Western experts made a mistake in assessing the potential of the armed forces of Russia ("The Brookings Institution", USA)




Since the appearance of the first signs of Russia's military presence at the airport in Latakia, many different theories have arisen about Russia’s strategy in Syria, its intentions, and how far it (and other countries) is ready to go. However, many of these theories are initially based on incorrect assumptions.

Many analysts have called the Russian armed forces weak, and some experts even pointed to specific problems that exist in the air and sea links of Russia in Syria. However, given the performance of the Russian military in Syria at the current time, these estimates turned out to be incorrect. On the contrary, Russia has demonstrated that it has the necessary potential (as well as readiness) to deploy conventional armed forces and to solve certain political tasks.

In the air

Russian planes make a significant number of sorties every day, demonstrating notable successes. According to current estimates, the daily number of departures ranges from 48 to 96. It's a lot. On this occasion, the New York Times wrote the following: “Russian combat aircraft, at least at the moment, carry out almost as many air strikes against insurgents opposing the government of President Bashar al-Assad every day as a coalition led by the United States applied to ISIS is monthly this year. ”

In the course of the strikes, Russia has already destroyed a number of objects of anti-Assad rebel formations. For example, there are reports that the rebel leader Basil Zamo, the commander of the First Coastal Division and the former captain of the Syrian army, died as a result of the Russian 19 airstrikes in October. In another battle, the commander of the Nur al-Din al-Zinki formation was killed.

Can Russia continue to maintain such intensity of its air campaign? Maybe. Almost none of our NATO allies can do what Russia is doing in the sky over Syria. This was the sad lesson of both NATO air campaigns in Kosovo and Libya.

On the sea

Western experts called the Russian fleet "more rusty than ready for battle." However, Russia, to everyone’s surprise, is modernizing older ships and building new ones. The naval forces of Russia have demonstrated quite significant potential: the corvettes and frigates that make up the Caspian flotilla, can strike with cruise missiles at targets at a distance of 1,5 thousand kilometers. Nobody knew this before. For comparison: American coastal warships such as Freedom and Independence have a significantly greater displacement - approximately 2900 and 3 tons, respectively - but do not have any capabilities to deliver cruise missile attacks or similar potential in projecting force.

This was a revelation. This turned out to be a powerful signal for the West, and one commentator even suggested that the Russian Caspian flotilla was the factor that radically changed the situation. Possessing small, inexpensive, technologically simple and easy-to-manufacture ships, the Russian fleet demonstrates unique capabilities, emphasizing the results of the modernization, which remained largely unnoticed.

Many observers also questioned the ability of the naval forces of Russia - especially the Black Sea Fleet - to conduct long-term operations. However, over the past three years, Russia has been providing stable supplies weapons and the equipment of the army of Assad through the ports of Latakia and Tartus, and there is no reason to believe that these supplies may cease. Western countries should expect that, given the higher degree of involvement of the Russian armed forces in Syria, Russia will increase its maritime logistics capabilities to support its coalition partners acting on the side of President Al-Assad. And, apparently, this is exactly what Russia is doing.

The Black Sea Fleet turned out to be an invaluable asset for Russia and its partners in Syria. In particular, the flagship of the Black Sea Fleet, the missile cruiser "Moscow", as well as a number of accompanying surface combat ships were deployed off the coast of Syria to provide air defense and missile defense. Critics claim that these are old ships with obsolete technologies. If you compare them with the majority of the courts of NATO, then this is true, but to fulfill the tasks set, they are quite enough. Moreover, the deployment of these ships demonstrates the capabilities and intentions of Russia to achieve certain foreign policy objectives. Thus, these ships pose a significant threat that NATO strategists cannot simply write off.

By all indications, over the past few years, Russia has been creating and expanding its navy, which corresponds to the foreign policy goals it has declared. Time will tell the true state of affairs, but until we have irrefutable evidence of the inevitable collapse of the Russian navy, experts should not make hasty predictions that do not reflect real facts.

The consequences of the distortion of the possibilities of Russia

Many assessments of what the Russian armed forces are capable or incapable of were inaccurate. This is not just a matter of distorting the facts. Much more alarming is the fact that because of this, Western countries will not be able to adequately predict how far Moscow is ready to go in its Syrian campaign. While Western analysts - and after them Western leaders - will try to discredit Russia's military potential, Moscow will most likely continue to use every opportunity to show the fallacy of such assessments.
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  1. yuriy55 1 November 2015 04: 48 New
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    Western experts made a mistake in assessing the potential of the Russian armed forces

    First time, perhaps? Finish communication with the spirits of Napoleon and Hitler. Try chatting with Otto von Bismarck. yes
    1. venaya 1 November 2015 06: 44 New
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      Quote: yuriy55
      ... Try chatting with Otto von Bismarck.

      Hmm .. I must say that the development of the idea of ​​creating "Ukraine" belongs to him too. A rather subtle politician, he was not fully a friend of Russia, he simply saw other, alternative methods of dealing with such a huge country, namely, the method of dividing it into historical components that were not substantiated in historical terms. As we now see all this, this method, to our chagrin, had a real result in the form of the embodiment of his ideas, and very deplorable for all of us. Let me remind you what Alexander III said: "Russia has only two allies ... ".
      1. science fiction writer 1 November 2015 08: 59 New
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        Western experts made a mistake in assessing the potential of the Russian armed forces

        First time, perhaps?

        They were not mistaken in evaluating us, they stopped evaluating us since 1991,
        but what they really made a mistake is in evaluating themselves.
      2. The comment was deleted.
      3. crumb 1 November 2015 15: 54 New
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        German Chancellor Otto von Bismarck once said:
        “There is nothing more vile and disgusting than the so-called“ Ukrainians ”!
        This rabble, nurtured by the Poles from the most vile scum of the Russian people (killers, careerists, reptiles before the power of the intelligentsia), is ready to kill their own father and mother for power and a profitable place!
        These geeks are ready to tear their fellow tribesmen, and not even for the sake of profit,
        but for the sake of satisfying their base instincts,
        nothing holy to them
        betrayal is the norm for them,
        they are wretched minds, vicious, envious, cunning with a special cunning.
        These nonhumans have absorbed all the worst and basest things from Russians, Poles, and Austrians, for good qualities in their soul there was no place left.
        Most of all they hate their benefactors,
        those who did them good
        and are ready to grovel in every way before the powers that be.
        They’re not adapted to anything and can only do primitive work,
        they could never create their own state,
        many countries drove them like a ball all over Europe,
        slave instincts have so eaten into them
        that they covered their whole essence with disgusting ulcers! ”
        OTTO VON BISMARK (1815-1898)
        1. ordin64 1 November 2015 17: 06 New
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          Krosh erred door. Ukrainians are not in the subject.
          1. andrewkor 1 November 2015 17: 34 New
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            he simply answered the comment “G. Colonel”
        2. andrewkor 1 November 2015 17: 32 New
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          Well done for not being too lazy and dug up the classics. Hold +
        3. Orionvit 2 November 2015 23: 30 New
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          Great quote. I see it every day, a plus from me.
  2. mig31 1 November 2015 04: 57 New
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    Whatever our "partners" say, but we are all getting stronger !, and getting stronger !, to the "joy" of NATO and the United States ...
    1. venaya 1 November 2015 05: 32 New
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      Quote: mig31
      Whatever our "partners" say, but we are all getting stronger !, and getting stronger !, to the "joy" of NATO and the United States ...

      I must say that they themselves achieved this with their super-impudent, inexplicable actions.
      1. ava09 1 November 2015 07: 15 New
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        Quote: venaya
        I must say that they themselves achieved this with their super-impudent, inexplicable actions.


        Your approach means that you simply do not want to understand the geopolitical situation. There is no place in it for emotions and "inexplicable" ...-)
        1. venaya 1 November 2015 08: 09 New
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          Quote: ava09
          ... just do not want to understand the geopolitical situation. There is no place in it for emotions and "inexplicable" ...-)

          From the point of view of an ordinary, normal person, the behavior of politicians is really inexplicable. The politicians themselves are another matter: their behavior and actions do not fall within the framework of the norms of ordinary people, perhaps you don’t know just that. There is even such a line of science: "degeneralogy", well developed and based on the work of a psychiatrist prof. Lombroso. As an example, I want to recall the case where it was the 20-year-old lieutenant Napoleon who received the rank of general: it happened in a tavern, as a result of extremely immoderate drinking of strong drinks, where he, in a state of deep alcoholic intoxication, was awarded the extraordinary rank of general, and this 20 years old. In vain you accuse a person of some kind of ignorance, misunderstanding, one at a time, a short post, without really knowing the person. It is not worth doing this so swiftly.
          1. andrewkor 1 November 2015 17: 51 New
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            I certainly have no doubt that you deservedly got your stars, BUT your anecdote about the Great Leader smells bad. After taking the rebellious Toulon according to Bonaparte’s plan on Dec. 17, 1793, the 24-year-old artillery captain was promoted to brigadier generals. In 1795. suppressed the rebellion in Paris and was justly appointed commander of the Paris garrison, and in 1796 he led the army in Italy “6 victories in 6 days”, which aroused the admiration of Suvorov himself. Can you tell me what kind of pub Bonaparte received the general epaulettes in?
            1. venaya 1 November 2015 19: 57 New
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              Quote: andrewkor
              Do not tell me in which ...

              I agree that the issue with the source of information in our world is more than relevant, I have devoted many posts to this issue. My info, quite old, I like your version more, but it was my answer to ava09 lunges, maybe you didn’t notice it. The actions of the powerful do not really have an explanation from the point of view of the logic of a normal person, but a high-class psychiatrist explains this behavior from a professional point of view. The position of ava09 here is notable for its incompetence, which is not surprising. Perhaps the example itself should have been chosen differently, since there are plenty of them.
      2. andrewkor 1 November 2015 17: 36 New
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        I want to correct you. Americans and others like them act justly. And Russia is polite and legitimate.
  3. Vova Vasilievich 1 November 2015 05: 02 New
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    Underestimating the enemy is like losing to him. God forbid we step on this rake in the future. In the meantime, we enjoy the blindness of the "elect."
  4. Magic archer 1 November 2015 05: 06 New
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    90 had a lot of articles about our army and navy, and many of them in a ridiculous and sneaky tone. The Russians lost everything, the technology rusted, and the personnel degraded. I even remember the article of one clown who predicted the complete collapse of all our defense power and protectorate over NATO is at the head of the USA! And now, after some 15-20 years, we are reading absolutely opposite articles! So we are moving in the right direction !!! good
  5. Vladimyrych 1 November 2015 05: 17 New
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    I could be wrong, but when the opponent praises me, for some reason I’m straining on the contrary and I think that I’m doing something wrong ...
  6. shinobi 1 November 2015 05: 23 New
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    The British queen, I don’t remember which account, told her successor the following before going to retire: There is one oddity with Russia, having lost another geopolitical conflict to the West, it always increases its territory.
  7. Siberia 9444 1 November 2015 05: 26 New
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    Some played with tolerance, others with exclusivity, and we forge a sword and a sword, but this is not enough when 70% of the new equipment in the troops will be there, as the GDP said, then you can breathe in calmly.
    1. dvg79 2 November 2015 10: 41 New
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      Now often we really forge "shit".
  8. sl22277 1 November 2015 05: 35 New
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    Western experts were not mistaken, but engaged in self-deception. They were lazy and dumb from understanding of their often imaginary superiority. Russia will go in Syria as far as it will be needed! The Islamic state is a very dangerous organization and you need to fight them to the end!
    1. Rurikovich 1 November 2015 06: 45 New
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      Totally agree with you! good hi
    2. Azitral 1 November 2015 10: 19 New
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      I agree. What is the point of having an all-pervasive superintelligence if you do not take into account uncomfortable facts, and only those that suit you draw conclusions? This seems to be chronic in the USA: they had the opportunity to read Japanese ciphers, but they made conclusions from them, the ones they like. There is nothing more dangerous than believing in your own propaganda.
      1. andrewkor 1 November 2015 17: 57 New
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        I agree with you. This resembles the situation on the eve of July 22, 1941. with Stalin. Whoever wants to be deceived will be deceived.
  9. slizhov 1 November 2015 06: 42 New
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    As we can see, all Western analysts are constantly miscalculating everything about successes in Russia.
    The desire to see our country in ruins outweighs reality and common sense.
    So, we will not show interest in those who do not want to say anything good about our Fatherland, including in economic terms. The Ulyukaevs, Kudrins and Siluanovs are also those EXPERTS who, for the third year, say that we are so shitty that it is better to surrender to the West ...
    1. andrewkor 1 November 2015 17: 59 New
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      I agree with you. This resembles the situation on the eve of July 22, 1941. with Stalin. Whoever wants to be deceived will be deceived.
  10. meriem1 1 November 2015 06: 44 New
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    In particular, the flagship of the Black Sea Fleet, the missile cruiser “Moscow”, as well as a number of escorting surface warships were deployed off the coast of Syria to provide air defense and missile defense. Critics say these are old ships with obsolete technology.


    Oh well. Especially the flagship is outdated ????))) He was like a killer of aircraft carriers, so he remained! But the "chosen ones" have a brain liquefaction and memory loss on their faces.
  11. Mountain shooter 1 November 2015 06: 50 New
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    Islamic state should not be. This mattress project threatens the creation of a Muslim belt from Morocco to Indonesia. They don’t understand this? Therefore, Russia is doing everything right. Given the mentality of the barmalei. They should suffer anuresis as soon as they remember Russia and its army.
    1. Azitral 1 November 2015 10: 46 New
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      Not Muslim. He already is. Islamist.
  12. Neophyte 1 November 2015 07: 08 New
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    A good recognition of Western analysts! Russia has always had an amazing ability to be reborn thanks to the stamina of a talented people! Will there still be?
    1. Black Colonel 1 November 2015 14: 44 New
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      In Russia, much depends on the leader of the country.
  13. lexx2038 1 November 2015 07: 30 New
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    They frantically think and wonder if it is possible to bite Russia in this situation, or still preserve their teeth - no matter what happens.
  14. kartalovkolya 1 November 2015 08: 44 New
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    There is only one conclusion from the article: US and NATO intelligence is not worth the money that was spent on them, and as for the so-called “analysts,” it seems that their conclusions are based on the study of “urine and feces tests” at factory polyclinic No. 1 of the city of Muhosk! But to be serious, it must be noted that the idea of ​​"exclusivity" played a very cruel joke with the United States and its allies: overestimating their abilities and capabilities led to an underestimation of the capabilities and, most importantly, of Putin’s ABILITIES to conduct such serious operations! Self-confidence didn’t bring anyone to good! (Especially with advisers like Obama)
    1. andrewkor 1 November 2015 17: 59 New
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      I agree with you. This resembles the situation on the eve of July 22, 1941. with Stalin. Whoever wants to be deceived will be deceived.
  15. Frigate 1 November 2015 10: 15 New
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    Yes, Western experts were mistaken, but it’s too early to talk about the real strength of the Russian army. For the enemy, against whom the Russian army is acting, is frankly weak in armament. There is no resistance to Russian aircraft, either in the air or from the ground.
  16. crambol 1 November 2015 10: 16 New
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    The arrogance of the West played a trick on him: He sees only his own as excellent. Something good cannot be a priori. But no! Our Kulibins in technology, mathematics, and other sciences have always stood at the pinnacle of knowledge. So it was, it will be so. I hope so. If only the next reformer from the government doesn’t completely ruin our science.


  17. APASUS 1 November 2015 10: 18 New
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    Wrong in relation to Russia ................. now they are aware of their mistake, but this does not change their policy in relation to us, does not take into account the views of Russia and what? Americans usually need really good bashing in order to change their minds, so the main events seem to come!
  18. roskot 1 November 2015 11: 40 New
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    While the exceptional ones admired their exclusivity in the mirror, Russia
    reborn. The mirror no longer helps. It remains to bite the teeth.
  19. Andryukha G 1 November 2015 12: 20 New
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    90% in the West and the USA are absolutely sure that in the last World War the victory over fascist Germany was achieved only thanks to the participation of the Western coalition and the USA (and the true truth is known to a narrow circle of foreign historians and the remaining participants in the war), therefore, the younger generation and existing foreign analysts and military of various ranks misconception about the potential and strength of the Russian army, its past and present victories. Hitler, as is known, also had a low opinion of the Red Army.
    1. I am Russian 1 November 2015 12: 23 New
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      All the rest are watching Hollywood films, in fact, as in the former USSR.
  20. cniza 1 November 2015 12: 48 New
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    Quote: mig31
    Whatever our "partners" say, but we are all getting stronger !, and getting stronger !, to the "joy" of NATO and the United States ...




    And we will continue in the same vein, and most importantly, they absolutely do not understand where and what is getting stronger with us.
  21. cniza 1 November 2015 12: 51 New
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    Quote: Siberia 9444
    Some played with tolerance, others with exclusivity, and we forge a sword and a sword, but this is not enough when 70% of the new equipment in the troops will be there, as the GDP said, then you can breathe in calmly.



    “And Vaska is listening and eating” and they don’t know how to behave now.
  22. NIKNN 1 November 2015 13: 12 New
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    There is only one conclusion from the article: US and NATO intelligence is not worth the money that was spent on them, and as for the so-called “analysts,” it seems that their conclusions are based on the study of “urine and feces tests” at factory polyclinic No. 1 of the city of Muhosk! But to be serious, it must be noted that the idea of ​​"exclusivity" played a very cruel joke with the United States and its allies: overestimating their abilities and capabilities led to an underestimation of the capabilities and, most importantly, of Putin’s ABILITIES to conduct such serious operations! Self-confidence didn’t bring anyone to good! (Especially with advisers like Obama)


    Quote: Vladimir
    I could be wrong, but when the opponent praises me, for some reason I’m straining on the contrary and I think that I’m doing something wrong ...

    That's it! I deeply doubt the incompetence of their intelligence (by the way, the GDP openly admitted that their "fork is one of the best"). One can speak with a stretch about the shortcomings of strategists' analysts and only on the basis that they could not timely provide for alternative steps to prevent the entry of our contingent into Syria. Otherwise, I fully support Vladimir.
  23. X Y Z 1 November 2015 13: 32 New
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    While Western analysts - and followed by Western leaders - will try to discredit Russia's military potential, Moscow will most likely continue to use every opportunity to show the fallacy of such estimates.


    That's it! Western analysts are not just mistaken, they give out what they want to hear at the top. Previously, we have already seen this on Hitler’s analysts. Those who did not agree with the Führer, poorly ended their careers. And analysts also want to eat, drink, make a career and receive substantial salaries. They simply will not be understood and not forgiven if they give out something that does not correspond to the mainstream.
  24. Support 1 November 2015 13: 56 New
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    And for me - so the existence of some states is a civilization mistake ....... and the errors need to be fixed !!
  25. Denis Skiff 1 November 2015 21: 57 New
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    Quote: yuriy55
    Western experts made a mistake in assessing the potential of the Russian armed forces

    First time, perhaps? Finish communication with the spirits of Napoleon and Hitler. Try chatting with Otto von Bismarck. yes

    They will grab another lyule.