Georgian special services launched a series of provocations in Abkhazia and South Ossetia. Russian officials have already expressed themselves in the vein that what is happening will not be ignored. At the same time, a new aggravation follows immediately after the events, when large-scale opposition demonstrations took place in Batumi, Tbilisi, and other regions of Georgia, which eventually ended in the dispersal of demonstrators from the square in front of the Georgian parliament.
The former parliamentary speaker Nino Burjanadze described the situation unequivocally - “In fact, a revolution has begun in Georgia.” Although in reality, the revolution that was continuing before our eyes in Georgia began in 2004. Because “the revolution has a beginning, there is no end to the revolution ...” And now the Vice-President of the World Congress of the Nations of Georgia Vladimir Khomeriki makes a sensational statement about the 60 of those killed during the crackdown on the opposition rally in Tbilisi, the Georgian authorities are cracking down on the protesters , and the security services began a full-scale operation to sway the situation in Abkhazia and South Ossetia.
What is the logic of the development of events in the paradigm of the new aggravation, and does it make sense for Russia to somehow intervene in the Georgian situation? Let's try to understand these issues. In any case, what is happening today in this country concerns Russia directly, and if urgent measures are not taken urgently, the situation may spill out of Georgia, shaking the entire region.
It would seem, and here Putin?
It should be understood that the Saakashvili project was originally conceived by the Americans as destabilizing. The main idea is to turn Georgia into a non-healing wound, a malignant tumor, the metastases from which should spread throughout the region. And this is not only the Russian North Caucasus, the destabilization of which is of interest to American strategists in the first place, but also the nearby states of Transcaucasia. Swinging the situation, with a desirable transition to a hot stage, opens, for example, the possibility of reformatting the situation with Karabakh - according to the American scenario, the Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict should be resumed, which should weaken Armenia’s position and provide an opportunity for blackmailing Azerbaijan.
The war in the region is in the nearest US plans. The revitalization is focused on the December elections in Russia, and its meaning in the signal sent by the American elites personally to Vladimir Putin, with whose return they associate the unconditional activation of Russia in the foreign policy arena, and above all in the post-Soviet space. And it will seriously press the Americans in the region. Putin’s return poses a threat to American interests in the Caucasus, in connection with which the scenario of a sort of blackmail is turned on - you give us Putin, we give you destabilization of the Caucasus.
There are plans to gain a foothold in the Transcaucasus, creating a kind of springboard for the offensive, and with the help of launching the latest military technologies implemented in the field of social processes and the theory of controlled chaos, move into the Russian North Caucasus and further into Russia. In this process, Abkhazia and South Ossetia are just the necessary bridgehead in the zone of directly Russian interests. On this subject, Saakashvili had already spilled a word once, saying in an interview with the British newspaper The Independent that “These territories can be useful only if they are used as a springboard for an attack.” Attacks on Russia. And not Saakashvili, of course, will use this bridgehead to invade Russian territory ... His business is to create a string of provocations, implementing the scenario of controlled chaos, with which you can "mix" the established order that does not suit the United States. Therefore, Abkhazia and Ossetia, unfortunately, are waiting for a new war.
It’s no accident that Saakashvili, who has bought himself the opportunity to remain in power in exchange for stepping up anti-Russian provocations, explicitly declares his intention to continue his attempts to return Abkhazia and South Ossetia by military means. On the air of the First Information Caucasian TV channel, Saakashvili, without choosing expressions, called for “all Georgians to celebrate the next new year in Sukhum”. This year for Russia is not just an election year, but the year of Putin’s return, against which all American instruments of influence are mobilized.
The situation is aggravated by the fact that Abkhazia and South Ossetia are now, in contrast to the situation of 2008, recognized by Russia, and there are Russian military bases on their territory. Any aggression against these republics will mark the beginning of a war with Russia. And here Russia cannot but participate, to pretend that nothing is happening, and all this is Georgia’s internal affair - that somehow, before the execution of the Russian peacekeepers, it was possible in August of 2008.
Now, according to the Americans, having recognized Abkhazia and South Ossetia, Russia has driven itself into a dead end, and will have to respond. This is another "reality check" of Russian politics - to find out how much Putin is still "in force", or whether he really, and not only declaratively, lost the levers of influence.
Georgian opposition - who orders, he dances
What is happening today in Georgia once again confirms that the Americans, who control this state, will not hold on to Saakashvili if he stops, or even weakens provocative activity against Russia. Regardless of how pro-American the current Georgian regime is, the United States will easily replace it to achieve even greater destabilization, greater tension in relations with Russia. But, on the other hand, Saakashvili can be abandoned if he again shows zeal and activity in his attacks and intolerance towards Russia. In this case, we are talking, first of all, about the destabilization of the situation on the Russian borders.
It is in this connection that Russia should intervene in the situation, since it is directed against our interests, and the activity of the current Georgian regime threatens the interests of Russia's national security. It is not necessary to do this openly, you can follow the American example and support those forces that are ready to work to stabilize the situation in Georgia. And it does not even have to be strictly pro-Russian forces, they may well be pro-Georgian. The main thing is that they are not pro-American.
Many call precisely Nino Burjanadze the pro-Russian sector of Georgian politics. Others believe that if Burdzhanadze comes to power in Georgia, then for Russia it will be even worse, because Burdzhanadze will pursue the same policy, but she will not be such an odious figure as Saakashvili. The principle here is the one with whose support it will come to power. Burjanadze is a politician and proceeds from the possibilities. Who will support her now, at a difficult time for her, on that she will be guided when she comes to power.
Burdzhanadze held a tough pro-American position, was a collaborator of Saakashvili and one of the main participants of the “rose revolution”. But political differences with Saakashvili pushed her into the opposite camp, and if Russia now supports Burdzhanadze, after her coming to power, she will receive at least a pro-Georgian politician who preserves Georgia’s neutrality and does not rush into the arms of the United States. It is quite possible that she will even feel some sympathy for Russia, will become a moderately pro-Russian politician, which is quite possible, given that she has repeatedly changed her positions. Everything here ultimately depends on the ultimate support - who will play a decisive role in the events unfolding today - Russia or the American side. It is clear that the United States can also support the opposition, bringing it to power instead of Saakashvili. In this case, in the face of Burjanadze, we can actually get even more pro-American leader of Georgia than Saakashvili.
That is why the most desirable option for us would be the inclusion of Russia in this situation, which should support the opposition in its own interests. Then the revolution will happen in favor of Russia. And here a kind of competition arises for supporting the opposition between Russia and the United States, and meetings, like the one that took place on December 21 of the year between Burjanadze and Putin, become the necessary format of interaction, which can be expected from the results. it is Putin who has all the opportunities to commit Burjanadze-policy in favor of Russia.
Revolution - like technology
The popularity of politicians is a new thing. Today, as many believe, Burdzhanadze and Ko are not popular, and tomorrow, with the application of certain technical efforts, they may well become extremely popular. The picture may radically change. We saw what was happening with Yushchenko in Ukraine. Public opinion is changing very quickly, especially in modern conditions.
Any revolution or coup, taking into account such opportunities, is today an instrumental phenomenon. Therefore, under certain conditions, if Russia expresses its intention to support any of the parties in the current situation in Georgia, even those political forces that today position themselves as pro-American may well take the side of Russia. For, as we know, politics is the art of the possible.
Moreover, both Burdzhanadze and Saakashvili are simply a kind of expendable material in the big American game, objects of American strategy. Little depends on them, it’s not they who decide who will remain and who will leave. They may not even be aware of the way in which they are used; this is pure technology with a few interspersions of chance!
When Burjanadze speaks of Saakashvili’s “thoughtless actions”, this is partly political rhetoric. Although she hints at the fact that he crossed the line - when Georgian security forces began to disperse the demonstrators with rubber bullets, gas and water cannons, as a result, according to some information, up to 60 people died - that is, began violence against his own people. And this is always the starting point for regime change. We have just observed similar situations in Tunisia, Egypt and many Arab countries.
Violence in such cases should push the international community to demonize Saakashvili and turn him off from the support system of the West. Many complain that only five hundred opposition people gathered in the square, “less than a basketball game”. But the revolution is either being done or not. And with modern technology, the number of people gathered does not matter. We know that it is enough to provoke the forces of law and order to violent retaliatory actions, it is enough to cause the appearance of at least one or two victims, and this critical mass will grow like a snowball in a matter of hours. And then just that side will be passed, after which the regime begins to be considered illegitimate. The opposition was enough to provoke violence from the authorities, which would lead to the victims. Perhaps they were, but they managed to hide ...
Avoiding calls for provocations, we should not forget that this is how this technology works. Americans often implement similar scenarios and with a much smaller number of people. And here 500 people - quite enough, it is not at all an indicator of insolvency. Under certain conditions, even ten people are enough, five people are provocateurs acting in a certain way in the crowd in order to radically unfold the situation, destabilize it and, as a result, change the political system.
The guard was tired ... from speeches
It is clear that people are tired of the endless series of protests, dispersals, and new speeches of leaders. But the legitimation, support from the population of the current government is melting before our eyes. And the fact that in 2007 a much larger number of participants did not demolish Saakashvili’s regime, suggests that he still possessed some kind of legitimacy. Now it tends to zero. And with current events, Americans remind Saakashvili who is the boss in the house - this is a purely preventive thing, one of the elements of American politics in Georgia. Once they had already tried to replace him in the previous elections, but they did it rather sluggishly, rather warning Saakashvili about the possible consequences.
In any case, the days of Saakashvili are numbered, and therefore he will in every possible way cling to power, suppressing the speeches of the opposition. However, he can still prove his worth to the Americans, but for this he will have to crawl out of his skin - to start another “small victorious war”, to arrange a grand sabotage against Russia, a bacteriological attack on the North Caucasus or something from this series.
And now Saakashvili understands that no one will intercede for him. Americans will not fight for it. He was left alone with the opposition, which today is a destitute, though independent subject. If the United States, which will support the opposition, is now involved in this situation, then it will easily remove Saakashvili. If not, then Saakashvili may succeed in cracking down on the opposition.
Declaring that “the revolution began in Georgia, it will end in our victory, this revolution began Saakashvili with his mindless actions”, Burjanadze wanted to remind that Georgia, despite all the declarations, is a rather authoritarian state with tough special services that sometimes act on the verge of a foul. One can imagine the situation of the Georgian opposition. The current effort to remove Saakashvili is her last chance. If now it will be a false exhaust, and today's opposition activity will not result in the overthrow of Saakashvili, then very tough punitive actions against the opposition will follow.
However, previous attempts to remove Saakashvili were not the last chance, but now a certain line has been passed. Saakashvili also understands the precariousness of his situation. He is no longer satisfied with the United States, is not dynamically pursuing a pro-American line in Georgia, is not tough enough to react to Russia's behavior, does not properly destabilize the situation, which the Americans are demanding from him. Therefore, he does not particularly hope for anyone.
Why does Georgia need the USA?
Georgia is a geopolitical bridgehead, necessary in order to eventually place American military bases there, gain a foothold, and begin expansion into Russia. Namely - to the North Caucasus; - to launch new scenarios aimed at further destabilization, for the subsequent collapse of Russia as an integral geopolitical entity, for division into parts, weakening, depriving sovereignty, etc. That is, this is an obvious military, strategic platform for an offensive. However, if this is so, a natural question arises - why then should the Americans have a new revolution in Georgia? It would seem that they already fully control the country.
Here we need to understand the American logic of thinking: any stabilization of the situation in Georgia freezes, slows down these plans and processes. America does not need stabilization, while the Saakashvili regime settled down and began to equip the country, settle down, "became overgrown with fat." It does not need the United States. A stable, even ultra-pro-American regime, such as, for example, the Mubarak regime in Egypt, or the Ben Ali regime in Tunisia, does not suit the Americans at all.
It implements the theory of controlled chaos, which has specific developers. For example, the author of the concept of controlled chaos, Stephen Mann, who published the same scientific work back in 1996 year. It implements, among other things, the current strategies in the Caucasus - the rejection of territory without the use of conventional weapons. If the regime stagnates, even if it is pro-American at least three times, it needs to be changed, new forces are needed, new people are ready to curry favor with the Americans with trebled strength, proving their loyalty and effectiveness, but also without a guarantee not to be swept away at the first opportunity. Thus, both Burjanadze and Saakashvili work according to the American scenario - i.e. The United States controls both those and others, both the power and the opposition.
Destabilization is carried out to open up more control. But with certain efforts, it can also be a factor in the loss of control over Georgia by the United States. But only under the condition that Russia will join this “chaos”. Turns on as active subject. Only then we have a chance to turn the tide in our favor. And there is a reason for this. For example, the precariousness and weakness of the current Georgian government, which is covered exclusively by populism.
All the actions of the current regime, bringing enormous costs to the people of Georgia, hide behind the usual screen of populism - the Georgian authorities are trumpeting that they have the best police in the region. Indeed, an important element of a police state must be kept in order; it ensures that a handful of American agents are in power.
Cleaned the streets. The facades of houses on the central avenues of Tbilisi are painted. The eye rejoices. But if it were not for this populist facade, what would the authorities still be able to justify for the fact that people have neither wages nor work, and in the country, if not to take into account the police and the army, there is a complete social collapse. Clean streets and facades of houses - this is a flashy moment. It is much easier to clean the facades and wash the streets than to establish a social policy. This is the facade that justifies all the disgrace that has been happening in Georgia all these years under the authority of Saakashvili. And the Americans are satisfied with such a “sham” Georgia.
Why big Russia is small Georgia?
Here are the opposite interests: the current Georgia Saakashvili is a factor of destabilization near the Russian borders. Destabilization of the Russian North Caucasus is growing from Georgia. And one of the main laws of geopolitics is that if you do not carry out the offensive, expansion outside, you can lose what you have. Borders do not tolerate statics, they must move.
Russia is interested in taming the chaos on its borders, in stabilizing the situation in Transcaucasia, where Georgia is today the main destabilizer. Those. Russia is interested in the stabilization of the situation in the Transcaucasus, in Georgia in particular. But the Georgian people are also interested in this. Who wants to live in an unstable society in an era of continuous change?
This, in the end, stabilizes the North Caucasus. We see the active role that Georgia takes in the events in the North Caucasus. The visa-free regime recently introduced by Georgia for residents of the North Caucasus Federal District, actually facilitates the movement of separatists from Georgia to the North Caucasus and back. Another attack is the recognition at the state level of the genocide of Circassians, a small interest group of which starts in the format of the American project "Great Circassia" bloody redrawing the North Caucasus for American needs. Not long ago, the Georgian parliament adopted a document condemning and recognizing the genocide of Circassians in Russia, accusing Russia of this genocide. Why, one wonders, is the Georgian parliament not recognizing the genocide of North American Indians, not condemning it? How then will the United States explain that they have destroyed many peoples on their territory?
The next moment is the harboring of Chechen militants, which we observed during both Chechen campaigns, which took place with the tacit support of the Georgian side - supplies weapons separatists, their financial support, etc. On the territory of Georgia, in the Pankisi Gorge, separatists hid and healed their wounds. Financing, arms and medicine supplies went through Georgia, wounded militants were evacuated and new forces were supplied via Georgia. Georgia is still actively involved in condemning any actions of Russia in the foreign policy arena.
That is, Georgia, at least the current Georgian regime of Saakashvili, rests on antagonism, on confrontation, on the front of Russia on any issues, no matter what Russia says, does, and no matter how it behaves. And Georgia will go to any anti-Russian initiatives, no matter whether they are beneficial to Georgia or not. That is, it is a pure factor of destabilization in the Caucasus. And in whose interests is this being done? In Georgian interests? Yes, in any case! This is done purely in American interests. Of course, the Americans will not explicitly stick this out and declare it openly. However, unstable Georgia is a factor of destabilization for the North Caucasus.
And here, oddly enough, and maybe quite naturally, the Georgians, ordinary residents of Georgia, have nothing to do with it. Georgians are good, peace-loving, friendly people, fraternal people who have lived with Russians side by side for centuries, having common with us history. We are talking exclusively about the political regime, which is purely instrumental in the hands of the United States. Through him, the US is trying to destroy Russia.
Factor of Abkhazia and South Ossetia
The independence of Abkhazia and South Ossetia is a fact recognized by Russia and ensuring the security of the peoples of these two republics. It must be remembered that it was Saakashvili’s regime that put the Ossetians and Abkhazians at risk of ethnocide, making recognition, in fact, the inevitable, the only way for these peoples to survive. You should not be mistaken here - Abkhazia and South Ossetia seceded from Georgia, because, in fact, they underwent ethnocide, i.e. unification of these unique ethnic groups under the uniform standard of the Georgian nation. For ethnocide is the erasure of distinctive differences of some ethnic groups from others, by bringing them to a single standard - this was the essence of the nationalist policy of all Georgian leaders of the post-Soviet era, starting from Gamsakhurdia, and ending with Saakashvili, who brought Georgian nationalism to the limit.
However, if we are going to think about a positive future for the region, then we must recognize that the exclusion of Abkhazia and South Ossetia from Georgia is not a definitively resolved question. We know that within the framework of a single strategic space - the USSR - both Abkhazia and Ossetia were within Georgia, within its administrative borders. But these boundaries were not state, but administrative — that is a big difference. It was the administrative part of Georgia.
It is quite another thing - the nationalization of the Ossetians and Abkhazians under the standard of the Georgian political nation. This question is not closed as long as we have the possibility of a common strategic space with Georgia, the possibility of reviving our common, cultural, historical and political large space. But it is also obvious that, as long as Georgia clashes with Russia, it will have territorial problems. In this format, the question of reunification with Abkhazia and South Ossetia will be completely closed. For such a reunion is possible only with Russia, simultaneously with the restoration of a single large space.
After all, if Abkhazia and South Ossetia are part of Georgia, then the Crimea is part of what? And Ukraine is part of what? There is the concept of a big Russia, which includes all those spaces that today are independent states. The state is a living organism. Borders are movable. There are no fixed boundaries for centuries that would not change. They always move depending on how people perceive reality, history, whom they see as an ally, and whom - as an adversary.
Appeals to the fact that Georgia, they say, lost two of its territories, and with them - two fraternal peoples who lived together throughout the history of Georgia, has its logical continuation: these two peoples are fraternal to Russia. Just like all the peoples of today's Georgia. Throughout its history, over the past centuries, we have lived together.
The political program of both Burjanadze and other opposition politicians contains one common grain - each of them promises that with the coming to power, Abkhazia and South Ossetia will return to the bosom of Georgia. This is possible. When Georgia will return to Russia.
Another round of chaos or the return of Russia?
In Georgia, in general, pro-Russian sentiments are very strong. And if we focus on polls, not those ordered by the Georgian regime, but polls conducted by independent sociological centers, we will receive the necessary justification for Russia's participation in the fate of the peoples living in the country torn by American experiments for the last twenty years. For more than half of the population of Georgia shows sympathy for Russia.
This part of Georgian society also has political forces expressing their interests - pro-Russian parties, movements, public structures and the media, which stand strictly for orientation towards Russia. They just need support most of all, and the effectiveness of their actions at certain investments is much higher than that of the “systemic” oppositionists. However, there is still no need to list them here, given the tough police regime of present-day Georgia.
Georgia is historically a pro-Russian country, although the current rulers have forgotten that if you constantly quarrel with your neighbors, then nothing good will come of it. True, there is America, but it is far. And with the neighbors, as the Georgian tradition says, you need to live together, not swear, do not fight. Twenty years ago, Georgia received its independent state, all roads were open, and what was the result? It should be recalled that in the Soviet period, Georgia was the most prosperous republic of the USSR, the richest and most prosperous. Including in memory of this, Georgia is still very fond of Russians, and has always been loved. But we must live not only with memories, but build a new common future, taking in it all the best.
What is happening today in Georgia is a continuation of that “revolution of roses” that took place several years ago. Its goal was destabilization, and in order to pacify the situation, it takes years. Nobody does this. On the contrary, the situation in every possible way is kindled and swayed, and it is directed against Russia.
In such a situation, it turns out that the current Georgian revolution in favor of the interests of Russia is better than the American controlled chaos. Better stable Georgia is neutral, pro-Georgian, than controlled American chaos with destabilization. Therefore, Russia should actively intervene in what is happening. The situation has now deteriorated as much as possible, it will not be any worse, regardless of whether Russia intervenes or not, but if it intervenes, there is a chance to seize the initiative in order to engage Georgian politicians in a pro-Russian vein.
It is not necessary to do this openly, by the introduction of a contingent, by the demonstration of the open support of certain forces. We are talking about technology, Russia's participation in Georgian processes can be technological, clear, targeted. The end result can radically change the picture of what is happening in present-day Georgia, turning the tide and returning Georgia to a single space with Russia, in which it has always historically been located. When our brotherly nations lived together for many centuries. Or give Georgia at the mercy of the Americans, let a new round of chaos and decay?
In this situation, Russia is left with only one thing - to turn the situation in its favor. And this is possible only in the only way - to start developing a geopolitical counteroffensive in the region, forcing the Americans out of its borders. Here the possibilities are also limited in time. It is impossible to detract, it is necessary to respond now, until Georgia became a member of NATO. A similar opportunity existed in Russia in 2008, when the North Caucasian battalions under the leadership of Kadyrov almost reached Tbilisi, sweeping away the Saakashvili regime and freeing the Georgian people from the American tyrant. However, Medvedev did not have the will to implement this scenario to the end.
Putin has enough of such a will, and his return to the Kremlin may not be quiet and inconspicuous, as some technologists of Yeltsin’s oil spill suggest, but triumphant and victorious. And here we must understand that the scenario of ousting Americans from the region is a scenario of stabilization and salvation from the inevitable chaos and fratricidal war in the Caucasus, which we have prepared for the "reset" lovers.
Option two - either Russia, under the leadership of Putin, frees the Caucasus from American occupation, restoring stability, or the Caucasus is waiting for a bloody American bath, in which Georgia, the madman Saakashvili, is prepared for the role of a detonator. Well, what remains of the detonator after a bomb explosion? Georgia and its people have been foreseen the role of a sacrifice sent to the slaughter in the name of great America. There should be no illusions ...