Elections on bayonets. Can the army affect the outcome of the vote?
The mandate of the Federation Council and the fantastic 95,6% result in the municipal elections at the end of the summer, the former governor of St. Petersburg, Valentina Matvienko, is largely due to the military. More specifically, the cadets of the Military Space Academy. A.F. Mozhaisky, who voted at the site number XXUMX of the Petrogradsky district of the Northern capital. Can the “election on bayonets” scenario repeat throughout the country in December 1348 and March 2011? Experts state the obvious: in their preferences, the army is similar to all Russian society. And just like most of our fellow citizens, the military has no party defending their interests. The ability to express protest moods (and those in the military, as they say, in abundance) in voting is also limited. At the same time, in many regions the army can become an important resource for ensuring high ratings of the ruling party ...
Pissed off with reform
To understand the mood in the military environment, you need to keep in mind the changes that have already occurred and still occur in the armed forces. After all, the last three years in the Russian army is a reform, called the "transition to a new look." “The main thing in it is what they don’t say out loud about - the rejection of the concept of a mass mobilization army. From Soviet times to 2008, it was assumed that the country's defense would be carried out through mass mobilization from 1,5 to 4 million reservists, - says Alexander Golts, a military expert and a member of the editorial board of the Daily Journal. - According to current calculations, in case of war, a reserve is needed only in 700 thousand people. This explains the excessive number of officers: before the start of the reform there were 356 thousand - one officer for two soldiers. 80% of the Russian army units were reduced. "
In addition to the reform ideology - an unusual military man brought up by the "old school" - causes a heated debate and its social side. “A military retiree receives less times in 3 than an FSB officer, and in 1,5 times less than a policeman. The military camps are now being transferred to the jurisdiction of the governors, which means that officers will be given apartments in them "by force". For example, he served as an officer in Transbaikalia — he will have to continue living there, says Anatoly Tsyganok, head of the Center for Military Forecasting at the Institute for Political and Military Analysis. - When ordering military equipment, the generals are only interested in reducing costs, and not in its quality. The army has practically lost its medicine. ”
The overwhelming majority of officers hate the ongoing reforms, states Alexander Golts. “Including because these essentially liberal reforms are carried out by completely Soviet methods,” he continues. “People are being fired from the armed forces using dirty methods in order not to give them the promised social package.” By law, a person who has served 10 years in an army and is dismissed through no fault of his own should get an apartment. But the state is not in a hurry to fulfill this obligation: according to various estimates, the “dirty” reductions ranged from 40 to 70 thousand officers. As a result, most of the Internet resources related to the army are full of criticism of Defense Minister Anatoly Serdyukov. There is even a Mutual Legal Assistance Forum for servicemen (http://www.voensud.ru/) - they share their experience on how to properly defend their interests in court when it comes to dismissals and due benefits.
Epaulets outside politics
The question of who is ready to defend our interests in parliament has long been rhetorical. There is no answer for representatives of many professions and social strata, and the military is no exception. Despite the fact that quite a few retirees are sitting in the Federation Council and the State Duma, there is no full-fledged military lobby in the Russian parliament. “Almost the entire Committee on the Defense of the State Duma is a former military. But the armed forces are just as atomized as the whole Russian society, - notes Alexander Golts. - The most numerous meetings of the military gather 1,5 thousand people. The Defense Committee is constantly trying to do something, but all its members are extremely loyal people. Everything is limited to private things like a bit of big payments to military retirees. ”
It is believed that the military are exceptionally organized. As a result, there are quite a few unions called upon to defend their interests, even if outside the parliament. However, it turns out that the positions of some such organizations are hopelessly undermined, while others are cooperating with the authorities with might and main. In any case, the field of activity of those and others is limited only by practical assistance to current and former members of the “military corporation”, but not to unite them into a single political movement.
For example, there is a powerful organization of veterans "Combat Brotherhood", which includes the governor of the Moscow region Boris Gromov, the former plenipotentiary of the president in the Far Eastern Federal District Konstantin Pulikovsky and a number of other officials and politicians. Members of the “Combat Brotherhood” can be met at national-patriotic events, but the goal of the organization is, first of all, mutual support of veterans, and not participation in the political life of the country. The latter is also difficult due to corruption scandals in the Moscow region and Gromov’s precarious position. Vladimir Strelchenko, a veteran of Afghanistan, Khimki’s mayor and long-time comrade of Boris Gromov, is under criticism of almost the entire Russian opposition. Another Moscow region's “Afghan” mayor, Yuri Sleptsov, who headed Voskresensk, is under investigation for accepting a bribe.
The last bright public action by the military is a protest from the Union of Russian Paratroopers, who was offended by disrespectful remarks by Defense Minister Anatoly Serdyukov. The paratroopers demanded his resignation and adjustment of military policy. But the protests faded away with the death of General Vladislav Achalov, the head of the union. And now the paratroopers cooperate with the All-Russian Popular Front. “There are active veteran organizations, but there is no political force representing the military. There are no full-fledged opportunities for lobbying in the parliament, ”summarizes Anatoly Tsyganok.
Fight for fighters
It turns out that the military, like the rest of the Russians, will have to choose from that meager menu, which will consist of ballots in December. So, what do people in party uniform who are allowed to do before the current parliamentary elections are offered? The emphasis on national security issues has traditionally been made by the LDPR. To protect against possible military conflicts on the southern border, Zhirinovsky proposes to increase spending on anti-missile and air defense, to designate the “right of preventive nuclear attack” on those who threaten our country. Interestingly, the Liberal Democratic Party is going to lobby for the merger of the FSB and the Foreign Intelligence Service. To some extent, the inclusion of the Liberal Democrats in the electoral lists of the son of the ex-Colonel Yuri Budanov’s murdered Valery into the electoral lists as a curtsey towards the military. “Fair Russia” doesn’t talk about the army very much and mainly in a social way: it promises to bring the pension to 70% of the monthly maintenance of a soldier, when calculating the work experience in the army, take into account the “year for two” scheme (for combatants "Year for three"). The party also intends to fight to ensure that the army was banned from serving people convicted of bribery.
"Just Cause" advocated the development of civil-military dual-use concerns. Supporters of Mikhail Prokhorov wanted to significantly increase the benefits of the military and make military service voluntary. However, in September, the leadership of the right with the scandal changed. It is not yet clear what measures will be taken regarding the army by the new party leaders. The Communist Party of the Russian Federation is a tough opponent of army reforms. By the elections, the Army Support Movement (DPA), which now stands under the same banner with the Communist Party, was activated. The Communist Party of the Russian Federation advocates the revival of the Soviet army principles and ideals, the preservation of universal conscription and the increase of social guarantees for professional military. In 2010, the national patriots attempted to create the Motherland: Common Sense Party, which was supposed to unite the remnants of the once popular Motherland. Protecting the social rights of the military and fighting the reduction of the army was one of the priority tasks of the new party. True, the project was hacked to the ground: the Ministry of Justice refused to register it.
As for the ruling party, the main trump card here is not the United Russia program, but the specific actions of the government. The most important of them is the promise of a sharp increase in salaries for army officers. From January 2012, the lieutenant will have to receive 50 thousand rubles, the colonel - 90 thousand. However, these figures will be achieved by discharging several hundred thousand soldiers to the reserve. At the same time, in 2011, the rate of reduction of the officer corps slowed down. This, as well as the ambitious program of procurement of new weapons, experts regard as the pre-election steps of the tandem, designed for the military electorate.
They are few, but they are in vests
How do the military themselves evaluate the efforts of politicians? In winter, the Military Pensioner.RF portal conducted a survey among its visitors about which of the parties to the State Duma could better protect the interests of military retirees. The Communist Party won - 39,7%, in the second place “no party” - 36,9%, “Fair Russia” gained 8,9%, LDPR - 6,4%, “Yabloko” - 4,3%. Other data leads Levada Center. The August poll revealed that 31% of servicemen would vote for United Russia, 16% for the Communist Party of the Russian Federation, 15% for the Liberal Democratic Party and 4% for the fair Russians. These two surveys have only one thing in common - the number of undecided. The share of those who do not know for whom to vote, will not go to the polls or is not yet sure whether to take part in the voting, in the results of the Levada Center is 34%. True, the researchers themselves call for caution in assessing the accuracy of these data: the share of the military in the total sample of the 1,6 survey of thousands was only 1,5%. In addition, this extremely small group included representatives of various law enforcement agencies, and not just the army.
“In 90, the military voted for the Communist Party of the Russian Federation and the Liberal Democratic Party, at the beginning of the 2000s, many supported United Russia. Now, disappointment reigns mainly in official politics, ”states political consultant Stanislav Belkovsky. However, the director of the autonomous non-profit organization Center for Socio-Political Studies, reserve lieutenant colonel Vladimir Yevseyev recalls the heterogeneity of the army. The officers, contract soldiers and conscripts-conscripts differ not only in electoral preferences, but also in the way they actually vote. “It is more difficult to directly influence officers, and they have certain priorities,” the expert notes. - They are dissatisfied with what is happening in the Ministry of Defense, dissatisfied with the ruling party. They are closer to voting for the protest party - another thing is whether it will be so. ” As a result, according to Vladimir Yevseyev, the turnout among officers (their number was estimated at about 200 thousand people, not counting family members) will be low, and their voices will be spread over the whole spectrum of parties.
Another thing - contract. “They are more or less manageable, besides they have families,” notes Mr. Yevseyev. - Therefore, they may support the "United Russia". This category of military can give about 100 thousand votes, not counting the votes of their family members. But it is easiest to control conscript soldiers, the expert is sure: they are more dependent on the authorities than others, and their own views are often not yet formed. It is this 400-thousandth cohort of conscripts who can give the main turnout and the main support of “United Russia” in the military, Vladimir Evseev believes. Liliya Shibanova, executive director of the Golos association, notes that the turnout among the military is significantly higher than average — obviously not largely voluntary. It is not much easier to falsify the voting results of the military than the rest: there are no polling stations in military units - they are taken to civilian sites for voting. It is also difficult to find out for whom the military is actually voting: the main monitoring method is polling when leaving polling stations. And there not every military man will agree to answer honestly - there may be someone from the authorities next to him.
However, the practice is stronger than the theory: a precedent with a stunning result of Valentina Matvienko gives a clear idea of how the military resource can be used in elections. But what impact can it have on a nationwide scale with its 142-million population? At first glance, small. “In densely populated regions, the role of the army will be minimal,” believes Vladimir Yevseyev. But do not forget that in Russia there are regions where the civilian population is small, and the proportion of the military is traditionally high. In such regions, especially given the low voter turnout, the military can play a key role. According to Mr. Yevseyev, this will be the case, in particular, in the Pskov and part of the Tula regions, in the Far East (especially in Kamchatka), in the northern regions of the country (for example, in the Arkhangelsk region).
New Decembrists
When it comes to both the army and politics at the same time, especially when discontent becomes widespread, the word “insurgency” spins in the language. Should I mention it today? In theory, yes. “There are massive layoffs in the army. If people had the idea, united, to defend their interests, we would have the situation in the Weimar Republic on the eve of Hitler's rise to power. The Reichswehr was one of the most powerful foundations of the Nazi movement, ”says Alexander Golts. As for practice, everything is not so clear. In recent years, the military has been involved in high-profile criminal proceedings related to extremism. At first glance, there were many such cases. In reality, it is usually only the individual military, who joined quite civilian radical groups, but not the underground organizations of dissatisfied soldiers and officers.
Thus, in the summer, the trial over the North group of the now banned National Socialist society ended. Persons involved in the case have been convicted of 27 murders and other serious crimes. The NSO-North was dealt with by the Moscow District Military Court, although there was only one convict among the 13 military men, Sergey Yurov. Another process that ended the summer over the Nazis was the St. Petersburg case of the Combat Terrorist Organization Borovikov-Vojvodina (BTO). Also a series of murders, robberies, trafficking weapons. 14 accused one military - Andrei Malyugin, before coming to the Nazis, who fought in the special forces in Chechnya. In the case of BTO, the jury Malyugin was acquitted, but already in late August he was again detained - on suspicion of two murders and an attempt to manufacture explosives. explosions and murder. After the “partisan” scandal to the academy, one of the teachers of which is suspected of organizing the murder, they appointed a new leader, and they will reorganize it themselves — they will also be connected to the FSO research center located in Orel. And in the case of the “Primorsky Partisans” group under investigation, one of the defendants is a deserter.
Thus, now there is no question about the organized military underground. However, recently there were several radical groups in Russia consisting of military personnel. For example, the Army Support Movement (ADP), General Lev Rokhlin, a participant in the Afghan and Chechen wars. The movement was active in 1997 and 1998, but soon Rokhlin was killed under rather vague circumstances. In a number of publications in the media and in the memoirs of 90’s politicians, the murder of Lev Rokhlin is associated with the plans of a military coup: allegedly he was supposed to lead the insurgency, but the special services thwarted the plans of the army generals. Rokhlin’s successor as head of the DPA, Communist deputy Viktor Ilyukhin, in February of this year, conducted the outrageous “military tribunal of the All-Russian officer meeting to review the destructive activities of Putin V.V.” A month later, on March 19, Ilyukhin died of a heart attack. Representatives of the Communist Party said they would conduct an independent investigation into his death.
And at the end of December 2010, FSB officers detained Vladimir Kvachkov, a retired colonel and head of the People’s Militia. Minin and Pozharsky. This happened on the very day when the court decided that his guilt in the attempt on Anatoly Chubais was not proved. “Kvachkov is a native of special forces, and Serdyukov’s reforms hit such units as well. It’s about reducing several brigades, and for officers this is an inexplicable thing, because special forces brigades are the most prepared part of our army, ”says Andrei Soldatov, editor-in-chief of the Agentura.Ru portal. “Their views of Kvachkov find some understanding.” According to Oksana Mikhalkina, a lawyer of Vladimir Kvachkov, since the beginning of 2010, the FSB has been introducing agents to his movement, collecting information on Kvachkov and his inner circle. According to the Chekists, Kvachkov’s supporters intended to agitate the military from several parts. Tanks to the Kremlin. " The criminal case was classified, and the FSB did not present any convincing evidence in its favor.
“For 20 years, excluding the operetta Union of officers Stanislav Terekhov, there was no organization of officers in the Russian army,” says Andrei Soldatov. “Kvachkov’s attempt to create one, coupled with some of his popularity, could have been frightened by the FSB.” Whether such organizations will appear depends largely on the authorities themselves. According to Alexander Golts, mass protests in the army can begin if the state is unable to fulfill its obligations to increase the military salaries scheduled for January 3 by 2012. The officers have been waiting for this for many years, they did not specifically abandon the army. If they are deceived again, the armed forces expect either a mass exodus of the most sensible military, or their transition into open opposition to the authorities. In a word, experts point to the wait-and-see attitude of the majority of the military: they are not an independent political force, there are no new Decembrists on the horizon, but there is no need to rely on the authorities for their special support. “If serious ferments of the Arab type begin in Russia, many military will support them. I am sure that the army against the protesters will not be used. Some riot police, yes, internal troops are no longer a fact. Because Serdyukov does not add to the authority of authority, ”said Alexei Kondaurov, former State Duma deputy from the Communist Party of the Russian Federation and the KGB major general in retirement. “But the military itself is not capable of anything now.”
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