Israel vs Iran
According to a report by the American Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), this will lead to a fierce war in stories of humanity, in which about 20 of millions of Iranians will die, and Israel will lose about 800 of thousands of people killed.
Main reasons
- One of the main reasons were religious contradictions. Although relatively recently (by historical standards), before the Islamic Revolution in Iran, in 1978, the Jewish community in Iran numbered about 80 thousand people. The seizure of power by the Shiite clergy led to a rupture of relations with Israel, Israel became the enemy. The Jews emigrated, the number of their community fell to 30 thousand people.
Although religious leaders of Iran and said that they are enemies of Zionism and its tool - Israel, and not against the Jews and Judaism. 11 synagogues still function in the country, Jewish schools with the capital 3, one representative from the Jewish community in parliament, Jews are allowed to observe their traditions in their homes.
- Active anti-Israeli policy of Iran, support of militarized parties (finance, weapon) - the enemies of Israel, Hamas in Palestine, Hezbollah in Lebanon. Tehran explicitly identifies Zionism and Nazism, speaks about the cooperation of the functionaries of the Third Reich and the Zionist circles, speaks about the falsity of the “Holocaust” doctrine (the figures of the Jews killed were greatly overestimated, to which the Nazis selectively destroyed the assimilated East European Jews). In 2005, M. Ahmadinejad said, speaking at a youth conference in the capital of Iran: “Israel should be erased from the world map. Our teacher Imam Khomeini told us about this. The formation of the State of Israel was an act of international aggression against Islam. "
- The atomic program of Iran, which in Tel Aviv is considered a direct threat to Israel’s national security. The Israeli political and military elite believe that only the presence of nuclear weapons from Israel gives it security guarantees in a completely aggressive external environment.
- We should not forget such factors as the plan of the Zionists - “Great Israel”, this is a great power with the borders of the times of the Solomon kingdom: from the Mediterranean Sea to Mesopotamia and from the Red Sea to the Euphrates. Under this plan, the states of Jordan, Syria, Saudi Arabia and Iraq will be eliminated, and their territories will be included in the "Great Israel". Apparently, most of the Arab population will be expelled and exterminated, as during the years of occupation of the modern territories of Palestine and Israel. In the conditions of the development of the Arab unrest, the scenario of the implementation of this plan is also possible. And Iran is the main opponent of such a scenario, the Arab countries have little effective armies (some can also be dismembered by internal discord). The main enemy that can challenge Israel is Iran.
Doctrine: “strike first”
As is well known, the Israeli military and security services do not expect a strike and are trying to preempt the enemy, to strike first. What is a fairly correct strategy is the one who struck first, has a lot of advantages. Tel Aviv destroyed an atomic facility in Iraq, according to some sources in Syria.
There is a desire to strike first and Iran, not giving him the opportunity to complete the nuclear program, given the presence of a fairly advanced rocket (so Shahab-3, with a range of about 1300 km, are already able to hit Israel) it will become dangerous. In addition, Iran is increasing its defensive potential every year, that is, the theoretical losses of the aggressor, in a possible conflict, are constantly increasing. It is more profitable for Israel to strike first. Tehran may well possess other weapons of mass destruction - chemical and biological.
Scenario of war
Israel can, with the help of the Air Force, deliver a sudden strike and destroy important strategic facilities of Iran (Iran’s air defense is still in a rather undeveloped state). In the worst case scenario, a strike can also be inflicted by nuclear warheads. Israel will bring down the vast majority of Iran’s missiles, its retaliatory strike, the damage will be minimal. It is easy to track that Israel is actively developing in the field of air defense systems for short-range, medium and long-range.
In the forecast of the Center for Strategic and International Studies, Syria, with which Iran is in friendly relations, may come to the aid of Iran. Syrian armed forces are capable of striking Israel with chemical and biological warheads. With a retaliatory strike, nuclear, Israel will destroy up to 18 millions of Syrians.
In fact, it will be a victory, but at the cost of millions of Iranians and Arabs. But for the Zionists, they are not people, but “subhuman animals.”
Iran
The fact that Tehran will be the first to start a war is very doubtful, this will lead to war with the United States and a number of NATO countries, Iran is not ready for this.
But, in Tehran they understand that the threat is great and they are hastily preparing, underground bunkers are being built, new types of weapons are being developed, old ones are being modernized. Much attention is paid to improving the air defense system, the development of anti-ship missiles, ballistic missiles.
Tehran has created a unique space program, in an almost complete blockade. The Iranian satellite was put into low orbit, that is, in principle, the issue of creating an intercontinental rocket has been resolved. Created a technological chain for the production of satellites and launch vehicles. It should be noted that Russia helped Iran - the first satellite was built by order in the Russian Federation and launched from Plesetsk (October 28 2005). Iran developed the second satellite together with China and Thailand, it was launched with the help of the Chinese Long March 2C launch vehicle in September 2008. At the same time, Iran developed its own rockets and satellites. 4 February 2008, Tehran successfully launched 250 km to altitude and then parachuted a block with instruments using an 2-speed Kavoshgar-1 rocket (Researcher-1) with a liquid-propellant rocket engine. This rocket was created on the basis of a military rocket with a range of 2000 miles and it consists of the first 2-x of the 3-x stages of the orbital carrier rocket Safir (Shahab-4), which is capable of putting a payload of 150 kg into orbit .
The Iranian authorities were able to create two cosmodromes - Imamshahr and Qom. Tehran has the ability to produce missiles and satellites on its territory and it is natural to deliver nuclear weapons to the territory of such an enemy as Israel.
The German newspaper "Bild" gave the data of the closed reports of the German intelligence service BND (Federal Intelligence Service of Germany), which says that the DPRK has sold delivery units to Iran that allow a nuclear strike on Israel.
In this case, Israel’s losses will increase dramatically, but it will still win, according to CSIS, in less than a month's 1. The reason is simple, Tehran has not yet managed to create an adequate supply of nuclear charges and carriers, besides their charge is no more than 100 kilotons. Israel, on the other hand, has approximately 220 nuclear weapons and 60 carriers. In addition, these charges need to be delivered.
Is creating nuclear weapons by Iran a danger to the world?
Most likely not, despite the rather unrestrained rhetoric, the Iranian elite can negotiate. This is a typical eastern country, you can agree. For Iran, nuclear weapons, as well as for North Korea, are a deterrent factor for the United States, for Tehran and Israel, a guarantee of security.
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