Military Review

Ruble to all head

46
Speaking at the Public Chamber of the Russian Federation at the second All-Russian Research and Practice Conference of the Analytics Association, presidential adviser Sergey Glazyev said that the direction of the main attack was clearly marked in the hybrid aggression being waged against us: the information war and sanctions that “knocked Russia out of the economic growth trajectory ". What to do in this situation?


Unfortunately, our counter partners have achieved significant success. If all developed countries show economic growth, come to the position of a new way of life, then our financial and economic system moves in the opposite direction.

For the sake of speculators


The central bank announces inflation targeting, but gets the opposite result - it rises twice. In Russia, the movement of capital is not limited, non-residents dominate the market. There are a lot of similar examples, which indicates a strong dependence of our financial sector on foreign factors.

“Of the oil-producing countries, the most affected, except for us, Mexico and Nigeria devalued their currencies by only 11 percent”
At this time, in the West, a new technological pattern is being born, with which the restructuring of world production is connected. Signs of recovery, which we observe in such periods, say that there the economy is already quite firmly developing bioengineering, information, nanotechnology. And this market is growing at 35 percent per year.

But on the whole, the period of changing technological structures is always a depression in the economies of most countries, uncertainty, volatility in the financial market, a sharp increase in the role of the state, an arms race. So it was in 30-s of the last century. And it was repeated in 70 – 80, when the militarization of space began. In the latter case, this prompted the development of high technology, microelectronics. It was they who, figuratively speaking, dragged the American economy for many years, when the market for information and communication products added 25 percent per year.

Changing technological structures is also a challenge to national security. What do in this situation? In the West, sharply increased funding for the economy. Literally flooded it with cheap money. This is due to the fact that such a period is characterized by very high risks. Private business with great care and reluctance to develop new technologies. Therefore, to create the most favorable environment for economic modernization, advanced countries pursue a policy of financial easing. For example, the money supply has increased three to four times since the beginning of the current crisis in the West. There is a huge flow of money. The total value of world reserves was about three trillion dollars, and this process continues.

Ruble to all head


It is supported by global financial institutions. It can be predicted that for several more years, the issue of world currencies will be approximately 700 – 800 billions of dollars a year. Moreover, it is conducted at negative interest rates and its volume is about five times more than our entire monetary base.

Unlike the advanced countries, Russia, instead of reducing these rates and increasing cash flow, pursues a policy of raising them. But when we raise interest rates, we get a slowdown in production and GDP growth rates. The value of money begins to exceed the profitability in most industries. Currently, only the mining industry and the chemical and technological complex of Russia have sufficient profitability to take loans at our interest rates. And no one thinks that almost half of the stock capital of industry is formed through bank loans. As a result, enterprises are faced with a choice: either to curtail production and repay loans, reducing working capital and raising prices to compensate for costs, or go bankrupt.

Someone has managed to go the way of raising prices. At the beginning of 2015, we had continuous losses in the industry, now the financial results in some places have increased against the background of a decline in production. Following the rise in price, enterprises began to increase prices for their products. And who could not, began to reduce production.

To repeat: a high interest rate did not reduce inflation, and the attempt to stabilize the ruble failed. As soon as the Central Bank announced the transition to a floating rate, strong fluctuations began. With such volatility, no investment processes are possible, as well as development. This is a rather strange phenomenon from the point of view of management theory, since at the moment the ruble is the most secure currency in the world.

Why such a super-high subsidy of the ruble exchange rate? It is connected with the fact that our market is very open, although its scale is only one percent of the world. In essence, our financial market is US-centered, because it is based on the issue of the US dollar. It is not surprising that, in the conditions of openness, foreigners mainly operate on it, the share of non-residents exceeds 75 percent. This suggests that we do not control our market. To steer in such a situation with our own financial and economic development is simply impossible - we are not the masters here.

Naive statements that the ruble exchange rate is entirely related to oil prices. This factor has, of course, a certain value. But from the oil-producing countries, the most affected countries, except for us, Mexico and Nigeria, devalued their currencies only by 11 percent. Why ruble depreciated twice? Because no one in the world throws their national currency into free floating. But we decided to go our own way. Contrary to the Constitution and the fact that the strengthening of the ruble is the most important task of the Central Bank, Russia, in the presence of huge foreign exchange reserves (we have two times more than the entire money supply in the economy) continues to experiment.

The ruble is not only the most secure currency, but also the most undervalued at the exchange rate, while the most volatile. This is absurd. The Central Bank could stabilize the ruble exchange rate at any level, and with a margin of safety. But this is not done because the monetary and financial market is essentially given to foreign players. The share of speculative operations on it exceeds all reasonable limits. It is the withdrawal of the Central Bank from control over the course and the surrender of positions to speculators - the reason for the high volatility of the ruble recently.

Amid falling economic activity and rising prices, the volume of transactions at the Moscow Currency Exchange doubled in just 2015 a year. The profitability of operations on it today is about 80 percent. That is, the exchange is also under the control of speculators, according to Glazyev. And such a policy is interested. Their goals are the opposite of state. If we maintain such a course in the economy, we cannot count on our own development.

Central bank errors


Our academic science warned of the consequences. The central bank, the members of the National Financial Council are aware of the official opinion of the adviser to the President of the Russian Federation on regional economic integration, Sergey Glazyev, and his proposal. There is a conclusion of the Economics Section of the RAS. It says: the transition to targeting inflation will lead to a combination of price hike, production decline and a reduction in investment.

“There is no logic in targeting inflation,” Glazyev is convinced. “If you think that this is a system policy, you are deeply mistaken.” The fact is that targeting involves giving up control over the cross-border movement of capital, from linking the national currency to gold. Under these conditions, you can simultaneously fix the course and engage in autonomous monetary policy. This strange management scheme that we have developed is unscientific. Even 50 years ago, it was rejected by academic science. The classics of monetarism understood gold as money and did not take into account neither credits, nor feedbacks in the economy, nor debt obligations, did not realize that money was secured only by obligations, and not by something else.

If we continue this practice of cross-border capital movements without restrictions, given the weakness of the domestic money market and its microscopic character, we will not be able to manage our financial and economic system. The ruble will depend only on speculators who are not subject to sanctions and who can take loans in the West in any amount. For them, such a niche is specially left by the Americans. Whatever interest rate the Central Bank sets, the speculators always have the opportunity to go abroad and take almost any loan there for free. Accordingly, we can not manage and our system of money supply.

Thus, inflation targeting is nothing more than manipulating a key rate with an open capital account. Conducting such a policy for three years has driven us into a stagnant trap. Economists say: devaluation-stagnation spiral.

The Central Bank is wrong all the time not only in inflation forecasts, but also in estimates of the volume of capital movements across the border. The country's leadership constantly invites to invest in Russia. But while the opposite is observed. The avalanche outflow could have been foreseen as soon as the West began talking about sanctions.

What should the Central Bank do logically in such a situation? Replace shrinking external sources of credit internal. But the opposite was observed: an increase in interest rates and a reduction in lending, which aggravated the effect of sanctions on our financial and economic system. This is what allowed Obama to declare: Russia's economy is torn to shreds.

Lack of money in the economy, high interest rates led to the fact that our corporations went to borrow abroad. As a result, almost one hundred percent of the country's monetary base was recently formed exclusively for external sources of credit and foreign investment. Today they make up 70 percent, which is still too much. Although in principle the financial system is balanced. We could well develop at the expense of domestic sources of credit and income. But the fact is that along with the increase in foreign loans, capital leaves the country. We have no control over it.

A significant part of the income flows into offshore. On this officially (including due to the non-receipt of taxes) we lose a trillion rubles of budget revenues annually. The return of this money used to go at the expense of foreign loans. Such a cycle is 120 – 130 billions of dollars a year. Half settles in the western financial system without a trace. The capital accumulated in offshore from Russia reaches 0,5 trillion dollars, as many more simply disappeared.

Following loans, property rights go abroad. When you take money there, leave a deposit. And now we see the outflow of property rights. The share of non-residents in our industry averages over 50 percent. And our power engineering on 90 percent belongs to non-citizens of Russia or people with several passports. Following the monetary base in the Anglo-Saxon jurisdiction and property rights are gone.

In essence, Russia is a donor of the global financial system. It would seem that in such a situation we should not be afraid of economic sanctions. But the trouble is that due to the ongoing monetary policy, we were in complete external dependence. And now, when the flow of external credit dries out, the money supply is automatically reduced. Less often loans are taken, investments are curtailed, the economy is falling. The analysis shows that even if all the incomes of enterprises are turned into investments, we will not be able to provide even simple reproduction.

Primakov's example

“The conclusion is that our monetary authorities are amazed by the cognitive weapons, - considers Sergey Glazyev. “This is when an idea directly opposite to the vital interests is being introduced into your head.”

The answer to the questions of who does this and why, is contained in the recommendations of the IMF, which were left by the foundation's mission in Moscow a year ago. In particular, it is the IMF that advises Russia to continue raising interest rates, while the United States - to reduce them. Where is the logic?

Unfortunately, this practice, apparently, will continue. In accordance with the “Program of Russia's monetary policy up to 2018,” the monetary base in real terms will be reduced by 30 percent by the deadline. We will come to an extremely low level of monetization of the economy, of the order of 36 percent of GDP, which is critically dangerous. Approximately the same happened at the beginning of 90, when monetary surrogates, offsets, barter appeared. Do we want this?

The most annoying thing is that stagflation in the country takes place against the background of large reserves. The capacity utilization of industry is only 60 percent. And you can safely increase production by 40 percent. But for this, we need to develop along the straight line along which we walked until we announced inflation targeting. Today, the development trajectory is at zero, and the level of activity in the economy is two times less than it was even in Soviet times. It turns out that we are working for wear while the main capital is shrinking.

Where is the way out of this vicious circle? According to Glazyev, it is necessary to do what is being done in the whole developed world in a market economy. Task number one is to ensure the stability of the ruble.

First, the central bank needs to return to the market. Free him from speculators. Establish on the stock exchange the same regulatory rules that apply throughout the world, and work to ensure the stability of the ruble, relying on our gold and foreign exchange reserves.

Secondly, simultaneously lower interest rates. The problem is that most of the money that the Central Bank issues is spent on the foreign exchange market. A short-term loans are issued for a week at a rate of 11 percent and can work only as sources of financing speculation. Almost all the money that the Central Bank introduced into the economy through refinancing last year, turned out to be transferred by commercial banks to foreign currency assets. The main money goes to speculation and work against stability. The rest of the official tools - budget support for small and medium-sized businesses, mortgages, social programs - are used on a residual basis. Until there is control over the targeted movement of money, we are doomed to further degradation and chaos.

Thirdly, it is necessary to come to a multi-channel system of economic growth, which is possible at low interest rates, long terms of loans and state control over the targeted use of money. Interest rates can be zero if funds are allocated for public procurement, other federal programs.

Fourthly, the State extra-budgetary investment and credit fund can be used as an alternative. The general director of the Center for Scientific Political Thought and Ideology, Doctor of Physical and Mathematical Sciences Stepan Sulakshin and a number of other specialists developed the concept of such a financial institution. Only when these conditions are fulfilled, the bulk of loans will go to the development of production, investment, innovation, modernization, etc.

Finally, there are government bonds - the issue of money for financing the budget deficit. This is the main channel used by the United States and the European Union. The US Federal Reserve, for example, prints money mainly for state debts. The whole issue is spent on maintaining the budget deficit and Russia is helping to pursue this policy by dollarizing its economy, which even President Vladimir Putin recently condemned by making a public suggestion to Finance Minister Anton Siluanov.

As the well-known economist John Keynes said, if the capacities are not loaded and there is potential for growth, the amount of money should be increased until the potential is exhausted. Thus, you will achieve a fall in inflation by reducing costs, production scale and investment. The main thing is to direct money for development.

So far our monetization of the economy is lower than in the West, at about 8 – 10 trillion rubles. Although we had an example of such a policy - immediately after the default of 1998, when Victor Gerashchenko and Yevgeny Primakov introduced a similar system and got a stunning effect: a sharp increase in industrial production (20%) in a year, a fourfold decrease in inflation while expanding the monetary base.

Japan, China, India came to today's sustainable development due to the credit issue, the volume of which increased three to four times. Of course, such a system cannot work without strategic planning. But if the appropriate decisions are made, then, as Sergey Glazyev emphasized, he and his associates can guarantee that the economy will grow at least eight percent a year.
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  1. VadimL
    VadimL 5 November 2015 05: 41 New
    14
    So far, in the economic bloc of our government, such as Ulyukaev and Siluanov, we do not see a normal economy. It's time to change them.
    1. dsi
      dsi 5 November 2015 06: 03 New
      19
      And change it to the Glazyevs.
      1. atalef
        atalef 5 November 2015 18: 45 New
        -3
        Quote: dsi
        The ruble is not only the most well-to-do currency, but also the most undervalued at the exchange rate, while being the most volatile. This is absurd. The Central Bank could stabilize the ruble at any level, and with a margin of safety

        why are the Glazyevs in the plural? MULTI-EYE?
        although after
        The ruble is not only the most well-to-do currency, but also the most undervalued at the exchange rate, while being the most volatile. This is absurd. The Central Bank could stabilize the ruble at any level, and with a margin of safety

        The article really can not be read.
        Bullshit, moreover, complete.
      2. The comment was deleted.
    2. Mahmut
      Mahmut 5 November 2015 06: 17 New
      +7
      But this is not done because the monetary and financial market is essentially given to foreign players

      Mechanical engineering was also given to foreigners for destruction.
      1. Vend
        Vend 5 November 2015 10: 17 New
        0
        in the hybrid aggression against us, the direction of the main blow was clearly outlined: the information war and sanctions that “knocked Russia off the path of economic growth
        I do not quite agree. Shot down with what? With the dominance of imported products. And it’s always difficult to raise your industry. So with the statement I agree only partially
        1. vladimirZ
          vladimirZ 5 November 2015 12: 54 New
          0
          In fact, our financial market is American-centric, since it is based on the issue of US dollars.
          Not surprisingly, the in the conditions of openness, it is mainly operated by foreigners, the share of non-residents exceeds 75 percent. This suggests that we are not the ones who control our market.
          In this situation, it is simply impossible to steer one’s own financial and economic development - we are not the owners here.
          - from an article by Oleg Falichev

          And who, over the past 15 years, has been leading our entire political and economic life? Who is responsible for this state of affairs?
          Yes, these are our pro-Western liberal oligarchs and officials put in power by them, together with our President Putin V.V.
          And from this fact there is no escape. So it is, so it will be. While Putin V.V. with comrades in power in Russia.
          1. BMW
            BMW 5 November 2015 13: 53 New
            +2
            Quote: vladimirZ
            So it is, so it will be. While Putin V.V. with comrades in power in Russia.

            Look at the root.
        2. g1v2
          g1v2 5 November 2015 18: 36 New
          0
          Something often articles about Glazyev began to go out. Maybe he craps for advertising on the site? laughing
    3. Million
      Million 5 November 2015 10: 15 New
      0
      It is not clear only: Putin does not want to change them, can not, or did not the time come?
      1. BMW
        BMW 5 November 2015 13: 55 New
        +3
        Quote: Million
        It is not clear only: Putin does not want to change them, can not, or did not the time come?

        How can I take and change myself, friends, relatives?
    4. Nick
      Nick 5 November 2015 10: 42 New
      0
      Quote: VadimL
      So far, in the economic bloc of our government, such as Ulyukaev and Siluanov, we do not see a normal economy. It's time to change them.

      Yes, and the Central Bank tovarisch clearly did not succeed ....
    5. Altona
      Altona 5 November 2015 11: 37 New
      +1
      Quote: VadimL
      So far, in the economic bloc of our government, such as Ulyukaev and Siluanov, we do not see a normal economy. It's time to change them.

      -----------------------------------
      Ulyukaev, Siluanov, Nabiullina - three stupid or corrupt ...
    6. yuriy55
      yuriy55 5 November 2015 15: 58 New
      +1
      Believe me, IP is not the most advanced economy, but in two decades it has turned the country into a superpower. So, you don't need to invent anything. The new is the well-forgotten old. As soon as we stop evaluating the ruble as "green", the entire economy will begin to recover. yes
  2. SPACE
    SPACE 5 November 2015 06: 49 New
    +3
    Well, they will lower the rate, start issuing cheap loans, pump up the economy with a cheap ruble, the question is, who will get it in an open economy? Foreign businessmen and all other speculators who spat on production, as well as local "unfounded patriots" on domestic goods, some need a clean dollar, others also a dollar product, the increased demand for which will cause its growth in relation to the ruble, the ruble is simply even more depreciate, inflation will continue to rise, and dollars will be taken out of the Russian economy, they will buy Western goods with them, thereby actually financing their foreign production at our expense, in exchange they will send very expensive iPhones beads to Russia for the withdrawn dollars, their production will continue to fall. And to compare the United States, Europe, Japan, India, and China with powerful production, sales markets, competitive goods, the author is disingenuous, in their case cheap loans will really contribute to the growth of their production ... Russia should have another way, cheap loans through state-controlled enterprises for targeted programs, which in general is being done. And Glazyev’s words sound naive because we need to take an example from the developed world))) I would like to ask Mr. Glazyev, from what world? Who introduced the sanctions? negative
    ZY Right now, an elephant herd of overexcited "smart" economic patriots and the liberals who support them will come running, who will say that "Glazyev's Head" and Putin's government will not laughing In general, everything is as always "you lie to a fool with three boxes and do whatever you want with him" fool
    1. dsi
      dsi 5 November 2015 07: 03 New
      0
      Russia should have a different path, cheap loans through state-controlled enterprises for targeted programs, which, in general, is being done.

      Have you read the article carefully?
      Unlike the advanced countries, Russia, instead of reducing these rates and increasing cash flow, pursues a policy of raising them. But when we raise interest rates, we get a slowdown in production and GDP growth rates. The value of money begins to exceed the profitability in most industries. Currently, only the mining industry and the chemical and technological complex of Russia have sufficient profitability to take loans at our interest rates. And no one thinks that almost half of the stock capital of industry is formed through bank loans. As a result, enterprises are faced with a choice: either to curtail production and repay loans, reducing working capital and raising prices to compensate for costs, or go bankrupt.
    2. Nikolay K
      Nikolay K 5 November 2015 08: 21 New
      0
      Correctly say that in the current conditions, mindless pumping of money into the economy in the conditions of a FREE financial market will lead to nothing but acceleration of inflation. Exactly because of this, the items proposed by the author of 1 and 2 will not work. The fact is that we now do not have, in the full sense of the word, a free financial market, it is one-sided, it works like a valve only in one direction: capital outflows. There is no reason to expect a return inflow due to sanctions, unless of course we do not take into account short-term speculators who are ready to invest no less than 30% per annum in foreign currency. Therefore, any pumping of money within the country will only lead to a drop in the ruble and an outflow of capital.
      1. Nikolay K
        Nikolay K 5 November 2015 08: 36 New
        +1
        Any economic growth is built on investment. Now growth is impossible, because investing in our economy is simply UNFAVORABLE, well, we have very few projects that will yield higher returns than current credit rates. We even have speculators investing, the prospects are not clear. Familiar bankers say: yes, real estate has fallen in price, but we will not invest, what is the point when the ruble falls, and real estate in rubles almost does not grow. We wait until the ruble falls. And they are sitting on a bag of money. Thus, a key issue in stimulating our economy is a significant reduction in interest rates. It seems to be simple and nobody argues with that. But everyone understands that simply pumping money into the economy will bring most of them to the foreign exchange market, which means the ruble will fall even further, inflation will rise, the living standards of the population will fall, and most importantly, speculators will once again receive confirmation of the correctness of their position: you need to invest in the dollar , but not in the real economy. And practice shows that this is exactly what is happening. Actually the discussion is about what can be done in such conditions.
        1. Nikolay K
          Nikolay K 5 November 2015 08: 50 New
          +1
          Some, including Glase and the author of the article, offer to solve this problem administratively. Allocate cheap money targetedly, monitor their intended use. The Central Bank to tighten measures against currency speculators, to participate more actively in foreign exchange trading, if necessary, using foreign exchange reserves. In a word, FORCING investors to invest not in currency speculation, but in the real economy. Alas, in my opinion, this strategy is doomed to failure. Money is the air of the economy, it also needs it, but it is just as light and fleeting. I am sure, despite all the tricks and obstacles, the money will go to where it is profitable for them, and not where the government wants it, that is, again, to buy dollars. What can I say, if, despite all the tricks of the Central Bank, the currency control system and a bunch of articles in the criminal code, we still have hundreds of billions of dollars illegally withdrawn abroad. The question arises: is it possible to make it so that the entrepreneur is FAVORABLE to invest in the real Russian economy.
          1. Nikolay K
            Nikolay K 5 November 2015 09: 08 New
            +2
            In my opinion, the only option now to achieve this is to make investments in currency NOT PROFITABLE. How? It's very simple: to abandon the floating ruble exchange rate, it is pegged to a basket of world currencies. A reasonable question arises: what about free financial markets, because this is a step back, it will scare away international investors. Yes, this is a step back. And despite the fact that I have always been for economic freedom, in this case it will not be worse for us, simply because there are simply no foreign investors now, sanctions have closed access to Russia. But after that, you can safely reduce interest rates and flood the market with money. If you want to buy currency with them, please, but there is no point in it if it does not grow. In addition, by pegging the ruble to a basket of currencies, we are talking about the fact that it becomes more stable than any currency included in this basket, incl. dollar. What is left for the "unfortunate" domestic investors to do? That's right, invest in Russian. For a start, into speculative assets like the same real estate, then into trade and construction, and then the development of domestic production is not far off. After all, the most important thing is that we will be able to get a real loan rate of 5-7% per annum. Believe me, if there are a lot of people willing to invest such money in the country. This is the import substitution of capital.
            1. SPACE
              SPACE 5 November 2015 09: 50 New
              0
              Quote: Nikolai K
              In my opinion, the only option now to achieve this is to make UNFITABLE investments in foreign currency. How? Very simple:

              good It is very reasonable that this will not be the best option, rather forced, as approximately in Uzbekistan, but I think it’s too early, although rumors are already coming, I think the Russian government is waiting and has reserved it as a last resort, a case of radical behavior of the West, so to speak, a backup option. So welcome back to the future, in the USSR, here the communists and patriots will be glad that we will see laughing
              1. Andrei from Chelyabinsk
                Andrei from Chelyabinsk 5 November 2015 10: 47 New
                +2
                Quote: Nikolai K
                I am sure, despite all the tricks and obstacles, the money will go where it is profitable for them, and not where the government wants it, that is, again, in the purchase of dollars.

                It is solved elementarily. We create the Fund for Domestic Investments, launch the machine, print money and put it in this very fund. After that, we allow the SB, VTB, RSHB and other state-owned banks to issue investment loans for 10 years at 3% per annum to anyone who wants it, provided that:
                1) "Anyone" is a manufacturing facility.
                2) According to the investment loan, only DOMESTIC (in the sense of domestic production and not used) equipment will be purchased (checked by the bank, including at the time of payment of bills for the supply of equipment)
                3) The only pledge for such a loan is acquired equipment.
                All. There will be some abuses, but not too many - the base mass will go as intended
                This is only one option - and there are VERY many of them. Government, please, tell me laughing
                Quote: SPACE
                So welcome back to the future, in the USSR

                Do not dramatize :) And understand, finally - we MANDATORY need to increase the money supply in circulation. Otherwise, we will be trailing behind the global economy for another 100500 years. The only question is to do it competently - but there are methods for this.
                There are also methods for accelerated development of the real sector of the economy ... everything is there. It would be a desire.
                1. Yuyuka
                  Yuyuka 5 November 2015 13: 34 New
                  0
                  It is solved elementarily. We create the Fund for Domestic Investments, launch the machine, print money and put it in this very fund. After that, we allow the SB, VTB, RSHB and other state-owned banks to issue investment loans for 10 years at 3% per annum to anyone who wants it, provided that:
                  1) "Anyone" is a manufacturing facility.
                  2) According to the investment loan, only DOMESTIC (in the sense of domestic production and not used) equipment will be purchased (checked by the bank, including at the time of payment of bills for the supply of equipment)
                  3) The only pledge for such a loan is acquired equipment.
                  All. There will be some abuses, but not too many - the base mass will go as intended
                  This is only one option - and there are VERY many of them. Government, please, tell me


                  I fully support !!! Unfortunately, there are many of us so smart, who want to start their own production, but do not have enough cash in addition to the brains, unlike those who have cash. Of course, they also have brains, but they are more turned towards the golden toilet bowls. And therefore, as Khazanov said, "There is not enough for everyone! Because there are many, but only a little ..." I often cite an example - "15 years": add 15 years to 1917 and compare what was at the beginning of the period and in the end, 1945-1960 ... well, 1991-2006 ... and now it's 2015. How, grit, ... your mother! such a country .........!
                2. Nikolay K
                  Nikolay K 5 November 2015 23: 39 New
                  0
                  Where now you will find such a quantity of DOMESTIC equipment, it simply does not exist. Machine tool building is almost absent as a class. And if you are allowed to buy imported equipment, then it is easy to withdraw money abroad under the guise. And with domestic equipment it is done very simply: the price is tripled and the money received at 3% of the state is invested in dollars, and the equipment can be scraped. Any artificially designed circuit is easily bypassed.
                  1. Andrei from Chelyabinsk
                    Andrei from Chelyabinsk 6 November 2015 11: 50 New
                    0
                    Quote: Nikolai K
                    Where now you will find such a quantity of DOMESTIC equipment, it simply does not exist. Machine tool building is almost absent as a class.

                    Well, why not? There is. A lot of power equipment, transport, special equipment, etc. are produced in the Russian Federation, and everything is bad with machine tool construction, but you can still buy a lot of your own. But the most interesting thing is that such loans form a solvent demand for many types of equipment, and the creation of enterprises for the production of the most popular of them can also be financed with printed money.
                    Quote: Nikolai K
                    And with domestic equipment it is done very simply: the price is tripled and the money received at 3% from the state is invested in dollars, and the equipment can be scraped

                    First, you will understand how investment loans are issued in general. First of all, no one will give you money from an investment loan. The bank pays for your contract for the supply of equipment. And he will rip off half a million pieces of paper from you and your supplier, and the security service will check 33 times in order to be sure that you are not chasing another gray scheme, but are working with a real equipment manufacturer. And secondly, the bank's oversight behind the pledged property is such that you will not hand it over to any scrap metal, and you will not show bullshit instead of equipment - there people are no worse than you, for a “bullshit” deposit you will be punished for a fraudulent scheme and immediately return credit funds (and not only according to the investment loan, but on all loans of this bank) in the amount of 100%. And this is today - well, tomorrow you will be urgently asked to return the borrowed funds to the rest of the banks
                  2. The comment was deleted.
    3. atalef
      atalef 5 November 2015 18: 52 New
      +1
      Quote: SPACE
      Well, they will lower the rate, start issuing cheap loans, pump up the economy with a cheap ruble, and who is to get it in an open economy?

      well, it’s clear to whom. and the consequences in the form of inflation - of course to you.
      Quote: SPACE
      Foreign businessmen and all other speculators

      OK . and speculate than 7 rubles 7 and what in return? Rubles do not seem to be broken. they need to be bought somehow (if speculators)
      Quote: SPACE
      And to compare the USA, Europe, Japan, India, and China with powerful production, sales markets, competitive products, the author is disingenuous, in their case cheap loans will really contributed to the growth of their production

      that is why. what do they have production
      Quote: SPACE
      Russia should have a different path, cheap loans through state-controlled enterprises for targeted programs, which is generally done

      so how are you doing? And as for the other way - that's for sure. all have one way. and for some reason Russia should have a special
      Quote: SPACE
      And the words of Glazyev from the fact that we need to take an example from the developed world))) I want to ask Mr. Glazyev, what is this world from? From the one who introduced the sanctions?

      Really. Zimbabwe (like the countries of Africa) did not impose sanctions - you can take an example from them
      In Zimbabwe, all billionaires in general (among other things, dollar)
      1. SPACE
        SPACE 5 November 2015 20: 45 New
        0
        Quote: atalef
        OK . and speculate than 7 rubles 7 and what in return? Rubles do not seem to be broken. they need to be bought somehow (if speculators)

        A friend, he said, takes a cheap state loan for the development of agriculture, travels to China, buys goods for dollars, sells to the country, says that it is more profitable than farming and not so difficult.
        Quote: atalef
        so how are you doing? And as for the other way - that's for sure. all have one way. and for some reason Russia should have a special

        Of course there is, but this process is not really quick and gradual, money-production-goods-market-money and a new turn, where the key is the market, the demand or demand that pulls everything else along the chain, it's like a pipe with a pump and a valve , the more money you don’t pour into the system, the surplus will go by, the production pump does not make sense to increase if the demand is low, the shutter is covered. There must be a balance, everything must develop simultaneously. Particularly this means controlled and managed in an open market and external aggression in the form of lower oil prices and sanctions.
  3. EvgNik
    EvgNik 5 November 2015 06: 53 New
    +5
    protection and stability of the rublewhich he exercises independently of other public authorities. This is from Wiki. About the Central Bank.
    It turns out that the Central Bank does not fulfill its main function. When the leadership is incompetent or does not fulfill its duties, it is changed. And why people who destroy the state’s economy remain in their places - it’s absolutely incomprehensible.
    1. Yuyuka
      Yuyuka 5 November 2015 13: 20 New
      +2
      The question is - is there a guide over them ?? belay in my opinion, our leaders of the highest rank are inviolable from any side, either behind the scenes appointed from "their" circle, or as needed - "sewed on soap"! And the team is one! There are no business executives, but there are hozyavki - they manage the national (former national) property.
      1. Nikolay K
        Nikolay K 5 November 2015 23: 43 New
        0
        Well, Putin does not understand the economy. And Dima is generally unclear what he is doing in the government, he just got a place for past achievements.
  4. pat
    pat 5 November 2015 07: 02 New
    +2
    Vadim, U and S need to be hanged on "all sins". And when the ruble "dangles like a g. In the hole" you can safely steal and write off your sins for the collapse of the economy.
  5. Jarilo
    Jarilo 5 November 2015 07: 18 New
    +2
    Impossible conditions for domestic investment and excellent conditions for external. Who benefits from this?
  6. V.ic
    V.ic 5 November 2015 07: 29 New
    +3
    The ruble is a weapon in financial wars, but now (I am convinced of this) it is a weapon in the wrong hands and it kills our economy, or rather, what remains of it.
    1. yuriy55
      yuriy55 5 November 2015 15: 51 New
      0
      A weak ruble is a worthless weapon ... yes
  7. pat
    pat 5 November 2015 07: 37 New
    +3
    To launder power for the "collapse of the economy" is the purpose of the article or to justify the robberies of the Russians?
    The guilty are "sanctions"
    And the way to maintain power is to divide the people into castes, take away what you have earned, ..
    The Siluanovs and the Ulyukaevs need to take on that heresy of the government’s economic policy, facts - they don’t even mask them.
  8. Neophyte
    Neophyte 5 November 2015 08: 20 New
    +3
    If there are more than 75% of non-residents in the economy, the question for the president is: how long will we dance to the tune of foreign businessmen? What prevents this anthill?
    Even more, praises the policy of the Central Bank and the prime minister!
    1. Nikolay K
      Nikolay K 5 November 2015 23: 46 New
      0
      Well, for the most part, this is our money, stolen in the country or taken to offshore just in case.
  9. Was mammoth
    Was mammoth 5 November 2015 08: 37 New
    +2
    HSE is another institution. But, the numbers voiced by them raise questions. S. Glazyev gives an answer to some of them.
    "HSE experts warn of the danger of being left without a fleet and missiles "
    https://news.mail.ru/economics/23859076/?frommail=1
  10. akudr48
    akudr48 5 November 2015 09: 36 New
    +3
    Glazyev’s assessments, speeches and proposals are directed and concern 2 subjects

    a) the people of the country

    b) the country's leader

    Glazyev says to the people that they are stealing from him the most that neither, in a systematic way, through the Central Bank and the financial system. With the conclusion of the loot for the cordon. They have been stealing in their pockets for 25 years and will steal further. And do not be surprised at poverty therefore.
    They will steal until the people give 126% approval to their leader.
    Or until the changes in governing the country that Glazyev proposes.

    Glazyev says to the leader that the crooks are openly operating before his eyes, and that victories with a score of 126% - 0% over the people mean nothing, because behind them and under them there is a void, an abyss.
    You can step back and overcome the abyss through the proposed changes.

    But the situation with Glazyev’s initiatives will usually be blabbed, and people will habitually forget, the leader will habitually say yes and do not.
  11. NordUral
    NordUral 5 November 2015 09: 42 New
    +2
    Our enemy is the government of Russia and the Central Bank (certainly not ours). And the question arises - if Putin is the President of Russia, then why not heed Glazyev and let his like-minded people put their ideas into practice?
    1. yuriy55
      yuriy55 5 November 2015 15: 50 New
      0
      2. Protecting and ensuring the stability of the ruble - the main function of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation, which it exercises independently of other public authorities. (Constitution of the Russian Federation)
      It is for this that the head of the Central Bank, Ms. Nubiullina, was recognized as the best ... what
  12. chunga-changa
    chunga-changa 5 November 2015 10: 37 New
    +4
    I’m embarrassed to ask, is Putin up to date with the situation, or are they hiding from him?)
    1. yuriy55
      yuriy55 5 November 2015 15: 43 New
      0
      Do not be shy, ask. Maybe this is the rule since 2000 in the ignorance of happy ... laughing
      I am sure that you will receive the correct answer to your correct question ...
    2. Nikolay K
      Nikolay K 5 November 2015 23: 51 New
      0
      For him it is a dark forest. How many economists, so many opinions, often opposing. And he, as a scout, was used to getting information from different sources and not making all bets on one horse. Therefore, today we are implementing the brilliant idea of ​​one economist, tomorrow another, in short, some in the woods, some for firewood. Our state does not have a single economic policy.
  13. Tambov Wolf
    Tambov Wolf 5 November 2015 11: 50 New
    +8
    Mr. Putin appoints them all himself, praises them for their excellent work, awards them with orders and medals, saves them from prison and in the worst possible situation, gives them the opportunity to go abroad with their loot in Russia (Serdyukov, Skrynnik, Vasilyeva, Nevzlin, Chubais, Gref and hundreds of others). And now justify that this is not so. And then you look at the comments, again screaming that the king is good, but the ....
  14. Mama_Cholli
    Mama_Cholli 5 November 2015 12: 24 New
    +3
    "strengthening the ruble is the most important task of the Central Bank" - I read this far and realized that (as usual) "something went wrong" ...

    I wonder how to understand this if oil, gas, timber, ore is sold on the foreign market for bucks and euros? Maybe not one Central Bank is to blame?
  15. 3vs
    3vs 5 November 2015 12: 32 New
    +1
    I would like the administrators to bring to this article an article of the notorious in narrow circles ( laughing ) crimsonalter.
    The article is called "The Future of the Russian Economy: Between Starvation and Cocaine"
    http://crimsonalter.livejournal.com/79371.html

    The author directly spread on the wall of the academician with his initiatives!
    I would also like to discuss this article.
  16. yuriy55
    yuriy55 5 November 2015 15: 39 New
    0
    I would like to make a proposal for taxation of all sorts of "businessyugs" exporting capital abroad. Let's do as much as we bring in - and take out as much. The rest after the payment of the progressive tax ... And then we only hear forecasts about export ... Let me ask you, where exactly? Why do you need so much? capital will not pull the scrotum, in the sense of the money?
    Our, Russian, national ... I do not like it, look cheaper in the other direction ... am
    1. Nikolay K
      Nikolay K 5 November 2015 23: 55 New
      +1
      You apparently do not know at all how money is withdrawn from the country. You still suggest how you put it to the businessmen who publicly becomes in a corner and beat themselves with rods. A very effective measure will certainly help to save our capital.