Russian values are overproductive
The obvious failure in Russia of the neoliberal project, launched a quarter of a century ago, and the equally obvious inability of the country to move away from raw material dependence and launch a new industrialization - these two fundamental facts require us to answer essentially the unpleasant question: are we capable of worthy economic participation in the world? of life?
Our geo-economic and economic defeat has long received a conceptual and doctrinal rationale, essentially a sentence, in the statement of the head of the Higher School of Economics Yevgeny Yasin, who postulated that "traditional Russian values are attractive in many respects, but generally low-productive."
We argue that Russian values are not just productive, but overproductive, which, contrary to climatic and geopolitical negative conditions, has been repeatedly proved by our people.
And in the next twenty years, Russia has all the opportunities to demonstrate this by creating a new planetary center of industrialization and social wealth production in Western Siberia, linking two oceans across the continent - the Arctic and the Indian to a new macro region, defining the Russian perspective for the 21st century.
Western Siberia - the driver of Eurasian and world economic development
The crisis of governance in Russia is associated with the inability to determine the centers of conservation and accelerated growth of the core of the Russian-Russian civilization in the 21st century. Instead, the state is driven by private gain and acts chaotically - an example is the country's suicidal decision to expand the hypermegapolis of Moscow in a hypercentralized country.
But the future centers are not in the extreme West of the country, not in St. Petersburg or Sochi, but beyond the Urals.
In the next half a century, the Russian Far East, our geopolitical region No. XXUMX and Western Siberia, will necessarily become the centers of Russian development.
The Far East is called upon to be an outpost of Russian development, the geo-cultural center of Russia and a new large country in the post-Soviet space, and Western Siberia, first of all, the South of Western Siberia, the leading geoeconomic region, the center of generation of social wealth on a global scale.
It is in the South of Western Siberia in the coming 20 years, approximately to 2035, that all the necessary conditions are available for launching around the fundamental technologies of advanced tertiary industrialization - organizing new industrialization not only in Russia, but also in the world.
Then we will justify this statement, but after 25 years of intensive deindustrialization, you should be aware that the new industrialization in the country will have to be organized from scratch, from a clean slate, and realism here is determined by the state’s ability to concentrate enormous resources on the breakthrough bridgehead have a political will.
Here we need "people of long will" and extremely pragmatic - but passionarity, because our ability to organize
new industrialization is in fact the ability to ethnogenesis, as the reproduction of a thousand-year stories.
A stake in the South of Western Siberia will allow building the future of this territory as a world economic center, rather than choosing the fate of a low-loaded “bridge” or Anglo-Saxon “democracy” linking the “Northern Ring” between the Europe and the Asia-Pacific region.
Why the South of Western Siberia?
The south of Western Siberia has three unique features.
The first. The volume and combination of natural resources that can create an optimal resource base of new industrialization:
Firstly, geothermal waters of the apt-alb-Cenomanian complex, which is concentrated between the Ob and Yenisei rivers, are practically inexhaustible in reserves at depths from 1 000 to 3 200 meters. The total volume of hot water with a temperature of 70 - 90 ° of this unparalleled underground sea with an area of 3 million m² is estimated at 6 - 8 million cubic meters. kilometers Being second in importance to the region’s wealth after oil and gas, apt-alb-Cenomanian waters allow, in balance with the usual types of energy resources, to carry out an energy revolution, as well as their industrial use for the production of iodine and heavy salt solutions of unique chemical elements.
Secondly, the world's largest iron ore deposit is the West-Siberian iron-ore basin with total reserves of 393 billion tons of ore or 118 billion tons of iron, of which only the Bakcharskoye deposit near Tomsk is explored and prepared for production.
Thirdly, huge reserves of oil and gas - only in the Tomsk region gas reserves amount to 632 billion cubic meters. meters
Fourth, large reserves of hard coal, including coking grades, lignite (balance reserves of the Kansk-Achinsk basin are estimated at 112,4 billion tons, geological - 414,2 million tons), peat, wood, not counting other types of minerals and resources of the adjacent areas of the Urals, Altai, Kazakhstan, Eastern Siberia.
Fifth, the natural resources of Central Asia, which will necessarily become a customer for a new secondary industrialization.
The second. A unique geographical position - both in the middle between Europe and China, and in the center of the most promising economic region of the world between the Arctic and Indian oceans.
The south of Western Siberia is located at the intersection of water and railways, when waterways connect our new central region with the Northern Sea Route, the ports of the Barents Sea, and railways - with the European part of Russia, the Far East, and Central Asian countries. In addition, the connection of the Ob and Yenisei canals makes it possible to use the industrial power of this region for the development of vast and undeveloped territories of Eastern Siberia: the Lower Angara region, Evenkia and western Yakutia.
The third and main feature is people.
Unique available frames. Also, in the future, the created conditions and infrastructures will attract here an extra million selected high-class specialists and that talented young people who in a short time, with proper organization, will become the best personnel in the world.
The ten-million population is exactly like Belarus, an ample demographic “mass” for the organization of new tertiary industrialization.
The region today has all the necessary conditions for the creation of a powerful new industrial area, the creation of large engineering industries of various kinds, ranging from heavy engineering (production of mining equipment, industrial equipment, machine tools, various kinds of automatic equipment, shipbuilding) and defense industry to complex and precise engineering, based on the world's largest research centers: Novosibirsk, Tomsk, Krasnoyarsk.
The raw material base for the engineering industry is created by geothermal energy, as well as by the existing heat generating facilities and power facilities included in the plants (for example, in the Chulym plant), the prospects for the development of nuclear energy in Seversk and Zheleznogorsk, large-scale processing of iron ore and smelting high-quality steel, processing oil, gas, brown and hard coal to obtain a wide range of chemical products, polymers and plastics. There are also good prospects for the development of chemical processing of peat, for obtaining a whole spectrum of non-ferrous and rare-earth metals (in particular, provided with raw materials from the fields in the Lower Angara region), the glass industry, the production of cement and building materials (both from natural raw materials and from waste , sludge from Achinsk Alumina Refinery).
Thus, the district is provided with practically everything necessary for creating a full-scale machine-building production independent of raw materials.
The conditions and resources of the south of Western Siberia are outstanding in all respects. However, they still need to be able to use. If we do not do it ourselves and do not create a planetary center of new industrialization, then Siberia in the next few years will finally be given to transnational corporations for a predatory trophy ravage.
New Middle East
Western Siberia has a special opportunity to begin the formation of a promising macro-region - the New Middle East or Middle Eurasia, including the classical Middle East (Iran, Afghanistan, Iraq and Pakistan), Central Asia and Western Siberia itself.
With the right strategy of Russia in the new macro-region before 2025, a common market will be formed in almost 400 million people.
Siberia’s unique role is in organizing a planetary center for tertiary industrialization, which not only launches this type of industrialization for Russia, but also organizes accelerated primary industrialization of Afghanistan and secondary industrialization of the former Soviet Central Asia and Iran and Pakistan, which will create a priority market for Russian industrial products and advanced technology.
It should be noted, an important role in the organization of the New Middle East near Astrakhan, as the key to the Caspian development and the supporting territory of the western circuit and the delineation of the new macro-region and the common market.
The very geography of the South of Western Siberia literally forces to create here the center of formation of the New Middle East and immediately begin the strategic planning of the macro-region connecting the two oceans, the warm and the cold "seas".
Tertiary industrialization versus screwdriver industrialization
New industrialization is an imperative not only of Russia, but of all mankind, both the most underdeveloped countries of the third and fourth world, and the world economic leader of the United States, whose national debt in 17 trillion. dollars exceeded their GDP. Last year’s appeal by Barack Obama to the industrialists to return the outward production back to America is more than indicative.
At the same time, for Russia, the reduction of new industrialization to semi-colonial dependent “screwdriver” industrialization, which occurs today at all levels of management, when the centers of strategic planning and creation of advanced pioneer technologies are outside Russia, and individual production “pieces” and “chipping” are pumped into our country »Alien technological and industrial complexes.
The mission of the South of Western Siberia to prevent this substitution and create in Russia the leading planetary center of industrialization and the production of social wealth through the organization of tertiary industrialization based on the breakthrough to the seventh technological structure.
The organization of a planetary center for avant-garde tertiary industrialization makes it possible in the future to organize a kind of cascade of industrializations: from the tertiary to the primary.
The basis of the tertiary industrialization will be robotization as a mass creation of automatic plants, advanced mechanical engineering and the design of regional infrastructures of the third generation, primarily transport systems, and multi-infrastructures.
Also, it should not be overlooked that the creation of a new industrialization planetary center in the region is the only realistic way of grinding and eliminating the Afghan planetary center for drug production, which kills at least 100 thousands of people every year, of whom at least 50 thousands of young people in Russia.
The alternative to such project realism is the actual impotence of the world community over the planetary problem of Afghan drug production, disguised by sophisticated and sophisticated rhetoric.
The planetary center for drug production, based on a deformed type of economy and social base, can be eliminated and replaced exclusively with the same scale, that is, the planetary center of new industrialization, capable of realizing accelerated primary industrialization in present-day Afghanistan.
Despite the fact that the elimination of this center continues to be the absolute imperative of mankind, except Russia, which is the first victim of Afghan heroin, no one will carry out full-scale industrialization in Afghanistan - and this is impossible without the creation of a global industrialization center in the South of Western Siberia.
Transport and logistics infrastructure platform
To mobilize and intensify geocultural and socio-economic processes in the south of Western Siberia, a new transport and logistics platform should be built.
In the latitudinal direction, the platform will be composed of a cross-shaped high-speed railway Omsk-Krasnoyarsk / Tomsk-Novokuznetsk with a speed of 300 - 600 km / h, and high-speed highways penetrating the macroregion, as well as the connected shipping rivers between the Yenisei and the Ob (in particular, the Chulymsky high-latitude transport corridor ) as the basis of the future unified transport and energy water network of Russia in combination with the regional “small” system aviationaccompanied by mass aviation macroregion.
The organization of this platform should be the subject of design and strategic planning as a priority for Russian development.
It is indicative that the “Development scheme of high-speed rail transport of the Russian Federation up to 2030 of the year” proposed by Russian Railways ends in the South Urals, while in Chelyabinsk it clearly demonstrates that Siberia has been put out of the box.
This indicates the absence of a state-wide approach to transport development, which leads to the departmental incorporation of high-speed transport into existing flows beyond the understanding of the need to create a planetary center for new industrialization in Russia and beyond ideas about the future of Siberia.
An important component of the platform can be a high-latitude highway, built on the principles of trolley and string transports and duplicating the Northern Sea Route on land, as a kind of parallel Sevsukhput.
An organic link in the new transport platform will be the long-planned Northern Latitudinal Road or the North-Siberian Railway, Sevsib, with the foundation from Tomsk to Surgut (Khanty-Mansiysk).
On the basis of this platform in the meridional direction around approximately 70º longitude to connect the Northern and Southern Sea Routes, as well as for structuring the common market of the New Middle East, it would be advisable to build a Trans-Asian development corridor (belt) (see fig. On page 16), which canals , energy and transport highways will connect the north of Western Siberia with Central Asia, the Arctic with the Indian Ocean.
The Trans-Asian development corridor may well become our Eurasian “Panamanian” (or soon “Nicaraguan”) channel - only the land - and act as an infrastructure bond of the emerging New Middle East.
The transport and logistics infrastructure platform created at the intersection of the latitudinal and meridional development corridors is designed to unite all modern infrastructures and generate passenger, cargo, financial, informational and other flows, which together create unique conditions for the organization of a planetary center and global development.
Who will be the economic capital of the world?
Planning the organization of the economic center of the entire planet is an extremely ambitious super-task. However, it is no more difficult than the USSR Victory in the Great Patriotic War and not much more difficult than our breakthrough into space or the Soviet industrialization of 1930, the same phenomenal relocation of industry to the East in the terrible second half of 1941 of the year or the creation of a world scientific center around campuses in Siberia.
The question is in the will of the federal center and in the mobilization of the social and intellectual potential of Western Siberia.
Of exceptional importance is the fact that what city, even if today is small, wants to become the economic capital of the world?
The contest has actually begun, and History itself is conducting it.
In addition to the obvious and outstanding Omsk, Novosibirsk, Krasnoyarsk and Tomsk, Biysk, Yurgu, Novokuznetsk, Barnaul, Kemerovo, Abakan are already called as the future capital.
One of the solutions could be the construction as the capital and headquarters of a new industrialization of a completely new city in a new place or near an existing one - a beautiful example is the beautiful Astana, which has already turned 15 years.
If it was impossible to transfer the capital of Russia from Moscow to the Far East, to the Amur Region, the new capital of Siberia would make sense for the first time to also make the capital of Russia.
The new capital city will become not only the organizing center of the new Russian development and the integral mechanism of a positive change of elites, but also a symbol of Russia's geopolitical power.
The organization of the capital involves three stages.
First comes the self-determination of the city authorities and the public. Then - the development of a consolidated position at the level of the subject of the Federation with subsequent lobbying at the level of the federal center. At the third stage, the city-headquarters of the new industrialization is created.
Sibstream - new linear city along the 2.0 Transsib
As a space of geo-cultural and economic prosperity on a solid infrastructure platform and around a high-speed railway, it is advisable to build the original linear city of Omsk-Novosibirsk-Krasnoyarsk - the city of Sibstream, developed by a team led by Academician Ilya Georgievich Lezhavy.
Around the Sibstream, in convenient places for this, one should not only increase the linear urban “fabric”, but also make a massive reconstruction of the existing and construction of new “traditional” (“spotted”) cities - all types of policies: technopolises, university cities, agropolises, science cities, industrial , as well as recreational, spa, tourist and, conversely, protected.
Such a single stretched megacities can act as an alternative to megapolis urbanization and not only does not allow, but also directly requires a low-rise urban estate-landscape, which should be exemplary for all of Russia and will allow to form a distributed but consolidated and unified community of leaders and specialists of development class. To attract the best specialists from all regions of Russia and accelerate the formation of this class of development in the region, it is advisable to build up to a million free homesteads, increasing the number of inhabitants in the region to 2030-12 million by 14.
Due to the fact that the transport carrier of the Sibstream will be a high-speed railway along the Trans-Siberian Railway, the implementation of this project will also become an important launching mechanism for modernizing the Trans-Siberian Railway and creating the Trans-Siberian Railway 2.0.
The creation of the Sibstream will also allow the development and implementation of a Russian urban planning doctrine based on targeted planning of economic and demographic development around new philosophies and systems or, according to I.G. Lezhave, "channels" of resettlement.
Iranian-Russian Siberian Economic Bridge
An important element of the infrastructure of the bridgehead and stimulate the creation of the New Middle East with the center in the south of Western Siberia will be the organization of the Iranian-Russian Siberian economic bridge. This “bridge” can already be filled with a dozen strategic investment projects (CIPs), such as Vitamin Bridge, Oil for Gasoline, High Speed Caspian and others.
The Iranian-Russian Siberian economic bridge will territorially “pass” through Astrakhan, both the outpost of Russian-Iranian cooperation and the most important entry point into the New Middle East through the Caspian Sea, and the ports and railways and highways of Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan.
At the same time, Astrakhan will receive dizzying opportunities for development and will strengthen its role as a unique “key” to the emerging macro-region.
New Middle East.
An important reinforcement of such a bridge could be the construction by Iran, together with Russia, of a canal that would connect the Caspian Sea with the Persian Gulf and significantly reduce Russia's critical dependence on the Turkish Bosporus and Dardanelles.
A channel of length 600 km and a cost of 7 billion will begin in the region of the Kyzylusen river delta, which flows into the Caspian Sea. Further, the channel is partially laid through the channel of the same river, closer to the south - along the channel of Kerkhe with access to the mouth of the navigable Karun river near the city of Khorramshahr.
It is significant that negotiations on the construction of this channel took place between the USSR and Iran at the beginning of the 1960s. It is time to resume interrupted dialogue and joint strategic planning.
Rampage, new relocation and resettlement
The new neo-industrial mission of the South of Western Siberia will require the folding of a new community and the general growth of the population in the region. If you rely on the old-time and permanent population of the region as a base for development, additional human resources will be required.
One of the obvious resources of a targeted influx of additional population is the organization of the resettlement of Moscow and the Moscow metropolitan region as a whole, a kind of directional “razoskvichivanie.” This will not only save Moscow's overpopulated and swelling cancer growth, but also allow the creation of a new center of internal migration in the Russian Federation, which will create a tremendous dynamism of Russian life.
In organizational terms, it will be necessary to extend the State program to assist voluntary resettlement to the Russian Federation of compatriots living abroad, in addition to all Russian citizens wishing to participate in the creation of a planetary center for new industrialization in the South of Western Siberia.
New tertiary industrialization necessarily requires a fundamentally different demographic model, based on a large three-four-family family, and a consumer society that opposes the standards and cultivates small children and even childlessness, child-free, based on the pseudo-scientific concept of the demographic transition.
A large family as a new Russian standard is necessary not only to overcome a national demographic catastrophe, but also as the most important demographic resource of explosive economic development.
Stimulating the formation of a new model should lead to the fact that along with innovative waves of tertiary industrialization from the South of Western Siberia, new socio-cultural demographic attitudes throughout Russia will be replicated.
Eurasian Union begins in Siberia
The declarations on the construction of the Eurasian Union will be transferred to the practical plane when Russia offers the states of Eurasia the full range of their industrializations and a cardinal rise in the level and quality of life.
This means that without the creation of a powerful center of new industrialization in the Russian Federation, the task of building the Eurasian Union is fundamentally unattainable - regardless of the military-political and other components.
At the same time, Central Asia is an absolutely priority area for building the Union, without which economic integration and the creation of a promising common market for the New Middle East, Ukraine will never enter the Customs Union and the SES, since the state of integration of Russia and Central Asia is a criterion for geopolitical decisions of Ukraine.
Contrary to popular opinions and directed propaganda, the salvation of Moscow and Russia is not in the final separation, but, on the contrary, in reintegration with Central Asia, moreover, integration with South Asia - the Middle East, including not only Iran and Pakistan, but also Afghanistan. .
Our Central Asia is not just not a stranger to Russians and Russia, but, on the contrary, that wonderful Land, where the salvation of Russia will come from - this is what the Reverend Sebastian of Karaganda, a Russian priest, asserted, served in Karlag (Kazakhstan) and decided to stay to live in Karaganda.
Central Asia and the New Middle East are the key to the Eurasian Union.
Siberia is the center and the beginning of the Eurasian Union.
At the first stage, a community should be formed to create in the South of Western Siberia a planetary center for new industrialization and development. The community's working method is to simultaneously develop the strategy of the South of Western Siberia as a geo-economic planetary center for the construction of a New Middle East and a range of strategic investment projects (CIP).
One of the key tools could be the Russian Government’s Russian-American cooperation corporation with Central Asian states (Central Asia Development Corporation), whose headquarters could be both in Siberia and Central Asia.
Also, in the future economic capital of the world - that is, in the city of the region that wants to become one - it is advisable to create the Institute of New Industrialization in a proactive way, which will produce design and analytical knowledge to implement the proposed strategic program.
Invitation to cooperate
Who is this report written for?
First of all, we appeal to the class of development — the thinnest layer emerging in Russia and the world — to those truly creative people who, in different spheres and regions of Eurasia, have their own “types” —development projects and strategic investment projects — and who are ready for elaboration and implementation of a strategic program for the transformation of the south of Western Siberia into a planetary center of industrialization and a new Central Russia.
There is no future - we do it ourselves.
Authors of the report:
Yury Krupnov, Development Manager
Guzel Maitdinova, Dmitry Verkhoturov, Ivan Melnik, Alexander Palagin, Dmitry Panyukov, Alexander Petrushin, Yuri Tsarik, Oleg Tsymbal, Denis Puryzhinsky