Military Review

The division of the Strategic Missile Forces, re-armed to the Yars and Topol-M missile systems, successfully passed the final test

18
The division of the Strategic Missile Forces, re-armed to the Yars and Topol-M missile systems, successfully passed the final test“NVO” has repeatedly addressed the situation in Central Asia, in particular, in the articles “Commonwealth against rivalry” (18.12.09), “USC Center against Central Asia” (22.10.10), “A holy place is never empty” (23.11.12), "Finding meaning for the SCO" (27.09.13). They state an extremely difficult situation in the region, and the further it goes, the more difficult it becomes. This is influenced by a number of factors.


First, the United States and NATO are leaving Afghanistan next year (maybe some contingent will remain there, but it will not be able to fundamentally influence the situation), which dramatically increases the likelihood of complete destabilization of this already unstable country.

Secondly, China’s expansion into the region (for the time being economic) is accelerating, primarily due to Russia's position.
Thirdly, within the region itself there are strong contradictions between and within countries.

WASHINGTON PRAGMATISM AND MOSCOW STRASHERS

For several years, Moscow was very worried about the presence of Western troops in Afghanistan, seeing in it the “encirclement of Russia”. Only when two years ago, NATO announced the withdrawal date from the Hindu Kush, did the Kremlin realize that it was necessary not to worry about staying, but about leaving. And it would be better if the "circle of Russia" would have been in Afghanistan for a longer time. But they will not be promoted, adding to the long list of unlucky explorers of this peculiar country.

At the same time, the Kremlin did not understand one more thing - that by its endless demonization of the United States and NATO, by constant tales of their enormous military power and aggressive intentions, Moscow inflicts quite concrete damage to itself. Because in these tales they continue to believe in almost the entire post-Soviet space. Only conclusions do not at all those that Moscow needs. Many post-Soviet regimes still believe that if you bend back to Washington well, it will give them money and protect them from external enemies. In particular, leaders of almost all Central Asian countries think so, seeing in the US a force that can balance the influence of Russia and China. They do not understand that if the Americans leave a small contingent in the region, it will only become a problem for Washington itself, because due to geographical remoteness from the US and, most importantly, due to the lack of open communications with the US, it will become a hostage of the surrounding countries, turn of the same Russia and China.

In addition, no one has learned the lessons of the August 2008 war of the year and of the sad fate of Georgia. This is someone who really sagged before Washington and Brussels, but at the critical moment did not receive the slightest help from them. Moreover, the USA (nothing to say about Europe) will never shed a single drop of American blood for the sake of saving any of the Central Asian regimes from internal and external opponents (here the fate of the faithful US ally Hosni Mubarak, who did not lift a finger) could serve as a lesson . Accordingly, relying on Washington, the countries of the region do not increase, but lower their own security, because they replace it with illusions. But in order to realize all this, one must see the facts, and not listen to propaganda, and this is by no means all of them succeed.

In the meantime, the leaders of the countries of Central Asia continue to flirt with Washington. In particular, they are hoping for the "distribution of elephants", that is, the military property of the western grouping in Afghanistan. Indeed, the property of this is so much that a significant part of it is cheaper to quit than to export. True, this is not about military equipment, but about a variety of equipment. At best, about armored vehicles built according to the MRAP scheme (that is, with enhanced mine protection). NATO countries (primarily the United States and the United Kingdom) slapped several thousand of these vehicles, which, in essence, are not combat vehicles, but vehicles. That is why now they are simply not needed. You can distribute them to Afghanistan and neighboring countries, but only the combat power of the latter will not increase.

China we ourselves allowed into Central Asia for the sake of the great idea of ​​deterring the United States. The Chinese are happy to push the Americans out of the region, and at the same time us. They just buy the region in all ways wholesale and retail. Unfortunately, it does not seem possible to reverse the process, since the financial and economic opportunities of Moscow and Beijing are incomparable. Americans will not be able to call for help either, because they have neither the resources to contain Beijing, nor the desire to at least help Moscow in any way.

Beijing is very fond of demagogic arguments about the fight against "terrorism, separatism and extremism." At the same time, in reality, he is not going to restrain the Taliban. He will agree perfectly with them through his main strategic ally, Islamabad, who in reality controls the Afghan Taliban. And Moscow itself hardly dreams of Chinese military aid in Central Asia. After all, the appearance of Chinese troops in this region will mean that Russia has lost here the last levers of influence.

UZBEK KNOT

But our security system in the region is far from perfect. Of the five Central Asian countries, three are members of the CSTO, two are not included, but everything inside the CSTO is very uneven.

The point of view is quite common that the key element of the security system in Central Asia is Uzbekistan, so its last year’s withdrawal from the CSTO is an extremely regrettable event. Uzbekistan borders with all the other four countries in the region, as well as with Afghanistan. Its population is almost equal to the population of the rest of Central Asia combined, and the sun is also very large.

However, one can say much more about this country. For example, the fact that it has a strict totalitarian regime, and the standard of living of the population is extremely low. President Islam Karimov has repeatedly demonstrated that he is not going to be a member of any alliances where Russia is the leader. Tashkent is in extremely tense relations with all the other countries of Central Asia. The armed forces of the country are formally large, but their combat effectiveness is dubious, and the equipment gradually falls into disrepair, since it was entirely inherited from the Soviet army and has not been updated since. The country has no own military-industrial complex, the Tashkent aircraft factory was successfully destroyed by its own leadership, its remains were evacuated to Ulyanovsk. The Fergana Valley, which is one of the most densely populated regions of the world, is a real “powder keg” of Central Asia, since there is very high unemployment, a very low standard of living and the Islamists are rapidly growing stronger. At the same time, it borders simultaneously with Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan.

Accordingly, talking about the need for a union of Moscow and Tashkent is somewhat strange. At least, because Tashkent does not want this. A true union is possible only with the consent of all parties to it. Uzbekistan has already been a member of the CSTO. And inside this organization I didn’t do anything except direct sabotage of all its decisions and events. Accordingly, his departure was not a disaster, but a boon to the organization. In addition, if we achieve an alliance with Tashkent, then on whose side should Moscow be in the event of a likely conflict between Uzbekistan and Tajikistan or Kyrgyzstan? Finally, in the case of the Islamic uprising in the Fergana Valley, we are ready to send the Airborne Forces there, knowing that the coffins will probably go to Russia in the hundreds, and most likely thousands, in order to save comrade Karimov. And no one will even thank us for this, they will only shoot in the back and curse both imperialists and occupiers.

CONSENT IS A PRODUCT OF NON-RESISTANCE OF THE PARTIES

For other reasons, it does not seem possible union of Russia with Turkmenistan. This country lives in its own world and is not going to leave it. While the Taliban were in power in Afghanistan at the end of the 90s, Ashgabat got along very well with them. To participate in any collective security systems, Turkmenistan is not going to, it is her right. We cannot force the union by force to either Tashkent or Ashkhabad. Which is good, since the imposed union is not as such and, with a probability close to 100%, leads to betrayal by the forced “ally”. At the same time, it should be noted that recently, Turkmenistan has begun, albeit in small quantities, to acquire modern weapon (Tanks T-90S, MLRS "Smerch", missile boats of project 12418). This weapon will not be directed against the Taliban, but against Uzbekistan on land, against Azerbaijan at sea and against Iran in both environments. Nevertheless, the fact of military-technical cooperation in itself will certainly contribute to a certain rapprochement between Moscow and Ashgabat. But, of course, it will not reach any alliance, and there should be no illusions here.

There are problems within the CSTO, and Russia is largely to blame for them herself. Moscow cannot overcome the loss of the USSR complex and the US phobia complex. Because of this, two poor, failed states (Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan), whose security depends on the Russian military bases in these countries for 100%, are regularly blackmailed by these bases. This is completely absurd and outrageous. It is doubly absurd and outrageous that Moscow regularly gives in to this blackmail and makes various concessions to Dushanbe and Bishkek. Although it would be possible to explain once only to these small but proud countries that we can easily withdraw our troops from their territories and give Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan their own destiny (which they actually deserve). But, alas, Moscow has complexes: Soviet and American.

In recent years, Moscow has managed to reach the optimal variant of post-Soviet integration - CU / CES - Eurasian Union. It is in its construction that one should invest maximum efforts, while being aware that the admission of any new country into it will bring only harm, and substantial harm. Attempting to attach unnecessary additional elements to an unfinished structure can simply bring it down. The creation of the Eurasian Union should be the biggest success of Russian foreign policy, and its collapse due to hasty expansion will be the biggest failure.

Moreover, a military alliance must also be built in the same threefold version. Moreover, it has already formed de facto inside the CSTO: only Moscow, Minsk and Astana make a real contribution to the collective forces. In particular, in Central Asia, it is necessary to focus on the closest possible alliance with Kazakhstan, without straining about the rest. This does not mean that we should exclude Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan from the CSTO, but they need to be made clear that they must behave appropriately and understand who needs what to whom.
But, alas, we have complexes.
Author:
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http://nvo.ng.ru/
18 comments
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  1. Lech from our city
    Lech from our city 12 October 2013 07: 35
    +3
    KHRAMCHIKHIN again - he seems to have a grudge against Chinese competitors not without reason.
    However, in any case, CHINA is not worth discounting the potential danger of CHINA.
    1. tronin.maxim
      tronin.maxim 12 October 2013 07: 40
      +7
      Quote: Lech from our city
      However, in any case, CHINA is not worth discounting the potential danger of CHINA.

      China knows very well that Russia cannot be conquered by war, but economic, cultural, emigration is what it is. Slowly but surely.
      1. a52333
        a52333 12 October 2013 08: 40
        +3
        Yes, China was given to you. At the moment, more attention should be paid to our sworn "friends". Look at the "fire belt" - this area fits perfectly here for ALL indicators. Fashington, in order to complete his "masterpiece" - was only Iran. See how the puzzle is put together.
        Central Asian countries - everything is clear here - a ready-made powder keg. I think in a year, when they leave Afghanistan, they will "work" in several places at once. From the south, the Taliban, Fergana. The last puzzle is not clear yet. How, or rather, who will fight with whom against Iran: apparently, the states themselves will not climb. This honorable mission will be entrusted to Israel + Saud. So far it seems so. And these "freaks" will calmly transfer "attention" to the Pacific region. The Russian Federation will extinguish the fire in Central Asia (and most likely not only there) and we will have nothing to do.
        1. Very old
          Very old 12 October 2013 16: 34
          +1
          Add Turkey here, where recently they tried to arrange a "spring". But somehow it did not work out. No wonder Erdogan on Izr. snapped
          1. a52333
            a52333 12 October 2013 19: 28
            +1
            It’s not clear to me there, Valentine. Clear. that the states have warned. But why? For Syria? so he seemed to run ahead of the smoke of the locomotive. I do not yet understand the vision of Turkey's future through the eyes of the United States. There are few external manifestations. One "yellow card" so far.
        2. timer
          timer 12 October 2013 23: 46
          +3
          Yes, he did. I’ll say that China is still interesting to us with it (maybe Damanskaya is still remembered). There are no friends in politics, there are interests. And to be honest, selling new weapons to the Chinese is short-sighted, only getting momentary benefits. We empty Far East and Primorye. The Chinese like cockroaches and without war actively assimilate it, and our leadership doesn’t blow it! There will be tension with China, then think for yourself.
          With regards to the Taliban, if Pakistan controls them, then you need to pay attention to his rival India. By maintaining the tension of India with Pakistan, we will not allow one to rise and strengthen with the other (while supporting the entire ICP with orders like from India and attract Pakistan). draw conclusions.
          Thirdly, the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) - I believe that Kazakhstan should be used more actively as a good tool for pursuing Russia's interests in Central Asia. On the one hand, it is imperative to prevent the influence of the United States and China’s penetration, and on the other, actively promote its counter-economic expansion (buy up liquid assets and lend to their economies under the zakpki Russian equipment. etc.). By the way, this will help us to squeeze out migrants from Russia (VPK and the economy is politics).
      2. ed65b
        ed65b 12 October 2013 10: 46
        0
        Quote: tronin.maxim
        Quote: Lech from our city
        However, in any case, CHINA is not worth discounting the potential danger of CHINA.

        China knows very well that Russia cannot be conquered by war, but economic, cultural, emigration is what it is. Slowly but surely.

        Culturally very doubtful, Chinese culture is incompatible with Russian for several reasons, one of them has a different mentality.
      3. S_mirnov
        S_mirnov 12 October 2013 23: 24
        +1
        Quote: tronin.maxim
        China knows very well that Russia cannot be conquered by war,

        Why is that? Reliable Soviet missiles and nuclear weapons have an expiration date! Produced in Russia flies 50 to 50, maybe to China, or maybe to Kaliningrad (remember the last missile launches and satellite launches). China has already surpassed us in the army, it almost does not depend on the opinion of the USA. pursues its national policy. Industry overtook us. What is one reason why China will not be able to conquer us in the Non-Nuclear War? In my opinion they are only held back by the fact that the Soviet nuclear weapons have not yet been too rusty and nothing else ...
    2. Very old
      Very old 12 October 2013 16: 31
      0
      Lyokha, these are the Chinese. 2 write, but keep in mind.
  2. borisjdin1957
    borisjdin1957 12 October 2013 08: 11
    +1
    from the Don.
    Throughout the post-Soviet space, all the tops think only about power and money. And nowhere, nowhere about people. Hence the deflection in front of the West, the USA! There is no grass after us! There is no master, there is no certainty in the continuity of power! Temporary workers are everywhere! China, with KPK, more disciplined and without complexes. And I'm not sure about the survivability of the TS, the CSTO. When the power changes in any of the countries, this can all fall apart, because it rests on Russia! While holding on!
  3. major071
    major071 12 October 2013 08: 22
    10
    Central Asia is turning into potential Afghanistan as a whole, with the exception of Kazakhstan. The picture is the same everywhere - the poor agricultural countries, a huge number of children who will soon grow up, but there is no work, there is no industry, but there is power that does nothing, but only parasitizes. But there are preachers promoting aggressive Islam. This is a powder keg. When the Americans leave Afghanistan, it will explode almost with a guarantee, having captured Afghanistan, the Taliban will try to break through the border and enter Central Asia. Pakistan is behind all this - it's his interests. And Pakistan has a billionth China, with a population larger than Russia, with nuclear weapons. The border with Kazakhstan is almost not guarded, and Bashkortostan and Tatarstan are nearby.
    Something a grim picture turned out, but it’s still worth considering. IMHO.
    1. ed65b
      ed65b 12 October 2013 10: 47
      +2
      In vain, Kazakhs were deleted from this list, horses are still those. will be sold as soon as possible.
    2. Pilat2009
      Pilat2009 12 October 2013 11: 42
      0
      Quote: major071
      And Pakistan has a billionth China, with a population larger than Russia, with nuclear weapons.

      You somehow forgot that Pakistan also has nuclear weapons and if the Taliban win there, it will be very difficult to put out
  4. AVV
    AVV 12 October 2013 08: 31
    +4
    Why does the title of the article not match the content? Or is it just me ???
    1. IRBIS
      IRBIS 12 October 2013 12: 56
      +3
      Quote: AVV
      Why does the title of the article not match the content? Or is it just me ???

      I also did not see anything about the Strategic Missile Forces division. One of us has glitches ...
  5. Vitaly Anisimov
    Vitaly Anisimov 12 October 2013 10: 00
    0
    Central Asian leaders continue to flirt with Washington.
    Hussein Kadaffi also flirted (both ours and yours) everyone is now observing the result (countries as independent and independent no longer exist .. the war explosions are looting ..)
  6. ed65b
    ed65b 12 October 2013 10: 50
    +1
    It is time for Russia to shut itself off from the world with a new iron curtain until it settles down. think about yourself and only about yourself tries all around.
  7. Pilat2009
    Pilat2009 12 October 2013 11: 45
    0
    I just did not understand how the title of the article
    "The Strategic Missile Forces Division, rearmed with Yars and Topol-M missile systems, has successfully passed the final check."
    consistent with its essence?
    1. major071
      major071 12 October 2013 14: 29
      +4
      The essence of the article is not in the title, but in its content. hi
  8. dimon-media
    dimon-media 12 October 2013 19: 22
    +2
    The author distorts a lot of facts. Enraged and proving something and someone there is not the slightest desire. There are two aggressors in the world: - Japan (with its mania to grab more land from any other country) and the USA (which have not spent a year in history without wars, which they themselves unleashed most of all taken together, and also the first in the world to use nuclear weapons against another country twice). so there is nothing to demonize China.
    1. mikkado31
      mikkado31 12 October 2013 22: 10
      +1
      The Americans did not take anything from Russia (they sold Alaska themselves). But the Chinese took the islands on the Amur. In addition, there is evidence that a transfer of a plot of Russian territory near Lake Hassan to China is being prepared (for access to the Sea of ​​Japan)

      There were at least two major border conflicts with the Chinese over the territories (Damansky and Zhalanashkol)

      While you are all trying to fight with America on equal terms, the billionth dragon awakens under your belly ...
      1. a52333
        a52333 12 October 2013 22: 57
        +1
        China is a fundamentally different power. Throughout its history, it has not shown aggression. China was attacked by all and sundry. We saved them a couple of times from Japan. We have no territorial claims. So, do not "shaggy butterfly".
        1. Sirocco
          Sirocco 13 October 2013 08: 26
          +2
          Quote: a52333
          . We have no territorial claims.

          You are right, we don’t, but China has it, that’s confirmation to that, that is, a map from Chinese schools.
          Quote: a52333
          . Throughout its history, has not shown aggression

          And here, I disagree with you, remember the events of 1969 Damansky. So with all the "partners", it is necessary, as in business, to keep an eye out, otherwise there will be an attempt to "screw up the butterfly."
          1. a52333
            a52333 13 October 2013 09: 10
            +1
            Oh. Every state has dreams. You look at the Lithuanian cards and the Turkish. The Mongols, if they had a printing house and paper, would also be printed. Tamansky is essentially the only moment when they succumbed to provocation. Peaceful and hardworking people. And the ways of attacking them are (by the way effective) creeping expansion. Even if they are conquered, the method of struggle (patented lol ) do not resist. Through generations - - clap. And all the conquerors got around. They have the enemy No. 1 Japan.
  9. 1c-inform-city
    1c-inform-city 13 October 2013 11: 44
    +1
    It is not clear where does the Strategic Missile Forces division.
  10. Ivanovich47
    Ivanovich47 13 October 2013 19: 01
    +1
    The article is like a wicked tale for young children. With the advent of NATO in Afghanistan, drug trafficking has grown awesome and matured. This is a direct legacy of thoughtless American politics in Afghanistan. What has NATO achieved in this country? In short Yes, nothing! And there is nothing to frighten Russia with Taliban horror stories. The Taliban are the same people. For them, the main thing is to remove enemies from their land. And in the Central Asian republics, people who love power are sitting at the leadership. So there is no need to be frightened!