Against the nation of the cross and the nation of the pyramids
Libyan Islamists began to pose a serious threat to both the countries of North Africa and the European Union. However, while the list of states that are ready to connect to the sweep of Libya from the radicals is extremely small
The events in Ukraine have distracted the attention of the international community from other major stress points of the modern world. However, the brutal murder of two dozen Egyptian Christians in Libya forced the Europeans to distract from the indiscriminate criticism of Russian politics in Ukraine and pay attention to their southern periphery. And for many of them, it turned out to be a surprise that the country freed from the “bloody dictator Gaddafi” not only did not become a flourishing democracy, but also turned into a refuge for radical Islamists, in particular, from the notorious Islamic State (IG).
As a result, the question now is on the agenda: what to do? A number of Arab states are not against solving the problem with the Islamists radically - through a military invasion. They fear that the "Islamist virus" from Libya will spread to the neighboring Arab countries - Egypt and Algeria. The problem is that they do not have enough resources for such a war, so they are trying to pull European countries to the operation and to carry out the relevant resolution through the UN Security Council. However, Europe is still hesitating. Some of the countries of the Old World (first of all France and Russia) are for various reasons interested in helping the Arabs eliminate IG in Libya, but they fear that this is what the Islamists want. The “Islamic State” benefits military intervention in Libya from outside, because it believes that under the sauce of the liberation struggle it will be able to unite around itself all the numerous Libyan armed groups and finally turn the country into a part of the Caliphate.
Egypt had to answer
It is difficult to call today's Libya a country - it has neither an economy, nor armed forces, nor a government system, nor even a single government. However, if before all this was the problem of the Libyans themselves (they only touched Europe when another group of Bedouins seized the oil terminals), now rapidly “greening” Libya threatens the entire region and even the EU countries on the other side of the Mediterranean Sea.
In fact, the country has not recovered after the overthrow of Muammar Gaddafi. Today there are two governments in Libya: the official, internationally recognized, which sits in the city of Tobruk (near the border with Egypt), and the Islamist group “Dawn of Libya”, which controls the capital of the country Tripoli. However, in addition to them, over a hundred different militias and gangs of more than 125 thousand people are operating in Libya. They rob, extort, kill. It is not surprising that the complete lack of order and justice in the country led, as it once did in Afghanistan, to a request for an Islamic order and the unification of all Islamist groups (and many of them do not obey the "Dawn of Libya"). Especially when they have before their eyes an example of the “Islamic State” - the first of the modern international terrorist groups, which managed to seize and hold a huge territory for a long time. “Such a“ successful ”project, which is the“ Islamic State ”, today is very popular among similar structures in the region. In view of this, an increasing number of militants who conduct their activities in the Middle East and North Africa are striving to go under the banner of the IG, ”explains Orientalist senior lecturer in the political science department of the Higher School of Economics Leonid Isaev.
As a result, in November 2014, several thousand militiamen (presumably from a local Islamist cell) who controlled the city of Derna with its surroundings, swore allegiance to the leader of the IG Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi. The “caliph” himself took the oath and sent one of his associates to the turf as an “emir of the Islamic state”. The international “presentation” of the new branch took place on February 15. That day, a video appeared on the network in which Islamists beheaded a 21 Christian (the vast majority of them were Coptic guest workers from Egypt, captured in Libya at the end of last year).
Official Cairo simply could not ignore such a crime. First, not just its citizens were killed, but Christians. President Abdel-Fattah al-Sisi needed to demonstrate to the whole world, and especially to the West, that the current authorities (unlike the Muslim Brotherhood and their President Mohammed Mursi, whom Al-Sisi overthrew) do not hurt their Christians. And the announcement of the seven-day mourning in the country is not enough. In addition, without a harsh reaction, interfaith unrest could begin in the country, which would be used by opponents of the al-Sisi regime in Europe and the United States.
Secondly, and more importantly, Egypt, despite all the events of recent years that have occurred in the country, still claims leadership in the Arab world. And such claims oblige him to act accordingly, that is, not to be limited to complaints to the UN or the League of Arab States or to the promise "to give an appropriate response at the appropriate time."
Islamist virus can spread from Libya to Egypt
That is why the “right time” came just a few hours after the video with the execution was made public, and the “proper response” was the two series of air strikes of the Egyptian Air Force on the positions of the Islamists in the Libyan city of Derna. According to preliminary data, warehouses with weapons, training camps and several dozen IG fighters. Then the Egyptian special forces conducted an operation on land, destroying militants near 150 and taking some of them as prisoners. In response, the Libyan Islamists threatened problems for Egyptian citizens in Libya. “We strongly urge all Egyptians working in Libya and staying here to leave the country no later than 48 hours in order to avoid revenge and not expose themselves to other possible deliberate actions that will only exacerbate the situation between the two fraternal peoples,” the group said in a statement. Dawn of Libya.
Islamists are inviting invasion
Egypt's successful local operation against radical Islamists from the “Islamic State” put on the agenda the question of developing success and a full-scale cleansing of Libya from the Islamists. However, this is precisely what the Islamists are waiting for.
By itself, the operation of Egypt is necessary and interesting. Further Islamization of Libya (and even more so if the Islamic State consolidates around itself most of the Islamist groups of the former Jamahiriya) could become an existential threat to the secular authoritarian regime of al-Sisi. The Egyptian president has not yet finished clearing Egypt from the Muslim Brotherhood, and the emergence of a centralized Islamist state to the east of 1 could exacerbate civil conflict in Egyptian society between supporters of secular and Islamic forms of government. Therefore, in Cairo do not exclude the possibility of full-scale intervention of the Egyptian army in Libya. “What Egypt will or will not do is a matter of coordination and consultation with the Libyan government. It also depends on the nature of the existing threat - both for Libya itself and for the national sovereignty of Egypt, ”says Egyptian Foreign Minister Sameh Shoukri. “There is no choice but to listen to the opinion of the people of Libya and their government. They urge us to act. We will not allow our children to cut their heads, ”continues this thought by Abdel-Fattah al-Sisi himself.
However, the problem is that the opinion of the people of Libya is not so simple. Thus, the elites are already divided on the issue of evaluating the actions of Cairo. The country's official prime minister, Abdullah Abdurrahman Al-Thani, supported the idea of an invasion, and his subordinates added that the legitimate government gave the go-ahead to al-Sisi’s president for the bombing of Libyan territory. Their enthusiasm is understandable: since the chances of a nominal government regaining real status are minimal, they agree to any external assistance in destroying the Islamist authorities, even to the invasion of the Israeli army. As for the head of the Islamic government (which controls Tripoli) Omar al-Hasi, he said that the Egyptian air force airstrike was a violation of Libyan sovereignty, and the video with the execution of hostages may well be a fake. It is possible that in the event of a full-scale invasion, the position of the “unofficial” Tripoli will be even tougher.
There is no need to talk about local authorities, and especially about the population - they will definitely oppose the Egyptian intervention. Libyan sheikhs, accustomed to freedom after Gaddafi’s death, will neither support the idea of restoring unity of command in the country, much less any Egyptian “governor-general”. And the Libyans themselves are fundamentally against the very fact of the presence of Egyptian soldiers on their territory - traditionally difficult relations between the countries (during the Gaddafi rule, they even fought with each other).
Cairo does not have enough resources to clear Libya
Perhaps this is why some researchers consider the whole history with the execution of the Copts as a provocation of the IG, seeking to push Egypt to intervene in Libya. “The IG chose provocative tactics against its Arab neighbors. This is well seen in the example of the executed Jordanian pilot, and now the Egyptian Copts. Of course, the involvement of an increasing number of countries in the fighting plays into the hands of the “Islamic State”. The invasion of Egypt in Libya as a result will lead to the struggle of the Egyptians not so much against the militants of the IG, as against the Libyans themselves. Having forced its rivals to wallow in war with each other, the “Islamic State” will only create favorable conditions for itself both on the territory of Libya and on the territory of Egypt, exhausted by the war, ”believes Leonid Isaev. And this is not to mention the fact that the “war of liberation” against the Egyptians will help the Islamists from the IG to unite around themselves other Islamist groups of Libya and even, perhaps, to challenge the power of the “Dawn of Libya” in Tripoli.
The whole world
Egyptian authorities understand the fork that the Islamists have set for them. They have neither the resources, nor the capacity, nor the adventurism to intervene in Libya alone. That is why Abdel-Fattah al-Sisi wants to share risks with other countries and put together an anti-Libyan coalition.
Of course, secular-authoritarian Algeria shows the greatest interest in clearing Libya - it borders on the former Jamahiriya from the west and, like Egypt, is very afraid of the spread of the Islam bacillus into its territory. Some politicians in the West even offered the Egyptians and Algerians to couple for an intervention and divide Libya among themselves into zones of control. However, the Algerian authorities wisely refuse. They understand the full scope of the Libyan problems and realize that they are not able to clear Libya, even with Egypt. Therefore, Cairo took the course to create a broad coalition: President al-Sisi called on the UN Security Council to adopt a resolution on international intervention in the situation in Libya. In his opinion, both Arab and European countries should take part in the operation.
There should be no problems with Egypt’s neighbors in the region - most of the influential Arab countries fully support the actions of the Egyptian authorities and endorse radical actions against the Libyan Islamists. Only Qatar, closely associated with the Islamist government in Tobruk1, comes out. At a meeting of the League of Arab States, the Qatari people told the Egyptian representatives everything they thought about the illegal airstrikes of the Egyptian air force over Libyan territory. In response, according to rumors, the Egyptians accused the Qataris of financing terrorism. In general, they did not discover America - Qatari hear this kind of accusation regularly. Thus, a citizen of Qatar, Abdulrahman al-Nuaimi, whom the United States is suspected of financing terrorism in the Middle East, was, according to the former emir of Qatar, Hamad bin Khalifa al-Thani, his old friend, who helped him communicate with "adherents of the Islamic view of politics." However, in the case of Egypt, Qatar decided to respond and recalled the ambassador. However, his refusal to participate in a future operation is unlikely to affect its effectiveness.
With Europeans, the situation is somewhat more complicated. The Egyptians emphasize that the IG threatens not only Cairo, but also the Old World (Islamists who executed the Copts threatened to completely destroy the “nation of the cross” and go to conquer Europe). “Without a doubt, stability and security in Egypt is a prerequisite for maintaining stability and security in all countries of the Mediterranean, as well as in countries throughout the European Union,” said Egyptian Defense Minister Sedka Sobhi. However, the idea of invasion did not receive much understanding.
Europeans, of course, recognize the very fact of the threat. “The risk is more than obvious, and we can no longer wait. There is an urgent need to organize the defense against the spread of this caliphate across the sea to our territory, ”said Italian Foreign Minister Roberta Pinotti, and Italian Prime Minister Matteo Renzi calls on Europe to wake up. "Britain is still firm in its desire to overcome the Islamic State," said his British counterpart David Cameron. “We make it clear that Libya should not become a safe haven for terrorists.”
However, in Rome, as in London, they believe that the Libyan problem should be solved primarily through political means - through the mission of UN special representative for Libya Bernardino Leon, who is trying to create a national unity government in the country. British and Italian politicians hope that against the backdrop of the revitalization of ISIS jihadists in Libya, sound forces from the Dawn of Libya and the official government in Tobruk will show greater pragmatism and find a compromise. “We do not believe that fighting can solve the problem in Libya,” said United Kingdom Foreign Secretary Philip Hammond. “We believe in a comprehensive political solution.”
Hawks in Paris and Moscow
However, in Europe there are forces interested in more radical methods of dealing with IS. First of all, it is France and Russia.
In Paris, they are seriously concerned about the penetration of radical Islam in Europe, primarily in France. “The number of threats is increasing every day. And to counter these threats, we need allies, ”says French Defense Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian. However, France has other reasons to participate in the Libyan campaign.
First, the owners of the Elysian Palace still cherish hopes to become masters of at least some of the Libyan oil and gas fields. These hopes are warmed up by the fact that these deposits were already promised to the French as a payment for overthrowing Gaddafi, but largely because of the intrigues of Qatar, the promise was not fulfilled. And now the second attempt by France to enter Libya will be perceived as a kind of revenge. The potential for the work of the French oil industry in this country is enormous: while with Gaddafi Libya produced 1,6 million barrels of oil per day, now this figure barely falls to 350 thousand.
Secondly, the participation of France in the war in Libya can help the French gunsmiths. They have already signed a contract for the supply of Egypt 24 multi-purpose aircraft Rafale. Jean-Yves Le Drian called the deal the beginning of increased cooperation for the benefit of regional security. And it is possible that within the framework of this increased cooperation, France will try to sell Egypt and other types of weapons, thereby at least partially recovering the most serious image losses in the arms market, which Paris suffered because of the failure of the Mistral deal.
Moscow has also shown interest in the struggle against the Islamists in Libya. “The President of Russia once again confirmed that the Russian side is ready for the closest cooperation with Egypt in the fight against all manifestations of the terrorist threat,” the Kremlin’s press service said.
The reason is not only that the Kremlin is trying to build allied relations with Cairo and turn it into a springboard for further penetration into the Middle East. And not only that the war in North Africa, and even more so with the participation of European countries, can finally divert the attention of the world community from the Ukrainian crisis. IG is simply viewed by Russia as an absolute evil, and it is ready to help everyone who intends to unconditionally (and not selectively, like the USA) fight this evil. “It's like a cancer, metastases, sprawling in different directions,” explains Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Mikhail Bogdanov. “This is all very alarming and directly affects us, affects the interests of our national security, as well as our friends in the region.” And to fight this tumor, an ally is better than a secular authoritarian Egypt, Moscow cannot be found. In turn, the Egyptians also need Russian support, above all, the supply of weapons that Russia is ready to carry out without being tied to political issues. “We, for example, supplied arms to the government of Iraq, while the United States decided on paper what to do,” says Russia's special representative to the UN, Vitaly Churkin. At the same time, the Egyptians can be confident in the reliability of Russia: in contrast to the United States or Great Britain, Moscow has no desire to use the IG to combat regimes it does not like in the Middle East.
However, apparently, despite the Russian and French support, Egypt will not start fighting in Libya now. Faced with a lack of enthusiasm in Europe, Cairo headed for the gradual involvement of the West in Libyan affairs. “No one talked about a military invasion. Egypt called on the international community to take responsibility with respect to Libya, this is expressed in various and numerous forms, ”said the representative of the Egyptian Foreign Ministry Badr Abdel Ata. In particular, we can talk about the naval blockade. “It is necessary to take concrete measures to prevent the acquisition of weapons by all non-state formations and organizations through the introduction of a naval blockade on weapons sent to areas of Libya beyond the control of legitimate authorities,” said Egyptian Foreign Minister Sameh Shoukri.
At the same time, it is proposed to lift the arms embargo to the Libyan government. 18 February, the relevant resolution was submitted by Jordan for consideration by the UN Security Council. Moscow has already agreed to support it, but only if the prescribed mechanisms are added to it and guarantees that these weapons “will not spread throughout Libya”. However, London opposes even the supply of weapons, so the fate of the resolution is still in question.
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