom the Turks considered their own and to whom the Turkish elite promised support and protection. When McCain and Kagan appeared on the horizon with their idea of a “buffer zone” and promises of protection, it is clear that the Turks seized this idea with both hands. However, the Kremlin made a logical conclusion: if the "Turkish imperials" are so painful to watch the deaths of pro-Turkish militants and burning Turkish fuel trucks, then the process must be continued, not curtailed. Instead of driving Russia away from its sick corns, Ankara has ensured that the Russian army will dance a bloody jig on these corns. Daily. Until each militant who believes in the dream of a new Ottoman Empire is eliminated. At the same time, the Russian air defense will keep Turkish (and not only) aircraft in the gunsight, counting on the chance to equalize the score by aviation to losses.
The above is just one thing, albeit the main line of response.
Turkey has one serious trump card in its relations with the Russian Federation. Ankara can close the straits through which the Russian group in Syria is supplied and exports Russian oil. Russia also has a serious trump card that will be used in the event of an escalation of the conflict: the Turkish energy sector is dependent on Russian gas. Roughly speaking, in response to the "shutdown of the straits," the Turks can turn off the light, and this is in addition to the obvious prospect of a military solution to the blocking problem. The combination of mutual threats indicates that the matter will most likely not come to the mutual use of these trumps.
There are two additional areas of action - the support of the Kurds and the impact on the economic interests of Turkey.
We should not assume that "all the Kurds are under the United States." This is a simplification, and not very relevant to reality. Firstly, there are many Kurds, and not all Kurdish organizations have a positive attitude towards the United States. Secondly, even formally pro-American Kurdish forces cooperate with the United States not from a good life and they have to put up with the fact that Washington simultaneously supports Ankara. Under these conditions, Moscow can offer quite interesting options for cooperation to the Kurds, because now we have no limitations in terms of the risk of offending Turkey.
Regarding Turkish economic interests, Dmitry Medvedev quite clearly put it:
"... Long good neighborly relations between Russia and Turkey are undermined, including in the economy and the humanitarian sphere. It will be difficult to repair this damage, a direct consequence could be the abandonment of a number of important joint projects and the loss by Turkish companies of their positions on the Russian market ".
By coincidence, this morning the Rosselkhoznadzor has already found any violations at one of the Turkish meat suppliers to Russia.
It is safe to predict that the Russian regulatory authorities will suddenly acquire unnatural, but commendable vigilance in matters of compliance by Turkish companies with various norms of Russian legislation. The bad luck line will also begin near Turkish-Turkish NGOs and the Azerbaijani-Turkish business, which still feels very good in some sectors of the Russian economy. Yes, Turkey has the opportunity to respond symmetrically, creating problems for its subsidiaries Sberbank, Inter RAO and Lukoil, but in monetary terms, Turkish business will lose much more than Russia.
By the way, every Russian consumer can take part in the response. You can and should refuse to rest in Turkey, but this is not enough. For example, you can and should refuse to buy household appliances Beko (a brand of the Turkish corporation Ko Holding Durable Goods Group). Beer consumption is evil, but the consumption of beer by Efes, that is, the Turkish corporation Anadolu Efes Biraclk ve Malt Sanayii A. is not only evil, but also sponsoring Turkish accomplices of terrorists. If you have a deposit or account in Europe Credit Bank, which belongs to the Turkish oligarch Husnu Mustafa Ozhegin, then its closure will be a beautiful patriotic gesture. I would also like to hope that wearing Colin's Turkish consumer goods will soon become bad form.
Last, but perhaps the most important area of work on the Turkish front will be diplomatic and informational. In the medium term, the Kremlin will seek to perceive Turkey in the international arena as a country sponsor of international terrorism. There is evidence, and now they will be methodically used in the framework of the work of all international structures, from the UN to the FATF. It will be very difficult to defend against the charges and they cannot be ignored endlessly. It will be especially difficult for European politicians to ignore after the Paris attacks. With the successful development of this line of attack on Turkey, it will be increasingly difficult for the American radicals to seek transatlantic solidarity in terms of protecting Turkey from Russia's unfriendly actions in other areas. Moreover, the opening of the participation of Turkish officials, as well as their close relatives in the financing of ISIS, on the one hand, can provoke another political crisis in Turkey, and on the other, offers great opportunities in terms of personal prosecution of some odious representatives of the Turkish elite. It would be very desirable for us that the various troubles that would happen to the Turkish elitist would be attributed not to "Russian revenge", but clearly substantiated by the generally recognized need to combat international terrorism.
By the way, the very fact of the existence of modern Turkey is the result of the idealism of the leadership of the USSR. Herself история Russia, using the example of Bulgaria, Turkey and even Ukraine, teaches us that mercy and idealism, regardless of motivation, is a dangerous luxury in geopolitics. In the future, however, it is worth looking with a certain optimism, since we have every chance to correct some historical mistakes.
The Turkish problem will be solved, but it is only a symptom, while the fundamental cause of such problems is in Washington, and not even in the White House, but, for example, in an inconspicuous office in Massachusetts Avenue 1775. This problem is the irresponsible segment of the American political elite. His neutralization is a topic for another conversation. If we get to the Turkish Imperials relatively soon, then with the Americans everything will be much more complicated. We are now participating in the First World Hybrid War. Victory will be expensive and not long, but it will be ours.