Russia and China: Latin America in dance
In recent years, China and Russia have been dancing more energetically to the rhythms of Latin American trade and diplomacy. Two giants from the East need business allies, resources and friends who share their desire to lower the curtain on the era of US domination. During their dance march through Latin America, they find in excess both the first, and the second, and the third.
The United States, to all appearances, indifferent to the Chinese and Russian offensive in their backyard, sit down more and more Latin American dances. But there is another world power whose salsa shoes will not be removed in the near future; this strengthening power block will hinder the advancement of Beijing and Moscow in Latin America.
Cha Cha China
Against the backdrop of the American retreat from Latin America, China has become a major player who came to the vacant seat with her cha-cha-cha dance.
From 2000 to 2009, the trade turnover between China and Latin America grew by dizzying 1200 percent. If current trends continue, China will overtake the European Union next year and become the second largest trading partner of Latin America. During 10 years, bilateral trade is expected to reach 500 billions of dollars annually.
China's Latin dance venture in Latin America also includes an ever-increasing amount of investment. Last month, PRC Chairman Xi Jinping promised to invest billions of dollars in the 250 region. "With a relatively small fanfare, China occupied the far left of economic development in Latin America, with an ambitious 10-year investment plan for the size of the Marshall Plan," said Latin American expert Juan de Onis.
I saw some of these investments with my own eyes last October in St. Georges during a trip to Grenada. A local tour guide named Duffy pointed to a giant sports stadium, reconstructed with 31,5 million dollars allocated by the Chinese government. “We don’t even know why China wants to repair it for us,” Duffy told the group. “We think China wants Grenada to be ready to help him, if it ever needs it.”
Apparently, China also began work on the construction of the channel through Nicaragua. This 50 billion-dollar venture is claimed to be the largest engineering project in the world and has enormous geopolitical significance. The channel must cut through the Central American country and connect the Pacific and Atlantic oceans. According to officials in 2019, it will open for commercial use. In terms of width and depth, the Nicaraguan Canal will far surpass the Panama Canal a few hundred miles south of it, which will allow Nicaragua to receive modern cargo ships that are too large to pass through the latter. The fact that the Panama Canal, which was built by the United States, will be in the shadow, will mark the challenge of American hegemony in Latin America. Critics of the project indicate that he will give China a de facto military base in a very dangerous proximity to the United States.
From Cuba to Chile, the Chinese dragon makes the highway, shaking its hips under the fiery Latin American polyrhythms of conga drums. By offering mojito here and sharing a fine cigar there, China wins friends on a large Latin American dance floor.
Rumba of Russia
In the past decade, Russia has been working to restore its position in Latin America, which the Soviet Union had in the Cold War era. Its efforts have intensified in recent months after the United States and Europe have slammed sanctions on Russia as a punishment for its role in the Ukrainian crisis. These sanctions have increased the attractiveness of the Latin American markets for Russia.
In July, Russian President Vladimir Putin made a six-day tour of Latin America, visiting Cuba, Argentina, Brazil and Nicaragua, and meeting with 11 regional leaders.
In Cuba, Putin signed several important agreements in the field of oil production and security, as well as forgiving 90 percent (about 32 billions) of Cuban debt that remained unpaid from Soviet times. For such a relatively poor country as Cuba, to receive the forgiveness of such a large debt is a considerable event. Putin said that the remaining 10 percent will be reinvested in infrastructure in Cuba. After the visit, there were reports that Cuba even agreed to reopen the Soviet-era bases for Russia.
Argentina is one of the few countries that supported the annexation of the Crimea to Russia. During Putin’s trip to this country, he paid tribute to this support by signing security and trade agreements, as well as a landmark deal to build nuclear power plants in Argentina. In addition, Russia has proposed to put a dozen fighters to Argentina, which could inflame the dispute over the Falkland Islands.
Similar transactions, along with agreements in the field aviation, arms and technical cooperation, Putin signed with Brazil. Putin’s visit to Nicaragua was the first time that the Russian president visited this country. His conversation with Nicaraguan President Daniel Ortega dealt with issues of collaboration from security to agriculture. Ortega called Putin’s visit "historical"as well as a ray of light."
In all four countries, Putin has taken steps to build GLONASS stations - the Russian response to the American GPS. At the end of the tour, Putin said that Russia needed to “re-establish its presence in this extremely interesting, promising region of the world.”
Analysts considered Putin’s tour to be “extremely interesting”, especially considering the choice of time for his rumba across the continent. “The fact that Vladimir Putin managed to carve out a whole week for a trip to the region speaks volumes,” Vladimir Davydov, director of the Institute of Latin America at the Russian Academy of Sciences, said in an interview with Russia Beyond the Headlines. an unaffordable luxury, but this tour is more relevant than ever. At the moment when the West is trying to lure Russia into the "Ukrainian trap", it showed that Russia is fully capable of winning back the old allies and starting new ones. "
In recent months, Russian bombers have patrolled the Caribbean, landing in Venezuela and Nicaragua. Russia conducted joint military exercises with Venezuela, and Russian ships entered the Cuban and Venezuelan ports. Meanwhile, the Russian gas giant Gazprom is making major investments in Argentina and Bolivia, and the state-controlled company Rosneft is working more and more dynamically in Venezuela.
Making a promenade with turns and bends on the endless Latin American dance floor, the Russian bear settles the position of unprecedented strategic value. "It can be ... argued that Russia now has more influence in Latin America than during the Cold War," wrote Moscow analyst Andrei Korybko on 22 in August 2014.
Synchronous samba bear and dragon
China and Russia do not see the threat in each other’s footsteps in Latin America. On the contrary, they dance key in their offensive in unison.
In support of the China-funded Nicaraguan Canal project, Russia has promised to provide military cover to secure the construction process. Starting this year, Nicaragua will provide its territory for the Russian base, and the fleets of Moscow will patrol the country's Pacific and Caribbean coasts, ensuring that no one interferes with China’s ambitious project.
In July, Putin's and C's paths crossed in Brazil, where they solemnly announced the “development bank” of the new world, designed to challenge the financial institutions in which the US plays the main role. Russia and China will manage the bank with the support of Brazil, as well as India and South Africa.
All this is superimposed on a deeply significant trend. “Russian and Chinese participation in the affairs of the [Latin American] region is growing at an exciting pace, and it is so multifaceted that it opens up the possibility for a dramatic geopolitical transformation right on the doorstep of the United States,” wrote Korybko.
“In general, Latin America is the most suitable rear base for the multipolar world offensive in the backyard of a fading unipolar giant,” he said. “The interests of Russia and China do not compete in this theater absolutely, which undoubtedly demonstrates the daunting strategic tasks of the EIFP [ Russian-Chinese strategic partnership] in general. "
Korybko explained that Latin America is eager to dance tango with Russia and China because many countries in this region have a strong hostility to the United States and know that these sentiments are shared in Moscow and Beijing. For Russia and China, this strong hostility means that Latin American countries can be "flexibly controlled from afar to attract even more harmful measures against their former hegemon," Korybko wrote.
Will Europe sit back?
The United States is indifferent to the Russian-Chinese attack on their backyard. But what about Europe? Will the Europeans allow their relative continent to more and more join with Moscow and Beijing? Will Europe give the waltz to the bear and the dragon to put everyone else in the belt?
For more than five centuries, Europe and Latin America have been interconnected by religion and language as continent sisters. This cultural community has long given European powers a privileged economic position in relations with the countries of South and Central America. Currently, the European Union remains the second largest trading partner of Latin America (after the US). However, the influence of Europe in Latin America decreased slightly, while the ambitions of Beijing and Moscow increased. Tens of years ago, the Chinese revolutionary Marxist Mao Zedong promised his people: "All that the West has will be with China." The invasion of China into Latin America is evidence that Mao’s words still resonate in the mindset of the Chinese.
Do not doubt, Europe will not passively stand aside and will not allow China and Russia to push themselves from the dance floor.
At about the same time that Putin visited Cuba, Pope Francis sent letters to the leaders of Cuba and the United States. These letters played a key role in global warming in US-Cuban relations, which was announced in December. The role of the pope in the agreement revives the influence of the Catholic Church, whose stronghold is Europe, in Cuba. Does this influence lead to the expulsion of Russia? For a time, the communist regime of Cuba may be able to play both sides against each other. But even the Pope’s maneuver significantly reduced Putin’s influence on the island nation.
Then, in January, the pope appointed five new Latin American cardinals, saying that this step "will show the inextricable links between the Roman Church" and the countries from which the newly appointed persons come. In addition, in January, Germany took an important step towards strengthening relations with Mexico City.
Currently, the lack of cohesion among European countries hinders the efforts of Europe to establish domination in Latin America. But strengthening the raids that China and Russia are committing to Latin America, oddly enough, will serve as a catalyst for EU unity. As long as China and Russia continue to dance mambo throughout the region, European countries, under German leadership and Vatican leadership, will increasingly work together, strengthening the position of Europe itself on a large Latin American dance floor.
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