Ayatollah Khamenei and the “nuclear issue”
In early March, negotiations between the US and Iran on the nuclear program took place in Montreux. March 31 is the deadline by which the parties must reach an agreement. Negotiations will resume on March 15 in Lausanne. In the meantime, Washington threatened Tehran with all sorts of “answers” up to a military operation - if Iran failed to fulfill its obligations under the nuclear program. The main decisions in Iran are made, as is known, by the Ayatollah.
3 March in Montreux (Switzerland), the parties did not make progress. Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif reports the channel "Euronews", said that the proposal of Barack Obama to freeze the nuclear program for at least ten years is unacceptable.
Thus, the parties are still in a negotiated impasse.
March 9 RIA News"referring to Press TV, reported that negotiations between Washington and Tehran will resume 15 March in Swiss Lausanne.
The delegations of the parties will be headed by Secretary of State John Kerry and his Iranian counterpart Mohammad Javad Zarif. The meeting will also be attended by deputy heads of diplomatic departments, political director of the EU diplomatic service Helga Schmid, head of the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran Ali Akbar Salehi, US Secretary of Energy Ernest Moniz.
A few days ago, the Iranian government, and at the same time, (indirectly) US President Obama was “pressured” by Republican senators.
TV and Radio Company "BBC" reported that 47 Republican senators warned Tehran: an agreement on the nuclear program, not approved by congressmen, will be valid only as long as Obama is in office.
In response, Obama criticized the written initiative of the Republicans, accusing them of interfering in the negotiation process.
At the same time, the White House made a number of resolute statements - with the clear goal of putting pressure on the uncompromising Iranian side.
As reported by 9 March "Lenta.ru" With reference to TASS and the Associated Press, White House spokesman Josh Ernest made a statement regarding Iran’s nuclear program.
If Iran fails to comply with its nuclear program commitments, the United States will consider various retaliatory measures, including the military, Ernest said. “If we find out that Iran somehow circumvents the terms of the agreement, then the president will have a full set of possible actions. These are additional sanctions, new steps coordinated with the international community or even military measures, ”Lenta quotes him.
Ernest made another statement, sharply criticizing the letter to Tehran to forty-seven Republicans. According to the representative of the White House, the Republicans by their initiative express their desire to immediately go to the power methods of influence, without giving diplomacy a chance.
As for the reaction to the Iranian letter, Javad Zarif called this letter of the senators a “propaganda ploy”, which undermines not only the future agreement between the United States and Iran, but also other international agreements.
Despite significant differences, many analysts believe that the chances of a successful conclusion of the negotiations between the two states are great.
"The probability of concluding an agreement is more than 50% ... According to my feelings, both parties are convinced that this agreement will do more good than its absence," the magazine quotes "Expert" Mohammad Javad Zarif.
The “expert” indicates that this statement is true for both sides of the negotiations. For Obama, in conflict with Congress for the sake of an agreement, it could be a major (and long-awaited) diplomatic victory. For the President of the Islamic Republic of Iran, Hassan Rouhani and his foreign minister, the agreement "is a matter of political survival."
However, the main person solving the nuclear issue in Tehran is not Rouhani and certainly not the foreign minister. Chief - Ayatollah Khamenei, the supreme leader (rahbar) of the Islamic Republic.
Rahbar - a rather contradictory nature.
Ksenia Melnikova ("Lenta.ru") recalls that Khamenei is known for supporting the trends of Western science and the development of technology. It was he who was the first of the Islamic clergy to approve research in the field of stem cells and therapeutic cloning.
He issued a fatwa on the production, stockpiling and use of nuclear weapons: it is forbidden by Islam. He later approved the Iranian peaceful nuclear program, noting that "oil and gas reserves are not unlimited."
Khamenei is known as an amateur and connoisseur of European literature and culture in general, but this did not prevent him from issuing a fatwa on musical corruption of children: "Both Western and traditional Iranian music in schools contradicts Islamic teaching."
The United States (“big Satan”), Comrade Khamenei, criticized for decades. However, over the years, criticism has weakened. In the 21st century, Khamenei is already quite vague: “The basis of our foreign policy is the termination of relations with the United States. But we never said that the relationship was terminated forever. "
In 2014, analysts started talking about the “thaw” between the US and Iran. At the traditional performance of Khamenei in Mashhad on the first day of spring, Ayatollah noted that he had no optimism about direct contacts with the United States, but he immediately added: "But I am not against them."
Chief Researcher of the IMEMO RAN, George Mirsky, told Lente.ru that Iran has to make concessions to the West: “The policy of each ruler depends on the circumstances. The economy of Iran is in a difficult position. Khamenei has to reckon with this, as well as with the opinion of his elite. Of course, if everything depended only on Khamenei, he would be against any rapprochement with the West. The great ayatollah said more than once that if Iran reconciled with the United States, "the country would be flooded with Western spies." The founder of the Republic of Iran, Khomeini, also repeated all the time: “We fear not Western armies, but Western universities”.
In September last year, reminds K. Melnikov, 75-year-old Ayatollah underwent a serious operation. Rumors about a successor crawl through Iran. However, the rakhbar assures the public that there is no need to fear about his health.
“Regardless of who comes after Khamenei, you should not especially expect that the country's foreign or domestic policy will change dramatically. Iran and its conservative elite do not tolerate sharp movements, ”writes K. Melnikova.
Thus, analysts and experts do not expect any serious changes in the position of Iran at the talks, even in case of a change in the spiritual leader of Iran. Conservative Iranian elite will not go on about Washington.
As for the harsh rhetoric of the White House, which even hinted at a military operation, Iran is not the first to hear such threats.
There is a third one - what can play a decisive role in the upcoming March 15 negotiations. The Iranian economy, built mainly on mineral trade on the world market, has long been reeling because of prohibitive measures imposed against the republic by the West. And resolving the issue of an agreement on a nuclear program really represents a path to "survival." Therefore, probably, by mid-March, the parties will still work out some kind of compromise.
3 March in Montreux (Switzerland), the parties did not make progress. Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif reports the channel "Euronews", said that the proposal of Barack Obama to freeze the nuclear program for at least ten years is unacceptable.
Thus, the parties are still in a negotiated impasse.
March 9 RIA News"referring to Press TV, reported that negotiations between Washington and Tehran will resume 15 March in Swiss Lausanne.
The delegations of the parties will be headed by Secretary of State John Kerry and his Iranian counterpart Mohammad Javad Zarif. The meeting will also be attended by deputy heads of diplomatic departments, political director of the EU diplomatic service Helga Schmid, head of the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran Ali Akbar Salehi, US Secretary of Energy Ernest Moniz.
A few days ago, the Iranian government, and at the same time, (indirectly) US President Obama was “pressured” by Republican senators.
TV and Radio Company "BBC" reported that 47 Republican senators warned Tehran: an agreement on the nuclear program, not approved by congressmen, will be valid only as long as Obama is in office.
In response, Obama criticized the written initiative of the Republicans, accusing them of interfering in the negotiation process.
At the same time, the White House made a number of resolute statements - with the clear goal of putting pressure on the uncompromising Iranian side.
As reported by 9 March "Lenta.ru" With reference to TASS and the Associated Press, White House spokesman Josh Ernest made a statement regarding Iran’s nuclear program.
If Iran fails to comply with its nuclear program commitments, the United States will consider various retaliatory measures, including the military, Ernest said. “If we find out that Iran somehow circumvents the terms of the agreement, then the president will have a full set of possible actions. These are additional sanctions, new steps coordinated with the international community or even military measures, ”Lenta quotes him.
Ernest made another statement, sharply criticizing the letter to Tehran to forty-seven Republicans. According to the representative of the White House, the Republicans by their initiative express their desire to immediately go to the power methods of influence, without giving diplomacy a chance.
As for the reaction to the Iranian letter, Javad Zarif called this letter of the senators a “propaganda ploy”, which undermines not only the future agreement between the United States and Iran, but also other international agreements.
Despite significant differences, many analysts believe that the chances of a successful conclusion of the negotiations between the two states are great.
"The probability of concluding an agreement is more than 50% ... According to my feelings, both parties are convinced that this agreement will do more good than its absence," the magazine quotes "Expert" Mohammad Javad Zarif.
The “expert” indicates that this statement is true for both sides of the negotiations. For Obama, in conflict with Congress for the sake of an agreement, it could be a major (and long-awaited) diplomatic victory. For the President of the Islamic Republic of Iran, Hassan Rouhani and his foreign minister, the agreement "is a matter of political survival."
However, the main person solving the nuclear issue in Tehran is not Rouhani and certainly not the foreign minister. Chief - Ayatollah Khamenei, the supreme leader (rahbar) of the Islamic Republic.
Rahbar - a rather contradictory nature.
Ksenia Melnikova ("Lenta.ru") recalls that Khamenei is known for supporting the trends of Western science and the development of technology. It was he who was the first of the Islamic clergy to approve research in the field of stem cells and therapeutic cloning.
He issued a fatwa on the production, stockpiling and use of nuclear weapons: it is forbidden by Islam. He later approved the Iranian peaceful nuclear program, noting that "oil and gas reserves are not unlimited."
Khamenei is known as an amateur and connoisseur of European literature and culture in general, but this did not prevent him from issuing a fatwa on musical corruption of children: "Both Western and traditional Iranian music in schools contradicts Islamic teaching."
The United States (“big Satan”), Comrade Khamenei, criticized for decades. However, over the years, criticism has weakened. In the 21st century, Khamenei is already quite vague: “The basis of our foreign policy is the termination of relations with the United States. But we never said that the relationship was terminated forever. "
In 2014, analysts started talking about the “thaw” between the US and Iran. At the traditional performance of Khamenei in Mashhad on the first day of spring, Ayatollah noted that he had no optimism about direct contacts with the United States, but he immediately added: "But I am not against them."
Chief Researcher of the IMEMO RAN, George Mirsky, told Lente.ru that Iran has to make concessions to the West: “The policy of each ruler depends on the circumstances. The economy of Iran is in a difficult position. Khamenei has to reckon with this, as well as with the opinion of his elite. Of course, if everything depended only on Khamenei, he would be against any rapprochement with the West. The great ayatollah said more than once that if Iran reconciled with the United States, "the country would be flooded with Western spies." The founder of the Republic of Iran, Khomeini, also repeated all the time: “We fear not Western armies, but Western universities”.
In September last year, reminds K. Melnikov, 75-year-old Ayatollah underwent a serious operation. Rumors about a successor crawl through Iran. However, the rakhbar assures the public that there is no need to fear about his health.
“Regardless of who comes after Khamenei, you should not especially expect that the country's foreign or domestic policy will change dramatically. Iran and its conservative elite do not tolerate sharp movements, ”writes K. Melnikova.
Thus, analysts and experts do not expect any serious changes in the position of Iran at the talks, even in case of a change in the spiritual leader of Iran. Conservative Iranian elite will not go on about Washington.
As for the harsh rhetoric of the White House, which even hinted at a military operation, Iran is not the first to hear such threats.
There is a third one - what can play a decisive role in the upcoming March 15 negotiations. The Iranian economy, built mainly on mineral trade on the world market, has long been reeling because of prohibitive measures imposed against the republic by the West. And resolving the issue of an agreement on a nuclear program really represents a path to "survival." Therefore, probably, by mid-March, the parties will still work out some kind of compromise.
Observed and commented on Oleg Chuvakin
- especially for topwar.ru
- especially for topwar.ru
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