The collection of signatures for the removal from power of the Egyptian President Mohammed Mursi can be considered as the prologue of the civil war. In fact, in the Arab Republic of Egypt (ARE), the split into supporters (Islamists) and opponents of Mursi, which personifies the course of Islamizing the country, was finally formed.
The situation in Egypt, which has continued to deteriorate since the beginning of the revolution and the resignation of Hosni Mubarak in 2011, has reached a new break point. After the resignation of Mubarak, a temporary military dictatorship was established, which kept the country from complete chaos, then the power passed to the candidate from the Islamization of Egypt - Mursi. Now the revolution is returning to the starting point: once again mass protests, hundreds of injured, there are already dead. The question is how Mursi will act - decide on forceful confrontation (Mubarak did not dare, capitulated), provided the military is ready to stop the bloodshed and take power into their own hands, or leave voluntarily and again a military dictatorship will be established. Another question is what supporters of the Islamization of Egypt will undertake in such a situation - will they start an uprising or will they reconcile and try again to gain power by legitimate means? In the event of an uprising, there is the likelihood of the defeat of the military and the final fall of Egypt into turmoil. The question is how the world community will react if the Egyptian military will calm the country with “blood and iron”?
It must be remembered that Egypt is a key country in the Middle East. Having finally thrown 85 million into a country of chaos, Western strategists will make the process of destabilization of a huge region - from Central Africa to the borders of the EU, Russia, China and India - irreversible. A lot of blood in the Middle East, a kind of sacrifice, should lead to the birth of some political organization that will play the role of Hitler's Germany in Europe in the 1930-1940-s. Muslim world pumped up weaponsBy hating “infidels,” thousands of fighters gain combat experience in Libya, Mali, Sudan, Syria, and Afghanistan. The masters of the Western world again, as before the First and Second World Wars (then this role was played by Germany and Japan), purposefully create a hotbed of world war. Now his role should be played by the Muslim world. We see how the world is rapidly approaching a new big war.
The main tasks that must be solved by a new world war are several:
1) The United States must remain an "island of stability" and make a technological leap into the future during the world war, leaving all competitors in the past. Along the way, the issue with debt will be resolved. Let me remind you that following the results of the First World War, the United States from the debtor of the world became a creditor. The United States will save the population, the territory will not suffer from the fighting.
2) The main competitors of the United States - Russia, China, India, the Muslim world and continental Europe, will be seriously affected. The extent of the losses depends on the scenario of the development of world war — from complete destruction and the collapse of the leading civilization states to huge losses that will not allow them to maintain parity with the United States, internal autonomy.
3) The complete destruction of the Muslim world, which will be a hotbed of war and will suffer maximum losses. Islam will be completely discredited, put on a par with Hitler's Nazism. The region will suffer huge economic, infrastructural and human losses.
4) A serious reduction in the human population, as Western thinkers have long dreamed of.
5) The masters of the West will crush the main competitors on the planet and will have the opportunity to implement the project of the New World Order, which could not be built after the First and Second World Wars. The essence of this project is the total power of a small group of people who have access to the latest achievements in the field of biotechnology, which will turn them into "long-lived" over all of humanity. This is a kind of slave civilization, but with the latest technology.
I must say that Egypt has matured to the transition of the revolution to a new stage, with mass casualties, where the old troubles will seem like flowers. In ideological terms, the masses are disappointed, there was a collapse of the revolutionary hopes that with the elimination of the Mubarak regime and the change of power, life will become better. The Islamists have not had any intelligible program of action to bring the country out of crisis, and they do not have it. The catastrophic situation in the field of economics. The country is a socio-economic bankrupt. Increasingly difficult to feed the rapidly growing population. Egypt has nothing to offer the world, Egypt does not have large reserves of oil, gas and other strategically important resources, and there is no one at the expense of which to give dissatisfied masses jobs. In addition, young people are corrupted by fairy tales about the beautiful life in the West, they don’t want to work hard and get enough, which is inevitable given the large population of Egypt and the insignificance of its resources.
The conflict over the water of the Nile is brewing with Ethiopia and other African states located in the upper reaches of the great river (Standing on the Nile. The battle for water begins in Africa). The Ethiopian parliament annulled the 1929 agreement on the sharing of the waters of the Nile with Egypt and Sudan, according to which most of the river flow went to Cairo and Khartoum. Moreover, Addis Ababa is building the largest hydroelectric station, which can limit the flow of water in Egypt. Ethiopia was supported by six more states of the Nile basin. In addition, plans for the construction of a large hydroelectric complex on the Nile are bearing up and South Sudan. Of the other current problems of Egypt is the growing pressure on the Coptic Christians, the threat of genocide on religious grounds; the rise of the terrorist threat and separatism in Sinai; the aspiration of the cities of the Suez Canal to autonomy. Over Egypt rises the shadow of the collapse. Islamists, or the military, if military dictatorship is established, it is necessary to solve two main tasks: 1) destroy the project of Ethiopia (possibly in other countries) in order to save the country from possible crop failure and mass starvation; 2) to seize the oil and gas fields and the underground sea of fresh water in the already half-decomposed and sparsely populated neighboring Libya. Otherwise, modern Egypt will perish in a bloody inner turmoil.
The current situation
The representative of the movement "Tamarrud" Mahmoud Badr said that more than 22,1 million signatures have already been collected under a petition calling for the resignation of Egyptian President Mursi. For comparison, in June 2012 of the year in the presidential election 13,2 million people voted for Muhammad Mursi.
29 June The Egyptian military evacuated the president and his family from the Cairo palace to a safe place to prevent a crisis situation during the mass anti-government demonstrations planned for June 30. Prior to the evacuation of the presidential palace "Ittihadia" in Cairo was further strengthened, its protection strengthened units of the Egyptian National Guard. Guardsmen were ordered to defend the object, and are armed not only with small arms, but also armored vehicles. The Republican Guard and the police are mobilized, all vacations and layoffs are canceled, and an increased level of readiness is introduced.
The first clashes between the opposition and supporters of the Egyptian president have already occurred. In Alexandria, riots occurred at the headquarters of the Muslim Brotherhood - dozens of people were injured, one was killed. In the port city of Port Said on Al-Masala Square, where thousands of opponents of Mursi gathered, an explosion thundered - one person and several injured. 26 June in the city of Al-Mansur, there was a clash between supporters and opponents of the president - one person was killed and more than 200 were injured. 28 June in Alexandria during the riots killed a US citizen.
Washington recommended its citizens to refrain from traveling to Egypt as much as possible and allowed some of the staff of the American Embassy to leave the country. The Russian Federal Agency for Tourism recommended that citizens of the Russian Federation not leave the resort areas. Egypt and the citizens of a number of Arab states, Qatar, Kuwait, the United Arab Emirates and Oman, are in a hurry to leave here.
The Egyptian military promised to prevent mass bloodshed and pulled troops into Cairo, Alexandria and the Suez Canal area. The country's defense minister, Fattah al-Sisi, reassuring the public, said that the armed forces would not allow "the slide of the situation to street confrontation and bloodshed." The head of the defense department promised that in case of a threat the army would immediately intervene in the conflict. In addition, representatives of the movement “Muslim Brotherhood” and other Islamist organizations expressed readiness to stand up for the president.
27 June, the Egyptian president addressed the people, in which Mursi admitted the mistakes made and promised new reforms, including constitutional ones. The Basic Law of Egypt, adopted in December 2012 of the year, established the priority of the Islamic code in the state. At the same time, the new constitution was unhappy, both supporters of the secular state and Islamists. The opposition believes that the constitution is not liberal enough, and supporters of the Islamization of the state, consider the document too secular. In his address, Mursi also proposed the creation of a “committee on national reconciliation,” which would include representatives of all political parties and movements, recognized religions, military, non-governmental organizations. However, “national reconciliation” did not work out, as early as on the day of the president’s address, mass clashes began.
30 June thousands of people gathered in Tahrir Square, they are demanding the resignation of the president. Many protesters came to the square on Saturday evening and spent the whole night on it. Participants in the thousands of demonstrations waving red cards that symbolize the main requirement - the resignation of Mursi. Islamists are also holding a rally. They have traditionally gathered at the Rabia Adviyya mosque, located in the Madinat Nasr district. Many were delivered on specially allocated buses. According to the press, a part of the Islamists are armed with sticks and have protective weapons.
A report was passed about the arrest of a group of presidential supporters, they were heading to the capital, being armed with firearms, iron rods and body armor. The detainees are members of the Al-Gamaa al-Islamiya movement. One of the leaders of this movement has already declared its readiness to raise 800 thousand people "in the event of a threat to a lawfully elected president." Al-Gamaa is known for having waged war against the authorities in 1980-1990, it was the organizer of the assassination of President Anwar Sadat and the slaughter of Luxor in 1997, when 58 tourists were killed. After the 2011 revolution, members of this movement who were sentenced to prison received freedom. The organization registered its own party, “Creation and Development”, and Islamists legally entered the parliament.
As expected, the rallies soon turned into clashes and robberies. According to media reports, the demonstrators routed and set fire to several offices of the Muslim Brotherhood party in the area of Al-Mansoura and Tanta. The party’s representation in Beni Sueife was also destroyed. Dozens of people were injured. In Cairo, one of the museums attacked, dozens of exhibits stolen. Egyptian Museum taken under heavy guard.
The Egyptian police was in a difficult situation, there is no strength to resist such a large-scale protest. Therefore, there are already reports that Egyptian flags are being installed on some company vehicles as a sign of solidarity with the opposition. Many police officers announced that they were moving to the side of the protesters.
In such a difficult situation, the chances of holding on to Mohammed Mursi are few. US escalation is beneficial conflict. They reduce their apparent presence in the region. The example of Mubarak, who was a clear ally of Washington, strongly shows that one cannot count on the United States. And Mursi is not even an ally of the United States. External support in the face of the former Emir of Qatar has disappeared, and it is not known how the new chapter will behave. There is no trust and support from the old administrative apparatus formed under Mubarak. The military elite of Islamist power is also not happy. But there are chances to stay with Mursi, since the opposition has no bright leaders, a well-thought-out program, their protest is not constructive. If the opposition gets power, it will not be able to solve the problems of the country.
In such an impasse, the transition of power to the military is quite possible. The likelihood of the introduction of military control is very high. Having a reason for intervention - mass clashes and a large number of victims, when the power of Mursi finally discredits itself, the military can take power into their own hands. But this will not solve the country's problems, it will only postpone their solution for some time, it will freeze the situation.