Military Review

Plan "C". Unintended consequences

"Unforeseen" consequences "President Obama called the development of events in Iraq after the withdrawal of US troops, which led to the emergence of terrorist LIH on a large part of its territory. The situation in Ukraine for the United States almost immediately began to develop with unintended consequences, or according to plan "C".

Plan "C". Unintended consequences

Washington’s initial “A” plan in Ukraine proceeded from Moscow’s painful reaction to the Bandera coup in Kiev, with repressions against the Russian-speaking part of the population, and provoking on this basis a Russian-Ukrainian war, in which the West would help the Bandera regime in the second echelon, isolating Russia in the world as an aggressor. Until now, it is being promoted by Zbigniew Brzezinski and George Soros, not abandoning the dream of making a “Ukrainian Afghanistan” for Russia in Europe, and demanding to supply Bandera with modern American weapon.

In response to the February 22 coup in Kiev, Moscow announced the possibility of bringing troops into Ukraine to protect the civilian population, and this was in line with the plan of Washington. Therefore, he did not respond to the statement of Moscow in a symmetrical way, and Kiev did not seek military assistance from Washington. Due to this, and the loudly pronounced statement of Moscow “on the introduction of troops,” the “Russian Spring” began in the south-eastern pro-Russian regions of Ukraine. She crowned with a referendum in the Crimea on reunification with Russia, and referendums in the Donbass on the creation of "people's republics".

However, after the return of the Crimea to Russia, Russia's initial strategy was curtailed. Despite the Odessa Khatyn, the pogroms and excesses of Bandera throughout the East of Ukraine, there was no follow-up of troops entering the Donbass battling with the Nazi battalions. President Putin made a statement that he would not let him crush the Donbass, but by helping him. The decree on the possibility of bringing troops into Ukraine was canceled, Russian troops from the border set aside. So began for Washington in Ukraine "unintended consequences."

The entry of Russian troops into the Donbass immediately led to the Brzezinski scenario, perhaps this was what caused, after the "Crimea", the abolition of the original strategy by Moscow. It has become news for Washington (Plan "A" was thwarted), and, probably, confused him for some time. Western analysts vied with each other to say that Moscow started a “new type” war, which was later called a “hybrid war”. Although some political scientists (Germans) noted that Moscow only turned to the Western strategy of the “invisible war” that the West used in many of its conflicts, including in Yugoslavia and Syria, relying on local anti-government forces.

Indeed, to protect the Donbass, Moscow took advantage of Western experience. In any case, it reacted to accusations of interfering in Ukraine’s affairs in the same way as the United States responded to accusations of interfering in the affairs of Yugoslavia and Syria. Such indirect support of Donbass is still successful: it allows you to help the Donbass, and to keep the propaganda and sanctions economic blow of the West.

Washington’s strategy today comes from the original Plan A: push Russia to the maximum, where it is possible, even with economic damage for Europe, raising the degree of tension in Ukraine and other Russian borders (anti-Russian hysteria in Poland and the Baltics, spy underwater passions in Sweden). Although it is easily calculated and allows Moscow to conduct asymmetric counterattacks (contacts with Turkey, Egypt, Argentina, Iran), relying on strategic cooperation with the BRICS and SCO countries.

Russia's strategy has undergone a series of twists and turns, which posed unforeseen problems for Washington each time. The first turn of Russia was the rejection of the "entry of troops", which led after the August defeat of the Bandera troops in the boilers near Donetsk and Lugansk to the Minsk-1. The first "Minsk" was the initiative of President Putin, Berlin and Paris responded to it, and then Kiev agreed. “Minsk” did not enter Washington’s plans, but the Kiev junta needed a respite after the defeat in the Donbass, and Obama was forced to welcome the Minsk process on behalf of his European allies.

Since Minsk-1 was initiated by Moscow, it was also a political concession to Moscow, and perhaps a calculated “deliberate sacrifice,” as in chess. He relied on Poroshenko’s “peace plan”, and his text contained dire provisions for the Novorossiysk republics (for example, about the Ukrainian border control), as pointed out by political scientist Sergey Markov. However, Kiev did not seek to fulfill the agreements of the Minsk-1: after finishing the regrouping of the troops, on the officially given order of Poroshenko, the Bandera troops launched an offensive on the Donbass in 2015 year. Washington, apparently, pushed through its main Plan "A": either crush the Donbass, or achieve the entry of Russian troops into the Donbass.

With the start of 2015, Russia made the following move in its “Ukrainian party”: it again turned to firm politics, ending the period after the Crimean strategic retreat. It can be assumed that in 2014, some weaknesses in the economy, the military-industrial complex, the general defense of the country were “closed”, the sharpness of the sanctions strike of the West was removed, and it became possible for Russia to more resolutely resist the West.

The demonstrative refusal of Putin and Medvedev from the invitation to visit the Davos forum, where they were persistently invited to negotiate with Poroshenko and Europe, and then from the invitation to attend the Munich security conference (went, by post, Lavrov) was a visible manifestation of Moscow’s hardcore course. Moscow is contemptuously silent on all proposals from the West after the collapse of Washington and Kiev "Minsk-1". Putin makes an important statement about the "NATO contingent" in Ukraine ...

Against such a political background, the Bandera offensive in the Donbass ends for Kiev with a simple catastrophe: the shock attacking Debaltsev group falls into the “cauldron”. Despite all the efforts of the West to save the old front line, Debaltsev's defeat of Bandera was completed, Moscow did not give up the liberated bridgehead, and in Minsk-2 Merkel and Hollande had to recognize the new status quo in the Donbass. Debaltseve is not only a condition of viability, "connectedness" of the economy of Donbass, but also the first powerful counter-attack of the BCH and Moscow, the first "red line" for Kiev and the West was carried out.

Debaltsev's defeat of Bandera, and not Putin’s presence in Munich, caused panic in Europe. Chancellor Merkel and President Hollande, ignoring the Atlantic discipline, make their famous urgent trip to Moscow to negotiate with President Putin to prevent the "war in Europe", then let out the message Hollander. The outcome of the urgent Moscow talks was Minsk-2, already at the initiative of Europe, but containing political points clearly dictated by Moscow, the fulfillment of which leads de facto to the realization of the Russian policy of confederalization of Ukraine, which Moscow sought from the very beginning.

Conducting “Minsk-2” by Berlin, Paris and Moscow, contrary to Washington’s opinion, formed the first crack in the Atlantic unity of the West, no matter what they say about it. After such a "trick" of the "old Europe", Washington will still suspect that it has started some kind of its game with Moscow: it has put "before the fact" Washington once and will put another.

Indeed, the “old Europe” wants to “freeze” the Ukrainian conflict in order to preserve energy supplies from Russia: this is critical for it (1 / 3 of the energy balance of Europe), and in fact pushes the reserve Plan B to conserve the conflict.
And Washington wants to continue Plan "A", continues to broadcast about the Russian troops in the Donbass, although it looks like an empty wolfish howl: Berlin and Paris are already publicly saying that US intelligence deliberately misleads everyone, no facts about the upcoming "invasion of Russia" not.

All the delayed deliveries by President Obama of weapons to the Bandera regime, Poroshenko’s last statement that Kiev will be able to supply itself with weapons, they say that Obama has made concessions to his European allies, at least formally. That is, Plan “A” of the “Ukrainian Afghanistan” is practically broken, and now Europe is trying to implement a spare Plan “B” of “freezing” the Bandera regime.

The danger of this plan is seen in the fact that, according to the American scenarios, all the “frozen” Plans “B” always slide back to Plans “C”, unintended consequences. In Iraq, such consequences, after the destabilization of the regime left by the Americans in Baghdad, became ISIS. Destabilization of the “frozen” Bandera junta (as a result of the Third Maidan or a new revolution of justice) can lead to similar consequences, that is, the emergence of a frank terrorist “Bandera state” sending curses to both the West and Washington for betraying their hopes for “European life”. After all, the socio-economic crisis in the Bandera Krajina is getting worse.

... In view of the above, after Russia celebrates the 9 in May of the 70 anniversary of the Victory over Nazi fascism, we can expect a new, third in its turn in its policy in Ukraine. Moscow, of course, is doing everything possible to ensure that it is worthy — and peacefully! - celebrate your Great Victory, pay tribute to the feat of the fathers, but then your hands will be untied ...

A turn can be made not only in relation to Bandera’s Ukraine, but also in general to the West, as created “Euro-associated” Bandera fascism, or parts of it. A new Rubicon will be passed: perhaps, Moscow will decisively demand respect for human rights in the south-eastern regions of Ukraine, since Kiev does not want to establish a dialogue with them in accordance with the Minsk agreements.

The political part of the "Minsk-2" Kiev clearly breaks, this "Kiev itself cuts off the Donbass", as Putin said on the last "straight line". Moscow may take important steps to recognize the Novorossiysk republics. It's time…

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  1. rotmistr60
    rotmistr60 April 27 2015 06: 11
    Perhaps Moscow will take important steps to recognize the New Russian Republics. It's time…

    Everything is moving towards the fact that this can happen. But then Moscow will have to provide direct military assistance to the recognized republics, and this will play into the hands of the Americans. So that double-edged sword. Time will tell what strategic plans have been developed with us.
    1. Volgarr
      Volgarr April 27 2015 09: 00
      And still it's time for us to show the fangs to the west! Make it clear that we will defend our interests no matter what! And sanctions are really for a long time, more precisely, until the United States falls apart. Learning to live in a new world where there is sanction and a sense of independence from these freaks!
    2. The comment was deleted.
    3. Victor Kamenev
      April 27 2015 09: 37
      The recognition may be different, I guess. But ... if Kiev cuts off the Donbass, Russia on the same basis can increasingly recognize it. The economy of Donbass does not raise otherwise. A supply of weapons-it is a military issue, if they are required, you still have to deliver.
    4. beefrost
      beefrost April 27 2015 12: 17
      Why do you have to provide military assistance? They can act just like now - humanitarian aid, well, unless they provide non-lethal weapons .... But in fact, it is officially possible to provide nothing, all the same, ours quickly enter there, give heat and leave.
      1. creak
        creak April 27 2015 15: 57
        Quote: beeFrost
        all the same, ours quickly come in there, give heat and leave.

        Quickly, only rabbits fuck together .. And a professional, before entering, should think how to get out. Especially if you are responsible for subordinates.
        You would have been at least once at the presentation of the funeral to your mothers, they would have set their brains out.

        And so, if he has not been at war, the Homeland is waiting for you at the recruiting station.
        I’m saying this for a reason, I didn’t see the war in the cinema, how did you screw up the computer regiment commanders ..
        Sorry, but it’s just boiling up, at least one of these stratetegs should be muzzled into the trench, where an 82 mm mine was blown up - what a spectacle it’s not faint ..
    5. user
      user April 27 2015 13: 23
      But then Moscow will have to provide direct military assistance to the recognized republics, and this will play into the hands of the Americans.

      But this can be done through Abkhazia and North Ossetia, i.e. without direct involvement.
  2. NEXUS
    NEXUS April 27 2015 06: 18
    one thing can already be said with complete certainty, the United States failed to drag Russia into this conflict and impose its own rules of the game. Just as the sanctions did not bring the desired effect. The White House is losing the game to the Kremlin in the clean, more and more bogged down by the consequences of its mistakes and far-fetched illusions about its exclusivity.
  3. Kazakh
    Kazakh April 27 2015 06: 19
    Washington’s initial Plan A in Ukraine proceeded from Moscow’s painful reaction to the Bandera coup in Kiev, with repressions against the Russian-speaking part of the population, and on this basis provoking a Russian-Ukrainian war in which the West would help the Bandera regime in the second echelon, isolating Russia in world as an aggressor.
    And now that there is no isolation?
  4. samarin1969
    samarin1969 April 27 2015 06: 56
    "A turn can be made not only in relation to Bandera's Ukraine, but also to the West in general ..." - I would like to, but hardly will: ... the business rules in Moscow.
  5. Same lech
    Same lech April 27 2015 06: 58
    "Unforeseen" consequences, "President Obama called the development of events in Iraq after the withdrawal of US troops, which led to the emergence of a terrorist state ISIS on a large part of its territory.

    smile As they say, everything is in the hands of GOD.

    It’s one thing when it is planned to democratize the whole planet with bunker bombs .... it’s quite another thing when after their application democratization is replaced by hehe Islamization with the help of a dagger and Kalash.
    1. cergey51046
      cergey51046 April 27 2015 07: 04
      There are cumulative shells on the dagger and Kalash; their Mujahideen are still afraid.
    2. cergey51046
      cergey51046 April 27 2015 07: 04
      There are cumulative shells on the dagger and Kalash; their Mujahideen are still afraid.
  6. cergey51046
    cergey51046 April 27 2015 07: 00
    When they reach the plan "I" - wake up. The United States is stoned and passes off its hallucinations as reality, and their plans are delusional.
  7. alicante11
    alicante11 April 27 2015 07: 07
    I can not agree with the author about the initiative of the winter offensive.
    In general, the winter aggravation of "ATO" very strongly resembles not the dill initiative, but quite our own, domestic one. I followed the events closely enough and did not see any successes of dill from the very beginning of the battles. In the DAP, the "cyborgs" were simply a failure. The second active front in the initial phase of hostilities was Bakhmutka. Well, there, too, dill did not achieve anything. Although, if it were a prepared strike, then, even in a tight and stubborn defense, they should have gnawed at least some distance. But - no, on the contrary, the progress was noted by the VSN. Moreover, everything was very similar to the development of operations around the "numbered base" on Bakhmutka, which were carried out even before the activation of the base.
    So, most likely, this was our attack, in response to the shelling of Donetsk and Gorlovka? Yes, but the BCH clearly had the initiative. But the offensive was with limited goals. Because BCH has not yet managed to co-ordinate new compounds. As a result, both losses and throwing from Bakhmutka to Popasnaya - Debaltsev, and a stalled attack on Pesky Avdeevka. However, what caused this unprepared attack with limited goals? Most likely, Debaltsevsky bridgehead was a very tasty morsel. After all, there stood the most combat-ready troops of dill. Well equipped with appliances. An analogue of those BTGs that tore the defense of the militias in August last year. And it was necessary to preempt them in shock. It’s good that this was possible, now the junta near Shirokino and Donetsk is trying again to pull the BCH into an unprepared attack. Apparently, the Armed Forces of Ukraine can no longer advance and are very afraid of the moment when the Armed Forces are fully ready.
    1. EGOrkka
      EGOrkka April 27 2015 07: 21
      The strategy is just Ukropskaya. About Debaltseve has been said since last summer, so what? The main component of Kiev's policy is war. And the main skills of Kiev are intrigue! Hence all the shifts and freaks. "Lowering" of the economy to a stable bottom is an illusion of PSSH, because the Ruins has no bottom ...
      1. alicante11
        alicante11 April 27 2015 09: 11
        Excuse me, but WHY then did the "offensive" of the dill unfold not from the Debaltsev salient, where there were the most combat-ready units in terms of information and logic, but in the DAP and on Bakhmutka? And the Debaltsevo group remained in the cauldron until it slammed shut. The only time they rock the boat, and even then not to the south, but to the east - to Alchevsk, when it became very hot on Bakhmutka.
    2. Victor Kamenev
      April 27 2015 09: 45
      Actually, there was an official order from Poroshenko. As for art. provocations about the answers to them, it would be strange if there were no counter-attacks. Stand under the execution?

      Artillery shelling usually precedes an offensive, that is, they can already be considered the beginning of an offensive. Thus, the initiative of the winter offensive belongs to Banderovites. But the BCH did not allow the development of the offensive, and itself went over to the counter-attack.
      1. alicante11
        alicante11 April 27 2015 14: 16
        As for art. provocations about the answers to them, it would be strange if there were no counter-attacks. Stand under execution?

        Well, now in fact they are.
  8. Fantazer911
    Fantazer911 April 27 2015 07: 19
    Why part of the dombass. if it’s better to completely get rid of pro-American satelliteism and completely free Ukraine from the conquering regime of America and their pawns, drive them to the neck and away not only from our historical lands but as far as possible, let Europe itself contain its satellites and then find out with them relations.
  9. kursk87
    kursk87 April 27 2015 08: 02
    The Americans will not abandon attempts to drag Russia and Europe into armed confrontation. The US goal is to weaken both sides. Only the US economy will benefit from this confrontation. The goal of the USA was and remains to impose on the whole world its development concept, led by Washington, thereby making the whole world work for the states
    CONTROL April 27 2015 08: 44
    weak article ...
    The interests of business, both Russian and Ukrainian, have not been taken into account at all, which, in fact, rules there! Kolomoisky puffed up, created a personal "army" ... and sho? Benya, are you making money? Soon his personal battalions will die from lack of funding and split up into small gangs that only the lazy will not crush! And it will look - and be presented in propaganda (on both sides - VSN and AFU) - as a fight against the fascists who betrayed the cause of the great Bandera (AFU), or simply fascists (VSN) ... which, in general, is is happening!
    Russian business is richly represented in Ukraine, and Ukrainian in Russia is no poorer ... and to discount their interests is, to put it mildly, recklessly! politics by politics, but - as they say: the main thing is health, and money is ... most important !!!
    1. Victor Kamenev
      April 27 2015 09: 55
      When the war began, business is silent, subject to geopolitics. Or a business that makes war. Neither Ukrainian nor Russian are not included in this category, and even European.
      Probably, American TNCs can influence or simply pursue geopolitical goals, ambitions are sometimes higher than money.
  11. Olga Samoilova
    Olga Samoilova April 27 2015 09: 35
    It’s very good that Moscow has taken Western experience into its arsenal. This is the key. Since the United States usually operates according to their favorite scenario, which they have been developing for many years. In the other scenario, the United States now simply has no strength, no money, no time; )
  12. loaln
    loaln April 27 2015 09: 43
    Standard revival with blooming oats. Such a smooth attempt to combine not the desired with the real, but the real with the once desired.
    The only valuable message is the desire to act after May 9th. Not somehow, but simply to act. By filtering out "allies" from supporters. And, finally realizing that the USSR had no "allies" in the Second World War, there were fellow travelers who, if they had the opportunity, grabbed their "partners". There is no need to wrap up animal hatred not for Russianness in beautiful packaging, but for the manifestation of unwillingness to integrate into the already created economic slaveholding system.
    1. Victor Kamenev
      April 27 2015 10: 00
      But in essence, is there something to say? After all, there is nothing in the text ...
  13. The comment was deleted.
  14. Bormental
    Bormental April 27 2015 10: 51
    Oops Briefly and clearly.
  15. The comment was deleted.
  16. Prisoner
    Prisoner April 27 2015 11: 17
    Pintos are dumb. And before, there was no subtlety in their political games, but at least there was no effect. But it looks like the opponents are learning to hold the blow, they are developing, and these are marking time. They decided that they are the very most and calmed down. So you can rest.
  17. bondman
    bondman April 27 2015 12: 08
    "..and they demand to supply Bandera with modern American weapons"

    The word "Bandera" should be written with a small letter. Better not to write it at all.
  18. fomkin
    fomkin April 27 2015 12: 08
    I still see continuous concessions and unforeseen circumstances, we will probably again act according to plan "F". Or as a last resort, gas prices will be thrown off again. Porosenko needs money for the war with Novorossiya.
  19. silver_roman
    silver_roman April 27 2015 14: 44
    Perhaps Moscow will take important steps to recognize the new Russian republics. It's time…

    There is one BUT. If these republics are recognized as independent, then it will no longer be possible to rebuild from the expense of an unaltered one. The whole burden will fall on Russia, and now it’s not just taking into account problems in the economy (oil, sanctions, the Central Bank with its own rates and capital outflows, etc.), the restoration of Crimea, also on the nose of the World Cup in the 18th year. In general, a lot of things. We have already cut the space program, even cutting the defense industry. And Donbass is about 10 million people with huge problems in all sectors. Of course, I don’t tell them to be left to their own devices, but you need to correctly use the available forces, because enemies of Russia have repeatedly used this rake!
  20. Vasman
    Vasman April 27 2015 15: 10
    How similar scribblers about the cunning plan of GDP lifted up. I would like to tell him and the like go to the Donbass under shelling and bring your families out and broadcast from there. There the Russians are dying, they wanted to lay down on the geyropu and other fag. Putin enter the troops.
    1. satris
      satris April 27 2015 17: 06
      Take the machine - and go!
  21. zurbagan63
    zurbagan63 April 27 2015 18: 22
    Moscow, of course, is doing everything possible to dignify - and peacefully! - celebrate your Great Victory, pay tribute to the deed of the fathers, but then your hands will be untied ...
    Interesting, however ...