Turkmen interest of the Islamic state
The attack of the Islamists from Afghanistan to the north can change the "gas balance" for both the West and the East
It is already clearly visible - preparations for the “Central Asian spring” are in full swing. Moreover, in addition to the eastern direction - through Kyrgyzstan and Uzbek Fergana, along the previously tested route of an advance to the north, the Islamists are preparing for a breakthrough the direction of western - to Turkmenistan. This is evidenced by what is happening in the border north-western regions of Afghanistan.
The attacks on the Turkmen border posts marked throughout the winter, spring and summer of 2014, in stark contrast to the calm on the Afghan-Turkmen border during the time of President Niyazov, whose relations with the Taliban can be described as positive neutrality. Since the beginning of autumn, the situation on the Afghan side of the border has deteriorated significantly.
Hundreds of civilians died, dozens of houses burned. Marked mass beheadings, previously uncharacteristic for this region. To experts it reminds handwriting ISIS. Turkmen border guards not only suffer significant casualties, but are also captured by Islamists. You can talk about the militants clearing border areas from the local population and preparing operational corridors for breaking through the Afghan-Turkmen border under the spring offensive of 2015.
Ashgabat in search of allies
The leadership of Turkmenistan is clearly aware of this. In addition to information on the strengthening of the Afghan border, which nobody has been engaged in since the collapse of the USSR, it should be noted that Ashgabat’s interaction with potential allies is intensifying - obviously not only on border security. For example, on September 10, IRNA reported on the visit of the Minister of Defense of the Islamic Republic of Iran, General Hosein Dehgan, to Turkmenistan - the first history bilateral relations.
The visit of the Iranian minister invited to Turkmenistan by his local counterpart, Begench Gundogdiyev, can be viewed as evidence of the start of coordinating Ashgabat’s actions with Tehran in the area of regional security. That is why it was not the commander of the border troops who was invited, which is logical if it were only about border security, but the Minister of Defense.
Dehgana was received by President Berdymukhammedov. The main topic of the visit was the interaction of Turkmenistan with Iran in the event of an invasion of Turkmenistan by Afghanistan. In the near future, maneuvers of the Iranian army are planned in the northeast ostan (province) of the Iranian Khorasan - Khorasan Rezavi. Turkmen military invited to these maneuvers as observers.
Characterized by the sudden appearance of the President of Turkmenistan in Dushanbe at the SCO summit as an honorary guest - although the country he headed earlier defiantly distanced itself from any regional initiatives and is not part of this international association. "On the margins of the summit," he held meetings with the presidents of Iran, Mongolia, the chairman of the People's Republic of China, as well as officials of a lesser rank from India and Pakistan.
The balance of power and threats
All this is clearly connected with the fact that the so-called Turkmen Taliban and their allies are pulling up forces in north-western Afghanistan, concentrating in two vilayets - Faryab and Bagdis. They control the road that runs along the Turkmen border, and can at any time launch an offensive both in the Murghab valley (Bagdis) and in the Andkhoy region (Faryab). Thus, they took control of almost all the territories along which the future TAPI gas pipeline could potentially go (Turkmenistan - Afghanistan - Pakistan - India).
Outside the control of the Islamists, there is still a territory along which the TAPI highway can be laid in Herat vilayet, along the Afghan-Iranian border. However, the route to Herat has always caused opposition from the United States, who would like to put Chevron at the head of construction as an operator. However, these considerations are relevant if the main task of the radicals in this region of Afghanistan is to block the TAPI gas pipeline or parasitize it to “protect”, if it will eventually be laid. It is possible that their goals are much more ambitious.
It is likely that the Afghan radicals will move to Turkmenistan. In this case, they will come not from Faryab, but from Bagdis vilayet, along the Murghab river valley. Despite the fact that there is a large fortified area in this place and the Takhta-Bazarsky border camp (from the name of the village Takhta-Bazar) is based since the times of the USSR, the Murghab valley is attractive as an offensive route to the north. There is a population that can be taken hostage, a grocery base, good roads, a large number of civilian and military vehicles and weapon.
As for the Turkmen Armed Forces, in the Iraqi Mosul, the army group that opposed the Islamists was much more significant and much better armed. It didn’t stop the ISIL fighters from taking the city. In the described Turkmen situation from Takhta Bazar on asphalt, you can quickly reach Iolotani, next to which is a large group of Galkynysh deposits (Southern Iolotan, Minara and others) - the Transcaspia resource base for Europe.
Currently, these fields are being developed by a group of service companies, mainly Chinese. In addition to them, Korean and Japanese companies supply and adjust equipment. It is from there that the East-West gas pipeline is being built to the Caspian coast. From Galkynysh, adjacent to the Murghab oasis, the pipe will stretch to 2016 year to the point Belek Turkmen, off the coast of the Caspian Sea. From this point it can go to the north, along the route of the Caspian pipeline that has not been built (Turkmenistan-Kazakhstan-Russia) or through the Caspian Sea, to the west. The first stage of the pipeline will pass 34 – 36 billions of cubic meters of gas per year. It is for this volume that a station is being built at the Galkynysh field for the drying and pre-sale preparation of gas, which is scheduled to be commissioned in the 2016 year.
Restitution smells gas
It should be noted that during the defeat of the Basmac movement in the 20-30-ies a number of large and influential Turkmen clans went to Afghanistan. Their ancestral lands remained in the territory of Turkmenistan. Claims for the return of these lands are still heard; this is the subject of constant blackmail of the Turkmen government by the Afghan Turkmen. This is especially true due to the fact that the two largest natural gas deposits are located near the lands that were lost by these clans - the Serakh and Murghab oases. The Davletabad fields adjacent to the Serakh oasis are the main source of raw materials for TAPI.
More recently, the Taliban completely controlled the Afghan-Turkmen borderland. In the area of Kushki, Takhta-Bazar and to the east - Andkhoy and Imam-Mazar, they were supplied with fuel and lubricants, from there Ukrainian Tanks and other weapons and military equipment. Fuel and lubricants were delivered along these routes for the Taliban after the coalition forces were introduced in 2001 precisely from the Turkmen territory. From the mid-zero to about 2010, it was fairly calm in these areas until the Salafis and other radicals appeared there. They fought with local leaders and seized power in some places.
Now the non-Turkmen are catching up with them, but there is no data, the Taliban is this or someone who is associated with Pashtuns and Tajiks. It is possible that these are IMU militants, including those who fought in Iraq and Syria in the ranks of the Islamic State. It is known from local Turkmen that many strangers come and they are not Afghans. Hazaras, Turkmen, Kurds, and Tajiks live in the area, but not too often, but they say about the newcomers precisely as about “mercenaries” and “foreigners”.
It is not yet clear why foreign jihadists are gathering in this region of Afghanistan. It is clear that the winter bases are being arranged, although it is likely that before winter they will not attack the Turkmen territory more than once. In the spring everything will clear up. If they saddle the road between Faryab and Bagdis and simply disturb Turkmen border guards, then their target is TAPI, a blockade of a pipeline or a racket. If they go along the Murghab deep into the territory of Turkmenistan, this is a direct threat to the East-West and Trans-Caspian projects. In this case, the implementation of the TAPI project will also be complicated, since the resource base - Davletabad is cut off from the main route.
Be that as it may, the A76 Andkhoy-Herat highway is brought under control by Islamists in several places: in the east of Faryab and in Bagdis. It is possible that by the spring in the north-west of Afghanistan a new enclave of the IG will be proclaimed. Judging by the mood in Herat, the concern of the local population and the authorities will not manifest itself until the beginning of the siege. The problems of the border areas do not care about them yet. Given the onset of autumnal cold, the official authorities of Afghanistan are unlikely to try to fight off the road to Bagdis and Faryab. At the same time, the IG attempted to gain a foothold in Afghan Kunduz. Before 80, people from this “landing” were killed by local Tajiks.
Whose tube is thicker
The Pipeline War in Central Asia continues - Turkmenistan is a bone of contention between Russia, Iran, China with its Central Asia-China project (CAC), the EU lobbying for the Trans-Caspian gas pipeline with the support of the United States, trying to reduce deliveries to the PRC and reduce to zero re-export of Turkmen gas through Russia, and TAPI. The latter is lobbied by the United States and Qatar and is trying to torpedo Saudi Arabia, which continues to fight this emirate in all areas of its foreign economic and foreign policy activities.
Characteristically, Qatar is attempting to expand its influence in the region, including traditionally closely associated with Iran and Tajikistan. 18 September was visited by a Qatari delegation headed by Sheikh Khalid ibn Soni oli Soni, chairman of the board of directors of the Izdon holding, who, at a meeting with President Emomali Rahmon, proposed cooperation in insurance, healthcare, banking, and active participation in several projects in Tajikistan. Before that, experts considered Kyrgyzstan, where their embassies were opened, as the main base for penetration of Qatar and Saudi Arabia into the region.
It is not excluded that Qatar’s sudden interest in Tajikistan is associated with the signing of 2013 in September during the visit of PRC Chairman Xi Jinping to Central Asia with the leadership of Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan on the construction and operation of the CAC gas pipeline. This route with a length of more than a thousand kilometers is one of the main projects of energy cooperation between China and the countries of Central Asia. It will begin in Turkmenistan, pass through the territory of the three countries mentioned and reach China in the city of Ucha in the Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region (XUAR). Construction should be completed in 2016 year, design capacity - 30 billion cubic meters per year.
The amount of investment in the construction of the line D is about 6,7 billion dollars. Upon completion of its construction, the annual volume of gas supplies through the TsAK gas pipeline will increase from 55 to 85 billion cubic meters. The pipeline will be the largest natural gas transportation system in Central Asia.
There is copper - and not to fuck
Note that in addition to pipelines in the region there is another important factor for China - the Aymak deposit, the second largest in the world in copper reserves. It was bought by the PRC, but there is not enough electricity for its development and primary enrichment of ore in the region. The issue with the Pakistani port of Gwadar, through which it was planned to export raw materials and where it was supposed to carry out enrichment to a higher stage, is not completely clear. Natural gas from Iran through the Mir pipe has been brought to the border from the Iranian side, but the Pakistani section of the pipeline has not been built and it is possible that it will not be built for a long time. Prospects for gas supplies through TAPI are also dubious - it was precisely to Gwadar that it was planned to branch off this pipeline.
The exploitation of Afghan lithium deposits, a resource of world importance, whose development is also impossible without infrastructure, has also been frozen. Accordingly, the Chinese factor in the region did not manifest itself, and how the PRC will behave in the event of an aggravation of the situation according to the scenario described above is not entirely clear. In any case, to access the fields, China needs infrastructure and energy. To build it and put energy resources in the region in the current conditions is more than problematic.
Cattle-Border Issue
The Afghan authorities do not control either the Afghan frontier in terms of the drug trade and the penetration of Islamist groups, or the movement of herders in the area between the demarcation line and the control-trace strip (PCB). Overgrazing livestock on the Afghan side of the border, land degradation leading to catastrophic mudflows even with low precipitation, and man-made desertification make Afghan dehkans and shepherds graze livestock in the so-called gray zone, especially since they consider this territory of Turkmenistan to be theirs.
Since Soviet times, between the demarcation line, indicated almost exclusively by pillars, that is, the actual boundary, 744 kilometer in length, to the control-trace strip, the distance is up to 20 – 30 kilometers along the entire border, especially in the mountains, where PCB is not built. This has been and remains a problem. Thus, the Iranians in the Soviet era reached with the grazing of livestock up to Ashgabat. The "gray" zone is controlled by border guards and secrets. By the way, thanks to her, Turkmenistan had the largest protected area in the USSR.
The aggravation of the situation in the Turkmen-Afghan border area posed the problem of its urgent strengthening from the Turkmen side. Afghan Turkmen from the Barakzai clan of the Qaisar etrap in the province of Faryab claim that in the course of carrying out the relevant events, the soldiers of Turkmenistan dived into their territory by five to six kilometers.
Actually, Turkmen border guards did not enter the Afghan territory. But they equipped barrage systems closer to the border demarcation line. At the same time, the ditch is four meters wide and five meters deep, reinforced with metal mesh barriers along which the road is laid, is clearly not designed to protect the border from cattle penetration. Tellingly, the strengthening of the Pakistani-Afghan border began at the same time, where ditches were dug up and barbed wire barriers from Pakistan were installed.
Less islam
In addition to external security, the leadership of Turkmenistan in August conducted a “de-Islamization” of the education system. As part of the implementation of the bilateral agreement “On cooperation in the field of education”, concluded between the governments of Turkmenistan and Turkey dated 15 in August 2014, the Turkmen-Turkish school and the Turkmen-Turkish university were closed. The school was left for the children of employees of Turkish companies operating in Turkmenistan. The university has been transformed, its programs have been revised, and tuition fees have been introduced by significant local standards.
At the same time, the agreement between Turkmenistan and Turkey in the field of education completely excluded any non-state interference. As part of the tightening of the teaching regime, subjects related to the study of religion and prayer hours, which were mandatory breaks between lessons, were excluded. All innovations of Fethullah Gülen are eliminated by mutual consent of the parties. Fortunately, Gülen's “Jemaat” during political reforms in Turkey, which resulted in Recep Tayyip Erdogan becoming president of this country, spoke out against him, playing the role of the “fifth column” in the government, Justice and Development Party, law enforcement and security agencies.
Route intrigue
From the point of view of realizing the potential of Turkmenistan as a reservoir of natural gas of world importance, the main intrigue of 2014 – 2015 will be the preservation (for the PRC, Russia and Iran) or the change (for the European Union and / or Pakistan) of export routes. A special question is the role of Islamist radicals based on the territory of Afghanistan in everything that happens, regardless of whether Qatar or Saudi Arabia supports them and whether the United States is behind this (and for whom).
The influence of the latter in the region is often exaggerated. So, among domestic military experts there is a strong opinion that the United States controls a military airfield in the city of Mary. Local experts say that there are no Americans there. They came there, conducted an examination and appealed to the Turkmen authorities for access to the airfield, but were refused.
In practice, the US logistics base operates at 2002 at the airport in Ashgabat, which is used to transport “non-lethal” cargo for the NATO group in Afghanistan. Military planes are seated there, the cargo is overloaded and then follows to Afghanistan (or was taken out of it as part of the withdrawal of the main American military contingent from that country until the end of 2014 of the year). The airport in Mary is much more convenient from the point of view of logistics, but the leadership of Turkmenistan did not give permission for this - it is possible, based on considerations of prospects for cooperation with Iran and Russia.
For all the independence of Turkmenistan, he has to reconcile his development plans with reality. Requiring neighbors in the Caspian Basin to abandon the principle of collective consent for laying pipelines along the seabed, which is a major obstacle to the export of Turkmen gas to the EU, President Berdymukhammedov may. To force Russia and Iran objecting to this to agree - no. Moreover, Azerbaijan is not ready to provide its gas transportation infrastructure to Ashgabat. It is unlikely that the United States or the Taliban will be able to change this situation.
It is already clearly visible - preparations for the “Central Asian spring” are in full swing. Moreover, in addition to the eastern direction - through Kyrgyzstan and Uzbek Fergana, along the previously tested route of an advance to the north, the Islamists are preparing for a breakthrough the direction of western - to Turkmenistan. This is evidenced by what is happening in the border north-western regions of Afghanistan.
The attacks on the Turkmen border posts marked throughout the winter, spring and summer of 2014, in stark contrast to the calm on the Afghan-Turkmen border during the time of President Niyazov, whose relations with the Taliban can be described as positive neutrality. Since the beginning of autumn, the situation on the Afghan side of the border has deteriorated significantly.
Hundreds of civilians died, dozens of houses burned. Marked mass beheadings, previously uncharacteristic for this region. To experts it reminds handwriting ISIS. Turkmen border guards not only suffer significant casualties, but are also captured by Islamists. You can talk about the militants clearing border areas from the local population and preparing operational corridors for breaking through the Afghan-Turkmen border under the spring offensive of 2015.
Ashgabat in search of allies
The leadership of Turkmenistan is clearly aware of this. In addition to information on the strengthening of the Afghan border, which nobody has been engaged in since the collapse of the USSR, it should be noted that Ashgabat’s interaction with potential allies is intensifying - obviously not only on border security. For example, on September 10, IRNA reported on the visit of the Minister of Defense of the Islamic Republic of Iran, General Hosein Dehgan, to Turkmenistan - the first history bilateral relations.
The visit of the Iranian minister invited to Turkmenistan by his local counterpart, Begench Gundogdiyev, can be viewed as evidence of the start of coordinating Ashgabat’s actions with Tehran in the area of regional security. That is why it was not the commander of the border troops who was invited, which is logical if it were only about border security, but the Minister of Defense.
Dehgana was received by President Berdymukhammedov. The main topic of the visit was the interaction of Turkmenistan with Iran in the event of an invasion of Turkmenistan by Afghanistan. In the near future, maneuvers of the Iranian army are planned in the northeast ostan (province) of the Iranian Khorasan - Khorasan Rezavi. Turkmen military invited to these maneuvers as observers.
Characterized by the sudden appearance of the President of Turkmenistan in Dushanbe at the SCO summit as an honorary guest - although the country he headed earlier defiantly distanced itself from any regional initiatives and is not part of this international association. "On the margins of the summit," he held meetings with the presidents of Iran, Mongolia, the chairman of the People's Republic of China, as well as officials of a lesser rank from India and Pakistan.
The balance of power and threats
All this is clearly connected with the fact that the so-called Turkmen Taliban and their allies are pulling up forces in north-western Afghanistan, concentrating in two vilayets - Faryab and Bagdis. They control the road that runs along the Turkmen border, and can at any time launch an offensive both in the Murghab valley (Bagdis) and in the Andkhoy region (Faryab). Thus, they took control of almost all the territories along which the future TAPI gas pipeline could potentially go (Turkmenistan - Afghanistan - Pakistan - India).
Outside the control of the Islamists, there is still a territory along which the TAPI highway can be laid in Herat vilayet, along the Afghan-Iranian border. However, the route to Herat has always caused opposition from the United States, who would like to put Chevron at the head of construction as an operator. However, these considerations are relevant if the main task of the radicals in this region of Afghanistan is to block the TAPI gas pipeline or parasitize it to “protect”, if it will eventually be laid. It is possible that their goals are much more ambitious.
It is likely that the Afghan radicals will move to Turkmenistan. In this case, they will come not from Faryab, but from Bagdis vilayet, along the Murghab river valley. Despite the fact that there is a large fortified area in this place and the Takhta-Bazarsky border camp (from the name of the village Takhta-Bazar) is based since the times of the USSR, the Murghab valley is attractive as an offensive route to the north. There is a population that can be taken hostage, a grocery base, good roads, a large number of civilian and military vehicles and weapon.
As for the Turkmen Armed Forces, in the Iraqi Mosul, the army group that opposed the Islamists was much more significant and much better armed. It didn’t stop the ISIL fighters from taking the city. In the described Turkmen situation from Takhta Bazar on asphalt, you can quickly reach Iolotani, next to which is a large group of Galkynysh deposits (Southern Iolotan, Minara and others) - the Transcaspia resource base for Europe.
Currently, these fields are being developed by a group of service companies, mainly Chinese. In addition to them, Korean and Japanese companies supply and adjust equipment. It is from there that the East-West gas pipeline is being built to the Caspian coast. From Galkynysh, adjacent to the Murghab oasis, the pipe will stretch to 2016 year to the point Belek Turkmen, off the coast of the Caspian Sea. From this point it can go to the north, along the route of the Caspian pipeline that has not been built (Turkmenistan-Kazakhstan-Russia) or through the Caspian Sea, to the west. The first stage of the pipeline will pass 34 – 36 billions of cubic meters of gas per year. It is for this volume that a station is being built at the Galkynysh field for the drying and pre-sale preparation of gas, which is scheduled to be commissioned in the 2016 year.
Restitution smells gas
It should be noted that during the defeat of the Basmac movement in the 20-30-ies a number of large and influential Turkmen clans went to Afghanistan. Their ancestral lands remained in the territory of Turkmenistan. Claims for the return of these lands are still heard; this is the subject of constant blackmail of the Turkmen government by the Afghan Turkmen. This is especially true due to the fact that the two largest natural gas deposits are located near the lands that were lost by these clans - the Serakh and Murghab oases. The Davletabad fields adjacent to the Serakh oasis are the main source of raw materials for TAPI.
More recently, the Taliban completely controlled the Afghan-Turkmen borderland. In the area of Kushki, Takhta-Bazar and to the east - Andkhoy and Imam-Mazar, they were supplied with fuel and lubricants, from there Ukrainian Tanks and other weapons and military equipment. Fuel and lubricants were delivered along these routes for the Taliban after the coalition forces were introduced in 2001 precisely from the Turkmen territory. From the mid-zero to about 2010, it was fairly calm in these areas until the Salafis and other radicals appeared there. They fought with local leaders and seized power in some places.
Now the non-Turkmen are catching up with them, but there is no data, the Taliban is this or someone who is associated with Pashtuns and Tajiks. It is possible that these are IMU militants, including those who fought in Iraq and Syria in the ranks of the Islamic State. It is known from local Turkmen that many strangers come and they are not Afghans. Hazaras, Turkmen, Kurds, and Tajiks live in the area, but not too often, but they say about the newcomers precisely as about “mercenaries” and “foreigners”.
It is not yet clear why foreign jihadists are gathering in this region of Afghanistan. It is clear that the winter bases are being arranged, although it is likely that before winter they will not attack the Turkmen territory more than once. In the spring everything will clear up. If they saddle the road between Faryab and Bagdis and simply disturb Turkmen border guards, then their target is TAPI, a blockade of a pipeline or a racket. If they go along the Murghab deep into the territory of Turkmenistan, this is a direct threat to the East-West and Trans-Caspian projects. In this case, the implementation of the TAPI project will also be complicated, since the resource base - Davletabad is cut off from the main route.
Be that as it may, the A76 Andkhoy-Herat highway is brought under control by Islamists in several places: in the east of Faryab and in Bagdis. It is possible that by the spring in the north-west of Afghanistan a new enclave of the IG will be proclaimed. Judging by the mood in Herat, the concern of the local population and the authorities will not manifest itself until the beginning of the siege. The problems of the border areas do not care about them yet. Given the onset of autumnal cold, the official authorities of Afghanistan are unlikely to try to fight off the road to Bagdis and Faryab. At the same time, the IG attempted to gain a foothold in Afghan Kunduz. Before 80, people from this “landing” were killed by local Tajiks.
Whose tube is thicker
The Pipeline War in Central Asia continues - Turkmenistan is a bone of contention between Russia, Iran, China with its Central Asia-China project (CAC), the EU lobbying for the Trans-Caspian gas pipeline with the support of the United States, trying to reduce deliveries to the PRC and reduce to zero re-export of Turkmen gas through Russia, and TAPI. The latter is lobbied by the United States and Qatar and is trying to torpedo Saudi Arabia, which continues to fight this emirate in all areas of its foreign economic and foreign policy activities.
Characteristically, Qatar is attempting to expand its influence in the region, including traditionally closely associated with Iran and Tajikistan. 18 September was visited by a Qatari delegation headed by Sheikh Khalid ibn Soni oli Soni, chairman of the board of directors of the Izdon holding, who, at a meeting with President Emomali Rahmon, proposed cooperation in insurance, healthcare, banking, and active participation in several projects in Tajikistan. Before that, experts considered Kyrgyzstan, where their embassies were opened, as the main base for penetration of Qatar and Saudi Arabia into the region.It is not excluded that Qatar’s sudden interest in Tajikistan is associated with the signing of 2013 in September during the visit of PRC Chairman Xi Jinping to Central Asia with the leadership of Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan on the construction and operation of the CAC gas pipeline. This route with a length of more than a thousand kilometers is one of the main projects of energy cooperation between China and the countries of Central Asia. It will begin in Turkmenistan, pass through the territory of the three countries mentioned and reach China in the city of Ucha in the Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region (XUAR). Construction should be completed in 2016 year, design capacity - 30 billion cubic meters per year.
The amount of investment in the construction of the line D is about 6,7 billion dollars. Upon completion of its construction, the annual volume of gas supplies through the TsAK gas pipeline will increase from 55 to 85 billion cubic meters. The pipeline will be the largest natural gas transportation system in Central Asia.
There is copper - and not to fuck
Note that in addition to pipelines in the region there is another important factor for China - the Aymak deposit, the second largest in the world in copper reserves. It was bought by the PRC, but there is not enough electricity for its development and primary enrichment of ore in the region. The issue with the Pakistani port of Gwadar, through which it was planned to export raw materials and where it was supposed to carry out enrichment to a higher stage, is not completely clear. Natural gas from Iran through the Mir pipe has been brought to the border from the Iranian side, but the Pakistani section of the pipeline has not been built and it is possible that it will not be built for a long time. Prospects for gas supplies through TAPI are also dubious - it was precisely to Gwadar that it was planned to branch off this pipeline.
The exploitation of Afghan lithium deposits, a resource of world importance, whose development is also impossible without infrastructure, has also been frozen. Accordingly, the Chinese factor in the region did not manifest itself, and how the PRC will behave in the event of an aggravation of the situation according to the scenario described above is not entirely clear. In any case, to access the fields, China needs infrastructure and energy. To build it and put energy resources in the region in the current conditions is more than problematic.
Cattle-Border Issue
The Afghan authorities do not control either the Afghan frontier in terms of the drug trade and the penetration of Islamist groups, or the movement of herders in the area between the demarcation line and the control-trace strip (PCB). Overgrazing livestock on the Afghan side of the border, land degradation leading to catastrophic mudflows even with low precipitation, and man-made desertification make Afghan dehkans and shepherds graze livestock in the so-called gray zone, especially since they consider this territory of Turkmenistan to be theirs.
Since Soviet times, between the demarcation line, indicated almost exclusively by pillars, that is, the actual boundary, 744 kilometer in length, to the control-trace strip, the distance is up to 20 – 30 kilometers along the entire border, especially in the mountains, where PCB is not built. This has been and remains a problem. Thus, the Iranians in the Soviet era reached with the grazing of livestock up to Ashgabat. The "gray" zone is controlled by border guards and secrets. By the way, thanks to her, Turkmenistan had the largest protected area in the USSR.
The aggravation of the situation in the Turkmen-Afghan border area posed the problem of its urgent strengthening from the Turkmen side. Afghan Turkmen from the Barakzai clan of the Qaisar etrap in the province of Faryab claim that in the course of carrying out the relevant events, the soldiers of Turkmenistan dived into their territory by five to six kilometers.
Actually, Turkmen border guards did not enter the Afghan territory. But they equipped barrage systems closer to the border demarcation line. At the same time, the ditch is four meters wide and five meters deep, reinforced with metal mesh barriers along which the road is laid, is clearly not designed to protect the border from cattle penetration. Tellingly, the strengthening of the Pakistani-Afghan border began at the same time, where ditches were dug up and barbed wire barriers from Pakistan were installed.
Less islam
In addition to external security, the leadership of Turkmenistan in August conducted a “de-Islamization” of the education system. As part of the implementation of the bilateral agreement “On cooperation in the field of education”, concluded between the governments of Turkmenistan and Turkey dated 15 in August 2014, the Turkmen-Turkish school and the Turkmen-Turkish university were closed. The school was left for the children of employees of Turkish companies operating in Turkmenistan. The university has been transformed, its programs have been revised, and tuition fees have been introduced by significant local standards.
At the same time, the agreement between Turkmenistan and Turkey in the field of education completely excluded any non-state interference. As part of the tightening of the teaching regime, subjects related to the study of religion and prayer hours, which were mandatory breaks between lessons, were excluded. All innovations of Fethullah Gülen are eliminated by mutual consent of the parties. Fortunately, Gülen's “Jemaat” during political reforms in Turkey, which resulted in Recep Tayyip Erdogan becoming president of this country, spoke out against him, playing the role of the “fifth column” in the government, Justice and Development Party, law enforcement and security agencies.
Route intrigue
From the point of view of realizing the potential of Turkmenistan as a reservoir of natural gas of world importance, the main intrigue of 2014 – 2015 will be the preservation (for the PRC, Russia and Iran) or the change (for the European Union and / or Pakistan) of export routes. A special question is the role of Islamist radicals based on the territory of Afghanistan in everything that happens, regardless of whether Qatar or Saudi Arabia supports them and whether the United States is behind this (and for whom).
The influence of the latter in the region is often exaggerated. So, among domestic military experts there is a strong opinion that the United States controls a military airfield in the city of Mary. Local experts say that there are no Americans there. They came there, conducted an examination and appealed to the Turkmen authorities for access to the airfield, but were refused.
In practice, the US logistics base operates at 2002 at the airport in Ashgabat, which is used to transport “non-lethal” cargo for the NATO group in Afghanistan. Military planes are seated there, the cargo is overloaded and then follows to Afghanistan (or was taken out of it as part of the withdrawal of the main American military contingent from that country until the end of 2014 of the year). The airport in Mary is much more convenient from the point of view of logistics, but the leadership of Turkmenistan did not give permission for this - it is possible, based on considerations of prospects for cooperation with Iran and Russia.
For all the independence of Turkmenistan, he has to reconcile his development plans with reality. Requiring neighbors in the Caspian Basin to abandon the principle of collective consent for laying pipelines along the seabed, which is a major obstacle to the export of Turkmen gas to the EU, President Berdymukhammedov may. To force Russia and Iran objecting to this to agree - no. Moreover, Azerbaijan is not ready to provide its gas transportation infrastructure to Ashgabat. It is unlikely that the United States or the Taliban will be able to change this situation.
Information