Military Review

"Enjoy a variety of mistakes in China"

33
"Enjoy a variety of mistakes in China"



“This is the policy of Washington, which has been very successful for a long time. Creation of small conflicts, and then the appearance as a "arbitrator". It all worked while China was weak, ”political analyst Alexei Maslov told VIEW LOOK. Earlier, the United States warned China against using the “Crimean model” in relation to its neighbors.

The Chinese leadership should not doubt the readiness of the United States to defend its Asian allies in case Beijing uses force to resolve territorial disputes, said US Assistant Secretary of State for East Asia and the Pacific Daniel Russell, quoted by the newspaper VIEW, on Friday. After the actions of Russia in Crimea, the American allies in Asia, according to him, are worried that the PRC will use force against them, reports Reuters.

“Pressure should be increased on China in order to demonstrate a commitment to a peaceful way of solving problems,” said Russell, expressing confidence that the US sanctions against Russia will affect those leaders in China who hope to resolve territorial disputes with their neighbors by force.

In turn, Chinese Foreign Minister Hong Lei, in response to the attack, called on Russell not to mix two different questions into one, Reuters reported. “Regardless of whether it is a Ukrainian question or a question of the South China Sea, China has already expressed its position many times. Why do American officials mention these two problems on one note and stubbornly continue to say such things about China? ”The source quoted the source (translation of the newspaper VIEW).

Recall that April 22 Barack Obama intends to go on a tour of East Asia - in Japan, South Korea and the Philippines. In an interview with the VZGLYAD newspaper, Alexey Maslov, head of the department of oriental studies at HSE, did not rule out that Russell’s speech was only one of the elements of creating an informational background for Obama’s visit.

VIEW: Daniel Russell, in passing reminding the senators of the degree of economic interdependence of China and the United States, said that the threat of "economic retaliation" should keep Beijing from using force in territorial disputes with its neighbors. Alexey Alexandrovich, but does this thesis of the Assistant Secretary of State serve just as an argument of the opposite sense? If interdependence is so high, will the United States decide on sanctions at all?

Alexey Maslov: Today we can talk only about one type of sanctions - this is an increase in tariffs and customs payments in order to prevent a number of Chinese goods in the United States. But if we talk about large-scale sanctions that were used against Iran or which threatened to be used against Russia, then the United States is unlikely to decide on this.


Alexey Maslov


Today, the share of US exports from China is about 17%, which is a very large amount, given that the share of exports to Russia is 2%. It would seem that due to this, it is possible to strike at China, depriving a large share of exports. But let me remind you that China has already bought up a number of companies in the US, there was a very close integration, interweaving. Chinese and American firms are investing in each other through exchange of shares. Growing up has gone so far that economic “butting”, which already happens all the time between the USA and China, will lead to nothing.

As a result, the scenario may be the following: either the continuation of the “war of nerves” or, conversely, a tough economic real war. But this is a completely different level of interaction. But the United States is unlikely to take such measures, because for them the damage will be greater than for China.

"Due to some arrogance"

VIEW: Russell threatened to "put additional pressure on China, so that he supposedly showed a commitment to peaceful methods of solving problems." And besides economic, about which you have already said, what political levers of pressure on China did Washington have at all? Or is this performance of Russell intended more for internal use, for senators' ears?

AMA: China constantly emphasizes that reunification, for example, with Taiwan should be peaceful. He permits the use of force only as a last resort, for example, if Taiwan declares independence. In China, the tactics of gradual growth, which does not provide for military action.

What are some ways to put pressure on the United States? This pressure is not direct, but indirect. First, to entice the various supporters of China in Southeast Asia — for example, Myanmar, Malaysia, Indonesia, or the Philippines, such a traditional stronghold of the United States — while China is also fighting for the ASEAN countries.

Secondly, to involve China in a series of constant disputes and splits, for example, the creation of micro-conflicts along the borders of China. In the past few years, conflicts that previously existed in a frozen state have suddenly grown. Conflicts with India, with neighbors in the South China Sea, and so on have resumed. The third part is interaction with the countries of Central Asia — for example, Kazakhstan — where China has very big interests, including energy ones: gas, oil, uranium ore, and so on.

VIEW: But it was clear to an inexperienced observer that around the Senkaku Islands or in Kashmir it was the Chinese who first began the quarrel. They were the first to send their ships to the long-occupied Japanese islands, and in the Himalayas they were the first to send a detachment of soldiers deep into Indian territory. And you say that this is all “the hand of Washington” ...

AM: In my opinion, Chinese diplomacy is not very strong - the Chinese do not have much experience in fine-tuning conflicts. China used to act quite primitive.

Due to this some arrogance, China is missing out on the details that the US already uses again, not primarily. Not the United States created a conflict. But the US uses a variety of errors. What happened around Senkaku? The American press has inflated a serious, simply total conflict, putting pressure on China’s national feelings. China was forced to react - this is a provocation.

VIEW: Was Russell’s performance really related to China’s policy, or was it more for internal use, for senators ’hearing?

AMA: I think that the topic of China in the Senate will now find a new life. It is always in a smoldering state, because for the United States, China is indeed a real threat. Therefore, every self-respecting senator somehow affects this topic.

However, the performance itself is not very professional in terms of real politics. America seeks danger where, in fact, it does not exist. Tactics and the whole traditional political culture of China consist in gradually building up their first cultural and then economic presence on the territory of another country.

VIEW: But Russell recalls the deployment of many Chinese warships in the disputed waters around the Philippines, in the South China Sea. He said that Beijing had taken “frightening steps” ...

AM: Here we must distinguish between fears and reality. Indeed, China has noticeably increased the presence of its navy in the Philippines, but in the same way as in the East China Sea, and, on the other hand, it is even bursting into the Arctic.
But we must understand that China has two methods. The first method is a clear, sometimes even rude pressure on partners, but behind this pressure there are always very subtle negotiations that are conducted at various levels, through various public associations, cross-border associations.

Today, China has covered all of East and Southeast Asia with a number of public and social-governmental organizations through which these negotiations are being conducted. While everyone fears him fleet, the real work is going on at the level of fine-tuning, which China, however, has not always successfully succeeded.

VIEW: How would you generally assess Washington’s position on the Crimea against the background of the fact that Washington has already defended Taiwan 40 for years, supplying the most modern weapon. At the same time, he officially recognizes Taiwan as part of the PRC. Is there a double standard?

AM: In general, American policy in Asia has always been based on double standards. Surprisingly, the US is trying to be a strategic ally of both Japan and Taiwan, and even China. And each pair of these countries conflicts with each other, strictly speaking. These are not even double, but triple standards, but this, strictly speaking, is the policy of Washington, which has been very flexible and successful here for a long time.

Creation of small conflicts, and then the appearance as a "arbitrator". It all worked until the beginning of the 90s, while China was weak. But China began to intercept the initiative as a “judge”, including in conflicts between ASEAN countries, in negotiations on the North Korean issue, in Central Asia. And now the US was afraid that China will start using their model.
Author:
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http://www.vz.ru/world/2014/4/4/680584.html
33 comments
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  1. svp67
    svp67 April 8 2014 19: 20
    +5
    Yes, the United States now needs to be very careful with China, very, very, or else ...
    1. Cetegg
      Cetegg April 8 2014 21: 15
      +1
      Interesting video!)))
    2. maks-101
      maks-101 April 8 2014 21: 30
      0
      Yes, the United States now needs to be very careful with China, very, very, or else ...
      what usa
  2. Sergg
    Sergg April 8 2014 19: 25
    +4
    With the annexation of Crimea to Russia, the world finally became multipolar.
    It goes without saying that China supports Russia, as is its desire for a multipolar world.
    The United States will never be the country with the absolute right to be the first.
    1. Siberian19
      Siberian19 April 8 2014 20: 58
      +5
      CROSS! Alpha will use fentanyl to storm Donetsk Regional State Administration
      Guys who have a connection with the administration, pass them this information.
      Warn the guys in the Donetsk Regional State Administration!
      Alpha will use fentanyl!
      This is a narcotic analgesic that is part of the gas that causes sleep and to whom. Let them prepare gas masks!

      RSA has an underground passage with the SBU! It is from there and through the underpass that you need to wait for an attack today, and not outside! ALL who can pass - pass on to the guys. We use all the ways to communicate and convey this! http://3rm.info/45410-srochno-perepost.html
    2. Sterlya
      Sterlya April 8 2014 21: 43
      +1
      Quote: Sergg
      With the annexation of Crimea to Russia, the world finally became multipolar.
      It goes without saying that China supports Russia, as is its desire for a multipolar world.
      The United States will never be the country with the absolute right to be the first.

      I agree.
      Eventually. The "undemocratic" Russia and China are already saving many countries that are disagreeable to the democrats from "rapid" democratization, as in many well-known cases.
      Why mark "fast". because, nevertheless, I do not exclude individual possible cases when consolidating the efforts of the entire "pseudo-democratic" Kodla
  3. awg75
    awg75 April 8 2014 19: 25
    +4
    I hope Russia and China will sign at the White House in Washington sometime ...
    1. svp67
      svp67 April 8 2014 19: 31
      +6
      Quote: awg75
      I hope Russia and China will sign at the White House in Washington sometime ...
      Listen, if our countries act together, who will need this village ... with its "white hut" ... let it fall apart itself.
      1. I read the news
        I read the news April 8 2014 21: 13
        0
        You can not leave them unpunished. They are already constantly moving away from retaliation.
  4. ya.seliwerstov2013
    ya.seliwerstov2013 April 8 2014 19: 26
    +2
    This is Washington’s policy, which has been very successful for a long time. The creation of minor conflicts, and then the appearance as an “arbitrator”. All this worked while China was weak. ”
    Now China is not weak and Russia is not weak. Those days have passed!
  5. Grbear
    Grbear April 8 2014 19: 26
    +1
    Earlier, the US warned the PRC against using the “Crimean model” in relation to its neighbors.


    I’m worried about the mental abilities of senators. It is not worth confusing soft with warm, although the result is the same - it’s nice. And even more so, try to bite the big toe of your foot.
    1. smile
      smile April 8 2014 20: 07
      +1
      Grbear
      Yes, the senator's phrase: "... to exert additional pressure on China so that it supposedly demonstrates its adherence to peaceful methods of resolving problems" is simply a masterpiece - akin to - to threaten a neighbor's face to fill his face so that he knows, pad ... ah, our peacefulness .... :))))
  6. archi.sailor
    archi.sailor April 8 2014 19: 28
    +4
    Quote: svp67
    Yes, the United States now needs to be very careful with China, very, very, or else ...

    otherwise the Chinese will ask them all their debts in gold. hi
    1. andrewvlg
      andrewvlg April 8 2014 20: 40
      +2
      Quote: archi.sailor
      Quote: svp67
      Yes, the United States now needs to be very careful with China, very, very, or else ...

      otherwise the Chinese will ask them all their debts in gold. hi

      This story about China's supposedly possible demand "to repay debts in gold" has already got me, to put it mildly.
      Here is an example for you: suppose Nikolay Valuev borrowed 10 tugriks from his coach and agreed to repay 000 each month. But suddenly the coach comes to him and says: I really need gold, repay my debt with gold and immediately! And then I will tear you ...
      In the same way, states "borrow" in a certain currency with a certain payment schedule. And to demand gold, platinum, luminium or slaves instead of tugriks for the weak from the strong is not only absurd, but also traumatic.
      Yours faithfully, hi
      1. Alexandr0id
        Alexandr0id April 8 2014 21: 32
        +2
        local ldbbs soldier this can’t be explained, they are sure that we hold the states firmly by the eggs because everyone has dollars at home, and if we all take off at once, then ... wink
        1. andrewvlg
          andrewvlg April 8 2014 21: 51
          0
          Quote: Alexandr0id
          this does not explain

          We are all delusional to the extent of our ignorance. It's just that various manipulators of public consciousness are launching stable expressions that “simply” explain complex phenomena in our life, and, on the contrary, complicate “simple” ones to cosmic proportions. I also fell for this bait more than once, until I noticed a pattern. For example, a person is recruited into a sect and they say - in this single book there are answers to all questions. Or, on the contrary, they explain that it is impossible to put shoes on the table, because "the place of eating is energetically dirty, because there are astral bodies of plants, etc., for 1000 words." Anyone can be fooled, but almost no one is hopeless.
        2. neri73-r
          neri73-r April 8 2014 22: 28
          +1
          No need to juggle if you bluish your currency, nothing will happen, but if Russia (as a state) and China throws off ........, then hello SGA !!! But we ourselves are not profitable, we must do everything slowly, without unnecessary movements!
        3. 11111mail.ru
          11111mail.ru April 9 2014 05: 19
          0
          Quote: Alexandr0id
          everyone has dollars at home

          15 years I do not keep this muck and I do not advise others.
  7. mad
    mad April 8 2014 19: 30
    +1
    The states have finally quarreled with their heads and current reality. It's time to send the Red Cross to Washington, the rest of the Napoleons are waiting for these "exceptional" ones, in chambers with soft walls.
  8. nikcris
    nikcris April 8 2014 19: 34
    +3
    Quote: "Today, the share of American exports from China is about 17%, which is a very large amount, given that the share of exports to Russia is 2%. It would seem that due to this, it would be possible to strike a blow at China, depriving a large share of exports."

    Who was standing on whom? (C) (Preobrazhensky Ave.)
    When will zhurnalyugi write in Russian and begin to distinguish export from import am
    1. Vova
      Vova April 8 2014 20: 19
      +1
      This is a national hobby of the Russian media. With a clever expression on the face, blurt out what God puts on the soul
  9. konvalval
    konvalval April 8 2014 19: 36
    +1
    It didn’t work with Russia, they scare China. And they didn’t think what power
    Russia + China.
    1. 11111mail.ru
      11111mail.ru April 9 2014 05: 22
      0
      Quote: konvalval
      And they didn’t think what power Russia + China was.

      Do not actively hug with the Chinese. They have their own interests, we have our own. Brotherly love and friendship ended in Damansky and Zhalanashkole (this is for those who do not know).
  10. mamont5
    mamont5 April 8 2014 19: 37
    0
    Oh, and the Americans have gone too far. There are already not enough forces on all fronts. Share it.
  11. mountain
    mountain April 8 2014 19: 43
    0
    I don’t understand why Russia is negotiating with the United States on the outskirts. Gently show them their place in the west, there they pray. Till.
  12. Yarik
    Yarik April 8 2014 20: 02
    +1
    nikcris (3) Today, 19:34
    Quote: "Today, the share of American exports from China is about 17%, which is a very large amount, given that the share of exports to Russia is 2%. It would seem that due to this, it would be possible to strike a blow at China, depriving a large share of exports."

    Who was standing on whom? (C) (Preobrazhensky Ave.)
    When will zhurnalyugi write in Russian and begin to distinguish export from import



    Prof. Preobrazhensky gracefully, of course, spoke out. But. Chinese export is denyushka to China. That's what is meant.
    1. Vova
      Vova April 8 2014 20: 18
      0
      This is a national hobby of the Russian media. With clever facial expression blurt out what God puts on the soul
    2. andrewvlg
      andrewvlg April 8 2014 21: 12
      0
      Quote: Yarik
      Prof. Preobrazhensky gracefully, of course, spoke out. But. Chinese export is denyushka to China. That's what is meant.

      I join nicris. The author of the article made a mistake. It is impossible, as he say: American exports from China. You can say: imports from China or Chinese exports to the United States.
      Moreover, it obscures the meaning of the following phrase about 2%.
  13. Sergey S.
    Sergey S. April 8 2014 20: 33
    0
    Quote: GrBear
    Earlier, the US warned the PRC against using the “Crimean model” in relation to its neighbors.


    I’m worried about the mental abilities of senators. It is not worth confusing soft with warm, although the result is the same - it’s nice. And even more so, try to bite the big toe of your foot.


    Full .... c!

    The "Crimean model" has already gone down in history!
    Already Hurray!

    Now it is the turn of the Donetsk precedent and the Odessa algorithm.
  14. sv68
    sv68 April 8 2014 20: 37
    0
    China is becoming an increasingly serious player, just like Russia in the world market, it’s time to wretched the Yankees to understand that it’s impossible to push us, either the Russian bear will tear up or the Chinese dragon will gobble
  15. Viktori1
    Viktori1 April 8 2014 21: 11
    0
    And it's time for us to get rid of the American "toilet paper" and shake out the debts and to pick up the debts for China in gold ... so that Saray Obamych will feel all the delights ... otherwise God's punishment will overtake them in the form of the volcano Yellowstone ... where they will then get ... ...
  16. serega.fedotov
    serega.fedotov April 8 2014 21: 14
    0
    The Chinese are building their policies for decades, and the Americans are all-for-years! And although Yussians sometimes win tactically, China wins strategically!
  17. Pioneer Tanya
    Pioneer Tanya April 8 2014 21: 23
    +2
    It’s at such historical breaks as today, and sobering of the Americans should occur. We need to be consistent and careful. In this sense, learn from China. There is no turning back.
  18. voliador
    voliador April 8 2014 21: 54
    0
    An attempt to get into all the holes will soon turn out for scrappers that they will tear their own points and we or the Chinese will have them here laughing .
  19. cerbuk6155
    cerbuk6155 April 8 2014 22: 26
    0
    Quote: Sergg
    With the annexation of Crimea to Russia, the world finally became multipolar.
    It goes without saying that China supports Russia, as is its desire for a multipolar world.
    The United States will never be the country with the absolute right to be the first.

    Especially if we enter into a MILITARY-ECONOMIC UNION with CHINA. Then the USA will conquer in an irresponsible voice. NATO will tremble with fear. drinks
    1. jktu66
      jktu66 April 8 2014 23: 58
      +1
      Not so simple. China has its own plans for world expansion that are different from Russia's interests. And yet, China often considers manifestations of friendship addressed to it as a manifestation of weakness. Such a mentality ...
      1. 11111mail.ru
        11111mail.ru April 9 2014 05: 24
        0
        Quote: jktu66
        China often considers friendship to be a manifestation of weakness.

        Stopudovo! In the same spirit, he expressed himself in a comment upstream.
  20. siberalt
    siberalt April 8 2014 22: 55
    +1
    The author correctly noted the connection between Crimea and Chinese politics. Crimea unties China's hands. Not that a precedent, but that Russia deeply spat on the opinion of the Washington regional committee. Therefore, in the near - foreseeable future, China may also "dare". For example, grab a couple of three islands off Japan and cut the shelf to them. Naturally, based on historical necessity. Why Japan? Because it is the main ally of the states in this region. And what's interesting is that China won't get anything for it.
    1. studentmati
      studentmati April 8 2014 23: 02
      +1
      Quote: siberalt
      Therefore, in the near - foreseeable future, China may also "dare". For example, grab a couple of three islands off Japan and cut the shelf to them. Naturally, based on historical necessity.


      Good evening, Oleg! The correct policy does its job quietly. The "general public" did not even notice how the Sea of ​​Okhotsk became entirely Russian! drinks Keep it up! drinks More action, less words! drinks
  21. Ermek
    Ermek April 8 2014 23: 26
    +1
    Despite the fact that the PLA is numerous and armed with a bunch of iron, it lacks the spirit of a winner. But, China is the only country that can bury the United States with economic weapons.
  22. jktu66
    jktu66 April 8 2014 23: 52
    0
    Soon the mattresses' brains will begin to smoke, their scripts will no longer roll with Russia, the Chinese will soon become wiser.
  23. VNP1958PVN
    VNP1958PVN April 9 2014 02: 49
    0
    Because Kerry has such a stone face so that he doesn’t laugh when he lies! And he lies all the time!
  24. A1L9E4K9S
    A1L9E4K9S April 9 2014 03: 41
    0
    Recently, the US has too often started to have problems. Where something went wrong, Iran and North Korea do not want to listen to the "fatherly" advice, Syria is fighting off the hands, China is turning up its nose, narrow-eyed people also want to have their own opinion. so she decided to leave the family altogether, giving up her parental money, you see, she wanted to live on her own, and in addition, China is persuading the parent to kick it together. Yes, the house, home is shaking, nature is throwing a punk with its volcano. bags, vogzal leaves, or there will still be oh, oh, oh.