Nikolas K. Gvosdev, author and editor "The National Interest", noted in his new article the most interesting fact. It turns out that the opinion of the American establishment about Russia is turning in different directions, as if a weather vane in the wind. Just a couple of months ago, some senior US national security officials argued that Russia was a major threat to Washington’s interests. Today, when oil prices fell, and at the same time the economy of Russia’s ally, China, swayed, officials began talking about the imminent collapse of Russia. They even say that the Putin government is living its last days.
All these views are biased and far from reality.
According to the journalist, the Russian economy really shrinks, industrial production shows signs of decline, the ruble is losing value relative to hard currencies. Western sanctions remain in force. In addition, there has been a "second wave" of falling energy prices, which affects the income of the Kremlin. Putin was hit by the Chinese crisis: over 100 billions of dollars in loans, loans and deals with Beijing were in doubt. Meanwhile, inflationary processes undermine the savings and purchasing power of Russian citizens. Domestic counterparts do not constitute a complete replacement for imports. In principle, no one argues with this, starting with the Kremlin politicians themselves, not to mention Putin’s opponents.
Then begins the field of interpretation.
Some analysts are sure that the recession will lead to the creation of a powerful public opposition to the Putin government: after all, hundreds of thousands of Russians will find themselves below the poverty line. The Russian elite are also unlucky: sanctions will cut the ability of the rich to support access to Western commodity sources and to Western services. The Kremlin will have to reduce the advertised costs of military modernization. In short, everyone will be dissatisfied with Putin: both the elite and ordinary citizens.
And in the West began the euphoria.
They say that the collapsing Russian economy will provoke a reversal of Moscow in Ukraine. The West does not have to do anything; enough to sit in chairs and wait for the collapse of Russia. Russia will fall just as the USSR fell.
The author believes that the belief in such a catastrophe is "quite dangerous" for the West. Even taking into account the decline in all indicators, we must understand: the situation does not resemble the 1990 disaster, when Russia's GDP fell by almost half. There is no "complete collapse". And it is not at all obvious that the troubles of the Russians will result in massive anti-government protests.
In addition, the crisis gives Putin a chance to fix something in his country.
Nikolas K. Gvosdev recalls the “dismissal” from the post in the Russian Railways of the person “close to Putin” - Vladimir Yakunin. According to the publicist, unfavorable economic indicators may give Putin a chance to start implementing a plan for the replacement of personnel. Perhaps Putin will bring to work "younger talents." Although, on the other hand, the expected appointment of Yakunin to the Federation Council speaks of "golden parachutes." But it is possible that only those who are “willing to cooperate” —that is, who are able to accept the loss of a high post — will receive “parachutes”. Thus, the Kremlin insures against the emergence of a new opposition.
The author urges to refrain from speculations about the collapse of Russia.
Larisa Brown, correspondent covering defense topics in "The Daily Mail", spoke about the new report of the research center Henry Jackson Society. The leitmotif of the document - the UK should send troops to Eastern Europe. The task of the military will be a reflection of the onslaught of Putin's Russia.
Experts from the Henry Jackson Society are confident that London should deploy a contingent of ground forces on a permanent basis in Eastern Europe. British soldiers are obliged to protect the Baltic republics and Romania from Russian “provocations”, as well as “aggression”. The deployment of the contingent is supposed to be carried out in the framework of the new geostrategic policy, which the scientists report is dedicated to. The document is called “After Crimea: Towards a new British Geostrategy for Eastern Europe” (“After the Crimea: Towards a New British Geostrategy for Eastern Europe”).
Researchers believe that the Russians want to make “controlled chaos” (originally “manageable chaos”) on NATO’s eastern flank. London must confront it. The British should block the possibility of spreading chaos from Ukraine to other states.
Britain’s military presence in Eastern Europe will provide security for the main part of the European continent, which is a central component of the UK’s “geostrategic defense system,” the report says. The United Kingdom must reaffirm the “European side of its global policy”.
While some Western authors talk about military opposition to the plans of the Kremlin, while others urge Washington to refrain from rash statements about the near collapse of Russia, the Russian authors accuse of appropriating the salutary national ideas ... Putin.
Lemons. Collage: Anne-Gaëlle Amiot
In a french magazine "Le Nouvel Observateur" An interview with Eduard Limonov appeared. DAC).
Here are some of the theses of Comrade Limonov.
The writer believes that in the West they exaggerate the significance of Putin. “I have been formulating the ideology of our national state for more than 25 for years,” Limonov said. - I don’t support Putin at all, to say this would be absurdly stupid, but he partially took advantage of my ideas. It is not I who support Putin, but he supports my ideas. He was forced to put into practice some of them, for example, the return of the Crimea to Russia. ”
Then the conversation turned on Surkov. “... Vladislav Surkov, who is considered the ideologist of the Putin regime, drew inspiration from you?” Asked the correspondent. And he received the answer: “I did not say that. This is common knowledge. Surkov has no ideas of his own. He takes them from the right and left, and then connects them together. In contrast, I have my own ideas ... "
However, realizing the idea of the Crimea, Putin got a serious problem: “Putin has a serious problem. He knew that the people would not forgive him if he ignored the desire of the Crimea to reunite with Russia. He understood the danger, he realized that the West would be against it. But he had no choice. Russia has long developed a plan for the Crimea, the military is always planning everything. In the end, Putin found the courage to challenge the West. He returned the Crimea. And it took him to the top, ratings jumped to 90%. ” And here is the problem: “But here the uprising began in the Donbas. Putin did not need it. He was afraid of breaking relations with everyone because of the territory of no interest. Therefore, he has been trying to get rid of this problem for a year and a half. This rebellion was not started by him. And not the Russian army, as in the Crimea. And the people. Putin wants to stop the war. He defiles the Donbass. He is the enemy of Donbass. ”
To solve the problem, Limonov offers ideas that the “enemy of Donbass” has not yet copied.
The first idea: “Our party has groups that fight in the Donbas. There are dead and wounded in their ranks. We are organizing volunteers. ” The second idea: “I talked about this back in the 1992 year: we left 27 millions of Russians outside of Russia, and one day we will have to return them by force weapons. Therefore, we need to occupy northern Kazakhstan, where Russian cities are located. ” The journalist said: “Is the solution to the problem a war?” And he receives the answer: “Yes, war”.
By the way, Limonov looks to the Russian future with optimism. The future is bright precisely because now Russians are living with an idea. And that is exactly what will help Putin to retain power: “The power can remain popular despite the economic crisis and the sanctions caused by the war. Russians can endure the crisis. They are willing to sacrifice the standard of living for ideas. 23, after the collapse of the USSR, the nation was experiencing depression. We were, more precisely, became, meaningless people. After the return of the Crimea, we got rid of this depression. This is evident in the faces of people. ”
So, let us add, from the West, which is engaged in geostrategic planning, something should be known about Russia.
First, American and European experts should carefully study the speeches and books of Comrade Limonov. From the texts it will become clear exactly what ideas Putin can borrow from the writer through the mediation of Surkov.
Secondly, no collapse of Russia is expected in the near future. However, the position of “expectations”, as we believe, is very convenient for the government of B.H. Obama: the “lame duck” is left to sit on the throne for a little over a year, and he does not need a military conflict with Russia on Ukrainian territory.
Thirdly, it is clear from this that the problem of “aggression” of Russia is moving into a purely European plane. Not without reason, scientists strategists from the Henry Jackson Society offer the valiant British to defend the Romanians and the Baltic. No one is counting on Americans.