Military Review

Prospects for the development of the situation in Afghanistan after 2014

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Prospects for the development of the situation in Afghanistan after 2014



The East is preparing for the fact that in 2014, the withdrawal of NATO troops from Afghanistan will be completed, and therefore the influence of the United States in the region will sharply weaken. Of course, the US military will remain in the country, but now they will not go into the heat of battle, just by instructing the armed forces of Afghanistan. One can imagine how the Afghan soldiers will act after the US foreign detachments leave the country, and the threat to get a bullet in the head for going over to the side of jihadists or local militia will disappear. And although drones will still hover in the sky over the Hindu Kush mountains, the whole Afghan land will be in the hands of the opposing factions.

Real and contrived opposition

The leading role in the Afghan opposition still belongs to the Taliban. This movement uniquely combines the features of Islamic fundamentalism and secular European nationalism, which is generally not typical of radical Sunni fundamentalists. Using his authority, the Taliban can strengthen in many parts of Afghanistan, including the capital. The first task of the Taliban will be the centralization of power and the destruction of competitors - supporters of global jihad, who have “traveled” to Afghanistan from the Middle East, the Caucasus and Central Asia. It is unlikely that after 2014, the Taliban will be interested in expanding into neighboring states. Any border incidents will only be related to tactical maneuvers and smuggling.

In turn, the militants who have “poured” in Afghanistan will work in every possible way for the money paid by the sponsors — Saudi Arabia and the Gulf monarchies. It is possible that after the 2014 of the year, the United States will resume funding for the militants, as it was before the 1989 of the year. Then the country will be re-pumped to the eyeballs. weapons in order to become a source of instability for China, Iran and Pakistan. Russia, which is interested in regaining its lost positions in Central Asia, will face a powerful challenge in the form of global jihad. The tasks of militants funded from abroad are exporting jihad to neighboring countries and joining Afghanistan to the Caliphate. And although the latter goal is unattainable, Islamic fundamentalists will still become a headache not only for the neighbors of Afghanistan, but also for the Taliban.

In addition to the Taliban and cosmopolitan jihadists, there is no other real opposition in Afghanistan. The ideas of the secular Kabul intelligentsia are not popular among the people, and the internal opposition to Hamid Karzai, like the current president himself, exists solely at the expense of the United States.

What will be the next stage of the war?

If the Taliban gain power after NATO’s withdrawal, they will have to look for patrons in order to resist the jihadists. Militant rhetoric will need to change in favor of the neighbors. Thus, there is a chance that the Taliban will become ready for a compromise with the Eastern world, but not at all the Western: obviously, the United States and its allies were defeated, and the winner always dictates his rules to the loser.

However, external support to the Taliban will be needed only if jihadists create a serious threat to this movement. In addition to the Islamists, local tribal, confessional or territorial militias and alliances will join the fight against the Taliban. Some of them, perhaps, will support the new government, provided that they receive preferences. The rest of the Taliban will have to destroy or push outside the state. Here the most interesting begins: where will the jihadists and members of the militia go?

With great probability, many losers will go to Afghanistan, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan in order to regroup and launch an offensive with new forces. A network of training camps and military bases are needed along the perimeter of the borders of Afghanistan, which are necessary for jihadists to train neophytes.

Part of the militants, funded by the United States and the Sunni monarchies, can break into Iranian territory for sabotage, another part of the losers will try to join forces with the opposition in the Central Asian republics. Some adventurers, once in Afghanistan or Tajikistan, may even instigate full-fledged civil wars in these countries in order to create their own emirate.

Thus, as soon as the Americans leave Afghanistan, hands will be untied from a huge mass of people who know nothing but military art. The militants will no longer need to fight with an external opponent, and they will send weapons against each other. The ranks of the warring factions are quickly replenished with deserters from the police and armed forces, so Hamid Karzai will lose all support at all. The coming of the Taliban to power will then be considered as a stabilizing factor. On the other hand, the losing groups in the hope of escape from persecution will cross the border and settle in neighboring countries with Afghanistan.

Weighted Policy

Major Asian players are taking action to stop a potential threat from Afghan jihadists. The most active are Russia, India and China, and each of these states uses its own methods. For example, Russia does not interact with Kabul directly, but conducts a dialogue with key countries of Central Asia through the SCO and CSTO — the format of both these organizations is excellent for a multilateral discussion of the Afghan problem.

China combines opposition to Islamic militants with efforts to expand the Middle Kingdom in the western direction, to the Caspian Sea. If the PRC is doing something that could help the Central Asian republics, then in return it will necessarily require the granting of any privileges. In turn, India is acting thinner, and is engaged in training Afghan officers. Even if these soldiers join the fundamentalists in the future, the memory of India as a friendly country will remain with them. Do not forget that the enemies of Delhi are not all Muslims, but only Pakistan. In contrast to its alliance with China, India could enlist the support of Afghanistan, even if the Taliban be in power there.

Iran, meanwhile, continues to strengthen its eastern border. In addition to Afghan jihadists, Tehran should also be wary of Baloch nationalists, as well as simply organized crime of all stripes. But the Iranian commandos have a wealth of experience in dealing with the militants, so that Iran will be able to keep the situation under its control in the coming years, if, of course, nothing unexpected happens.

Pakistan and Tajikistan will have the hardest time, where civil wars may break out at any time. If these countries fail to find reliable allies in a timely manner, they will face a sad fate. Moreover, it is possible that the Taliban will try to come to a compromise with the governments of Pakistan and Tajikistan in order that they, too, begin a struggle against jihadists who are ready to settle in their territories. The Taliban, ready for dialogue, this time engaged in solving the internal problems of Afghanistan, is one of the best options for Russia, since we will have several years to better prepare for the invasion of Sunni fundamentalists from the south. And it will happen: there are all signs that secular regimes in many Central Asian republics will be overthrown by the so-called “Arab Spring” pattern, and destructive processes will be launched in Central Asia at the suggestion of Western countries. The wave of violence can come to the Volga region - the central regions of Russia. Therefore, we need to urgently increase our military and even economic presence in the Central Asian republics: it is better to defeat the enemy on foreign territory than on our own.
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  1. Guun
    Guun 12 December 2013 08: 24
    +5
    In general, I agree with the article. The right things are written.
    1. Civil
      Civil 12 December 2013 09: 52
      +5
      Again, you will have to maintain the next "Northern Alliance" as a buffer, fight with someone else's hands, pay for security, or it is stupid to make genocide by means of total cutting.
      By the way, after the release of the United States, you can flood poppy plantation with herbicides.
      1. knn54
        knn54 12 December 2013 17: 51
        +3
        - Civilian: again you will have to maintain the next Northern Alliance as a buffer, fight with someone else's hands, pay for security ...
        This is the BEST option to avoid your own presence. Regular occupation units are futile for suppressing "partisan movements".
        As follows from the Pentagon report, only one of the 23 brigades of the Afghan army is combat-ready.
        The West is simply not interested in a strong Afghan army, and it Practically hinders the strengthening of the Afghan army, which is experiencing a catastrophic shortage of heavy equipment and the almost complete absence of aviation, without which military operations in the mountains are extremely difficult (there are about 50 operating ships, mainly transport helicopters). At the same time, the NATO forces leaving the country are destroying their military equipment (including several hundred armored vehicles with protection against mines and shelling, each worth a million dollars) due to the high cost of transporting the equipment back to the United States and “the Afghans will not be able to use military equipment properly ". What then did their western instructors teach ???
        Another proof that the West does not need a strong Afghan army is the practice of creating local militias. The so-called self-defense units today operate in most provinces of Afghanistan. They turned into a personal guard of local rulers. Clashes between the army and similar paramilitaries occur more and more often. Moreover, the American command sided with the militias, after which Hamid Karzai demanded that Washington withdraw its coalition forces from two troubled regions ahead of schedule.
        The Yankees need chaos and instability, giving an occasion to maintain their military and economic presence and at the same time prevent the presence of other forces here like the Russian Federation, China or Iran. And blackmail intractable Pakistan, build up influence in the post-Soviet republics of Central Asia, and support Uyghurs.
        PS Afghans themselves emphasize that the problem of their country is disunity, therefore there is no stability. I think that the country's autonomy can partially solve the problem. And only a leader like Gaddafi can save / consolidate the country. Even from among the moderate Taliban.
      2. alone
        alone 12 December 2013 19: 21
        +1
        The "Northern Alliance" is Karzai's regime. If the Americans leave and leave him alone, then I think that Russia will have to help this alliance. Otherwise, Karzai will appear in America faster than the Americans. And the return of the Taliban means a war in Central Asia, those. in Tajikistan. The Tajik border is the only convenient place for a breakthrough, there are mountains, there is where to break through, where it will catch on. Taliban specialists in mountain warfare and a breakthrough in the flat areas is excluded.
  2. makarov
    makarov 12 December 2013 08: 33
    +3
    This kind of "vinaigrette" turns out, cannot be compared with "noble Olivier", and the official Tajikistan twists its tail, faithfully looking into the eyes, and hiding its thoughts deep in the ass. Situevina is VERY difficult ...
  3. svskor80
    svskor80 12 December 2013 08: 35
    +2
    Major Asian players are taking action to stop the potential threat posed by Afghan jihadists.

    I can’t even imagine what needs to be done so that peace and order came to Afghanistan, and its neighbors did not expect the invasion of gangs or bales of heroin. Afghanistan completely falls under the "nightmare without end" rule. And so it will be until the country itself outgrows feudalism and savagery.
    1. ZU-23
      ZU-23 12 December 2013 09: 04
      +7
      So this is a country of drug addicts and terrorists. For those Americans, their hand wouldn’t flinch to burn Afghanistan with their children, but on the contrary they guard and propagate it to destabilize the entire region, including the post-Soviet space.
      1. typhoon7
        typhoon7 13 December 2013 00: 16
        +2
        I completely agree with you, from there they will conduct subversive activities in northern China, Central Asia and southern Russia, and their base will most likely not be very weak. I think they will still drink blood.
    2. The comment was deleted.
    3. sanych your division
      sanych your division 13 December 2013 01: 30
      0
      Imagine nuclear weapons strikes. Sorry for the rabid humanism but it will really be very quiet and calm
  4. Keeper
    Keeper 12 December 2013 08: 54
    +4
    the concept of "Americans will leave Afghanistan" is very difficult and not entirely consistent with the realities of life!
    As they were, there will be poppy farms that will not only be controlled by the Americans, but also protected!
    It is not profitable for America to keep the whole country in fear, so they will take for themselves the sweetest pieces of land, cordon off and fortify ... and in another garden - let the "wild" grow ...

    It is necessary to strengthen the borders with Tajikistan (or to set up posts on the border of Afghanistan with Tajiks. Again - it’s a pity for our men!) So that drug trafficking does not creep into Russia ...
  5. Chicot 1
    Chicot 1 12 December 2013 09: 03
    +2
    Prospects are not very good, however, looming ... And the fact that after the American leaves the Taliban will take power in Afghanistan is as clear as God's day ... But they are active guys and most likely will try to move north again. Their most probable goal is Tajikistan ... It is possible that they will undertake to help their fellow Uighurs in China ...
    But who wants to be friends with the new Taliban regime, I can hardly imagine ... Perhaps Pakistan. But at the same time, it is possible (!) That his "druh" - "great" China, will be sawing his brain because it is friends with those who help the internal enemies of the Celestial Empire ... The Taliban's relations with Iran are quite likely ... Well, and of course Messrs. Saudis and Qatar. But quietly and unofficially, so as not to irritate the extra "civilized world" (Europe) and the "lamp of democracy" (USA) ...
    But the union of the Taliban with India is not drawn in any way. If only because Afghanistan is traditionally considered the patrimony of Pakistan. At least he thinks so, and this means that official Islamabad will make every effort to maintain and consolidate its influence in Afghanistan. So Delhi in this case most likely does not shine ...
    1. PSih2097
      PSih2097 12 December 2013 13: 14
      +2
      Quote: Chicot 1
      And the fact that after the American withdrawal, the Taliban will take power in Afghanistan as clearly as God's day ... But they are active guys and most likely will try again to move north.

      they won’t climb north, they have a country near them, called Pakistan (moreover, it’s part of the nuclear club), there they will figure it out and only then options are possible, and we take into account that the Taliban of the last century and the present are very big differences ... .
      1. Chicot 1
        Chicot 1 12 December 2013 14: 02
        +3
        Quote: PSih2097
        they will not climb north

        Climb. After the seizure of power in Afghanistan (and Karzai will be devoured by the departure of the American), they will need to expand their sphere of influence. And the easiest (and most logical) way to do it is in Tajikistan ...
        Quote: PSih2097
        they have a country nearby, called Pakistan

        In general, they appeared in Pakistan as such, and only then moved to Afghanistan ... So Pakistan "is not near their side," but under them. Even if only partially ...
        Quote: PSih2097
        Taliban of the last century and present - a very big difference

        Not so much time has passed since 2003 (by the way, already this century!), So that a big cardinal and fundamental difference is drawn. Moreover, the sponsors of the Taliban are unlikely to have changed or changed their attitude towards foreign policy ...

        And the mentality of the Taliban has not changed. As they were religious fanatics, so they remained.
  6. lakec
    lakec 12 December 2013 18: 44
    -3
    Ah Afghans, Afghans why are you shedding each other’s blood? You need to go to the Caucasus and Russia to the North, to fight with Tagut
    1. gold
      gold 12 December 2013 20: 04
      +1
      No, dear lakec, let them have their own order, they are fighting with tagut, we don’t need blood, not ours, not theirs ... I think faith by word and example is fastened and not by machine gun and terror ...
    2. EdwardTich68
      EdwardTich68 12 December 2013 20: 24
      0
      The time is not right, their time has passed.
    3. Alex_Popovson
      Alex_Popovson 12 December 2013 22: 40
      +1
      Lakets, and in Central Asia there are also enough Munafiks and polytheists. And then in China ... That would help like-minded Muslim Uighurs. And in India, then! There, some pagans roam, they are not frightened, let them fall to them!
  7. EdwardTich68
    EdwardTich68 12 December 2013 20: 02
    +2
    Most likely the situation will be similar to the first period of the rule of the Taliban. Control of drug weapons, reduction of crops. External expansion may decrease significantly.
  8. Black
    Black 12 December 2013 20: 13
    0
    Iran, meanwhile, continues to strengthen its eastern border.
    Well, who do not mind !! In 79-89, the USSR crushed and built. I didn’t like it. Both the supply of weapons and the training of militants by Iran will still fall back on the Persians.
  9. propolsky
    propolsky 12 December 2013 23: 59
    +1
    It is possible that after 2014, the United States will resume funding for militants, as it was before 1989.

    Here you have no doubt!