The past 2013 has become the year of the end of the “false spring”, which began around 2009. All processes and phenomena that are positive for the physical economy of the United States have been skillfully cultivated or, alternatively, concocted in a hurry during 2013 have exhausted themselves. The first and possibly the greatest loss for the White House administration was the complete exhaustion of the stimulating effect of the programs of “quantitative easing of monetary policy.” Further printing of trillions of green pieces of paper is fraught with a breakthrough in hyperinflation on consumer markets. On the other hand, this breakthrough is inevitable and is only a matter of time. After the breakthrough of the ice of Niagara Falls inevitably followed by flooding. Taking into account that the charismatic and iconic figures of A. Greenspan and B. Bernanke are replaced by the unknown “muddy 67 summer aunt” Janet Yellen, then the case clearly smells like a switchman. This suspicion reinforces the fact that in 2013 the US Federal Reserve has become the main buyer of the White House’s debt obligations.
“What is the result? During the past fiscal year (2012 / 2013), the federal budget deficit, according to preliminary estimates, amounted to 680 billion dollars. For the first time in the last five years, the budget deficit was significantly reduced: it was below the trillion dollar threshold. We assume that "non-market “borrowing in the past fiscal year accounted for 25% coverage of the budget deficit. Then we’ll get that with the help of treasury bills approximately 500 billions of dollars in the growth of public debt for the past financial year were covered. For the same past year, according to the third program of the COP, 45 billion dollars X 12 = 540 billion dollars were purchased. In fact, as the Fed’s statistics show, the Treasury buyout from the Federal Reserve during the past fiscal year was lower than planned and was on average 40 billions of dollars a month.
It turns out that almost the entire increase in US public debt in the past fiscal year was “closed” by the third program of the COP, that is, the “printing press” of the Fed. ”Such a rampage of unlimited joy cannot last forever. The “quantitative easing” policy has crossed its point of no return. The water was over and kerosene was let into the fire hydrants. This is the unequivocal end of Reaganomics. All mechanisms of credit and emission pumping demand in the dollar zone are exhausted. Then everything is like in the song - “We know that there are only two ways: Ja Rastafar or War.”
The second most unpleasant event for the USA for 2013 was the loss of the role of the world's largest economy. If in January 2013 only the Bloomberg agency issued a mouse squeak about the loss of the US position of the largest trading power, then at the end of 2013 this news bypassed all the news feeds.
“The turnover of China’s foreign trade increased by 7,6% last year. The trade surplus was 259,75 billion dollars. Exports rose by 7,9% - to 2,21 trillion dollars, imports - by 7,3%, to 1,95 trillion dollars.
The total US trade turnover for 11 last month was 3,53 trillion dollars. Data for the whole year, the US Department of Commerce has not yet published, but for December, the figure will have to double the data for the same month 2012 of the year to regain the lead. ”With the frankly strange“ services ”out of turnover, the United States will look sad. No “knowledge economy” has taken place. Dream ship crashed on life. A Chinese man collecting iPhones is much more useful than an American playing on the stock exchange's totalizator. Patience and a little effort. Against this background, the idea that with a smaller population and a smaller turnover, the US economy can remain the world's largest net ufology. On the similarity of the one that exude HSE and NES. For the first time, the United States receives such a sensitive blow to its “image” of the navel of the earth. From here it is understandable and completely hysterical statement of the Nobel Peace Prize laureate, the hope of all democratic humanity, the first black president of the free world Barack Obama about the American “exclusivity”. Previously, only Europe was turning to fascism in times of crisis. Apparently the European "values" really walk the planet.
The third negative trend in 2013 was the passing of the peak of return from the shale revolution. The prices for shale gas having touched the bottom have switched to a monotonous increase. Despite the official ban on the export of crude oil from the United States and the de facto ban on the export of natural gas, all the positive effects of the Dick Cheney law package (removing hydraulic fracturing from the water resources protection law), the first successful IPO of shale companies and total government spending subsoil intelligence exhausted itself. The most successful deposits have already been shared, the money from the IPO has been eaten, all the equipment stored in the warehouses has already been put into action. Ahead are only environmental problems and the rapidly falling returns of shale wells.
“Natural gas prices in the United States at 2013 fluctuate at $ 4 per million British Thermal Units (BTU). Shell predicts that the long-term cost of natural gas in the United States will range from $ 4 to $ 6 per million BTU *.
Taking into account the cost of importing LNG, American gas will flow to Europe at $ 8-10 prices, which is comparable to European gas prices, which have remained at $ 8-11 in the past few years. ”
In general, the export of LNG from the USA to Europe is absolutely fantastic. Possible only in an exceptional situation of a complete failure of the White House program on the re-industrialization of the economy. Since only extremely low domestic prices for electricity and gas can act as a driving force for this program. The resource growth rate of consumer activity of the population through the credit increase in demand (and the load on one consumer) was expended in the Cold War. Resource removal of energy-intensive industries in the third world countries and China spent more under Nixon for the same purposes. The resource for integrating China into the technological zone of the USA is spent on 1980, 1990 and 2000. The Fed is an actual bankrupt. The truth was another resource, but more on that later. The second obstacle to the export of natural gas from the United States is its low EROEI (Energy Return On Energy Invested). Return Ratio. In shale gas, it is the lowest of all industrially significant forms of energy. Moreover, it is at the level below which the degradation of infrastructure is inevitable. In shale gas, EROEI is somewhere in the 5 area, possibly 10, and in conventional natural gas, around 25. At the same time shale gas is much lower in quality. It gives less energy per unit volume. There are many impurities in it, which are very expensive to clean. It is even unprofitable to pump it into trunk pipelines. The shale gas market is local consumers. To liquefy shale gas for export is pure madness. This means that despite all the successes of the shale revolution, only natural gas from conventional fields can be exported. What is pure madness, since ordinary natural gas has a much greater EROEI. If you start exporting it, it will inevitably reduce the overall US EROEI. Energy efficiency of the economy. The action is absolutely impossible without the beginning of the processes of internal decay. From this, it is clear why the Japanese Prime Minister, who asked the USA for LNG (liquefied natural gas), was sent in a rough form, and energy exports from the USA to Europe are limited exclusively to natural coal. This trend will inevitably continue in 2014g.
The fifth negative trend was formed precisely in 2013. This event was laid down a very long time ago. At the time of signing the CNB-1 agreement, but like the famous ring of omnipotence, it was waiting in the wings. Like any event embedded in another historical reality, it is completely outside the political will and managerial capabilities of the modern US leadership. As the saying goes, the US economy made a very bad sound in its very depths.
“The USEC Inc. energy company, which produces uranium, plans to file for bankruptcy at the beginning of 2014. This is stated in the message of the enterprise, published December 16. In the United States, USEC runs the only uranium enrichment plant. ”
If this event happened, it would be possible to panic and make management decisions in the spirit of Adolf Aloizovich, but it was not just one. In December, 2013 ended the HEU-LEU program. Agreement on the supply of weapons-grade uranium to the USSR in the form of depleted (diluted to 5%) uranium to US nuclear power plants. In total, this program included the supply of 500 tons of weapons-grade uranium in 20 years from 1993 to 2013. Despite all the US diplomatic efforts, this program has not been extended. To V.V. Putin can of course be treated differently, but he definitely worked out his free lunches in the Kremlin canteen. The process of plundering the economic heritage of the USSR ended. In general, the HEU-LEU program provided approximately 50% of the needs of 104 American reactors, which in turn provided approximately 20% of the US-generated electricity. From this it follows that Russia provided 10% of US energy consumption for almost 20 years on a gratuitous basis. Or two full years.
Any parasitism inevitably leads to the degradation of the parasite. Be it the Caucasus subsidized by 90% or those sitting on the Soviet uranium needle of the USA. In wildlife, only in parasites does evolution reverse. They are always simpler than their original forms. So the United States so far they intravenously consumed Soviet weapons Uranium The only uranium enrichment plant did not fit into the market. And the true problem is not even that. Yes, it wasn’t a wrong decision in the distant 1940s when the United States made a bid for the gas diffusion technology of uranium enrichment, which is very expensive from the point of view of EROEI, and did not turn back from this path. Not that the USSR in the 1970s allowed the United States (at the peak of the oil crisis) not to build new enrichment plants, stopping the growth in the number of warheads and not even in the quiet degradation of American enrichment facilities in the 1990s and 2000s. The problem is much deeper. Today, the United States is faced with the issue of making a breakthrough similar to what the USSR did in the 1950s and 1960s, bypassing the United States several times in terms of the capacity of enrichment plants and by an order of magnitude of EROEI uranium enrichment process. The task of designing and creating fast neutron reactors similar to the Soviet-Russian BN-600 and BN-800 is superimposed on this. This is unavoidable because natural uranium with high EROEI mining is running out.
Only this is not all. Soviet weapons-grade uranium turned out to be pure poison for the US physical economy. Like heroin for a drug addict. Soviet weapons-grade uranium was developed in the Soviet technological zone. In those days when the world was divided into two systems of division of labor (in fact, the term system of unification of labor is much more accurate). Soviet miners took uranium from the ground, carried Soviet trolleys, Soviet trucks and Soviet railway cars on Soviet rails. Enriched this uranium on the Soviet centrifuges that spin the Soviet hydroelectric power plants. The share of energy consumption for this uranium in the technological zone of the USA (and global today) is close to absolute zero. Due to this, the Soviet weapons-grade uranium supplied by 20 to American nuclear power plants for years has not been physically achievable in the modern economy EROEI. Neither now nor in the foreseeable future. It was a direct delivery of heroin to pleasure centers. And it is over.
Uranium supplied under the HEU-LEU program is approximately 10% of all US electricity and the source of transcendental EROEI for the entire physical economy. Since this program is over, a negative shift EROEI for the US economy is provided. If we put on this the strange ideas of exporting ordinary natural gas and domestic consumption of shale gas (with an extremely low EROEI), then a blow to the physical economy can be critical. The main dove of peace called the Pentagon is already preparing to sit in the nest.
“The reduction in the US defense budget forced us to almost halve the number of flight hours, many pilots fly only 120 hours per year (an hour costs on average 20 thousand dollars), according to January aereo.jor.br 9.”
The sixth problem arises from the fifth and from the theory of technological zones of Oleg Grigoriev. In 2013, the legacy of the Soviet technological zone was finally eaten. Moreover, it was eaten not by the United States, but by the entire technological zone led by the United States. China has nowhere else to take for nothing priceless drawings and technologies for the development of fighter aircraft and aircraft carriers. The former USSR turned into a technological desert. In Russia, the volume of rail traffic and the amount of electricity consumed by 2013g fell (although this is largely due to abnormally warm winters). Ukraine physical bankrupt without 15 billion Russian loan. In the former CMEA countries, the industry is simply annihilated. It was preserved only in the Czech Republic due to the physical inclusion in the German one. In the Polish shipyards that gave birth to “Solidarity” and Lech Walesa, the field rolls are walking. For the first time in 2014, the world's only technological zone is waiting for adult life. USSR inheritance eaten.
The seventh negative trend in the US economy stems from the economic course of the White House administration, the peak of oil production, taking into account EROEI, the drop in EROEI oil in most fields and the structure of the US oil flow. Obviously, from the point of view of EROEI, the oil sands of Canada and the heavy oil of Venezuela are far from flowing gold from Texas. Oil with EROEI ~ 50 of the Cold War era is now a pipe dream. The Orinoco heavy oil tanker contains less energy than a light oil tanker. To process heavy oil into gasoline and diesel you need to expend more energy. Including in the form of equipment. What you need to spend or oil or electricity. In any case, this means that the tanker brought less gasoline, which can pour a simple Bill into its gas tank, and therefore more tankers are needed, more terminals, more refineries ...
The obvious way out is the massive construction of oil refineries in oil-producing countries and their export of petroleum products. This trend is already evident. For example, in Russia there is a massive construction and re-equipment of oil refineries, and in the coming years, problems with internal overproduction of petroleum products are expected. At the same time, the government pursues a policy of promoting the export of petroleum products. Similar processes are underway in most oil-producing countries except those to which they have recently exported democracy.
Only this does not solve the problems of the United States with a sharp drop in EROEI. Since the new equipment for the refinery of Qatar and Saudi Arabia must be produced in the same technological zone. For example, oil refining equipment must be manufactured in the USA and delivered to Saudi Arabia. In terms of the entire process area, this can generally degrade the EROEI. There is only one way out for the United States: squeeze out energy suppliers to another technological zone and consume energy that has been cleansed of energy. Thereby increasing internal EROEI in its technological area. What puts the USA in front of the need to destroy a single global technological zone. This process has already begun. Exports of crude oil are banned from the United States and liquefied gas exports are prohibited de facto. Exporting enriched uranium from the United States is simply unthinkable.
A very successful technology and information company with shale gas (and oil) pushed domestic production in the United States. At least allowed to avoid a strong fall. Better gas with ERORI 5 than half the country without work. That part of the adventure where the money from the IPO of the “slate revolutionaries” was infused into the cost of gas produced is so simply ingenious. Only this pie has been eaten and obviously this is not enough for a powerful re-industrialization program. We need new, more radical moves. Especially against the background of a general decline in EROEI of the US economy as a result of an increase in the share of shale gas and the termination of the HEU-LEU program. If we reject absolutely fantastic scenarios or outright nonsense in the spirit of the preachers of HSE and NES, then the United States needs a powerful breakthrough in the field of uranium enrichment technologies on centrifuges and the construction of fast neutron breeders. I wonder whether the United States is capable of such a jerk? With the current leadership, this is almost unbelievable. So we are waiting for the inevitable collapse of a single global technological zone. Neither the bitcoins nor the gold yuan will stop this and life will not return to the frozen workshops of Ford’s factories in Detroit.