Military Review

Syria is writing, Ukraine is in the mind

82
So, by observing everything that is happening in the Middle East, a certain geopolitical conclusion can be made: the United States and its allies did not even have a fair click, but a blow to the nose. And the Middle East scenario has to be played, given the emergence of a new player - Russia. The appearance of a sudden, but spectacular.




The fact that everything is just beginning for Assad may be debatable, but true. Just because no one will pass their positions. Neither Syria nor LIH, nor the United States and his followers. So the Syrian bonfire is still burning and burning. The blessing of those who want to splash gasoline on the fire even more than enough

But before the above, we, in principle, do not have much to do. We have our own shovel, which should be threshed. And this is what I’m talking about.

Yes, the position that Russia occupies today, to some of the "partners" is like a knife near one place. And the space around us will “stagger” with a double eagerness. Do something need something! You want, you do not want, and the Russian bear is necessary either in a cage or in hibernation. At the wrong time, he climbed into the light of day.

If you look at the map, there are plenty of "lights" around us. And even a cursory looking at the list of "fires", the picture is not very. Even if you subtract Syria, where the dance has already gone "with the removal of the stove" (forgive me, the Caspian Sea, which compared with the stove), the list is rather big.

1. Tajikistan (Afghanistan). Afghanistan in brackets, but not in brackets. And the events in Kunduz showed it. It was a reconnaissance battle, the battle showed everything. Now it will be some time quiet.

2. Karabakh It’s still relatively quiet there, but you shouldn’t forget that this is not just a painful point of the region, it’s a whole site. Two lines intertwine around it: Russia-Armenia and Turkey-Azerbaijan. And taking into account some complications with the Turks, there too can go towards ignition.

3. Transnistria. Also a pain point, which is very easy to push. They tried to push, but somehow everything calmed down too quickly. It is impossible to say what happened on the Transnistrian front, but the fact that ours there also worked in full is unambiguous.

4. Ukraine. Naturally. Technical default is just the beginning. Plus, LDNR, in which, frankly, not everything is smooth, even more so. Some actions of the leadership of the republics cause, if not fear, then surprise.

Of course, any of these points could be very hot. In some moment. Moreover, in three of them the presence of "partners" is more than obvious. Afghanistan, Moldova (Romania), Ukraine. With Karabakh it may not be so sad, but there is enough local color from Armenia and Azerbaijan.

Still, Ukraine is the most likely option to start a new cycle of operations "Stop the Bear!"

Yes, the Ukrainian authorities will go to great lengths in order to be able to survive for a certain amount of time. Get more money. Weapons. Techniques. The peaceful life of Ukraine is unprofitable. There is nothing to live for. The economy is in complete disarray. But this has already been said so much that it makes no sense to repeat.

And it turns out that Ukraine in the foreseeable future is the most optimal testing ground in order to distract Russia from Middle Eastern affairs. Bring the focus of instability or another military conflict to our borders. Yes, the interests of the United States in the Ukrainian mess are less and less, after all, the titanic efforts of our management team in the implementation of the Minsk agreements have brought their benefits. Does not burn. Smolders, but does not burn. Despite even some frank oddities in the behavior of LDNR leaders.

The interests of the United States, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Turkey there, in the Middle East. Where Russia broke so immediately and unexpectedly. It turned out about as with the Crimea. We did not expect, but it turned out like.

But do not flatter yourself. It will take a certain amount of time, and the "partners" will work out another plan for the "stabilization of Russia." And they will begin to act. And the actions will be directed precisely to divert attention from Syria. Softly and directly, "zaydanit" in the immediate vicinity except in Ukraine, more and nowhere in principle. So it makes sense to wait for it to light up there.

So really, Syria - Syria, but Ukraine should not be discounted.
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  1. Stranger03
    Stranger03 14 October 2015 06: 24 New
    27
    Ukraine can no longer be taken into account, the country is bankrupt. GDP mockingly suggested that the IMF give 3 a lard to Ukraine to repay the loan to us. But we know that there will be no credit and in December a limited default will be real. But then a flock of lenders will tear the country to pieces.
    1. 2С5
      2С5 14 October 2015 08: 42 New
      33
      FOUR QUESTIONS TO UKRAINIANS
      1. More recently, or rather, during a meeting with Putin, Obama said that in Syria there is no moderate opposition, and there are only international ISIS terrorists.
      rusvesna.su/news/1444084996
      После того, как подразделения ИГИЛ понесли ощутимые потери от российской авиации, а один из их главарей был уничтожен, США стали истерично обвинять Россию в бомбёжке "несуществующей" умеренной оппозиции.
      EVIDENCE, DO YOU STILL BELIEVE THE AMERICANS?
      2. A year and a half, the Ukrainian authorities and Poroshenko personally accused Russia of invading Ukraine, without citing any evidence. In Syria, Russia has shown what the Russian army is that can destroy the enemy with precision weapons without engaging in ground combat.
      EVIDENCE, DO YOU STILL BELIEVE ABOUT RUSSIAN INVASION TO UKRAINE?
      3. During the inauguration, Poroshenko promised the Ukrainians in several days to finish the ATO, to pay 1000 hryvnias per day to the soldiers participating in the ATO, visa-free travel to the EU, .. and much more. He did not fulfill a single promise.
      EVIDENCE, YOU ARE STILL BELIEVING A POWDER?
      4. В украинских СМИ постоянно муссируется тема "нищей и голодной России". В то же время, ежегодно до 5 миллионов украинцев едут на заработки именно в Россию.
      EVIDENCE, DO YOU STILL BELIEVE YOUR MEDIA?
      In that case, I congratulate you - YOU!
      1. Bronis
        Bronis 14 October 2015 08: 54 New
        17
        forgive the moderators .... watch somewhere the latest 1.45.
        1. Mikado
          Mikado 14 October 2015 11: 23 New
          +3
          .. what stubborn m_u_daki they have on television .. wassat
        2. Alex250834
          Alex250834 14 October 2015 12: 14 New
          0
          Putin already knows !!!!
        3. Prometey
          Prometey 14 October 2015 20: 18 New
          0
          Bronis
          Thanks for the video, neighing. Ukrainians annealed, well done. Just level 80 trolling live laughing
      2. The comment was deleted.
    2. kodxnumx
      kodxnumx 14 October 2015 09: 03 New
      +6
      If Bandera does start, then I’m sure it will simply be wet without Minsk 3.
      1. marlin1203
        marlin1203 14 October 2015 09: 49 New
        10
        Никто уже ничего не начнет. "Исключительным" они уже не интересны. Денег нет. Порядка и власти в стране нет. Дееспособной военной организации не существует. Есть группы националистически настроенных отморозков, но серьезной опасности они не представляют. Народ бедствует и бежит. Зима наступает. В общем не позавидуешь "братьям -славянам" No.
        1. panfil
          panfil 14 October 2015 14: 55 New
          +4
          К словам автора можно еще добавить и Японию с ее территориальными претензиями, Южную Осетию и Абхазию. Так что возле наших границ можно накопать еще больше "тлеющих огоньков".
        2. Alena Frolovna
          Alena Frolovna 14 October 2015 17: 05 New
          +2
          Nobody will start anything.


          Ан, нет. Оне думают иначе. Так громко, чтобы все услышали: "Флоту быть"

          "Новости мелькают, как столбы в окошке плацкарты — за ними не поспеть. Радует только, что остаётся нечто вечное. Непреходящее. Чем можно восхищаться без устали.
          Well, and fasting with all my heart ...

          The brave cyborgs blocking the CFD decided that it was not pleasant for dogs of war to sit at the Chornago Sea without a fleet and decided to wipe the same damn pit nose. By launching the Geth frigate man Poroshenko ". No sooner said than done. Peramogli, zdobuly and lustrated a bottle of a bottle on a new vessel, according to a long-standing maritime toradiation:


          Learn Michael Michel Obamkin, as it should! And then you will die - a stupid armless man! Learn and fathom. The main thing is to believe. Believe Michelle!

          PS:

          And what’s there with her? .. Yes, full speed ahead ...



          Paramoga? Fact!
          Yam pihvets? ATO! ..
          Shahimat, vata! ..
          Material: Rich, http://topru.org/25201/flotu-byt/
      2. muhomor
        muhomor 14 October 2015 11: 33 New
        0
        In my opinion, Putin is just dreaming about it in his soul! wassat
    3. Vladimir 1964
      Vladimir 1964 15 October 2015 02: 03 New
      0
      Quote: Stranger03
      Ukraine can no longer be taken into account,


      I'm afraid, Dear Gennady, you are in a hurry. There will still be plenty of problems with this education for us, both economically and geopolitically.

      Something like this, Dear. hi
    4. MSL
      MSL 15 October 2015 19: 18 New
      +1
      Quote: Stranger03
      Ukraine can no longer be taken into account,

      Моё мнение: "Ukraine is already possible not take в расчет,"
  2. The comment was deleted.
  3. Meh-forester
    Meh-forester 14 October 2015 06: 28 New
    11
    And it turns out that Ukraine in the foreseeable future is the most optimal training ground in order to distract Russia from Middle Eastern affairs
    До начала "весеннего потепления" там все будет вялотекуще. ЕС очень нужен русский газ и пока будет холодно, то и украинский конфликт будет в "замороженном" состоянии. Одновременно, за это время Украина "под накачает" своих солдат.
  4. PlotnikoffDD
    PlotnikoffDD 14 October 2015 06: 29 New
    +5
    Время работает против Украины. Пока "злой путин" занят Сирией, они могут передохнуть сами по себе, как тараканы без воды.
  5. Tatar 174
    Tatar 174 14 October 2015 06: 32 New
    +5
    Roman Skomorokhov, what did you want to say about in two places, recalling the strangeness in the behavior of the leaders of LDNR that cause surprise?
  6. Yak28
    Yak28 14 October 2015 06: 34 New
    +1
    The number of Russian planes in Syria is clearly not enough for the victory of Assad’s army or for large-scale offensives. In order for the war in Syria not to become a tyagomotin, it is necessary to increase the number of aircraft well, at least to 150 units. Otherwise, I think it will not burn out
    1. your1970
      your1970 14 October 2015 12: 20 New
      +5
      yes, and a couple of million infantry ... recourse request
      Why is there more aviation? So that the Russian army fought, not the Syrian?
      We did a great job, supported morale, pulled ISIS, created a panic, maybe threw weapons / equipment to the Syrians, now it's their turn.
      The war is in their country, but not in our country ...
  7. venaya
    venaya 14 October 2015 06: 41 New
    0
    Украина - самый вероятный вариант начала нового цикла операций "Остановите медведя!

    And we need to look for similar solutions. Syria was very welcome. You can certainly stop there, but keep Afghanistan in mind, after all, Tajiks live there too. Let's look for something, see, and other options.
    1. exSUman
      exSUman 14 October 2015 15: 24 New
      +2
      Here the Tajiks then fired at us in Fayzabad ... there, in Badakhshan, Afghanistan, and up to Kabul, the Tajiks also live ... Charikar, Salang, Pandsher - territories inhabited by Tajiks ...
    2. exSUman
      exSUman 14 October 2015 15: 24 New
      +1
      Here the Tajiks then fired at us in Fayzabad ... there, in Badakhshan, Afghanistan, and up to Kabul, the Tajiks also live ... Charikar, Salang, Pandsher - territories inhabited by Tajiks ...
  8. pinhead
    pinhead 14 October 2015 06: 41 New
    +3
    the picture is impressive. I think that the igilovites do not suffer from constipation.
  9. Ural resident
    Ural resident 14 October 2015 06: 48 New
    11
    Хилари как то заявила, что Россия дорого заплатит за свою позицию по Сирии и вот, во время олимпиады стартовал проект "нацисткая украина". Конечно это была заготовка и выстрелить это должно было чуть позже, но надо было нанести удар перед подписанием договора Евразийского союза, да и выбить наших с Ближнего Востока, а самим "втихую" добиться там своего. американцы отличаются упрямством в достижении своих целей - не впрямую, так вкруговую, но соего будут добиваться, пока по мордасам не схлопочут - понимают только язык силы. Поэтому все наши действия в Сирии абсолютно верны: выпнуть англо-саксов оттуда кирзовым сапогом, да и наши молодые ВКС отработать, тем более, что много еще "тлеющих костров" в округе зреет.
  10. slizhov
    slizhov 14 October 2015 06: 57 New
    +7
    I think US political scientists are no cooler than our experts ...
    Вновь получится так, что народ "взбунтуется" против бандер, а янки вновь, от неожиданности рты раскроют...
  11. Pro100Igor
    Pro100Igor 14 October 2015 07: 11 New
    17
    The answer to Ukraine from the militants!
  12. samarin1969
    samarin1969 14 October 2015 07: 13 New
    +6
    The surrender of LDNR will make senseless success in Syria.
  13. parusnik
    parusnik 14 October 2015 07: 19 New
    +7
    Peaceful life in Ukraine is not beneficial. Absolutely. In a peaceful life, a high degree of Russophobia is difficult to maintain ...
  14. 31rus
    31rus 14 October 2015 07: 41 New
    +4
    Syria and Ukraine, you can’t compare these two different planets, Syria is the victory of the Russian over the western, Ukraine is the defeat quiet and long-term, I won’t describe all the pros and cons, you know them well
    1. Cap.Morgan
      Cap.Morgan 14 October 2015 08: 33 New
      +2
      This is not a defeat, but rather a confrontation. Ahead is winter, how will it pass, that’s the question.
      1. Vadim237
        Vadim237 14 October 2015 09: 49 New
        +2
        I will be hoping for severe and prolonged frosts and snowfalls.
      2. 31rus
        31rus 14 October 2015 10: 09 New
        -5
        Dear, one should call a spade a spade, if the Kremlin weren’t busy with exchange rates, playing with the EU and America, but directly stated or pursued an understandable policy with regard to Ukraine itself, and the EU and America with respect to Ukraine, there wasn’t we have now, we have lost a whole nation, not to mention other aspects, and the further and longer the less profitable Russia is for us, this is a big political and strategic defeat, Russia is an enemy for Ukraine, what else to explain?
        1. Dart2027
          Dart2027 14 October 2015 21: 25 New
          +1
          Quote: 31rus
          Russia is an enemy for Ukraine

          Ukraine itself is a project to split the Russian people. If she is not sick with Russophobia, then nobody will just need it.
  15. dr.star75
    dr.star75 14 October 2015 08: 03 New
    +1
    Well, I don’t understand where the igil came from in Afghanistan? Iran is from the west, and he is fighting us against them. Is Uzbekistan and Tajikistan also against them, China? He himself is sharpening his teeth on Islamists. It turns out Pakistan? He seems to be in the CU and even in the CSTO asks. Where is the water supply from? There is no oil, no transportation, no weapons (yes there was it in bulk, here Najibula held on for 2 years, but still).
    1. fennekRUS
      fennekRUS 14 October 2015 08: 42 New
      +1
      Quote: dr.star75
      Well, I don’t understand where the igil came from in Afghanistan?

      Таки смотрите cui prodest? А технические возможности у данных господ наличиствуют (организовать переброски контрабандой при слабой охране границ, к тому-же проходящих по сложному рельефу не так уж и трудно)Ну и наличие "агентов влияния" помогает в работе "на местах"
  16. Barboskin
    Barboskin 14 October 2015 08: 08 New
    +3
    An interesting article makes you think, thanks to the author. I think our task is to intercept strategic initiative in this confrontation, that is, to act in advance. As long as we succeed, let's see what happens next.
  17. The comment was deleted.
  18. Decathlon
    Decathlon 14 October 2015 08: 19 New
    +1
    "...кое-кому из "партнеров" как нож возле одного места. И "шатать" пространство вокруг нас будут с удвоенным рвением..."
    Если бы я (не приведи,Бог) был "партнёром", однозначно не стал бы шатать пространство! Рука с ножом может дрогнуть и безжизненная писька тихо скатится вниз. belay On the sand dune ...
  19. Was mammoth
    Was mammoth 14 October 2015 08: 59 New
    +3
    Anecdote on the topic of sanctions:
    " Сегодня, 07:25
    Олланд не исключил нового контракта с Россией на продажу кораблей"
    wink
  20. Wolka
    Wolka 14 October 2015 09: 10 New
    +3
    украина банкрот, но России от этого не легче, именно России и придется восстанавливать ее экономику и государственность, запад палец о палец не ударит чтобы как-то помочь свидомой украине, она для него расходный материал, наоборот, запад навяжет восстановление украины именно Россие прикрывшись опять в очередной раз красивой демократической вывеской, и тем самым ослабит экономический потенциал России, и так далее янки и ЕС еще больше навяжут России различных "сосунков" из бывшего СССР, которых естественно экономике России никак не потянуть...
    1. mongolos
      mongolos 14 October 2015 11: 28 New
      0
      о Волька! Лично я придерживаюсь такого же мнения... надеюсь "грабли" наше руководство не допустит ... время покажет
  21. Sedoy_greek
    Sedoy_greek 14 October 2015 09: 38 New
    +7
    I really hope that the Ukrainians will change their minds-and they will restore order in themselves !!!
    1. silver_roman
      silver_roman 15 October 2015 12: 48 New
      0
      this will not be.
      an example just happened before my eyes.
      I work in a law firm in the center of Kiev.

      A private notary sits in our office. he has his own clients, we have our own.
      As usual in the office, there is a guard that keeps anyone out.
      Grandfather 75-80 years old, very flabby and poor looking, went to a notary under the guise of a client.
      apparently he was mistaken for a client and missed.
      так вот: попросил денег, на него сразу все начали давить , мол "покиньте офис и т.п., ща вызовем охрану".
      In general, we came to the conclusion that our people will think over how they can help and get in touch.
      But this is all the background.
      Захожу в кабинет свой, сидит PR-щица. должность крайне "важная" для общества и процветания страны в целом. Получает примерно 20-30 пенсий этого дедули. спрашивает у меня , что случилось.
      я ей объяснил , что мол "дедуля зашел, просил денег, бальной, старенький и т.п. решили скинуться кто чем может, передать ему при встрече завтра". Ответ: возмущение, кто и почему его сюда пропустил. И вообще недоумение как такое возможно.
      я задаю ей вопрос:"ты забыла в какой стране живешь? забыла про урвоень жизни 90% населения Украины? или же ты думаешь, что все получают хотя бы половину как ты?! ответ:кто им мешает зарабатывать".
      This ended the dialogue. While there are such, while THESE are in their heads SUCH! nobody will change anything here. shorter muck alone! live with a veil in the eyes in the form of triple pink glasses. or just chhali on the rest.
  22. mongolos
    mongolos 14 October 2015 11: 20 New
    +1
    Quote: Tartar 174
    Roman Skomorokhov, what did you want to say about in two places, recalling the strangeness in the behavior of the leaders of LDNR that cause surprise?

    Yes. indeed, the text sounded an expression about the strange behavior of the leaders of the eastern republics .... apparently I missed something ...))
  23. Belousov
    Belousov 14 October 2015 11: 34 New
    0
    It is clear that the actions of Russia will not remain unanswered by staff members and their lackeys. Let's hope for the foresight of our authorities. Well, slowly grease Kalash soldier repeat
  24. Tektor
    Tektor 14 October 2015 11: 42 New
    0
    Ukraine did decide to finally clarify the issue of who feeds whom, and severed all economic ties with the Russian Federation ... Well, ... and? The answer is clear.
  25. timyr
    timyr 14 October 2015 11: 52 New
    +2
    Dear Roman, you forgot to mention Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan, their conflict over the Osh Valley. There is also Ferghana in Uzbekistan where it’s already shitty with water. Also, Turkmenistan can be hit by the Taliban.
  26. vladimirvn
    vladimirvn 14 October 2015 13: 39 New
    +1
    "Но не стоит обольщаться. Пройдет некоторое количество времени, и "партнеры" выработают очередной план по "стабилизации России". И начнут действовать. И действия будут направлены именно на то, чтобы отвлечь внимание от Сирии".
    Самые подлые и гнусные шаги штатов и их союзников еще впереди. И на фоне нашей "капиталистическодемократическопереходной" экономики, эти трудности будут вдвойне сложными.
  27. Rostislav
    Rostislav 14 October 2015 13: 43 New
    0
    Ukraine is bankrupt, but Russia does not feel any better, it is Russia that will have to restore its economy and statehood ..., the West will impose the restoration of Ukraine on Russia

    How to impose? Hollande and Merkel will order, and Putin will rush to execute? If there is anything Russia will do in Ukraine, it is only on the basis of its own interests, as their leadership sees.
    It is desirable, of course, that the interests of the leadership as much as possible coincide with the interests of Russia.
  28. Vlad5307
    Vlad5307 14 October 2015 13: 59 New
    +1
    "Так что действительно, Сирия — Сирией, но Украину не стоит сбрасывать со счетов."

    Конечно не следует, но с потерей Крыма, как следующей базой НАТО, НАТОвцы не смирились. НАТО, возглавляемое СГА, для контроля воздушной обстановке над Укропией забрали весь контроль во под себя. Для этого "великие украинцы" безвозмездно(не считая взяток) передали им все свои диспетчерские вышки для модернизации и дальнейшего использования. Теперь американцы уже будут контролировать все воздушное пространство на Укропией. А дальнейшее вползание в НАТО превратит остатки бандеространы в ближние базы НАТО. Так что с потерей Крыма СГА вовсе не прекращают попыток раздуть костер войны против России ,причем руками политических придурков из Европы. Как видим какловские правители просто представляют интересы янки, но не своего народа. soldier
  29. vladimirvn
    vladimirvn 14 October 2015 14: 39 New
    +1
    А вот и ответные ходы саудитов."Во вторник стало известно, что Саудовская Аравия начала борьбу за европейский рынок с российскими поставщиками. Saudi Aramco в сентябре приступила к морским поставкам своей нефти в Польшу, предлагая покупателям более низкие цены, чем поставщики российского сорта Urals."Возвращаясь к конкуренции, хочу сказать, что мы наблюдаем сейчас, что Саудовская Аравия впервые вышла даже на рынок Польши, поставками сырья через Гданьск. Активно демпингует", - заявил во вторник в ходе форума "Россия зовет!" глава "Роснефти" Игорь Сечин."Борьба за рынок является одним из факторов, влияющих на цену на нефть. Это отражается на бюджетных доходах", - сказал президент госкомпании".....http://expert.ru/2015/10/14/v-moskve-otreagirovali/
  30. Black
    Black 14 October 2015 15: 07 New
    +1
    It can catch fire (and the author is right, it will certainly blaze!) Everywhere, and in Ukraine, they will again start to beat around the cities, and in Transnistria, and in Karabakh, they have recently come across quite an art.
    And what about sweating, you have to wait for the attacks, you need to watch out .... In recent years, we (hopefully not special services) have relaxed pretty much, basements and attics are again without locks. So our life ahead is very eventful.
  31. Filxnumx
    Filxnumx 14 October 2015 20: 42 New
    0
    Quote: Bronis
    forgive the moderators .... watch somewhere the latest 1.45.

    Да еще неграмотные, бляха-муха, у них там на телевидении: назвали Сирию "Сырией"! По-украински правильно пишется: СIРIЯ. Хотя какие там на малой родине сейчас правила? Бардак и деградация, больно смотреть...
    And we can hit under the breath. You cannot forget about the fifth column of all kinds of liberalists, weeding and plowing
  32. gammipapa
    gammipapa 14 October 2015 21: 11 New
    0
    If you think about it, the direction of the enemy’s main strike will certainly come from Ukraine.
    1-It’s close, 2- Ukrainians are not Arabs, and if they know how to fight, 3 are near Europe and she, frightened by blackmail by the Americans, will act on the side of Ukraine.
    But not everything is so simple.
    1- Close can play the opposite effect, close inexhaustible rear. 2 - From our side, volunteers will simply dofiga, not counting the regular army. 3- not everyone already in Ukraine wants the Bandera regime, the resistance will be in the rear and not small.

    Remember that our enemy is a chess player and he will download data a hundred times to a super computer. And the computer will issue a verdict - the best direction for the main blow is just Syria.
    1- it is very difficult to replenish the ammunition and the supply of equipment 2 - While the group is small. 3- Almost complete hostile environment. 4- A vital threat to Saudi Arabia and Qatar with almost unlimited monetary resources. 5- China will not interfere in the affairs of Syria.
  33. AKKUL
    AKKUL 14 October 2015 23: 49 New
    0
    "Ну вот не пойму, откуда в Афганистане игил?" .Сначала "талибан" переименовали в "алькаиду" а потом в"игил" -костяк те же самые боевики, c тем же финансированием и прежними кураторами из ЦРУ.
  34. Patriot 771
    Patriot 771 16 October 2015 09: 43 New
    0
    With dill, we still have more than one hundred years to get muddled, or to evict 404 somewhere somewhere ... away. Well, because it’s unrealistic - the aggressor of chess parties will be immeasurable to us. The main thing is not to forget what we are going to and with whom.